Only if Congress provides the full funding needed to operate and maintain the LD trains. Until Congress does that, Amtrak will have to allocate some portion of the NEC operating "surplus" to over the losses and capital maintenance costs for the LD system. Even if Congress were to fully cover the costs of the LD system, part of the NEC "surplus" will still go towards shared system and overhead costs. The last update I read on the Senate FY17 appropriation process, Amtrak is likely to get the same total funding as in FY2016 with maybe a small increase. So there will likely be little change in the actual allocation by Amtrak of its net NEC "surplus" towards the NEC. The additional funding being contributed by the commuter agencies may be the more significant boost for NEC capital funds, given the weakness in NEC ticket revenue.Folks, if Amtrak's 2017 budget is allocated by two accounts: LD and NEC, does that automatically mean that Amtrak's NEC operating profits can be reinvested back into the Northeast Corridor?
Just to clarify, Amtrak turned a nearly $500 million operating profit on the NEC last year from: http://www.wsj.com/articles/amtrak-faces-prospect-of-private-competition-1449266250Only if Congress provides the full funding needed to operate and maintain the LD trains. Until Congress does that, Amtrak will have to allocate some portion of the NEC operating "surplus" to over the losses and capital maintenance costs for the LD system. Even if Congress were to fully cover the costs of the LD system, part of the NEC "surplus" will still go towards shared system and overhead costs. The last update I read on the Senate FY17 appropriation process, Amtrak is likely to get the same total funding as in FY2016 with maybe a small increase. So there will likely be little change in the actual allocation by Amtrak of its net NEC "surplus" towards the NEC. The additional funding being contributed by the commuter agencies may be the more significant boost for NEC capital funds, given the weakness in NEC ticket revenue.Folks, if Amtrak's 2017 budget is allocated by two accounts: LD and NEC, does that automatically mean that Amtrak's NEC operating profits can be reinvested back into the Northeast Corridor?
That noted, part of the operating "surplus" is going to be used to pay for rolling stock for the next several decades. The FY2016 budget and five year financial plan shows the annual debt service cost for the $562.9 million RRIF loan to pay for the ACS-64 locomotives leveling off to $36.6 million a year. Assuming the contract for the next gen HSR trainsets goes through, the RRIF loan for that is going to be $2.45 billion. That is more than 4 times the debt for the ACS-64 loan, but the interest rate should be lower. Doing some rough ballpark estimates, the debt service for the Acela IIs and related improvements could be in the $130 to $140 million a year range once the new trainsets are all delivered. So roughly maybe $170 million a year of the NEC annual surplus will be allocated towards debt service for rolling stock.
If Amtrak then gets a RRIF loan combined with annual capital contributions from the eastern states to replace the Amfleet 1s with, say, 520 new single level cars at circa $3.5 million a car plus spares and maintenance facility upgrades, that could be another $1.5 to $2 billion RRIF loan to pay off from the NEC annual "surplus". Then how much of the surplus will be left to pay for mundane track and power maintenance and contribute towards the bridge and tunnel replacement projects?
The issue here is, as far as I can tell, pretty clearly with N-S, not with the concept of the batch order. Frankly the "pool order" concept still seems solid and it seems like N-S almost got unlucky with the crash test they failed more than anything.The Amtrak fleet strategy is pretty clear on A-2s going before A-1s. The only plausible scenario that alters that would be if a state or group of states (like NY and Vermont) decided to buy railcars to replace the A-1s on state supported routes. Not likely, but not impossible. That concept seems to be working out really well in the Midwest and California with the N-S cars, right.
It is my understanding that Amtrak proposed that in 2012. Now, we are in 2016. Perhaps Amtrak will rethink this?The Amtrak fleet strategy is pretty clear on A-2s going before A-1s. The only plausible scenario that alters that would be if a state or group of states (like NY and Vermont) decided to buy railcars to replace the A-1s on state supported routes. Not likely, but not impossible. That concept seems to be working out really well in the Midwest and California with the N-S cars, right.
The Amfleets are very well maintained. Are you saying that Amtrak would not likely order any new Amfleet I's until the early 2020's then? Also, do you know how many Amtrak expects to order, and when they plan to replace their Amfleet 2's?AFAICT no one at Amtrak realistically expects to get any Amfleet I replacement before the latter half of the '20s. What they are planning for is another rebuild of the Amfleet I fleet to carry them through till then.
See we keep admiring VIA for keeping their Budd fleet alive through rebuilds for so long. Well, guess what? Amtrak will be keeping its own Budd fleet alive for quite a while yet.
Depends on how much money becomes available. No one knows when or how much at present.The Amfleets are very well maintained. Are you saying that Amtrak would not likely order any new Amfleet I's until the early 2020's then? Also, do you know how many Amtrak expects to order, and when they plan to replace their Amfleet 2's?AFAICT no one at Amtrak realistically expects to get any Amfleet I replacement before the latter half of the '20s. What they are planning for is another rebuild of the Amfleet I fleet to carry them through till then.
See we keep admiring VIA for keeping their Budd fleet alive through rebuilds for so long. Well, guess what? Amtrak will be keeping its own Budd fleet alive for quite a while yet.
Exactly!That's all presuming they even stick to something resembling the Fleet Strategy Plan...which has in many respects proven to be more of an academic exercise than anything to date.
Anything beyond noting this is a wild guess; Amtrak could just as easily order 1:1 replacements as they could significantly boost their mid-to-long distance fleet. That's going to be down to a lot of political considerations as well as practical ones.
I say this with the utmost respect, but I'll have an iota of faith in an order when they formally request acquisition funding, substantially more when they actually get the funding, and yet more when the order is formally placed and locked in. If anything, IIRC there's already a non-trivial amount of schedule slip since version 1.0 (we're on 3.1).Anderson the FY 2017 budget request still follows the fleet strategy plan. Plan states new LD single level cars ( type not specified ) will begin in 2019. That does seem to be rather optimistic.
No. Amtrak's overhead has to be covered. Right now, this overhead is arbitrarily "allocated" between NEC, LD, and "state-supported" accounts, but it has to be paid for *regardless*. Any "profits" in any of the accounts go to cover the overhead deficits in the other accounts first. Period. (And yes, the state-supported account does not cover all of the overhead from state money -- there's some left which requires federal funding.)Folks, if Amtrak's 2017 budget is allocated by two accounts: LD and NEC, does that automatically mean that Amtrak's NEC operating profits can be reinvested back into the Northeast Corridor?
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