Covid Mask Mandate for Transportation

[joelkfla]

While the general gist of neroden's post is absolutely correct, the numerical implication is a bit off.

Assuming these estimates of "vaccine effectiveness" are calculated similar to that of the clinical trials, when they say that the vaccine is "64% effective at preventing infection" that means that the if, say, if the overall infection rate is x, then those who are vaccinated will get infected at a rate of 36% compared to those who aren't vaccinated. Even in hotspots, the total rate of infection among the total population is pretty small, so it's not like you have a 36% chance of being infected even if you're vaccinated and unmasked. If the infection rate is, say, 1% of the total population, then an unmasked vaccinated person's chance of being infected is 1% of 36% (0.01x0.36) or 0.0036, or 0.36%. Thus, even if you're not wearing a mask, your chances of getting infected are fairly low. However, bear in mind that 0.36% of 300 million people is almost 11 million people, so even if everyone was vaccinated, a lot of people could still get infected. Even if people don't get really sick, this gives the virus more chances to mutate to new variants that might be more of a problem.

Now I don't have off the top of my head the experimental and epidemiological data that quantify the beneficial effect of mask wearing, but the one experimental study I did read about aerosols suggested that masks reduce the number of aerosol particles roughly 5-fold. (I.e., wear a mask, emit 1/5th the # of aerosol particles). If the reduction in aerosol particles is linearly related to the reduction in infections, then wearing a mask would reduce the infection rate by 80%. This would be .01 x .036 x .2 or 0.000072 or .0072%. This means that the 11 million people who might get infected from asymptomatic unmasked vaccinated people would be reduced to 2.2 million if these people were all masked. (This is not counting the protective aspect that wearing a mask offers to the mask-wearer which also reduces infection rates.)

While this means you don't have a 36% chance of catching the virus if your vaccinated and unmasked, so there's no need to totally freak out about the Israeli reports, it does mean, as neroden wrote, "vaccinated people can be carriers" at a rate higher than previously thought. Thus, we need to do more to break the chain of transmission. One of the best ways to do that is to wear a mask indoors in crowded places, even if you're vaccinated. I would think that being in an Amtrak train would count as being "indoors in a crowded place," especially now that they're selling all the seats with apparently the train consists are still shorter than usual. I'm not sure what the problem is in having a mask requirement as a tradeoff to allow other activities to be able to go on as normal.

As I've said before, I really don't understand why some people are being obstinate about this. Wearing a mask is no big deal. If we really want to go back to "normal" (whatever that is), wearing a mask is something that just has to be done.

Yeah, what he said.

 

[me_little_me]

Thanks again for that. Amazing to what extent people will go to try to justify not wearing masks. Just walk by a playground and look at dozens of unvaccinated children. And despite being vaccinated, I have a 36% chance of catching it and passing it on to them, even if I feel fine. Anyone that chooses not to wear a mask is basically guilty of child abuse.

As of July 1, over 4 million children have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

If your TV tells you that you have the right to put children into a hospital, stick a tube down their throat, and possibly die, you might want to get your news from another source.

Figures don't lie but liars can figure.

First, you or I DO NOT have a 36% chance of catching it and passing it on to them, even if you feel fine. You are just inventing statistics. Please don't help them.

IF you get close enough to catch it from someone who is contagious and IF they spread their germs to you and IF it takes hold and IF you then get to close to and spread your germs to and IF you pass it on to a child, they MAY get the disease. But if you have at least half a brain (which you proved you had when you got vaccinated), you'd probably tend to avoid situations like that and take care to wash hands and avoid touching your face IF there is virus on your hands and avoid kids if you exhibit symptoms.

And because a vaccinated person feels they don't need to wear a mask in most situations, that doesn't make them guilty of child abuse. That statement is unworthy of even the no-brainers on the other side.

All you have done is given the other side more "evidence" that those of us who believe in vaccines and masks are as dumb as they are.

 

[MARC Rider]

That’s what I never understood about restaurants being open with indoor seating. Does the virus say “oh no they are eating, we don’t want to bother them, let’s come back later”

The restaurants with indoor seating that I've seen have (1) increased the space between tables, (2) erected partitions between tables, and (3) modified and increased ventilation of the space. All of these reduce aerosol spread between groups of diners.

 

[MARC Rider]

Anyone that chooses not to wear a mask is basically guilty of child abuse.

Uh, that's a little over the top. For one thing, there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between not wearing a mask and infecting a child. For another thing, my understanding is that children who get infected get less sick than older adults. Given that seniors are more at risk for serious life-threatening infections, one might say that not wearing a mask would be more likely construed as "elder abuse," though , of course, that's over the top, too. Also, the risk of not wearing a mask might be that it's the asymptomatic infected child that infects to non-mask-wearing adult.

Of course, it's not good to have lots of asymptomatic infected children running around, as they will pass the virus on to adults as well as children.

The most accurate thing to say about refusal to wear masks is that it's irresponsible. If I were an employer, refusal to wear a mask and, especially, speaking forcefully about it, would be something that would make me look negatively towards a job applicant or employee.

 

[Tlcooper93]

As I've said before, I really don't understand why some people are being obstinate about this. Wearing a mask is no big deal. If we really want to go back to "normal" (whatever that is), wearing a mask is something that just has to be done.

That said, I do believe there is a difference between having a controversial belief (such as thinking it’s possible to re-evaluate mask’s effectiveness at this point in the pandemic), and still conceding that you could be wrong and still mask up regardless.

I think people jumping on IndyLions for simply positing the possibility of alternate interpretation that could end up being true with hindsight, is just as foolish, especially as he gracefully reiterated that he masks up.

 

[MARC Rider]

That said, I do believe there is a difference between having a controversial belief (such as thinking it’s possible to re-evaluate masks effectiveness at this point in the pandemic), and still conceding that you could be wrong and still mask up regardless.

I think people jumping on IndyLions for simply positing the possibility of alternate interpretation that could end up being true with hindsight, is just as foolish

The problem is is that the controversial belief wasn't backed up with any good evidence to support it. If there's one thing that really annoys me, it's controversy for the sake of controversy. It's the bane of modern discourse.

 

[Tlcooper93]

The problem is is that the controversial belief wasn't backed up with any good evidence to support it. If there's one thing that really annoys me, it's controversy for the sake of controversy. It's the bane of modern discourse.

fair enough, but you were far more graceful than others in your version of discourse.

given that no one here is an expert in the field, IndyLion’s opinion is worth about as much to me as other’s opinions (my own included).

I plan on masking up till the end, but I’m not going to be a jerk and jump on people for merely wondering if it’s still useful.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

That said, I do believe there is a difference between having a controversial belief (such as thinking it’s possible to re-evaluate mask’s effectiveness at this point in the pandemic), and still conceding that you could be wrong and still mask up regardless.

I think people jumping on IndyLions for simply positing the possibility of alternate interpretation that could end up being true with hindsight, is just as foolish, especially as he gracefully reiterated that he masks up.

He said he masks up ONLY if it’s mandated. Others are saying we should mask up even if it isn’t mandated (follow the science, not the politicians ).
I waited 3 weeks after my state’s mandate was relaxed. I wanted to see if the #’s were still dropping or holding steady - and not going up again. I’m still watching the numbers and they have gone back up a little but not enough yet for me to start wearing my mask more often. I do avoid crowded indoor places. And I carry a mask with me in case I find myself in a crowded area.

 

[Ryan]

If you can’t put forth an argument other than - “we’re right and you’re stupid - and here’s our statistics to prove it” - then we’ll have to agree to disagree.

That's a gross mischaracterization of the argument put forward. Nathaniel put forward an argument with facts and data. You put forth an argument with nothing other than "I don't believe that, so I'm not going to wear a mask unless the government tells me that I have to".

One of these arguments is based in reality. The other has nothing behind it. Being liberal or conservative has nothing to do with it as you've unintentionally proven by claiming to be a liberal-leaning moderate but still making a factually deficient argument. There are fools and science deniers everywhere on the political spectrum, along with people that can look at data, make logical conclusions and think for themselves for a minute.

I'm not saying that you have to wear a mask everywhere. But there are absolutely situations where they are warranted, even if the government isn't requiring them at the moment.

 

[Exvalley]

Nathaniel put forward an argument with facts and data. You put forth an argument with nothing other than "I don't believe that, so I'm not going to wear a mask unless the government tells me that I have to".

One of these arguments is based in reality.

To be fair, according to MARC Rider, Nathaniel's argument grossly overstated the likelihood of becoming infected when he said this:

So if vaccinated people are wandering around without masks, then *about 1/3 of them* are *catching the disease and transmitting it to others*.

So, no, one of the arguments was not "based in reality" inasmuch as that is a HUGE error. I would hate to see policy being made based on an error like that. The overall point is valid, though. Vaccines are not 100% effective and mask wearing still helps.

Personally, I see no harm in wearing a mask for the time being when social distancing cannot be maintained. On the other hand, I have no problem if someone chooses not to wear a mask if the rules do not require the wearing of a mask - even if it would be my personal preference that they wear a mask.

The only thing I know for certain is that scientists will spend many years unpacking the data to determine if our response to the pandemic was the most effective.

 

[jis]

The thing that people forget is that in all Security and Safety protocols, there are multiple layers precisely because no single layer does it all. The example given is that of many layers of Swiss Cheese. Fewer layers leaves a few holes, a single layer leaves some big holes, but well structured sufficient number of layers blocks most if not all holes.

Masks are one of the layers in the safety protocol. If you avoid it you leave a few additional holes in your armor. Same with vaccines and various other protection measures.

At the end of the day others will do whatever they will do. All that each individual can do is protect one self and do prudent things to protect others from oneself, usually in that order of priority. If someone refuses to protect oneself it is not clear what can be done in a liberal permissive society.

 

[Danib62]

Just to clear one thing up, if a vaccine is 67% effective, that doesn't mean that 33% of people who are vaccinated will get COVID. It means that there are 67% fewer COVID cases amongst vaccinated people than amongst non-vaccinated.

For example if you have a group of 1000 unvaccinated people and in a given time period 100 get COVID it means that all other things being equal in a group of 1000 vaccinated people only 33 will get COVID (a 67% reduction in the number of cases).

 

[Ryan]

The overall point is valid, though. Vaccines are not 100% effective and mask wearing still helps.

Yes, the numbers were off but as you note the overall point remains valid. Still far more convincing than the complete lack of anything on the other side of the coin.

On the other hand, I have no problem if someone chooses not to wear a mask if the rules do not require the wearing of a mask

That's where we differ. If we're in a situation where masks are important, and I'm there with my (masked) masked 9 year old that can't be vaccinated, I'm going to have a big problem with you not wearing a mask as well. Easily avoided by mostly avoiding the situation altogether, but it be great if people were a little less selfish and thought of others when making their decisions.

 

[Exvalley]

If we're in a situation where masks are important, and I'm there with my (masked) masked 9 year old that can't be vaccinated, I'm going to have a big problem with you not wearing a mask as well.

Notice that I said, "If the rules do not require the wearing of a mask."

I have an issue telling someone off if, at the end of the day, they are abiding by the rules. I may not like it, but the rules are what they are - and aren't what they aren't.

 

[Asher]

 

[Qapla]

Just because there is not a "mandate" to wear a mask - that is totally different from there being a "No Masks Allowed" rule.

In the event of no mandate - one can opt to wear one anyway. There does not have to be a mandate to be considerate of others and do all we can to stop the spread of C-19.

Think of it this way - if there was a 4-way intersection with a traffic light and the light quit working and there were no stop signs or any one there directing traffic - would we just drive through without looking or even slowing down because "there was no traffic light anymore" ... or, would we still use caution?

 

[me_little_me]

Think of it this way - if there was a 4-way intersection with a traffic light and the light quit working and there were no stop signs or any one there directing traffic - would we just drive through without looking or even slowing down because "there was no traffic light anymore" ... or, would we still use caution?

That could get you a ticket. I believe all states have standardized that a non-working light is to be treated as a all-way stop sign.

Update: Per Michigan State Police, they say it should be considered a "four way yield" in that state. Fat chance of people doing that.

 

[IndyLions]

There has been some good discourse here - some good food for thought for sure.

The biggest issue I have with these arguments is that we end up assuming the worst of each other.

Ryan - rest assured that I am fully aware that children like your 9yo have not been vaccinated - and if I’m in a situation where social distancing is not an option or if I will be around a number of children - I will be masked up whether or not it is mandated. I stated that I always wear a mask when mandated - I didn’t state that I ONLY wear a mask when mandated. But I understand your assumption, even if it was wrong.

Neroden - my main issue with your argument were not your facts, but the way you presented them. That being said, I have written snarky and condescending posts before, so it would be completely hypocritical of me to pretend otherwise. I think you’re a smart guy, I respect your opinion - and I know for a fact that you’re passionate about the subject.

After hearing some well stated arguments, (looking at you MARC) - I do now agree that it is too early to lift the transportation mask mandate.

Will I be wearing a mask everywhere I go in public? In my case, no. But I will continue to be prepared to react appropriately if the situation around me changes.

 

[Bob Dylan]

I'm really hoping that Presidenf Biden and Congress will extend the Mask Mandate on Public Transportation at least till the Spring of 2022.

There's still far too many Unvaccinated People, the Delta Variant is spreading like Wild Fire among the Unvaccinated,Travel is booming, folks are acting like the Pandemic is over when it's not, and School will start in August with Millions of Un-vaccinated Youngsters returning to the Classrooms.

Even if the Mandate was to expire and not be renewed, I would still Wear my Mask when traveling unless I was in a Sleeper Room or Eating and Drinking while Socially Distanced from those I don't know.

 

[Qapla]

That could get you a ticket. I believe all states have standardized that a non-working light is to be treated as a all-way stop sign

That may be - however, I doubt that our first thought if we came to such an intersection would be avoiding a ticket. Most of us would react out of concern for our safety and take the proper steps to insure the safety of us and others without knowing or thinking about the legality of the matter.

 

[neroden]

I just had the audacity to state that I wasn’t convinced that masking up vaccinated people is going to end the pandemic any sooner - since such a large percentage of Americans have made it clear they’re not getting vaccinated anytime soon.

OK, so my perspective might explain why I'm angry about this.

Masking up vaccinated people will end the pandemic sooner where I live.

It'll end it sooner here in Ithaca, NY (Tompkins County) where we have a pretty high rate of vaccination -- one of the highest in the country! -- but practically everyone has abandoned their masks and are having large indoor gatherings now.

Of course once the vaccinated people removed their masks, the vaccine-refusing jackasses are removing their masks and pretending to be vaccinated.

With our rate of vaccination, if people kept wearing masks, we could actually get it permanently under control here.

However, instead nearly everyone has removed their masks -- including many of those under 12, who definitely aren't vaccinated -- and are having large indoor gatherings.

This extended recklessness is going to increase the odds of infection by enough to overwhelm the benefits we were getting from our high vaccination rate. That's the current main risk where I live and I'm tearing my hair out about it.

 

[Brian Battuello]

Just a data point, I'm on an Acela from NYC to BOS and there was an Amtrak employee in an unusual uniform walking through the train and enforcing mask compliance. He wasn't in the usual conductor or attendant garb, he was wearing blue pants, white shirt and of all things, a large bow tie. He was polite but stopped at every seat and told people to put their masks fully over their noses unless they had actual food or drink in front of them. There were a few dirty looks from casual mask avoiders, but no one argued with him. He didn't move on until the mask was correctly in place.

I'm 100% in favor of mask wearing, but this was a little strange.

 

[daybeers]

Just a data point, I'm on an Acela from NYC to BOS and there was an Amtrak employee in an unusual uniform walking through the train and enforcing mask compliance. He wasn't in the usual conductor or attendant garb, he was wearing blue pants, white shirt and of all things, a large bow tie. He was polite but stopped at every seat and told people to put their masks fully over their noses unless they had actual food or drink in front of them. There were a few dirty looks from casual mask avoiders, but no one argued with him. He didn't move on until the mask was correctly in place.

I'm 100% in favor of mask wearing, but this was a little strange.

Honestly happy to see that. Metro-North and Amtrak trains I've been on recently haven't had the best enforcement, unfortunately.

 

[IndyLions]

Just a data point, I'm on an Acela from NYC to BOS and there was an Amtrak employee in an unusual uniform walking through the train and enforcing mask compliance. He wasn't in the usual conductor or attendant garb, he was wearing blue pants, white shirt and of all things, a large bow tie. He was polite but stopped at every seat and told people to put their masks fully over their noses unless they had actual food or drink in front of them. There were a few dirty looks from casual mask avoiders, but no one argued with him. He didn't move on until the mask was correctly in place.

I'm 100% in favor of mask wearing, but this was a little strange.

Now that’s tough duty, mask enforcement. But kudos if this is some sort of effort by Amtrak to do the enforcement and not just let it slide. And kudos to the employee for his attitude and approach. Again, that’s tough duty.

 

[west point]

Got my 2nd shot Feb28. About May slacked up on mask wearing but by June full mask again after "Delta" started to showing up. My biggest worry is that otherwise I could become asymptomatic and spread it to non vaccinated persons. That is especially for my relations that are under 12. Anyone not vaccinated better not get around them and cause any to get "delta" or any other variant.. 99% of C-19 deaths now are non vaccinated persons.

It distress us that the approval for under 12s is taking so long. Would not want to be in any of all school official positions that has as unvaccinated child die .