Capitol/ Pennsylvanian Connection: Progress?

[tp49]

OK, so I want a HAR/Lancaster to CHI train as well as a PHL-CHI train. Harrisburg and Lancaster, PA are among the top 25 busiest Amtrak stations as well. So a new BL or a CL/Pennsylvanian would take care of this.

Since no one else has asked the question I guess I will. If you want this new service there should be some level of an existing market for it. If you're going to make a case innuendo alone won't work but facts will, i.e., hard numbers. Thus the question is what is the number of passengers annually traveling between Harrisburg and Chicago; Lancaster and Chicago; and Philadelphia and Chicago and are those numbers suitable to justify what you seek?

Please read my post about the history of the BL/TR and why it's important. I took data from a 2004 NARP report (and attached it) to show ridership data for several of the city combos along the TR.

The problem with eleven year old data is that, well it's a decade old, things change dramatically in ten plus years, and doesn't answer the question I asked. I'm figuring if NARP was able to get that data in the past that they (or someone else) would have current (or as close to current as Amtrak will allow) data to answer the question.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

OK, so I want a HAR/Lancaster to CHI train as well as a PHL-CHI train. Harrisburg and Lancaster, PA are among the top 25 busiest Amtrak stations as well. So a new BL or a CL/Pennsylvanian would take care of this.

Since no one else has asked the question I guess I will. If you want this new service there should be some level of an existing market for it. If you're going to make a case innuendo alone won't work but facts will, i.e., hard numbers. Thus the question is what is the number of passengers annually traveling between Harrisburg and Chicago; Lancaster and Chicago; and Philadelphia and Chicago and are those numbers suitable to justify what you seek?

Please read my post about the history of the BL/TR and why it's important. I took data from a 2004 NARP report (and attached it) to show ridership data for several of the city combos along the TR.

The problem with eleven year old data is that, well it's a decade old, things change dramatically in ten plus years, and doesn't answer the question I asked. I'm figuring if NARP was able to get that data in the past that they (or someone else) would have current (or as close to current as Amtrak will allow) data to answer the question.

But you can't analyze CHI-PHL or CHI-HAR ridership when the train in question doesn't exist (or takes 26 hours).

 

[Ryan]

You can if you analyze Pennsy to Cap passengers. And Pennsy to LSL passengers. And NEC to Cap passengers. And NEC to LSL passengers.

That'll give you a pretty good idea of what the market is.

The population figures you posted aren't that data.

 

[jis]

Potential ridership analysis is done all the time before any service is established. I bet PennDOT and Amtrak have such information stashed away in their archives somewhere. Such information would be needed for planning a second Pennsy frequency or even supporting the through cars from Pennsy to the Cap. They cannot just say "we feel this is a good idea" and plop down a bunch of money from the hard to come by pile of money that they have. They have to justify such.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

You can if you analyze Pennsy to Cap passengers. And Pennsy to LSL passengers. And NEC to Cap passengers. And NEC to LSL passengers.

That'll give you a pretty good idea of what the market is.

The population figures you posted aren't that data.

They weren't in the report. I don't believe they are in the latest NARP report either. If you can find the data that you say here, by all means present it.

 

[Ryan]

I'm not trying to prove anything here...

I think my friend Ed Hochuli has something to say about that too.

 

[neroden]

Ryan, the evidence is overwhelming that PHL-CHI, HAR-CHI (etc.) ridership is/would be high. Even the minimal study in the PIP of the Pennsy/Cap through cars is sufficient to demonstrate that. You are the one trying to reverse the burden of proof. You lose.

 

[Ryan]

Precisely what do you think that I'm trying to prove?

 

[neroden]

OK, Ryan, here's the sequence. First tp49 wrote:

"Since no one else has asked the question I guess I will. If you want this new service there should be some level of an existing market for it. If you're going to make a case innuendo alone won't work but facts will, i.e., hard numbers. Thus the question is what is the number of passengers annually traveling between Harrisburg and Chicago; Lancaster and Chicago; and Philadelphia and Chicago and are those numbers suitable to justify what you seek? "

Some people answered "Those numbers are plenty high, here's citations". Your (Ryan's) response was that that was nonresponsive, when in fact it was responsive.

