January, 2016 Monthly Performance Report

[afigg]

The January, 2016 Monthly Performance Report (63 page PDF) has been posted. The pattern of recent months continues with ridership and revenue continuing to sag. One bright spot is the on-time performance on many routes is better than this time last year.

System numbers: Not good. Ticket revenue for January of $139.4 million was down -$5.3M from 2015 and $10 million below the budget. The adjusted operating loss for the month was $60 million, $17.4 million worse than January 2015. January and February are the worse months of the fiscal year for operating losses due to the decline in revenue. For comparison, the December ticket revenue was $182.4 million. Reducing consists for the winter months only trims operating costs a little. Interestingly, Food & Beverage sales of $9.4 million were up $1.3 million over 2015, but that may be due to changes in accounting for allocating sleeper revenue to the LD diner cars.

The Year-To-Date adjusted operating loss was $79.6 million, $44.9 million worse than the previous year. Hence the cash flow crunch that the Boardman memo was about.

Ridership and Ticket Revenue

The Mid-Atlantic region got hit with a major snowstorm that disrupted travel for days, so the statistics for Southern NEC, Virginia, NC services were affected. That noted, it was still a very poor month for the VA Regionals. Despite the big snowstorm, ridership on the NE Regionals was up +1.4% which is a good sign. The corridor services that had ridership increases for the month of January were the NYP-ALB Empire service, Keystone, Surfliner, Capitol Corridor, Cascades, Blue Water. All the other corridors were down in ridership in January. Amtrak needs gasoline prices to bounce back. Well, after locking in low diesel fuel costs with long term hedge contracts.

For the LD trains, the Palmetto is showing a big increase, but that is due to allowing NEC ticket sales. Except for the LSL, the other eastern LD trains were all down in ridership and revenue for the month.

Ridership and Revenue summary for the month of January compared to 2015:

System: ridership -0.6%, revenue: -2.9%

Acela: ridership -0.1%, revenue: -1.1%

NE Regional: ridership +1.4%, revenue -3.3%

State supported corridors: ridership -0.6%, revenue -0.8%

LD trains: ridership +0.6%, revenue -6.5%

Ridership and Revenue summary for the YTD from October to January:

System: ridership -1.7%, revenue: -2.3%

Acela: ridership -1.2%, revenue: -0.9%

NE Regional: ridership -1.5%, revenue -1.9%

State supported corridors: ridership -2.5%, revenue -1.3%

LD trains: ridership +0.4%, revenue -5.3%

On-Time Performance (OTP)

The good news in the continuing improvement in OTP for the month and YTD over the same periods in 2014-2015. If Amtrak can maintain or improve the OTP over what it had the past several years, that will eventually help ridership and revenue, but it takes time for customers who got frustrated with really late arrivals to return.

For the LD trains, 6 out of the 15 exceeded the goal of 80% endpoint OTP. The Capital Limited was 90% and the SWC 95.2%, which are big improvements over the previous year. What is dragging down the overall OTP for the LD trains are the AutoTrain, Silver Star & Meteor, and the Palmetto. CSX is not helping here.

On-Time Endpoint Performance for the month of January compared to 2015:

System: 82.8%, 2015: 77.7%

NE Corridor: 83.8%, 2015 78.4%

State supported corridors: 84.0%, 2015 78.3%

LD trains: 74.1%, 2015 72.3%

 

[seat38a]

Two trains, the capitol corridor and surfliner, which does not have a wildly fluctuating ticket pricing: "Demand on the Pacific Surfliner and Capitol Corridor continues to be positive"

Keep the ticket prices consistent and people will ride!

 

[Train2104]

Any possible explanations for the double digit gain on the CZ?

 

[neroden]

I'd love to say that the rise in LSL ridership and revenue is due to an underlying trend.... but actually it's just the bounce back from Norfolk Southern's Autorouter disaster which was wrecking the OTP in January of 2015. If you account for the bounce-back effect, the LSL is down just as much as every other train relative to FY14. It's good to see that ridership bounced back up within a year, though. Another way to look at it is that the drop in Niagara Falls-Albany ridership this year is equal to the rise in LSL ridership; people were avoiding the LSL last year due to the NS Autorouter disaster.

Although this was a "mild" winter in the NE -- much warmer overall than it should have been -- there were spells of brutal cold, much colder than usual. (This is because we lost the cloud cover which would traditionally have moderated and averaged out the temperatures). Anecdotally I think it was not a winter with any more than usual discretionary travel, and January has low travel rates to start with. We can hope for some mild rise in ridership in the northeast next year if OTP stays good.

