Amtrak Guest Rewards 2.0 Coming January 2016

[BCL]

Fairer to which customers though? The vast majority of the country that has rarely benefited from AGR status, or the tiny percentage of the country who have always been the primary focus? The folks who live near a zone boundary could always buy a revenue coach seat to the boundary before starting their redemption. Which to be frank is a problem I'd love to have. I have no doubt that there will be new options and opportunities associated with this change, but traditionally major loyalty program changes have almost always come with new devaluations. In fact I cannot name even a single example of a substantial program change to a major program that was not also accompanied by a devaluation on or around the same time period.

You know, I'd like to see someone like Michael Lewis write something on travel loyalty programs. Perhaps he has bigger things to write about, but his work does kind of touch on the things that he's written about in the past - notably market inefficiencies and how markets have adjusted. How some here describe elaborate AGR redemptions reminds me of how Moneyball described number crunchers finding the value that others would ignore. Perhaps it's not quite as nuanced. We can all imagine the fixed redemption costs and search for the particular redemptions that maximize that redemption. However, it's still dealing with market inefficiencies - that there are discrete redemption levels, zone maps, blackout dates, minimum earning, premium routes (Acela), etc. The same can be said for professional gamblers who count cards or try to exploit some flaw that brings the odds in their favor.

However, if there's any adjustment to AGR policies, it's just the market trying to correct the known inefficiencies. I don't know if there's any ideal solution, but many seem to understand that they knew the system was broken, but are just sad that the changes might come at time when it's too late to take advantage of the systems inefficiencies.

 

[yarrow]

Fairer to which customers though? The vast majority of the country that has rarely benefited from AGR status, or the tiny percentage of the country who have always been the primary focus? The folks who live near a zone boundary could always buy a revenue coach seat to the boundary before starting their redemption. Which to be frank is a problem I'd love to have. I have no doubt that there will be new options and opportunities associated with this change, but traditionally major loyalty program changes have almost always come with new devaluations. In fact I cannot name even a single example of a substantial program change to a major program that was not also accompanied by a devaluation on or around the same time period.

However, if there's any adjustment to AGR policies, it's just the market trying to correct the known inefficiencies. I don't know if there's any ideal solution, but many seem to understand that they knew the system was broken, but are just sad that the changes might come at time when it's too late to take advantage of the systems inefficiencies.

we will just have to find the "inefficiencies" in the new system. i take it as a challenge

 

[ronkstevens]

I think that a change away from zone redemption will be a good thing. Not only a benefit to those that frequently travel across zone boundaries, it takes away the 1300 mile one zone/900 mile two zone situation that exists now. I'll wait and see when the announcement comes out.

 

[Rail Freak]

Yeah, I'm on " Pause " till further info comes out!!!

 

[BCL]

I think that a change away from zone redemption will be a good thing. Not only a benefit to those that frequently travel across zone boundaries, it takes away the 1300 mile one zone/900 mile two zone situation that exists now. I'll wait and see when the announcement comes out.

I tried to find the shortest two zone trip. I didn't look particularly hard, but the closest stations on either side of Denver were the first thing I thought should be fairly close. That's Fraser, CO to Fort Morgan, CO. Departing Tuesday it's $35 value fare. As a two zone redemption it's 8000 points. Driving distance is listed as 148 miles, but the train goes a different (and I suspect more direct) way.

Train:

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Fraser-Winter+Park+Amtrak/Amtrak+Station+FMG,+113+Ensign+St,+Fort+Morgan,+CO+80701/@39.9960928,-105.9949314,8z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x876a337d5495da5d:0x1c8afca42d2e34ca!2m2!1d-105.817388!2d39.947566!1m5!1m1!1s0x876deedede244af5:0xe6c3d3994ac2202e!2m2!1d-103.8028228!2d40.2471082!3e3

Car:

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Fraser-Winter+Park+Amtrak/Amtrak+Station+FMG,+113+Ensign+St,+Fort+Morgan,+CO+80701/@39.9686589,-105.885744,8z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x876a337d5495da5d:0x1c8afca42d2e34ca!2m2!1d-105.817388!2d39.947566!1m5!1m1!1s0x876deedede244af5:0xe6c3d3994ac2202e!2m2!1d-103.8028228!2d40.2471082!3e0

I could see them keeping the 1500 point redemption for special routes. Those routes seem to be state subsidized services that are rarely full. However, it could be they're rejiggering redemption costs considering different earning numbers. I suppose they could make a point worth "more" if they reduce/remove minimum points. Yeah - I did feel kind of strange when I spend $52 on a trip and got 102 points, but later spend $1 on a bus ride (that's what it said) and got 100 points.

 

[rrdude]

This topic is not "interesting enuff" for any any writer, who is also not a foamer, to write about, Any who, I just burned 66,500 of my points for a June trip next year.............

Several thousand more to burn, and i'm done.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

we will just have to find the "inefficiencies" in the new system. i take it as a challenge

That should be quite a challenge indeed.

Revenue based loyalty programs remove inefficiencies by tying points earning and redemption options to the same yield management process as revenue tickets. Inefficiencies in the current AGR system are both predictable and repeatable. I can tell you about a favorable redemption today and it would remain in effect next week/month/year when you're ready to book it, right up to the very last seat.

With a revenue based program your primary opportunity for a substantial discount will be due to some sort of mistake. Unfortunately mistake fares generally only last from several minutes to a few hours. Maybe you'll be lucky enough to be booking a trip at the exact moment the mistake fare occurs but I wouldn't count on it. Even if you did manage to find a substantial discount it's unlikely you'd be able to repeat it later or predict the next one.

 

[BCL]

we will just have to find the "inefficiencies" in the new system. i take it as a challenge

That should be quite a challenge indeed.

Revenue based loyalty programs remove inefficiencies by tying points earning and redemption options to the same yield management process as revenue tickets. Inefficiencies in the current AGR system are both predictable and repeatable. I can tell you about a favorable redemption today and it would remain in effect next week/month/year when you're ready to book it, right up to the very last seat.

With a revenue based program your primary opportunity for a substantial discount will be due to some sort of mistake. Unfortunately mistake fares generally only last from several minutes to a few hours. Maybe you'll be lucky enough to be booking a trip at the exact moment the mistake fare occurs but I wouldn't count on it. Even if you did manage to find a substantial discount it's unlikely you'd be able to repeat it later or predict the next one.

Have there really been that many mistake fares on Amtrak? I certainly understand fat finger fares from airlines, but Amtrak fares don't really seem to be all that variable beyond buckets or maybe mistakes during fare increases.

I don't know if maybe Amtrak will go to something like an airline model. Some frequent flyer plans used to have limits on the number of passengers per flight on award tickets, and members would complain mightily that they couldn't get that award ticket to Hawaii. That might be a little bit harder to quantify with Amtrak given all the possibilities for overlapping routes that can be taken. I did find it odd reading here, where some talked about parting with AGR points instead of paying high bucket. I suppose that was taking advantage of a certain inefficiency, and where it meant getting the most value for the points relative to the retail fare.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

we will just have to find the "inefficiencies" in the new system. i take it as a challenge

That should be quite a challenge indeed.

Revenue based loyalty programs remove inefficiencies by tying points earning and redemption options to the same yield management process as revenue tickets. Inefficiencies in the current AGR system are both predictable and repeatable. I can tell you about a favorable redemption today and it would remain in effect next week/month/year when you're ready to book it, right up to the very last seat.

With a revenue based program your primary opportunity for a substantial discount will be due to some sort of mistake. Unfortunately mistake fares generally only last from several minutes to a few hours. Maybe you'll be lucky enough to be booking a trip at the exact moment the mistake fare occurs but I wouldn't count on it. Even if you did manage to find a substantial discount it's unlikely you'd be able to repeat it later or predict the next one.