 

[Ryan]

The rub is what numbers you're talking about. TP49's request was for the number of people traveling between those points. Population numbers don't satisfy that request.

I actually happen to agree that such a service would probably do well, but hard numbers on actual travelers means a lot more than the vague feeling of someone on the Internet, and requesting those numbers isn't an unreasonable request.

 

[CHamilton]

Anecdotal evidence :there were quite a few of us who transferred from 30 to 42 yesterday morning, even though it meant stumbling out of our comfortable rooms at 5 am and waiting until 6:40 when we could get on 42. Of course, I knew that an AU mini - Gathering with cheesesteaks, AmtrakBlue and Acela150 awaited me in PHL!

 

[Bob Dylan]

That's what they're feeding you in Philly Charlie? Lots of great food in the Reading Market as I'm sure you know!

 

[jis]

I was wondering whether there was an AU member who registered self with the handle "cheesesteaks" that Charlie is meeting.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

That's what they're feeding you in Philly Charlie? Lots of great food in the Reading Market as I'm sure you know!

But we would not have seen South Philly or the penitentiary had we gone to Reading Market. Luckily for us, the penitentiary was closed so instead we went for some water ice.

 

[afigg]

The rub is what numbers you're talking about. TP49's request was for the number of people traveling between those points. Population numbers don't satisfy that request.

I actually happen to agree that such a service would probably do well, but hard numbers on actual travelers means a lot more than the vague feeling of someone on the Internet, and requesting those numbers isn't an unreasonable request.

At the risk of keeping this particular side discussion going, this is an internet forum for people to post stuff about Amtrak and passenger trains. Not an internal Amtrak business line discussion email list. If someone wants to advocate bringing back the BL/TR, that's fine. Asking the poster to provide hard numbers worthy of a proper business market survey conducted by a hired market consulting firm spending tens of thousands of dollars is more than a bit over the top. All anyone here can realistically do is dig up NARP stats, look up population and economic numbers for cities & metro regions. And for this route, look up the SEPTA ridership history numbers going back 10-20 years as there is a strong correlation between Amtrak's busiest cities and cities with good rail transit systems. (NYC, DC, Boston, Chicago, Philly, etc). But "hard numbers" for ridership projections? That is the purview of consultants with deep census databases and sophisticated computer models.

 

[Bob Dylan]

That's what they're feeding you in Philly Charlie? Lots of great food in the Reading Market as I'm sure you know!

But we would not have seen South Philly or the penitentiary had we gone to Reading Market. Luckily for us, the penitentiary was closed so instead we went for some water ice.

South Philly huh? Did y'all run into the Godfather and the boys? LOL

 

[AmtrakBlue]

That's what they're feeding you in Philly Charlie? Lots of great food in the Reading Market as I'm sure you know!

But we would not have seen South Philly or the penitentiary had we gone to Reading Market. Luckily for us, the penitentiary was closed so instead we went for some water ice.

South Philly huh? Did y'all run into the Godfather and the boys? LOL

With Steve driving, hard to tell who we ran into ...
Steve was a very good driver.

 

[jis]

That's what they're feeding you in Philly Charlie? Lots of great food in the Reading Market as I'm sure you know!

But we would not have seen South Philly or the penitentiary had we gone to Reading Market. Luckily for us, the penitentiary was closed so instead we went for some water ice.

Which penitentiary did you see? All NEC passengers between Philly and Trenton get to see at least one, which I understand is no longer in active use. OTOH, all Empire Service passengers between Yonkers and Croton Harmon get to see one, indeed pass through the middle of one, that is currently in active use.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

I think they are talking about Eastern State Penitentiary. Its a museum. I've visited it before and its pretty interesting.

A great place to visit, but I wouldn't want to..... badda bing!