The Iowa DOT and a professional transportation engineering firm spent over a year doing a study and analyzing the data to come up with their estimate. Why do you think they are wrong? I'm not saying your number is any more or less accurate of an estimate, I'm just curious what data you used to arrive at the 800,000 number?I think 1,300,000 pax per year is too much. I roughly estimate maybe 800,000.
I was just estimating because there are very few Amtrak trains that have more than 1,000,000 ridership. Looking at the population density of the line and ridership of other Amtrak trains serving such populations got me 800,000 at the most. It als depands heavily on how many cars are available, but even if you had unlimited equipment, I still doubt 1,300,000. That would be akin to the Keystone which serves more population over shorter distances at higher speeds and probably more equipment.The Iowa DOT and a professional transportation engineering firm spent over a year doing a study and analyzing the data to come up with their estimate. Why do you think they are wrong? I'm not saying your number is any more or less accurate of an estimate, I'm just curious what data you used to arrive at the 800,000 number?I think 1,300,000 pax per year is too much. I roughly estimate maybe 800,000.
Link to study info.:
http://www.iowadot.g...urces.html#docs
I agree with Anderson. Now we'll just have to wait for the money.Well, it's not supposed to be one train, it's supposed to be 4/day to Omaha and 5/day to Des Moines.
Edit:
http://www.iowadot.g...lternatives.pdf
The ridership estimate for route 4-A (the chosen route) is 680,000-935,000 with revenue of $24.2-33.9 million, not 1.3 million. What seems possible is that they added the IA study to an IL study for the Quad Cities train and got 1.3 million that way.
As to state trains, the highest once-daily train is the Carolinian (306k), followed by the Pennsylvanian (212k), then followed by the Lynchburger (184k). Two of IL's state trains are twice-daily, and they generate 232k and 325k total (though both are partly supplemented by LD trains, to be fair). Looking for state trains in the 600k-1m range, you're looking at the Hiawatha, which is about 6 round trips per day, the WAS-NPN route (5 trains to RVR, 2 continue to NPN), and the Cascades. Ultimately, I do find a mid-range of 800,000 to be feasible; I just don't see the route generating 3500 pax/day (or around 400/train).
I don't think Amtrak will be willing to operate an overnight train. They usually avoid those as much as possible because they need every Sleeper they have on existing routes and a consist without any Sleepers would get more pax during the day. Who knows if they'll end up betting another CHI-OMA, though.I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)
I'm not sure if the market is there. If the numbers worked and the state was willing to subsidize it, Amtrak would likely run such a service (assuming they have the equipment), but CHI-OMA doesn't seem to be quite big enough for such a service on a continual basis, and CHI-DSM doesn't seem long enough to run such a train (which would need to leave CHI at some obnoxious hour at night to make the trip work outbound, and leave DSM at a similarly bad hour inbound). If you could have something like the old Ampad that was stuck on the Shenandoah (say, the lower level of a coach car having two bedrooms and a half-dozen roomettes), that might work for the trip, since I do suspect that a train with an 8 AM arrival time into CHI might sell enough seats on the "back end" from at least the Quad Cities, and possibly from Des Moines, to work as part of the planned set of runs.I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)
If it was 50 years ago, it might have worked. As late as 1963, Burlington, Rock Island and Milwaukee Road all had overnight dedicated Chicago to Omaha trains with Sleeping Cars. Burlington had the Aksarben Zephyr that actually ran Chicago-Omaha+Lincoln. It actually used California Zephyr Equipment that was laying over in Chiacgo. Rock Island ran the Corn Belt Rocket that dropped off a car in Des Moines before continuing to Omaha. Milwaukee Road had the Arrow that carrier Chicago to Omaha and Chicago to Sioux City- Sioux Falls equipment. I doubt very seriously that markt would come back, but it was there.I'm not sure if the market is there. If the numbers worked and the state was willing to subsidize it, Amtrak would likely run such a service (assuming they have the equipment), but CHI-OMA doesn't seem to be quite big enough for such a service on a continual basis, and CHI-DSM doesn't seem long enough to run such a train (which would need to leave CHI at some obnoxious hour at night to make the trip work outbound, and leave DSM at a similarly bad hour inbound). If you could have something like the old Ampad that was stuck on the Shenandoah (say, the lower level of a coach car having two bedrooms and a half-dozen roomettes), that might work for the trip, since I do suspect that a train with an 8 AM arrival time into CHI might sell enough seats on the "back end" from at least the Quad Cities, and possibly from Des Moines, to work as part of the planned set of runs.I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)
Of course, let's segue the question somewhat: How much business could a later-evening departure from CHI and a morning arrival in CHI get to/from Denver? And if IA was getting some sort of "piggyback" deal, could that nudge the overall losses downwards enough for the budget to work (i.e. it's an LD train, but it's "off the national network" and IL/IA is sponsoring it from OMA-CHI)? Even if you did something wacky like cut off coaches at OMA or DSM to preserve equipment, I can't help but wonder if this wouldn't work.