Bright spots: The Blue Water ridership is up. The Hoosier State, although down on ridership, is somehow substantially up on revenue -- apparently people like Iowa Pacific's amenities? Surfliner, Capitol Corridor, and Cascades are all up, along with the Starlight (go west coast). The Empire Builder is up (probably because OTP has been getting better and is finally back in a tolerable range).

I don't know why the California Zephyr ridership is way up and it's a very interesting question.

The Texas Eagle is way, way down, and I really wonder why. Is this corridor more sensitive to gas prices? That would make sense: gas prices in the Midwest and Texas have dropped a lot lower than on the West Coast or in the Northeast. Amtrak mentions flooding, but was there really enough flooding to cause a *30%* drop?

----

On Time Performance

NS's Autorouter disaster last year is evident: the LSL had 56.7% OTP in Jan 2015 and 86.3% OTP in Jan 2016. All three Michigan Services had huge jumps in OTP as well, again because of the Autorouter disaster last year. NS really should have paid liquidated damages for that.

The Southwest Chief has also had a giant jump in OTP from 64.5% tto 95.2%. The CL rose from 50% OTP to 90.2% OTP.

The Downeaster jumped from 37.4% OTP to 78.9% OTP, apparently due to track repairs being completed.

The Silver Meteor, Silver Star, Palmetto, and Auto Train actually have worse OTP than last year. Much worse in the case of the Palmetto and Auto Train. Bad CSX.

In general, slow order delays are under control at all the Class Is. Freight train interference delays are *not* under control, indicating continued lawbreaking by some of the Class Is. CP -- shockingly to me -- has managed to reduce their freight train interference delays to very low levels == they're actually in compliance with the PRIIA requirements this month. And BNSF continues to do a good job, though slow orders are accumulating on some routes.

NS has been doing quite badly even after fixing the Autorouter disaster; and as always, the delays are mostly in the final Chicago approach. You'd think NS would actually want to help get South of the Lake built.

CN continues to do badly, and CSX and UP aren't doing that great either. CN has rising problems with signal delays on the Illini/Saluki, as well as endemic problems with freight train interference, and continued slow orders on the Adirondack. UP is the first Class I host where passenger train interference is starting to be more significant than slow orders, mostly on the Lincoln Service.

With the non-Class-I hosts, the exciting news is that delays on Michigan DOT track have dropped to very low levels. MassDOT still has lots of slow orders on the Vermonter route (hopefully soon to be fixed). NECR and VTR are getting trains through Vermont on time, and PanAm is getting the Downeaster through Maine on time. The Downeaster is still delayed by commuter trains, and so is the Surfliner in San Diego County. The Starlight is apparently getting delayed by Surfliners. NM Railrunner still has slow orders affecting the SW Chief. Metra is doing about as well as it always has been. SunRail (CFRC) is doing well with the Star; the Meteor is getting caught in commuter traffic; and the Auto Train is encountering signal problems, which is interesting.

On the whole, the OTP trends are very good. I hope Canada or Quebec or VIA can buy the CN track which the Adirondack runs on.

 

[afigg]

Two trains, the capitol corridor and surfliner, which does not have a wildly fluctuating ticket pricing: "Demand on the Pacific Surfliner and Capitol Corridor continues to be positive"

Keep the ticket prices consistent and people will ride!

Both the Capitol Corridor and the Surfliner receive substantial operating subsidies, so the joint power authorities that oversee each service determine the price strategy and don't seek to maximize revenue. Checking the Capitol Corridor JPA website for the FY15 finances, the reimbursement to Amtrak for FY15 was $27.6 million. For the Surfliner, the subsidy was $46.58 million for FY15 (LOSSAN Rail Corridor Authority). Widely varying ticket prices are the result of seeking to maximize revenue, which does tend to work when the demand is there.

 

[Acela150]

Two words.... Cheap Gas....

 

[afigg]

I don't know why the California Zephyr ridership is way up and it's a very interesting question.

Would be interesting to see how much of the CZ increase is from Denver. Amtrak moved back to the rebuilt Denver Union Station in 2014 and the Denver passenger numbers have bounced back from a decline when the CZ was using the temporary station. (DEN FY15 passengers = 126,403; FY14 = 111,426; FY13 = 108,124; FY10 = 128,410).

While the new Regional lines operating from Union Station have not started service, but the CZ may be benefiting from increased public awareness from people visiting the rebuilt station. With 3 new lines scheduled to start service in 2016, the CZ could see ridership growth to and from Denver due to the improved local transit options.

