Bedroom Pricing...

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Amtrak could designate just one or two call center agents to "telemarket" unsold sleeping accommodations to coach pax starting two days prior. A no-brainer. Yes, the calls would need to highlight discounts. I bet they would be very successful on certain routes.
 
Amtrak could designate just one or two call center agents to "telemarket" unsold sleeping accommodations to coach pax starting two days prior. A no-brainer. Yes, the calls would need to highlight discounts. I bet they would be very successful on certain routes.
No phone calls. Emails. Cheaper and less likely to annoy folks (like me) who HATE to get marketing phone calls.
 
In my view Amtrak should include any reduced price sleeper offers as part of an upcoming trip reminder message using whatever means you've previously designated (call, text, email) for future travel updates.

When I delete my junk folder every few days...
Most junk folders auto-delete on a preset schedule unless it's a work address under a legal hold.
 
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I am glad to see this thread! I have been watching some rates for a couple of days now, via Amtrak app and also Amsnag (so happy I discovered that from someone's post in this forum!).

So my plan is to fly to LA, then take the Texas Eagle to Chicago and from there take the Cardinal to Philadelphia. Leaving on May 20th, I saw $907 for the complete Amtrak trip, 91 hours. I learned here that Texas Eagle is the most bang for the buck, the longest trainride for the price (the trip on SWC would be a day less and 3 meals less for the exact same price).

So, after I was so happy with all my research the other night, I wanted to show the results to my husband, and there was another rate (much higher) the next morning. Only hours after I had looked it all up.

Then, again a few hours later (yesterday), the price fell again to $907. Still a very high amount for me, but I thought I'll use the unexpected windfall of my stimulus money for that. I have to wait for it to come, though, that's why I haven't booked immediately.

So, today I am looking at a much higher rate again, even higher than the first jump. This is really frustrating.

I know it's weird, but I keep going back to check every few hours. Could that be a problem? Does the system know I am doing that? Strangely though, if I look up toasters online, I get bombarded with toaster ads for days afterwards, and they try to lure me with offers. But nothing like that happens with Amtrak. No offers, no ads popping up.

If my money comes during the upcoming week and the rates are in 4 digits, I will have to change my plans. I don't want to pay like $1300 for 70 hours. What I had looked up was 91 hours for $907. That's still high in my world, but it was the best rate I saw. What bucket is that? (I haven't really understood what the different buckets are and how you find them).
 
I am glad to see this thread! I have been watching some rates for a couple of days now, via Amtrak app and also Amsnag (so happy I discovered that from someone's post in this forum!).

So my plan is to fly to LA, then take the Texas Eagle to Chicago and from there take the Cardinal to Philadelphia. Leaving on May 20th, I saw $907 for the complete Amtrak trip, 91 hours. I learned here that Texas Eagle is the most bang for the buck, the longest trainride for the price (the trip on SWC would be a day less and 3 meals less for the exact same price).

So, after I was so happy with all my research the other night, I wanted to show the results to my husband, and there was another rate (much higher) the next morning. Only hours after I had looked it all up.

Then, again a few hours later (yesterday), the price fell again to $907. Still a very high amount for me, but I thought I'll use the unexpected windfall of my stimulus money for that. I have to wait for it to come, though, that's why I haven't booked immediately.

So, today I am looking at a much higher rate again, even higher than the first jump. This is really frustrating.

I know it's weird, but I keep going back to check every few hours. Could that be a problem? Does the system know I am doing that? Strangely though, if I look up toasters online, I get bombarded with toaster ads for days afterwards, and they try to lure me with offers. But nothing like that happens with Amtrak. No offers, no ads popping up.

If my money comes during the upcoming week and the rates are in 4 digits, I will have to change my plans. I don't want to pay like $1300 for 70 hours. What I had looked up was 91 hours for $907. That's still high in my world, but it was the best rate I saw. What bucket is that? (I haven't really understood what the different buckets are and how you find them).

The pricing is generally supply and demand. It is possible that a room was booked between the time you first looked and looked again. It is possible that, later, someone canceled a reservation and brought the fare down. I think fares are going to be going up and down in this uncertain time.

