tubaallen said:
But according to the post, they only plan on 21 cars in 2 years. That's only two consists (or maybe 3 if you stretch). We could easily derail three trains in two years. So, while I agree that two cars is better than none...I am still concerned that in the long-run it won't help as much as more cars would.
Tubballen,
First let's start with the hope that they won't derail any trains in the next two years.
I realize that may be unrealistic, but we can hope. Additionally we can hope that if a train does go on the ground, that damage is minimal.
Now coming back to the numbers, you are thinking in terms of how many cars make up a train only. The juggling act that Amtrak is playing, isn’t so much that they need say, 8 cars or 10 cars for a particular trains’ consist. Amtrak’s problem is that they need particular types of cars.
From what I recall, when the Capital went to ground last summer it left Amtrak just short of the number of cars it needed to run all trains. I’m not positive which was most critical, but it was either the lost sleepers or the dining car that was the final straw. It wasn’t a lack of coaches however, that lead to the Cardinal ‘s need to go single level.
I believe that Amtrak currently has enough Superliner coaches to go around. Especially since they will never return to the K-Card now, thanks to its demise, plus some of the short haul routes out of Chicago have lost their Superliner equipment. To my knowledge Amtrak’s biggest shortages are in sleeping cars and diners. Following that I believe are sightseer lounges and then transition dorms. Coaches are the least of Amtrak’s worries.
Now while I’m not privy to any inside numbers, I would tend to think that based upon current fleet availability repairing the right types of cars would make a big difference. Therefore, following the numbers in the article lets assume that Beach Grove can turn out another 8 cars this year. That’s half of the 20 cars the article says are planned over two years.
If BG can turn out 2 diners, 1 trans dorm, and 5 more sleepers (in addition to the two just released); then Amtrak would be working with a comfortable margin of cars. This would be true, even if one train were to go on the ground this summer. That would probably even be enough to restore the Cardinal to Superliner equipment, unless Amtrak were to decide that they’d rather have more spare equipment available for maintenance rotations and problems.
Now next year, have BG turn out 1 sightseer lounge, 2 diners, 1 trans dorm, and 6 more sleepers. Assuming that Amtrak doesn’t loose more than 5 cars to new derailments during the next two years, and they would be sitting pretty comfortably.
Again I’m just kind of guessing at the actual numbers for each type of car, but this gives you an idea of the logistics Amtrak is facing. Additionally, it would be wonderful if Congress hands Amtrak an extra 500 Million either this year or next to help them turn out more cars faster. Regardless though of what Congress does, 20 of the right types of Superliner cars should hold Amtrak in good stead for the next few years.