 

[lo2e]

Here's a little more data on the TE:

From Jan15 to Jan16, total ridership was down 7,625.

Of these, 6,762 were coach passengers, or a 31-day average of about 218 fewer coach passengers per day.

863 were sleeper passengers, or a 31-day average of about 28 fewer per day.

Edit to add: I remember seeing discussion on it but I don't remember the answer... does TE data include passengers ticketed all the way to/from SL stops, or only passengers between CHI and SAS?

Another one - Silver Star:

Total ridership Jan15 to Jan16 was down 3,763.

3,574 were coach passengers, a 31-day average of -115 per day.

189 were sleeper passengers, an average of 6 per day.

On a more positive note, the CZ:

Jan15 to Jan16 total ridership was up 4,049.

2,740 were coach passengers, or a 31-day average of +88 per day.

1,309 were sleeper passengers, or an average of +42 per day.

 

[OBS]

Anecdotal evidence, but, March may not be any better. I saw a manifest for 48 out of Chi tonight. The total pax in the 3 sleepers weren't enough to fill 1 sleeper! Total coach ridership, not even enough to fill 2 coaches! This looks like normal January ridership, not March!!!

I think Acela 150 hit it...Cheap Gas!

 

[Agent]

I don't know why the California Zephyr ridership is way up and it's a very interesting question.

Would be interesting to see how much of the CZ increase is from Denver. Amtrak moved back to the rebuilt Denver Union Station in 2014 and the Denver passenger numbers have bounced back from a decline when the CZ was using the temporary station. (DEN FY15 passengers = 126,403; FY14 = 111,426; FY13 = 108,124; FY10 = 128,410).

While the new Regional lines operating from Union Station have not started service, but the CZ may be benefiting from increased public awareness from people visiting the rebuilt station. With 3 new lines scheduled to start service in 2016, the CZ could see ridership growth to and from Denver due to the improved local transit options.

Probably just a wild guess, but since the Ski Train was run last year, could that have led to more people in the Denver are seeking out to take a train on their own? I doubt it would account for the whole increase, but could it be a factor?

 

[WoodyinNYC]

Here's a little more data on the TE:

From Jan15 to Jan16, total ridership was down 7,625.

Of these, 6,762 were coach passengers, or a 31-day average of about 218 fewer coach passengers per day.

863 were sleeper passengers, or a 31-day average of about 28 fewer per day.

The Texas Eagle shares the CHI-STL route with four state-supported Lincoln trains. For the Lincoln service, January was flat, -0.1%, and that's good news. Because Oct-Jan year-to-date figures are dismal, down 16.2% compared with 2015. With 30,000 fewer riders for the period, that could mean a year's decline of 100,000 pax for those corridor trains. Of course, this route has been suffering badly from major construction delays, even shut-downs of several days at a time, and resulting bustitutions.

The construction delays seem likely to continue until at least Sept 2017, the 'deadline' for Stimulus spending. Reportedly the many small projects to improve grade crossings have gone slowly, entangled with local permitting and NIMBYs.

I don't expect ridership to rebound on this segment until the delays are done with. Then much of the route will be 110-mph, with upgraded tracks, more passing sidings, a stretch of double-tracking, fencing, new bridges, etc. The Lincoins will run about an hour faster. Time savings probably will be only about half an hour for the Eagle still using older locomotives, while the Lincolns will get the new Chargers. Still, the rising tide of ridership will lift all trains. Until then, FY2016 and FY2017 will be very hard going for the Lincolns and the Eagle.

 

[afigg]

Here's a little more data on the TE:

From Jan15 to Jan16, total ridership was down 7,625.

Of these, 6,762 were coach passengers, or a 31-day average of about 218 fewer coach passengers per day.

863 were sleeper passengers, or a 31-day average of about 28 fewer per day.

Edit to add: I remember seeing discussion on it but I don't remember the answer... does TE data include passengers ticketed all the way to/from SL stops, or only passengers between CHI and SAS?

Another one - Silver Star:

Total ridership Jan15 to Jan16 was down 3,763.

3,574 were coach passengers, a 31-day average of -115 per day.

189 were sleeper passengers, an average of 6 per day.