FYI, the country may not be "fully opened" by May 20th and there still may be "stay at home orders" in some of the locations you plan to visit.

Buckets are explained in this thread: Long Distance Train Coach & Sleeper Fares (Buckets)
 
The pricing is generally supply and demand. It is possible that a room was booked between the time you first looked and looked again. It is possible that, later, someone canceled a reservation and brought the fare down. I think fares are going to be going up and down in this uncertain time.

FYI, the country may not be "fully opened" by May 20th and there still may be "stay at home orders" in some of the locations you plan to visit.

Buckets are explained in this thread: Long Distance Train Coach & Sleeper Fares (Buckets)
The Auto Train sleeper bedroom prices were just cut in half for February 2021!
I just booked my NB trip, using AGR POINTS!!
1st Snow-Bird trip 2021, here we come!
I hope and pray that things are more normal by 2021🤞😀
 
A little deeper digging in my notes revealed this statement in Post #35...
"Make an estimate by multiplying the fares shown by a fraction that has the mileage for your portion of the route as the numerator and the mileage for the whole route (shown in blue) as the denominator. These estimates will be some amount less than actual - perhaps considerably less."
...was only partially correct. Based on fare data shown below from three years ago, the estimate obtained this way could also be less than actual.
TE Fare LinearitiesB.jpg
While the actual Roomette fare for one adult from DRT to LAX was actually $480 back then, the estimate using "whole fare times fraction of route covered"
method works out to $361. So what you would have paid back then was actually $119 or 33% more than the crude estimate. However, for a trip from BNL (only 124 miles out of CHI) to LAX the actual fare was $583 which is $167 or 22% less than the crude estimate of $750.

If fares were linear based on distance, they'd follow the thin black diagonal line. Fares to LAX shown in color above that line exceed the estimate and those below it are less than the estimate.

{Mods: somehow, instead of making this another post following #35 I ended up modifying it and in doing so eliminated the method for creating a tailor-made bucket chart for a partial route. Please restore the original #35, if possible. If not - no great loss.]
 
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We have found that Amtrak bedroom prices are not predictable. For instance; after tickets opened for sale on the Empire Builder they were fixed at high bucket for the first six months. The fare from CHI-GPK was $2067 ONE WAY! That was not workable so we played the waiting game. About 5 months out prices began to fluctuate and luckily one day the fare dropped to $749 so we booked that train for our August trip both ways. Next day it was back up. Rather than trying to explain a valid formula I will just say to watch the fares. IMO, fares can go up and down on a minutes notice as related to sales and the rate of sales.
 
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Moderators: Please delete Post #35. Data on the chart is probably no longer valid and this outdated data is of little or no interest. Made an attempt to update the data for the TE/SL but was unsuccessful due to several reasons. What fare data that was collected seemed to show the same price breaks on fares (with a maximum when departing from BNL, but fares seemed to become erratic after that point.

Because of that, I'm not really confident in any of it, so getting rid of it may be best thing to do. Sorry for the mess.
 
Finally managed to update the graph in Post #35:
TE SL Chopped Fares c.jpg
It shows $147 (24%) can be "saved" on a Roomette to LAX if departure is from BNL instead of CHI. A similar look at two other LD routes showed little or no "savings" such as this. But do recall hearing of significant "savings" when heading back to CHI on either the SL or SWC if departure is not from LAX but from a stop or two or three down the tracks.
 
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Congrats, you've re-invented 10 year old analysis.

A recent thread introduced the idea that traveling further on Amtrak could result in a cheaper roomette price than traveling a shorter distance. This piqued my interest, so I analyzed fares on the Crescent from four origin stations.

To do these analyses, I used AmSnag. It's a terrific tool for analyzing Amtrak fares if you're looking to make pretty charts or just save a few bucks on your next vacation. All of the ticket prices looked at are the low-bucket price only.

Coach fare (dark red line) is pretty straightforward. It's the low-bucket price from the origin to each station down the line.

Roomette fare (green line) is the roomette upcharge added to the coach fare. So essentially, it's the price if one person wanted to be in a roomette singly.

Bedroom fare (blue line) is the bedroom upcharge added to the coach fare. Essentially, it's the price if one person wanted to be in a bedroom alone.

