Hurricane Irma and Amtrak

[Devil's Advocate]

You're both equally right/wrong. At first the airlines jacked up fares to borderline insane levels. But after people started complaining and attacking them on social media the airlines started allowing for manual reductions and modifying the pricing algorithms to cap the cost of certain flights. That being said, this is a relatively new development and is not something to be counted on in the future. Right now everyone is really interested in hurricanes, but if these types of storms start to become more common or the news media loses interest in hurricane coverage the airlines might decide the bad press is worth the extra money.

 

[Ryan]

To be more correct, the pricing algorithms jacked the prices up based solely on massive demand and proximity to the travel dates.

Unless you have something else that the airlines deliberately went in and modified the pricing upward specifically because of the hurricane, which is what Dennis accused them of.

 

[SarahZ]

Dat flight path... <3

 

[Bob Dylan]

How are our Florida AUers doing?

Hope everyone is Safe and prepared, and also that Mother Nature will steer Irma away from the Sunshine State out to Sea!

 

[Devil's Advocate]

To be more correct, the pricing algorithms jacked the prices up based solely on massive demand and proximity to the travel dates. Unless you have something else that the airlines deliberately went in and modified the pricing upward specifically because of the hurricane, which is what Dennis accused them of.

For most customers it makes no practical difference if a human entered the price by following the rule book or a human converted the rule book into code that enters the price on their behalf. The result for the consumer is the same either way. Rather than worry about a distinction without a difference it would make more sense to focus on the fact that social media and fear of being the one airline that refused to react actually managed to help millions of travelers get where they needed to go. That's been a rare occurrence for airline travelers after years of consolidation and reductions in available seat miles. I would also suggest that the motivation for (and future cost of) purchasing Jet Blue just went up.

 

[Cho Cho Charlie]

What a hurricane back in 1935 did to a train in Florida.

 

[Ryan]

Rather than worry about a distinction without a difference

I'm glad that it doesn't make a difference for you. For others it does.

 

[Cho Cho Charlie]

The Silver Star Train 92 and Silver Meteor Train 98 (Miami - New York City) are cancelled for Sept. 9 - 11.

I was just watching the news, and they are reporting that evacuation highways are already crowded, and gas stations are starting to run out of gas.

This got me wondering if Amtrak would have extra cars on their last north-bound 92 and 98 (on Sept 8?), to offer an option to those wanting to evacuate north out of Miami. Or no one in the Miami area would ever think of taking Amtrak?

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

Is Tampa evacuating or not? I have a friend in St. Pete who said they would know today, but haven't heard anything yet. My cousin in central Florida is hunkered down in their poured concrete house (I hope yours is too JIS).

I gather my friends in San Juan are ok (luckily almost everything in PR is built from poured concrete and it's relatively hilly in the San Juan area too).

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Rather than worry about a distinction without a difference

I'm glad that it doesn't make a difference for you. For others it does.

Let me see if I can understand the difference as you see it. The airlines followed their own standard operating procedure which they themselves had crafted and was designed from the start to result in severe fare increases each and every time an exceptional number of people wanted to travel to or from the same location at the same time. But what's important to you is that behind the scenes these fares were entered by an algorithm following a digital rule book rather than a human clerk following the exact same rules from a physical book. I guess this is intended to point out that the airlines are only willing to charge whatever they can get 99.99% of the time and it's the algorithm's fault that this briefly reached 100% until someone stepped in and manually set it back to 99.99% again? Yeah, I can see why that's such an important case to make.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

DA, you should know, as well as anyone, that it can take 6 months to a year for the programmers to make the necessary changes to the program to not bump the prices at times like this.

 

[Ryan]

You're missing the point. Dennis' contention was that prices were jacked up specifically because of the hurricane. As in, someone sitting in Airport HQ said "Hey - there's going to be a lot of people wanting to get out of the storm, we can make a pile of money by charging huge fares".

That contention is completely and totally false.

The algorithms used work the same regardless of the reason for the demand. Like I said, if that's not important for you, go for it. But it's critically important when someone ascribes motive behind the price changes that isn't there.

 

[brianpmcdonnell17]

Is Tampa evacuating or not? I have a friend in St. Pete who said they would know today, but haven't heard anything yet. My cousin in central Florida is hunkered down in their poured concrete house (I hope yours is too JIS).