With regards to the Silver Star, Meteor, Carolinian, Palmetto, Crescent January numbers, they were all either canceled for 2 to 3 days due to the snowstorm (aka Snowzilla) or in the case of the Star, restricted to JAX-MIA runs. For a 1 month period, a 3 day service interruption followed by several days for the local road and transit systems in the southern NEC to recover, can account for a 10+% hit. it was a major snowstorm, I live in Northern Virginia and my street was not plowed (and barely at that) until the evening of the 3rd day after the snow started. Didn't go anywhere for 3+ days.

For example, the northbound Meteor did not have a good month overall in getting to NYP thanks to the big snowstorm and service disruptions (at least 1 grade crossing collision, probably more since FL tends to be demolition derby at grade crossings): see #98 Jan 1 to 31 at Status Map Database archive.

For the TE, there were some major delays, but no outright series of cancellations that I see for #21 and #22, So the big dropoff in January ridership is due to something else. Cheap gas is part of it, but that much?

 

[afigg]

Anecdotal evidence, but, March may not be any better. I saw a manifest for 48 out of Chi tonight. The total pax in the 3 sleepers weren't enough to fill 1 sleeper! Total coach ridership, not even enough to fill 2 coaches! This looks like normal January ridership, not March!!!

I think Acela 150 hit it...Cheap Gas!

We are still in early March. Don't know when the ridership in the northern parts of the US normally begins to recover from the Winter slowdown. In 2016, Easter is on March 27 while it was on April 5 in 2015. So the March numbers should get the Easter travel boost this year.

As for cheap gas, West Texas Intermediate has rebounded to $37/barrel and Brent Crude to $40/barrel over the past several weeks. Add in the normal price increases leading into Summer driving season, the prices at the pump should be going up soon. Not back to $3 a gallon, but the big drop at the pump of the past several months to the lowest levels in over a decade appears to be coming to an end. Whether the modest increase will have any effect on people deciding to take the train, hard to guess, but probably only a small effect.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Competing against cheap petrol and surviving shoddy schedule keeping have been part of Amtrak's struggle for as long as Amtrak has existed. Is there some definable reason conventional wisdom excludes the possibility that multiple rounds of fare increases, recurring service reductions, and large scale gutting of the loyalty program might be having a measurable impact on Amtrak's overall health?

 

[Acela150]

Anecdotal evidence, but, March may not be any better. I saw a manifest for 48 out of Chi tonight. The total pax in the 3 sleepers weren't enough to fill 1 sleeper! Total coach ridership, not even enough to fill 2 coaches! This looks like normal January ridership, not March!!!

I think Acela 150 hit it...Cheap Gas!

I was on the LSL and CL a couple of weeks ago. The LSL had plenty of open rooms. The CL had 2 sleepers and in each of them only two full bedrooms were sold. Much to my dismay on the Cap the Amish took up about half a dozen roomettes. I have never seen them in Sleeping accommodations. I am noticing that gas is slowly starting to go back up. But painfully slow. One thing is for sure. I'm not liking this cheap gas period. Railroads lost oil trains cause of the cheap prices. Which put guys out of work. Bottom line is it's a bad time to be a railroader.

 

[neroden]

The LSL ridership has never been terribly responsive to gas prices, and I'm not inclined to believe that they're having an effect there now. Remember, the parallel road route is a set of TOLL ROADS. The airline routes are also consistently expensive because they're out of "midsized" cities rather than big cities.

I think the catastrophically awful OTP last year from the NS Autorouter disaster is still having an effect, honestly. I said it would take at least two years to recover from the reputation hit. In this corridor, the long-time riders were used to Amtrak being a couple of hours late, not 14 hours late.

The terrible state of Amtrak's food service -- both dining car and cafe -- certainly does not help, though. Perhaps the best thing Amtrak could do quickly is to upgrade its "national" cafe car offerings to the Acela standard.

 

[Train2104]

Anecdotal evidence, but, March may not be any better. I saw a manifest for 48 out of Chi tonight. The total pax in the 3 sleepers weren't enough to fill 1 sleeper! Total coach ridership, not even enough to fill 2 coaches! This looks like normal January ridership, not March!!!

How many sleepers is 48/49 supposed to have now, with 448/449 being a shuttle? I've seen both 2 and 3.

The terrible state of Amtrak's food service -- both dining car and cafe -- certainly does not help, though. Perhaps the best thing Amtrak could do quickly is to upgrade its "national" cafe car offerings to the Acela standard.

The fresh wraps, etc. have a short shelf life and can't take a western LD roundtrip...it's apparently only good for the 3 day r/t to Miami on the Star. On the other one-night trains, not a bad idea, though.