Note: Only major stations are shown on the chart, but the analysis considered the fare from the origin to each other station on the Crescent.

First, let's look at low-bucket fares on the Crescent starting from New York (NYP):

5327875175_e6bb10c2a0.jpg


(larger image)

A few notes:

Generally, fares from New York act as we expect. Note that the lines start at ALX (Alexandria, Va.). This is because passengers cannot alight between New York and Washington, so fare data is not available. Beyond Alexandria, coach fares increase in a shallow step function as far as Anniston, Alabama, after which the fare ceases to increase.

However, what's most interesting is the roomette fare. Note that after ATL (Atlanta, Ga.) the roomette fee drops. That means that someone traveling from New York to Atlanta could buy a roomette ticket from New York to Anniston (and just get off in Atlanta) and save on the order of $50.

Because the roomette fare drops south of Atlanta (ATL), let's look there next:

5327875195_82f62ab3f1.jpg


(larger image)

The above chart should be read in two ways. Southbound trips start at Atlanta (where the lines have a gap) and go to the right. Northbound trips start at Atlanta and go to the left.

Fares for the portion of the Crescent south of Atlanta are much cheaper (in all three fare categories) than they are north of Atlanta. This is due primarily to the demand of the route, which is much stronger north of the Big Peach.

The most interesting piece of data, though, is for roomette and sleeper trips taken from Atlanta to any point south of Washington (including DC). For all of those destinations, the low-bucket bedroom is cheaper than the low-bucket roomette.

So what does Charlotte (CLT) look like?

5328485908_045df727df.jpg


(larger image)

Like Atlanta, the chart should be read starting from the center and moving outward.

Note that roomettes are more expensive in the low-bucket than bedrooms in the low-bucket for trips starting from Charlotte and ending between Atlanta and Washington (inclusive). There is a significant drop in the fare when one compares Charlotte -> Atlanta and Charlotte -> Anniston. Buying a trip from Charlotte to Anniston in a roomette and then just getting off in Atlanta would save a rider $106 over a ticket from Charlotte to Atlanta.

A similar phenomenon happens for destinations north of Washington, although with not as severe a drop.

One final chart, New Orleans (NOL):

5327875227_4b041d54f8.jpg


(larger image)

This chart should be read right to left. Trips start on the right at New Orleans, with longer trips moving further left across the graph.

Note that the lines representing coach, roomette, and bedroom are all roughly parallel from New Orleans to Atlanta. After Atlanta, all three see a steep increase, after which, all of the lines begin to diverge. This is because roomettes increase at a greater rate than coach, and bedrooms increase at a greater rate than roomettes, especially north of Washington.

Anyway, I hope all this is clear. I'll be happy to clarify anything that's not.
 
While most of what follows is based on low bucket Roomette fares for one adult, other sleepers may have the following pattern. The pattern is one of significant savings (defined arbitrarily as 10% or more of the fare for the entire route) realized when the trip starts at some station within about 100 track miles from either end point.

• Those routes having such savings are: TE/SL and CL from either end; CARD, CONO, EB and LSL to BOS, each from CHI
• Those routes with no such savings found at either end are: EB; CZ; LSL to and from NYP; SWC; CRES; SS; SM; SL and CS

One of the highest savings found approached 20% 30%. 25%
 
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While most of what follows is based on low bucket Roomette fares for one adult, other sleepers may have the following pattern. The pattern is one of significant savings (defined arbitrarily as 10% or more of the fare for the entire route) realized when the trip starts at some station within about 100 track miles from either end point.

• Those routes having such savings are: TE/SL and CL from either end; CARD, CONO, EB and LSL to BOS, each from CHI
• Those routes with no such savings found at either end are: CZ; LSL to and from NYP; SWC; CRES; SS; SM; SL and CS

A few of the highest saving found approached 20%
That sounds like good news for whenever my husband and I will finally be able to try the Texas Eagle (some years down the road), as the closest station to us is roughly 90 miles SW from CHI.
 
That sounds like good news . . .
Keep your fingers crossed the situation still exists whenever you decide to go.