Have there really been that many mistake fares on Amtrak? I certainly understand fat finger fares from airlines, but Amtrak fares don't really seem to be all that variable beyond buckets or maybe mistakes during fare increases.

In this context when I say "mistake fare" I'm referring to situations where Amtrak have priced the last available roomette at the lowest possible bucket or have priced a full bedroom below a roomette fare on the same train. Those are situations I've actually seen before. I have never seen anything from Amtrak that approaches the sort of mistake fares airlines sometimes offer where the fare is so low that it's almost laughable. Even if Amtrak did make a major mistake I don't believe they'd fall under the same regulations as the airlines and could simply refund any ticketed fares without needing to honor them.

 

[rrdude]

End of next June. 60K points, for Coast Starlight from Klamath Falls to Sacramento, Zephyr from Sacramento to Chicago, Cardinal from Chicago to Baltimore, Penn.

Bedrooms the whole way. My only real concern is the CZ-Cardinal connection in Chicago.

Two of us traveling, retail fare is $3,119, that's a pretty decent return on the AGR points, IMHO.

Also burning some on SPECIAL ROUTE 'tween San Diego, and Irvine, California.

Ha, won't I be feeling the fool, if the new AGR 2.0 is MORE BENEFICIAL to those of us with points in the bank. (Hey, it could happen!)

 

[PRR 60]

End of next June. 60K points, for Coast Starlight from Klamath Falls to Sacramento, Zephyr from Sacramento to Chicago, Cardinal from Chicago to Baltimore, Penn.

Bedrooms the whole way. My only real concern is the CZ-Cardinal connection in Chicago.

Two of us traveling, retail fare is $3,119, that's a pretty decent return on the AGR points, IMHO.

Also burning some on SPECIAL ROUTE 'tween San Diego, and Irvine, California.

Ha, won't I be feeling the fool, if the new AGR 2.0 is MORE BENEFICIAL to those of us with points in the bank. (Hey, it could happen!)

If the new program is more beneficial, you can always cancel and rebook. With the current liberal AGR cancelation policy, there is no downside to booking now and locking in today's redemption rates.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Two of us traveling, retail fare is $3,119, that's a pretty decent return on the AGR points, IMHO.

It will be interesting to see if Amtrak's $3,000+ cross country fares hold up in an AGR2 world. I wonder which type of customer has the right combination of low expectations and careless spending to make that look like a good value. If it was a private varnish trip with fancy rooms and quality meals I'd understand, but spending that much on a dilapidated fiberglass compartment with meals that struggle to reach Denny's quality is damn near incomprehensible to me.

Ha, won't I be feeling the fool, if the new AGR 2.0 is MORE BENEFICIAL to those of us with points in the bank. (Hey, it could happen!)

There is no reason whatsoever to feel foolish for taking the bet that pays dividends 99% of the time.

 

[me_little_me]

If anyone has points to burn, I'm not too shy to ask that you "point" me a bedroom ticket from Atlanta to El Paso round trip. Only 25K each way. :giggle: :giggle:

 

[BCL]

Of course we know the issue for Amtrak. It's always a similar issue that we see with flat pricing. You "paid" for it and want to get the most value. Many people have a tendency to overeat at buffets. I have had "all you can order" meals with a one hour limit, and that's sort of where AGR is with zones, in that everything is basically shoehorned into the zones.

Also, the tendency seems to be to use up points on LD trips, and having been on a few LD trains, seats tend to be at a premium. I said I suspected that special routes are lower redemption because they're shorter, generally state subsidized routes, and (for the most part) aren't near capacity. I'm really hoping they have something that still has special routes. I've been thinking of just doing a silly overnight round trip to San Diego. Seems like a killer deal if I can burn 3000 points on this.

 

[Anderson]

we will just have to find the "inefficiencies" in the new system. i take it as a challenge

That should be quite a challenge indeed.