 

[neroden]

The terrible state of Amtrak's food service -- both dining car and cafe -- certainly does not help, though. Perhaps the best thing Amtrak could do quickly is to upgrade its "national" cafe car offerings to the Acela standard.

The fresh wraps, etc. have a short shelf life and can't take a western LD roundtrip...it's apparently only good for the 3 day r/t to Miami on the Star. On the other one-night trains, not a bad idea, though.

All right. I'd totally settle for having them on the other one-night trains for now! It would be a great upgrade. LSL/CONO/Cardinal have commissaries at both ends so it should be possible to have fresh supply of wraps at both ends (even if they have to have a different vendor and different product for the eastbound out of Chicago than for the westbound out of New York). Actually, having a different wrap and salad eastbound ("Chicago" wrap and salad) from westbound ("New York" wrap and salad) might offer a form of variety which would be popular.

 

[jfandre]

Any possible explanations for the double digit gain on the CZ?

I bet it's due to the magical land of Colorado. Around Iowa City, the CZ is now referred to as the dope smokers train.

 

[OBS]

LSL operates with 3 sleepers currently, in and out of NYP

 

[Acela150]

Anecdotal evidence, but, March may not be any better. I saw a manifest for 48 out of Chi tonight. The total pax in the 3 sleepers weren't enough to fill 1 sleeper! Total coach ridership, not even enough to fill 2 coaches! This looks like normal January ridership, not March!!!

I think Acela 150 hit it...Cheap Gas!

We are still in early March. Don't know when the ridership in the northern parts of the US normally begins to recover from the Winter slowdown. In 2016, Easter is on March 27 while it was on April 5 in 2015. So the March numbers should get the Easter travel boost this year.

As for cheap gas, West Texas Intermediate has rebounded to $37/barrel and Brent Crude to $40/barrel over the past several weeks. Add in the normal price increases leading into Summer driving season, the prices at the pump should be going up soon. Not back to $3 a gallon, but the big drop at the pump of the past several months to the lowest levels in over a decade appears to be coming to an end. Whether the modest increase will have any effect on people deciding to take the train, hard to guess, but probably only a small effect.

I have been keeping an eye on the price of Crude and Gas on the Nasdaq's website.. Both are going back up.

 

[Train2104]

All right. I'd totally settle for having them on the other one-night trains for now! It would be a great upgrade. LSL/CONO/Cardinal have commissaries at both ends so it should be possible to have fresh supply of wraps at both ends (even if they have to have a different vendor and different product for the eastbound out of Chicago than for the westbound out of New York). Actually, having a different wrap and salad eastbound ("Chicago" wrap and salad) from westbound ("New York" wrap and salad) might offer a form of variety which would be popular.

They'd have to be different vendors if they're supplied in CHI, if you've ever looked at the label they're made local to NYC.

 

[keelhauled]

All right. I'd totally settle for having them on the other one-night trains for now! It would be a great upgrade. LSL/CONO/Cardinal have commissaries at both ends so it should be possible to have fresh supply of wraps at both ends (even if they have to have a different vendor and different product for the eastbound out of Chicago than for the westbound out of New York). Actually, having a different wrap and salad eastbound ("Chicago" wrap and salad) from westbound ("New York" wrap and salad) might offer a form of variety which would be popular.

They'd have to be different vendors if they're supplied in CHI, if you've ever looked at the label they're made local to NYC.

I happen to have the remains of my lunch next to me; the container my wrap came in says it was made by York Street Catering in Englewood NJ.

 

[Train2104]

Meanwhile, on 43 right now, the wraps are sold out. Which probably means none to start the trip on 42 in the morning...

 

[neroden]

All right. I'd totally settle for having them on the other one-night trains for now! It would be a great upgrade. LSL/CONO/Cardinal have commissaries at both ends so it should be possible to have fresh supply of wraps at both ends (even if they have to have a different vendor and different product for the eastbound out of Chicago than for the westbound out of New York). Actually, having a different wrap and salad eastbound ("Chicago" wrap and salad) from westbound ("New York" wrap and salad) might offer a form of variety which would be popular.

They'd have to be different vendors if they're supplied in CHI, if you've ever looked at the label they're made local to NYC.

Yes, I have looked at the label and I was thinking of that specifically.

I'm sure there's a suitable vendor in the Chicago area. And I think Amtrak is quite capable of offering an "eastbound menu" and a "westbound menu".

The Pennsylvanian would probably be better off in regards to stocking if it had a cafe running through to Chicago and restocked at that end... maybe Amtrak should consider actually implementing the PIPs...