I gather my friends in San Juan are ok (luckily almost everything in PR is built from poured concrete and it's relatively hilly in the San Juan area too).

Pinellas county (including St. Petersburg) is evacuating Zone A, which is the first of 5 flood zones and includes very low elevation areas and all mobile homes. No evacuation would likely be necessary if it does stay on it's current course, but the precaution is likely a good thing as if the storm turns and makes a direct hit more than one of the zones would likely need to be evacuated.
Sent from my SM-J327P using Amtrak Forum mobile app

 

[JoeBas]

New Euro model is west.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

You're missing the point. Dennis' contention was that prices were jacked up specifically because of the hurricane. As in, someone sitting in Airport HQ said "Hey - there's going to be a lot of people wanting to get out of the storm, we can make a pile of money by charging huge fares". That contention is completely and totally false. The algorithms used work the same regardless of the reason for the demand. Like I said, if that's not important for you, go for it. But it's critically important when someone ascribes motive behind the price changes that isn't there.

I think what you're saying is that this wasn't a hot headed spur of the moment decision to screw over people desperate to escape Hurricane Imra, and I agree with that. It was a calm and deliberate decision to charge the maximum possible price to anyone, anywhere, anytime a lot of people were traveling to and/or from the same location at the same time, including when it's caused by a hurricane or other disaster. There was a time you could claim this was a naive programmatic accident in the past, but in the modern post-Enron era there is no such thing as simply forgetting about hurricanes or other weather based phenomena strong enough to impact supply and demand. In other words it's a genuine difference at the technical level, but it's also a distinction without any practical significance for most consumers.

 

[Cho Cho Charlie]

You're missing the point. Dennis' contention was that prices were jacked up specifically because of the hurricane. As in, someone sitting in Airport HQ said "Hey - there's going to be a lot of people wanting to get out of the storm, we can make a pile of money by charging huge fares".

That contention is completely and totally false.

The algorithms used work the same regardless of the reason for the demand. Like I said, if that's not important for you, go for it. But it's critically important when someone ascribes motive behind the price changes that isn't there.

Just to add, I just saw a story on the news, the now "famous" bump of an air ticket price to over $3K was not on any airlines' website, but rather on one of those 3rd party discount ticket websites. The price wasn't even real, and as already pointed out here, was the unintended pre-programmed response in that 3rd party's website software to a sudden interest in buying tickets.

 

[west point]

Zip ties might fix gates in up position.

 

[Thirdrail7]

CSX has weighed in. Keep your eye on the website for additional updates.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

You're missing the point. Dennis' contention was that prices were jacked up specifically because of the hurricane. As in, someone sitting in Airport HQ said "Hey - there's going to be a lot of people wanting to get out of the storm, we can make a pile of money by charging huge fares".

That contention is completely and totally false.

The algorithms used work the same regardless of the reason for the demand. Like I said, if that's not important for you, go for it. But it's critically important when someone ascribes motive behind the price changes that isn't there.

Just to add, I just saw a story on the news, the now "famous" bump of an air ticket price to over $3K was not on any airlines' website, but rather on one of those 3rd party discount ticket websites. The price wasn't even real, and as already pointed out here, was the unintended pre-programmed response in that 3rd party's website software to a sudden interest in buying tickets.

Aggregate sites generally get their prices from the same ticketing systems that airlines use to publish fares to their own front ends, and $3,000 is well within the realm of plausibility for a domestic flight in a distressed market, so I'm not sure how you (or your as yet unnamed news source) determined a given fare was not bookable after the fact. The way this normally works is that someone files a complaint with a state's attorney general office including whatever details and evidence they can manage. If enough complaints and evidence are submitted the staff will look it over and eventually decide if they want to subpoena system logs and investigate further. To be fair, this is one area where Ryan's distinction does make a difference. So long as the potential price increases were loaded into the system before the storm existed or threatened anyone the airlines are largely protected from accusations of profiteering and price gouging. They can simply claim that the computer didn't know any better and applied the same rules as always. Apparently that's considered a valid defense for a large corporation in an anti-fraud case at the state level.

 

[pennyk]

To get this thread (Hurricane Irma and Amtrak) back on topic: Those of us living in Florida, whether staying put or trying to evacuate, are very concerned about the enormity of this storm. There is nothing funny about this storm.

I wish safety to my fellow Floridians (and likely to Georgians, South Carolinians and North Carolinians).