Not really; the Des Moines-Chicago market just doesn't seem large enough, and the trip is just a bit too short. The California Zephyr already provides overnight service for Omaha/Chicago. However....I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)
The Zephyr currently doesn't provide true overnight service Omaha to Chicago. Eastward, it's 5:14 AM departure from Omaha, and 2:50 PM into Chicago. Other way it's 2:00 PM from Chicago, 10:55 PM into Omaha. That's not overnight service.Not really; the Des Moines-Chicago market just doesn't seem large enough, and the trip is just a bit too short. The California Zephyr already provides overnight service for Omaha/Chicago. However....I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)
The newspaper article is rather clear that the 1.3 million passenger forecast is based on 110 mph service. That should provide trip time faster than driving and competitive trip times for flying for what air travel market there is between Omaha, Des Moines, Iowa City (if there are any direct flights left). Of course, a 110 mph service is a long ways off given that the Iowa Republicans have blocked putting up $20 million in state matching funds to extend 79 mph class service to Iowa City.You know, I'll qualify my comments a bit further: I could see it happening if ridership just goes off in a tear. I think 800,000 and 1.3 million is the difference there...at that point, if you could get the $35-37 PPR that seems to be projected, you'd be looking at $47.1 million, which is probably more than enough to cover the cost of the service. And being honest, if you could through some miracle get Nebraska to cover an extension to Lincoln (which would, under such a result, probably add another 150-200k to the pile...but considering the likely low net cost there, it would probably cover its net expenses...and of course, if it would be a substantially profitable move you might get IA to spring for it), Lincoln+Omaha/Council Bluffs might actually be enough of a market to make that worth a shot...especially if traffic on I-80 truly gets bad like the projections seem to expect.
Still, those sorts of ridership numbers are going to require everything short of fairy dust to make happen.
In the untapped market thread I started awhile back, my #6 was what I think you'd be looking forHow about another train CHI-GJT?
All right, that's exactly what I'm lokking for except maybe one hour earlier westbound and one hour later eastbound.In the untapped market thread I started awhile back, my #6 was what I think you'd be looking forHow about another train CHI-GJT?
6) CHI-DEN. Needs more capacity for sure. I know at this point it's unrealistic to ask for a day train, given the sheer distance, albeit nice track. What would be nice would be an 10pm departure from CHI, leaving Omaha at 7am, Lincoln at 8am, arriving Denver at 3pm, then heading to Grand Junction arriving at 11pm. Not only would this provide an overnight ride from CHI to both Omaha and Denver, providing more capacity, it allows another frequency over the Rockies to accommodate and hopefully minimize the capacity demands currently straining the CZ. It would allow people to not miss a whole day travelling this section. Coming back, the consist could leave Grand Junction at 6am, arriving Denver at 1pm, it could get to Lincoln by 10:30pm, Omaha by 11:30pm, and then Chicago by 8:30am. Same reasons work for the frequency in the other direction.
Enter your email address to join: