July Performance Reports

[Bob Dylan]

I'm not an Accountant but as a Retired Government Employee I can say that trying to understand Government Accounting (aka Smoke and Mirrors ) is like trying to Read Graphics in Ancient Tombs and Long Dead Languages! Mark Twain Famously said that there were Three Kinds of Lies: Lies,Damn Lies and Statistics!

I enjoy the Discussion, and the fact that some members enjoy this Hobby, but dont think anyone should let themselves get Bothered by what they consider Bad Info since No-one on AU really Knows, or will EVER Know!, the True Numbers from Amtrak! h34r:

 

[MikefromCrete]

I'm not an Accountant but as a Retired Government Employee I can say that trying to understand Government Accounting (aka Smoke and Mirrors ) is like trying to Read Graphics in Ancient Tombs and Long Dead Languages! Mark Twain Famously said that there were Three Kinds of Lies: Lies,Damn Lies and Statistics!

I enjoy the Discussion, and the fact that some members enjoy this Hobby, but dont think anyone should let themselves get Bothered by what they consider Bad Info since No-one on AU really Knows, or will EVER Know!, the True Numbers from Amtrak! h34r:

I agree, Jim. There's no logical way to figure out any government budget, from the smallest town to the federal government. Trying to work out Amtrak's revenues and expenditures from the outside is probably impossible. Good luck, Anderson and the rest of you, but you'll eventually drive yourself crazy.

 

[afigg]

On the LSL: Part of the lower revenue production there (vis-a-vis the Meteor) is in the schedule, I suspect. Basically, the WB train has nice times and is a decent choice for getting to CHI. The EB train, on the other hand, basically burns a whole day getting to NYP. At least if I had to guess (and Amtrak broadly concurs), this generates empty space EB. The Meteor is more symmetrical in this regard. In this vein, the Meteor has (at least for the last ten months) 35,166 sleeper pax vs. 29,007 on the LSL. That comes to about a $1.8m difference in sleeper revenue.

The FY2011 PRIIA PIP recommendations for the LSL projected an increase of 18.6K passengers and $2.0 million in revenue by moving the LSL back to an earlier CHI departure. The LSL, Crescent, Silver set of PIP reports is now 2 years old. Still no word on when or if the LSL and Capitol Limited might change their CHI departure times. Could be because CSX has more tunnel work scheduled or the constantly late EB is keeping the LSL from an earlier departure until the EB situation improves.
Interesting comparing the proportion of sleeper versus coach passengers between the LSL and Meteor. LSL sells more coach tickets, but the LSL gets a lower revenue total, while Meteor has more sleeper sales and sleeper revenue. Some of the different in coach revenue has to be due to higher cost NEC sakes, but does the Meteor turn over the roomettes more often on the trip?

Anyway, we will probably have the August report and numbers to review sometime next week.

 

[Bob Dylan]

I'm not an Accountant but as a Retired Government Employee I can say that trying to understand Government Accounting (aka Smoke and Mirrors ) is like trying to Read Graphics in Ancient Tombs and Long Dead Languages! Mark Twain Famously said that there were Three Kinds of Lies: Lies,Damn Lies and Statistics!

I enjoy the Discussion, and the fact that some members enjoy this Hobby, but dont think anyone should let themselves get Bothered by what they consider Bad Info since No-one on AU really Knows, or will EVER Know!, the True Numbers from Amtrak! h34r:

I agree, Jim. There's no logical way to figure out any government budget, from the smallest town to the federal government. Trying to work out Amtrak's revenues and expenditures from the outside is probably impossible. Good luck, Anderson and the rest of you, but you'll eventually drive yourself crazy.

When I was in Graduate School working on my MPA Mandatory Courses were Budgeting and Public Finance, the Numbers Wizards that are Accountants taught us Some of the Secrets of Public Budgeting and Accounting, but Not All! h34r: Thats the Age Old Way of every Profession, make Yourself Indespensable and Seemingly Knowledgable by creating Secret ways that only I/WE can handle! Congress has this down to an Art,( hence the Smoke and Mirrors comment) and every Department and Agency of Government at all Levels has created their own Secret Accounting System! :blink:

 

[henryj]

I put in 10 OBS for the Meteor. I used $50 an hour because you have to double to include benefits. I used 28 hours for it also. On the LSL I used 23 hours for the Boston section and 19 for the NY section. I had used OBS crews of 3 and 8, but I can reduce the NY section to 7. So now we have OBS for the Meteor of 8.4 mil and the LSL of 6.1 mil.

So let's see, for the Meteor you use the actual running times to calculate your numbers, but for the LSL you use an extra hour. Is this so you can keep the expenses higher than they need to be?

For T&E I always use 4 man crews and I used a higher rate for the LSL, $115/hr for the LSL vs $95/hr for the Meteor.

AFAIK, the LSL uses largely 3 man operating crews. The Meteor does so too for part of the run, but I do believe that there are a few stretches where it's 4 man operating crews.

The Meteor is still less because the LSL has the Boston section to contend with as a separate train and the rate diff.

Huh? :unsure:

Maintenance costs at 11 cars per train(incl engines) for the Meteor are 9.3 mil and for the LSL 15 cars, 10 to NY and 5 to Boston, total 9.2 mil.

Again, padding the numbers in favor of the Meteor for some reason. The Meteor is 12 cars, if you include engines.

Ok, I will add one car to the Meteor. So it has four coaches then? I know some of these trains have only one person in the cab. Is that what you mean by a 3 person crew? I don't think it matters much, but to be consistent I just use 4. It makes up for anything else I might have left out. How many crew and cars does the Crescent and the Star have? The timetable I have shows 19 hours westbound and 20 hours eastbound vs NY? And yes you are right Alan..........I just hate the LSL. lol. I appreciate the positive comments and any helpful information is greatly appreciated also. Like someone said, it's the government and who knows what the real costs are. Amtrak allocates 80% of their costs so even they probably don't know. I have seen at least three different reports on the LSL and all had different numbers. These reports aren't audited so Amtrak can just arrange them to suit their needs. And our Congressmen that read this stuff are all lawyers anyway and apparently never question any of it.

 

[henryj]

I'm not an Accountant but as a Retired Government Employee I can say that trying to understand Government Accounting (aka Smoke and Mirrors ) is like trying to Read Graphics in Ancient Tombs and Long Dead Languages! Mark Twain Famously said that there were Three Kinds of Lies: Lies,Damn Lies and Statistics!

I enjoy the Discussion, and the fact that some members enjoy this Hobby, but dont think anyone should let themselves get Bothered by what they consider Bad Info since No-one on AU really Knows, or will EVER Know!, the True Numbers from Amtrak! h34r:

I agree, Jim. There's no logical way to figure out any government budget, from the smallest town to the federal government. Trying to work out Amtrak's revenues and expenditures from the outside is probably impossible. Good luck, Anderson and the rest of you, but you'll eventually drive yourself crazy.

No, I will quit before then. lol.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I find I cannot help but wonder what the follow-on answers might be.

For instance, if Amtrak were able to secure substantial funding in order to purchase a large fleet of new coaches and sleepers on extremely favorable terms would there be a point at which some long distance routes would be able to break even simply through having access to another sleeper, or two, or ten?

I know this might sound outlandish, but there are stories of airlines managing to negotiate funding and leasing terms that seemed so favorable as to be an indirect investment in the carrier itself.

If Amtrak were free to manage its own affairs and were lucky enough to find a willing investor (or two, or ten) then it might seem, however naive, that they could break even depending on the route and season.

 

[trainman74]

Incidentally, I was recently talking to someone who's in management at a major musical-instrument retailer, and he told me they were trying to hire a certain business analyst away from Amtrak -- so they do have at least one business analyst who's competent enough (or at least has a good enough resume) to attract interest from the private sector.

 

[haolerider]

I put in 10 OBS for the Meteor. I used $50 an hour because you have to double to include benefits. I used 28 hours for it also. On the LSL I used 23 hours for the Boston section and 19 for the NY section. I had used OBS crews of 3 and 8, but I can reduce the NY section to 7. So now we have OBS for the Meteor of 8.4 mil and the LSL of 6.1 mil.

So let's see, for the Meteor you use the actual running times to calculate your numbers, but for the LSL you use an extra hour. Is this so you can keep the expenses higher than they need to be?

For T&E I always use 4 man crews and I used a higher rate for the LSL, $115/hr for the LSL vs $95/hr for the Meteor.

Henry, give it up! If you don't know how many cars the Crescent and the Star have, how cn you even think you can discover true revenue vs. costs? AFAIK, the LSL uses largely 3 man operating crews. The Meteor does so too for part of the run, but I do believe that there are a few stretches where it's 4 man operating crews.

The Meteor is still less because the LSL has the Boston section to contend with as a separate train and the rate diff.

Huh? :unsure:

Maintenance costs at 11 cars per train(incl engines) for the Meteor are 9.3 mil and for the LSL 15 cars, 10 to NY and 5 to Boston, total 9.2 mil.

Again, padding the numbers in favor of the Meteor for some reason. The Meteor is 12 cars, if you include engines.

Ok, I will add one car to the Meteor. So it has four coaches then? I know some of these trains have only one person in the cab. Is that what you mean by a 3 person crew? I don't think it matters much, but to be consistent I just use 4. It makes up for anything else I might have left out. How many crew and cars does the Crescent and the Star have? The timetable I have shows 19 hours westbound and 20 hours eastbound vs NY? And yes you are right Alan..........I just hate the LSL. lol. I appreciate the positive comments and any helpful information is greatly appreciated also. Like someone said, it's the government and who knows what the real costs are. Amtrak allocates 80% of their costs so even they probably don't know. I have seen at least three different reports on the LSL and all had different numbers. These reports aren't audited so Amtrak can just arrange them to suit their needs. And our Congressmen that read this stuff are all lawyers anyway and apparently never question any of it.

 

[afigg]

I find I cannot help but wonder what the follow-on answers might be.

For instance, if Amtrak were able to secure substantial funding in order to purchase a large fleet of new coaches and sleepers on extremely favorable terms would there be a point at which some long distance routes would be able to break even simply through having access to another sleeper, or two, or ten?

Amtrak will be doing this in a limited fashion with the Viewliner II order. There will be 25 additional sleepers and 25 baggage-dorm cars for the eastern LD fleet with about 19-20 of each available for daily service which will provide a boost in sleeper capacity and revenue. However, keep in mind, that this discussion has been mainly about covering the direct operating costs. Can't run the LD trains without a support structure and overhead.
New equipment with greater reliability, hopefully lower maintenance costs, and greater capacity would help with the Superliner LD trains and with Amfleet II replacements for the single level LD trains. But it won't make the longer LD train routes profitable. More 79, 90, 110 mph corridor and commuter services that overlap with the LD trains would likely make a bigger difference with reduced trip times, improved OTP, more shared track and station costs.

 

[henryj]

Henry, give it up! If you don't know how many cars the Crescent and the Star have, how cn you even think you can discover true revenue vs. costs?

AFAIK, the LSL uses largely 3 man operating crews. The Meteor does so too for part of the run, but I do believe that there are a few stretches where it's 4 man operating crews.

Maintenance costs at 11 cars per train(incl engines) for the Meteor are 9.3 mil and for the LSL 15 cars, 10 to NY and 5 to Boston, total 9.2 mil.

Actually the consists for all the long distance trains was published on here some time ago. I just use that. Plus there are always trip reports and comments that give consist stats. I don't live in NY so I can't go down to Penn Station and count cars, that is why I asked the question As to staffing, I just count cars and add staff accordingly. If it's different from that...........I asked the question. Otherwise I use the information I have. I think I get pretty close. It's all an estimate anyway. What it shows is which trains come close to covering their operating or avoidable costs. None of them except maybe Auto Train cover any substantial amount of their overhead. Would they do better with more equipment and hence more capacity? Yes I think they would. Could they actually be 'profitable'? Maybe, but not as a government run agency like Amtrak and right now I don't think any private company could make a go of it. But when gasoline hits $10/gal...............who knows. lol

 

[Nathanael]

The FY2011 PRIIA PIP recommendations for the LSL projected an increase of 18.6K passengers and $2.0 million in revenue by moving the LSL back to an earlier CHI departure. The LSL, Crescent, Silver set of PIP reports is now 2 years old. Still no word on when or if the LSL and Capitol Limited might change their CHI departure times. Could be because CSX has more tunnel work scheduled

Could be. CSX was still doing overnight work on the Capitol Limited route as recently as what, last month?

or the constantly late EB is keeping the LSL from an earlier departure until the EB situation improves.

Could be that too.
Or it could also be that CSX is simply being difficult because of jerkish management attitudes. Since Amtrak sued UP, UP has had pretty good on-time performance; since Amtrak filed at the STB about CN, CN has had pretty good on-time performance except in Canada (where I assume they feel that Amtrak has no power; they treat the Adirondack horribly). CSX is now registering the worst on-time performance, it's almost all "freight train interference", and CSX has specifically been hammering the Empire Corridor. This was in the July Performance Report...

It is unfortunate that New York State was run by backward-thinking people during the Conrail era; state purchase of the Empire Corridor back then would have prevented a lot of trouble later. Heck, it really should have been bought out of Penn Central.

 

[Anderson]

The FY2011 PRIIA PIP recommendations for the LSL projected an increase of 18.6K passengers and $2.0 million in revenue by moving the LSL back to an earlier CHI departure. The LSL, Crescent, Silver set of PIP reports is now 2 years old. Still no word on when or if the LSL and Capitol Limited might change their CHI departure times. Could be because CSX has more tunnel work scheduled

Could be. CSX was still doing overnight work on the Capitol Limited route as recently as what, last month?

or the constantly late EB is keeping the LSL from an earlier departure until the EB situation improves.

Could be that too.
Or it could also be that CSX is simply being difficult because of jerkish management attitudes. Since Amtrak sued UP, UP has had pretty good on-time performance; since Amtrak filed at the STB about CN, CN has had pretty good on-time performance except in Canada (where I assume they feel that Amtrak has no power; they treat the Adirondack horribly). CSX is now registering the worst on-time performance, it's almost all "freight train interference", and CSX has specifically been hammering the Empire Corridor. This was in the July Performance Report...

It is unfortunate that New York State was run by backward-thinking people during the Conrail era; state purchase of the Empire Corridor back then would have prevented a lot of trouble later. Heck, it really should have been bought out of Penn Central.

I'm actually surprised Rockefeller didn't try that. Of course, given the sheer length of it compared to the other state-owned corridors, cost eventually becomes an issue on something like this.

 

[jis]

In the PC to Conrail transition NY State acquired their part of the NEC ex-Grand Central, which is what carried the most passengers as far as NY State was concerned, and is now part of MNRR's New Haven Line. In the same time frame NY State also acquired the Penn Station slots and traffic rights through Harold, while New Jersey dithered. The results are apparent at Penn Station. AFAIK the water level route was never offered for sale since the people managing PC and later the creation of Conrail may have been many things, but they were not idiots. There was no way they were going to offer the section west of Hoffmans for sale to anyone while maximizing value of the franchise that was eventually to become Conrail.

Remember, even then the primary goal was to rescue and maximize value of the freight railroads, with passenger considerations a distant second.

 

[PRR 60]

In the PC to Conrail transition NY State acquired their part of the NEC ex-Grand Central, which is what carried the most passengers as far as NY State was concerned, and is now part of MNRR's New Haven Line. In the same time frame NY State also acquired the Penn Station slots and traffic rights through Harold, while New Jersey dithered. The results are apparent at Penn Station. AFAIK the water level route was never offered for sale since the people managing PC and later the creation of Conrail may have been many things, but they were not idiots. There was no way they were going to offer the section west of Hoffmans for sale to anyone while maximizing value of the franchise that was eventually to become Conrail.

Remember, even then the primary goal was to rescue and maximize value of the freight railroads, with passenger considerations a distant second.

The New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts ownership of the NEC dates from 1971 when the three states acquired the various portions of line from Penn Central. The PC to Conrail transition occurred in 1976. Amtrak took ownership of the remaining PC-owned portions of the NEC as a part of that transition.

 

[jis]

Yes, you are correct. Now that you mention it, IIRC it was in 1971 that LIRR also took possession of the slots at Penn Station. NJ was offered the same but declined.

I don't think at any of those times the freight trunks were offered to states to take over, since that would have made the eventual disposition of the freight railroad properties in the eventual form of Conrail more difficult.

What I don't remember is at what point actual operations on those tracks were fully taken over. NJT did not occur until 1976. Until then PC continued to operate NJDOT funded service in NJ.