Revenue based loyalty programs remove inefficiencies by tying points earning and redemption options to the same yield management process as revenue tickets. Inefficiencies in the current AGR system are both predictable and repeatable. I can tell you about a favorable redemption today and it would remain in effect next week/month/year when you're ready to book it, right up to the very last seat.

With a revenue based program your primary opportunity for a substantial discount will be due to some sort of mistake. Unfortunately mistake fares generally only last from several minutes to a few hours. Maybe you'll be lucky enough to be booking a trip at the exact moment the mistake fare occurs but I wouldn't count on it. Even if you did manage to find a substantial discount it's unlikely you'd be able to repeat it later or predict the next one.

Have there really been that many mistake fares on Amtrak? I certainly understand fat finger fares from airlines, but Amtrak fares don't really seem to be all that variable beyond buckets or maybe mistakes during fare increases.

In this context when I say "mistake fare" I'm referring to situations where Amtrak have priced the last available roomette at the lowest possible bucket or have priced a full bedroom below a roomette fare on the same train. Those are situations I've actually seen before. I have never seen anything from Amtrak that approaches the sort of mistake fares airlines sometimes offer where the fare is so low that it's almost laughable. Even if Amtrak did make a major mistake I don't believe they'd fall under the same regulations as the airlines and could simply refund any ticketed fares without needing to honor them.

In general, those tend to be situations where something funky is going on with inventory (e.g. roomettes are almost full but there are a bunch of bedrooms available). There's also "Stupid Roomette Tricks", but that usually works off of either (1) Amtrak trying to move space rather than letting it spoil, (2) space being sold out further down the line and Amtrak trying to reap a "second sale", or (3) really high pricing on coach tickets overwhelming the room charges.

===== ===== ===== ===== =====

I thought through "Why do I do AGR?" over the last day or so, and I think there is one key, highly underrated benefit of it: Capping off the price of most trips predictably. Basically, right now I can afford to do anything I want within the Amtrak system (within reason, at least). Particularly at Select Executive (and for someone who's not on the Acela...or indeed Regionals...enough to make the endless slew of upgrade cards as worthwhile), that (plus the bonus points) is worth it.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

In this context when I say "mistake fare" I'm referring to situations where Amtrak have priced the last available roomette at the lowest possible bucket or have priced a full bedroom below a roomette fare on the same train. Those are situations I've actually seen before. I have never seen anything from Amtrak that approaches the sort of mistake fares airlines sometimes offer where the fare is so low that it's almost laughable. Even if Amtrak did make a major mistake I don't believe they'd fall under the same regulations as the airlines and could simply refund any ticketed fares without needing to honor them.

In general, those tend to be situations where something funky is going on with inventory (e.g. roomettes are almost full but there are a bunch of bedrooms available). There's also "Stupid Roomette Tricks", but that usually works off of either (1) Amtrak trying to move space rather than letting it spoil, (2) space being sold out further down the line and Amtrak trying to reap a "second sale", or (3) really high pricing on coach tickets overwhelming the room charges.

If it's not a mistake can you explain to me how intentionally pricing a roomette higher than a bedroom in the exact same car on the exact same train with the exact same rules benefits Amtrak?

 

[yarrow]

we will just have to find the "inefficiencies" in the new system. i take it as a challenge

That should be quite a challenge indeed.

Revenue based loyalty programs remove inefficiencies by tying points earning and redemption options to the same yield management process as revenue tickets. Inefficiencies in the current AGR system are both predictable and repeatable. I can tell you about a favorable redemption today and it would remain in effect next week/month/year when you're ready to book it, right up to the very last seat.

With a revenue based program your primary opportunity for a substantial discount will be due to some sort of mistake. Unfortunately mistake fares generally only last from several minutes to a few hours. Maybe you'll be lucky enough to be booking a trip at the exact moment the mistake fare occurs but I wouldn't count on it. Even if you did manage to find a substantial discount it's unlikely you'd be able to repeat it later or predict the next one.

it seems to me you are crediting amtrak management with an amount of intelligence i haven't seen consistently displayed in the past.