FYI, both Meteors were running about an hour late through Orlando. I have a friend who wanted to take 98 north today and it was sold out.

 

[Ryan]

Goes without saying, but if y’all need anything, make sure we know about it.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I hope more people have flood insurance in FL than they did in TX. Around here a lack of funding means that flood maps are rarely updated these days and homeowners are often unaware they're located in an expanding flood plain. I also read that FEMA may go bankrupt in the next few days if the federal government doesn't move quickly to replenish the budget. Not sure what that means for FL but apparently we didn't budget for more than one big storm this year and we're still months away from the end of hurricane season.

 

[Maverickstation]

Here is the update from Amtrak.

Amtrak Suspends Service in Florida Severe weather expected to impact region
[SIZE=10.5pt]Sept. 7, 2017[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]3 p.m. ET[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Amtrak will temporarily suspend services in Florida due to severe weather impacting the southeast region. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The Silver Star Train 92 and Silver Meteor[/SIZE] Train 98 (Miami - New York City) are cancelled for Sept. 9 - 11.

[SIZE=10.5pt]The Silver Star Train 91 (New York City - Miami) will operate from New York City to Orlando, Fla., on Thursday, Sept. 7. The Silver Meteor [/SIZE]Train 97 (New York City - Miami) will operate from New York City to Jacksonville, Fla. Trains 91 and 97 are cancelled for Sept. 8 - 10.

[SIZE=10.5pt]The Auto Train 53 (Lorton, Va. - Sanford, Fla.) is cancelled for Friday, Sept.8, and Saturday, Sept. 9. The Auto Train[/SIZE] 52 (Sanford, Fla. - Lorton, Va.) is cancelled on Sept. 9-11.

[SIZE=10.5pt]No alternate transportation will be provided.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Amtrak regrets any inconvenience. This information is correct as of the above time and date. Information is subject to change as conditions warrant.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Anyone can subscribe to automated email or text message notifications if Amtrak trains are behind schedule at specific stations. Notifications can be given for up to six trains and stations by either text or email and delivered when you choose - on a single day, every day, or just certain days of the week. Create a subscription at Amtrak.com/delayalerts.https://na01.safelinks.protection.o...zfGPT6H4jjdJ/a/1HIcJ7BXawG8bpUQO8=&reserved=0[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Passengers with travel plans also can confirm their train's status, change their plans or review refund informationhttps://na01.safelinks.protection.o...pHXwA68HaykK24a6res6n9yO0GodRfFEg=&reserved=0[/SIZE] using a range of tools – including Amtrak.com, smartphone apps or by calling 800-USA-RAIL. Service Alerts, Passenger Notices and other announcements are posted at Amtrak.com/alerts.

[SIZE=10.5pt]To be notified of service disruptions on the Northeast Corridor (including Acela Express, Northeast Regional[/SIZE] and other corridor services), follow @AmtrakNEC on Twitter.

 

[neroden]

I hope more people have flood insurance in FL than they did in TX. Around here a lack of funding means that flood maps are rarely updated these days and homeowners are often unaware they're located in an expanding flood plain. I also read that FEMA may go bankrupt in the next few days if the federal government doesn't move quickly to replenish the budget. Not sure what that means for FL but apparently we didn't budget for more than one big storm this year and we're still months away from the end of hurricane season.

There is now an omnibus bill with "Harvey relief funding" (actually just more money for FEMA period) and a debt limit raise to December. It passed the Senate. It needs to pass the House TOMORROW to avoid FEMA running out of money on SATURDAY. It is believed that they will do so, though it's hard to tell since Speaker Ryan is a clown who doesn't understand the sort of danger he's playing with. It's not clear how long that money will last, so there will be another FEMA funding crisis a few weeks later, most likely.

 

[neroden]

I was just watching the news, and they are reporting that evacuation highways are already crowded, and gas stations are starting to run out of gas.

This got me wondering if Amtrak would have extra cars on their last north-bound 92 and 98 (on Sept 8?), to offer an option to those wanting to evacuate north out of Miami. Or no one in the Miami area would ever think of taking Amtrak?

At the moment they're all SOLD OUT, and I think they're really sold out.

I wonder if Amtrak will offer the use of the trains turning in Jacksonville and Orlando today, Friday (and I sure hope they're turning, 'cause it would be crazy to park them in either city) as evac trains for people from those cities? I would have called the mayors and offered them this.