Do you think local ridership will prevent full utilization of service to Orlando? IE: Will people be prevented from going to Orlando from MIA because too many people booked those seats between MIA and WPB?
This is a complicated question. I did some deeper analysis either earlier in this monster of a thread or in the other one, and there's a potential "pressure point" between FLL and BOC. The assigned seating situation also creates room for "unintentional breakage" (e.g. some seats will be reserved with a suboptimal configuration of seat selection due to booking/cancellation and so on*).
Having said that, I have also noticed that Brightline is pretty good about hard-blocking "short" space on trains to ensure there's "longer" space. So Brightline will
probably block some through space until close to departure.
One thing Brightline might want to consider, if this proves to be an issue, is selling short tickets on the MCO-MIA runs that come with a
train reservation at booking but where the
seat reservation isn't given until the train leaves Orlando (about two hours before it leaves WPB). Another option would be to let folks agree to involuntary day-of-travel seat changes (with being able to mark off some constraints - single seats in Premium, aisle/window elsewhere) in exchange for a small credit if selected.
*Consider a train going A-B-C with two seats and one passenger for each city pair (1 A-B, 2 B-C, and 3 A-C). Ideally you'd end up with pax 1 and 2 booking in one seat and pax 3 in the other seat...but it's possible to imagine a situation where 1 and 2 end up in different seats and 3 can't get a ticket. This shows up on Amtrak sleepers all the time.
I think they are capable of running on time. Problem is, their on-time is 15 minutes between MIA and WPB and 45 minutes between MIA and MCO longer than they are/were advertising.
As far as the on-board experience goes, I was not comfortable on the train between WPB and FLL. I cannot imagine a 3:45 ride MCO to MIA. Leather may sound luxurious, but as a former business jet interiors engineer, many executives with $50M+ jets prefer cloth over leather because they are more comfortable. Back to trains - even the first class Green Cars in Japan are mostly (if not all) cloth.
Not trying to be a nay-sayer. I love Brightline and its concept. I root for private rail travel in the US and feel it's the only way to get great, reliable, consistent service.
Runtime right now is 3:33-3:38 MCO-MIA (depending on stops in BOC/AVE). In late October this drops to 3:25-3:30. Presuming that this sticks, 3:25 isn't
quite as advertised, but it's getting closer, and I'd like to hear if there's some more room for schedule improvements over time (to at least make up for probable additional stations in Cocoa, etc.).
One thing to add, as a question: Does anybody know what the catering is set to be in Premium along the trip? For the most part, on a domestic flight if you're over 3:00 you're getting a meal (the threshold is usually about 900 miles).