 

[jebr]

In this context when I say "mistake fare" I'm referring to situations where Amtrak have priced the last available roomette at the lowest possible bucket or have priced a full bedroom below a roomette fare on the same train. Those are situations I've actually seen before. I have never seen anything from Amtrak that approaches the sort of mistake fares airlines sometimes offer where the fare is so low that it's almost laughable. Even if Amtrak did make a major mistake I don't believe they'd fall under the same regulations as the airlines and could simply refund any ticketed fares without needing to honor them.

In general, those tend to be situations where something funky is going on with inventory (e.g. roomettes are almost full but there are a bunch of bedrooms available). There's also "Stupid Roomette Tricks", but that usually works off of either (1) Amtrak trying to move space rather than letting it spoil, (2) space being sold out further down the line and Amtrak trying to reap a "second sale", or (3) really high pricing on coach tickets overwhelming the room charges.

If it's not a mistake can you explain to me how intentionally pricing a roomette higher than a bedroom in the exact same car on the exact same train with the exact same rules benefits Amtrak?

If the customer is wanting to go to/from an intermediate point, and the bedroom has already been sold once (or more) on other segments, but the roomettes are still available for the full distance, it would make sense for Amtrak to push someone to the bedroom to fill the "empty space" that can only be filled within that limited market.

For example, let's say someone wants to go from MOT - MSP. Amtrak has 2 bedrooms available and 3 roomettes available. However, all the roomettes are open the full distance, as is one of the two bedrooms, but the other bedroom is already occupied from SEA - WTN and MSP - CHI. In this case, while Amtrak may be able to sell it at the full bedroom rate, it would make sense to try and push the customer to occupy that bedroom and keep the roomettes (and other bedroom) available for any city pair instead of limiting it with that one customer.

I'm not sold that the revenue management is that targeted, but it very well could be and it would make sense to do so.

 

[Anderson]

In this context when I say "mistake fare" I'm referring to situations where Amtrak have priced the last available roomette at the lowest possible bucket or have priced a full bedroom below a roomette fare on the same train. Those are situations I've actually seen before. I have never seen anything from Amtrak that approaches the sort of mistake fares airlines sometimes offer where the fare is so low that it's almost laughable. Even if Amtrak did make a major mistake I don't believe they'd fall under the same regulations as the airlines and could simply refund any ticketed fares without needing to honor them.

In general, those tend to be situations where something funky is going on with inventory (e.g. roomettes are almost full but there are a bunch of bedrooms available). There's also "Stupid Roomette Tricks", but that usually works off of either (1) Amtrak trying to move space rather than letting it spoil, (2) space being sold out further down the line and Amtrak trying to reap a "second sale", or (3) really high pricing on coach tickets overwhelming the room charges.

If it's not a mistake can you explain to me how intentionally pricing a roomette higher than a bedroom in the exact same car on the exact same train with the exact same rules benefits Amtrak?

If the customer is wanting to go to/from an intermediate point, and the bedroom has already been sold once (or more) on other segments, but the roomettes are still available for the full distance, it would make sense for Amtrak to push someone to the bedroom to fill the "empty space" that can only be filled within that limited market.

For example, let's say someone wants to go from MOT - MSP. Amtrak has 2 bedrooms available and 3 roomettes available. However, all the roomettes are open the full distance, as is one of the two bedrooms, but the other bedroom is already occupied from SEA - WTN and MSP - CHI. In this case, while Amtrak may be able to sell it at the full bedroom rate, it would make sense to try and push the customer to occupy that bedroom and keep the roomettes (and other bedroom) available for any city pair instead of limiting it with that one customer.

I'm not sold that the revenue management is that targeted, but it very well could be and it would make sense to do so.