FWIW, the maximum "savings" presently range from 24 to 28% of the full route price for one adult when departure is from either BNL, LCN or SPI instead of CHI. The dollar values range from $147 for a low bucket Roomette to $551 for a high bucket Bedroom. But PON and LCN don't offer checked baggage - only JOL, BNL and SPI.

Seems kind of funny you can save as much as 28% on a sleeper fare by skipping the first 5.5% (124 miles) of the whole trip. Love that funny stuff! :)
 
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Keep your fingers crossed the situation still exists whenever you decide to go.

FWIW, the maximum "savings" presently range from 24 to 28% of the full route price for one adult when departure is from either BNL, LCN or SPI instead of CHI. The dollar values range from $147 for a low bucket Roomette to $551 for a high bucket Bedroom. But PON and LCN don't offer checked baggage - only JOL, BNL and SPI.

Seems kind of funny you can save as much as 28% on a sleeper fare by skipping the first 5.5% (124 miles) of the whole trip. Love that funny stuff! :)
If we want to do checked luggage when the time comes, either JOL or BNL would be doable drives for us. If we think we can manage with just carry-ons at that point, PON would be the closest station. (And we have an adult son who could drop us off and pick us up, so no worries about long-term parking!)
 
For what it's worth, I checked a couple of legs of my now cancelled AGR redemption trip into August and beyond using Amsnag. While I see low-bucket fares for many days, there's still higher bucket fares out there, especially during the September & October fall color season.

My thinking is that somewhere along the way, Flynn will re-think the current bucket fares and drop them 10-15% across the board to get some people back on board once COVID-19 numbers are sufficiently low. THAT'S when I'll rebook my cancelled trips!
 
Please don't expect the route info in Post #42 to remain the same. After re-checking the data for the TE from CHI and finding it had not changed from yesterday, a check of the EB from CHI now shows there's now no savings.

• Yesterday the #2 bucket Roomette from CHI to SEA was $632 but from MKE was $121 less or 19% less.
• Today it was the same $632 from CHI but only $2 less from MKE!

Who knows - maybe all those other price breaks will be gone by tomorrow! :(
 
Please don't expect the route info in Post #42 to remain the same. After re-checking the data for the TE from CHI and finding it had not changed from yesterday, a check of the EB from CHI now shows there's now no savings.

• Yesterday the #2 bucket Roomette from CHI to SEA was $632 but from MKE was $121 less or 19% less.
• Today it was the same $632 from CHI but only $2 less from MKE!

Who knows - maybe all those other price breaks will be gone by tomorrow! :(
Whoever programs the real-time pricing for Amtrak should work with investors to help online trading on wall street.
I've seen prices change within minutes. I booked a train from Baltimore to NY for a car show, and my friend lived near the BelAir stop was online and we were on phone at same time. We both saw the fare we wanted. He must have hit his keys a nano-second before me because he got that low fare, but then mine returned with NO more fares at that rate. I had to refresh and go back in, and the fare had jumped by 50%. o_O
 
This shows the fares upon which the info in Posts #45 and #47 was based:
Initial Fare Dropsa.jpg
I strongly suspect (based on other work) other buckets and other sleeping accommodations would have similar patterns.
 
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Whoever programs the real-time pricing for Amtrak should work with investors to help online trading on wall street.
I've seen prices change within minutes. I booked a train from Baltimore to NY for a car show, and my friend lived near the BelAir stop was online and we were on phone at same time. We both saw the fare we wanted. He must have hit his keys a nano-second before me because he got that low fare, but then mine returned with NO more fares at that rate. I had to refresh and go back in, and the fare had jumped by 50%. o_O
That wasn't real time pricing, that was inventory consumption. There was only so much inventory in the bucket and when your friend bought the ticket, it consumed the last item in that inventory and the system went to the next set of inventory.

The set amount of inventory in each bucket is relatively static. It changes but it has to be set and once set it stays there until it is reset.

To use the bucket analogy, your friend drank the last cup of water in the bucket. Amtrak grabbed the next bucket that was ready in line to get you yours. It wasn't changing the amount of water in each bucket dynamically.

It isn't a sophisticated algorithm. At heart it is just a counter.
 
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