This comes to mind. There's also the fact that Amtrak is likely banking on being able to sell those roomettes at the high price regardless, but that towards the last minute it might not be able to move the bedrooms (in substantial numbers).

Let us assume at some point that Amtrak expects to be able to sell an additional 8 roomettes and 3 bedrooms before departure. They have 6 roomettes and 6 bedrooms available. In such a case, Amtrak would probably rather kick someone who would otherwise buy a roomette into a bedroom at the roomette price so as to be able to sell the other roomettes to roomette customers (rather than locking the bedroom price high and, as a result, losing one or more sales). A good example is actually me: All else being equal, I probably won't pay for a bedroom on a long-distance trip...but if the roomettes are on the verge of being sold out, it might behoove Amtrak to comp me an upgrade to a bedroom from a roomette if the bedroom would go unsold but they can sell my roomette to another passenger.

 

[abcnews]

I know I have booked a bedroom at a very low price from Chicago to Cincinnati on the Cardinal. The reason was the bedroom was already booked eastbound from Cin to NYP. So in that case the bedroom from Chicago to Cincinnati was cheaper than roomette.

 

[cyferx]

I guess I am confused. I looked at the url document and it doesn't have any of this information and ends on page 28. Other than the flyertalk post, where is all this information coming from?

Depending on what is revealed about the new program at the end of the month(?), I will decide whether to continue in it or burn my points on some long distance sleeper trips.

It is a bit sad, but there might be benefits to it, such as not being locked into long hauls to make the most of the points, and not being forced into coach because three-zones is such a bad deal. Also you could focus on the real value of the points which is the upgrade rather than the underlying ride fare (i.e. coach).

 

[City of Miami]

I just made a 2 zone roomette redemption for October and got the 1K rebate from the credit card so that perk's still there for the moment.

cyferx - I believe I read those last pages of the original document had been redacted because it was an unofficial leak. It said, among other things, that the new program will be revealed to all members by email on August 31st. A corollary to the burn/not to burn question is when exactly the new rules go into effect - we know nothing about the timing which is critical.

I don't get your last sentence though - the part about the real value of the points being the 'upgrade' not the rail fare. Please explain.

 

[rrdude]

I guess I am confused. I looked at the url document and it doesn't have any of this information and ends on page 28. Other than the flyertalk post, where is all this information coming from?

Depending on what is revealed about the new program at the end of the month(?), I will decide whether to continue in it or burn my points on some long distance sleeper trips.

It is a bit sad, but there might be benefits to it, such as not being locked into long hauls to make the most of the points, and not being forced into coach because three-zones is such a bad deal. Also you could focus on the real value of the points which is the upgrade rather than the underlying ride fare (i.e. coach).

The document has, shall we say, been "amended". If you want a copy, I downloaded it, shoot me a PM with your email, and I'll shoot you a copy back. It's not really all that interesting for what it said, just a case of planned changes that leaked early.

 

[Notelvis]

It's been a nice run, but all good things must end.

I think that jebr is too optimistic about the future exchange rate. A five cents per point redemption rate won't work if you can buy points for less than that. Two cents per point seems more likely, or even lower. I think that we're looking at a major devaluation for sleeper redemptions, so I plan to use up my points under the old dispensation.

I imagine, though, that after I burn my points I will use Amtrak less. Late trains, increasingly decrepit Superliners, less choice in the dining car, inconsistent customer service (except for conductors, who are consistently rude), and now this devaluation make other modes of travel more tolerable to me. I'm sure that is fine with Amtrak. I've never been a particularly valuable customer.

I am feeling the same way.

Me too...... or me three.

I am contemplating an Atlanta-Philly trip using roomette in March. I'm guessing that I could go ahead and book that now for 15,000 points........ before the revamp rolls out.

 

[George K]

I am contemplating an Atlanta-Philly trip using roomette in March. I'm guessing that I could go ahead and book that now for 15,000 points........ before the revamp rolls out.

What's the possible downside? If you cancel, you should get your points back, right?