"Population Density"

[TVRM610]

So about 90% of the time that I suggest to someone that we need more passenger trains in the USA I hear "Well you know Europe has a nice rail system but they have a much larger population density so it works for them." I honestly don't understand this argument. I have never been to Europe but when I look at their rail map I see what is needed in the USA. High Speed Corridors between major cities in dense population centers, connected with slower "conventional rail."

Is the population density really that different?

Another common myth that I hear is that "over in Europe all of their trains run 200 MPH." Well not really, the map below has alot more grey (speeds under 125 mph) than anything else. The yellow lines have top speeds of 125-142mph. Only the few red lines have speeds approaching 200 mph. I'm not saying Europe is not ahead of us, they are. But many of their lines have Amtrak like speeds.

The good news IMHO is that Amtrak is going in this direction, increasing the speeds of corridors, and using the LD trains to "link" the high(er) speed corridors. It's certainly a step in the right direction.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:High_Speed_Rail_Map_Europe.gif

 

[MrEd]

The United States is almost two and a half times the size of the European Union.

France is slightly smaller than the state of Texas.

 

[the_traveler]

Just the 6 New England states, plus NY, NJ and PA is just smaller than the size of all of Europe!

 

[john h]

FYI from wiki

"If you include Iceland, Greenland, and the UK, Europe has 4.0 million square miles, With all 50 states USA has 3.79 million square miles"

 

[Ryan]

False.

Europe: 3.9 million square miles

US: 3.79 million square miles

 

[TransitGeek]

The United States is almost two and a half times the size of the European Union.

France is slightly smaller than the state of Texas.

You're including Alaska and Hawaii. The continental United States has a land area of 7.6m km², compared to 4.3m km² for the EU. So the EU is 56% of the size of the comparable unit, the lower 48. Of course, the EU is not all of Europe.

As far as density goes, density is indeed important. However, the density of the United States is an interesting subject. Some regions have EU-like density, most notably the coasts and Chicagoland, and the vast middle of the country doesn't. What this tells me, at least, vis-a-vis rail is that we ought to have HSR on the coasts and in Chicagoland, connected by conventional rail across the midwest, plains and mountain states.

 

[the_traveler]

FYI from wiki

"If you include Iceland, Greenland, and the UK, Europe has 4.0 million square miles, With all 50 states USA has 3.79 million square miles"

As unbelievable as it is, Wikipedia is wrong!

Greenland is not in Europe. Officially, it is considered North America. Iceland is considered to be Europe.

 

[TVRM610]

I edited out my comment about Europe being larger, one web site had Europe being larger, it's clear that how you measure Europe seems to differ on what you count or don't count.

Mr Ed certainly pointed me in the right direction, France and Texas do have vastly different population densities.

France - 301 p/sq. m

Texas - 96.3

 

[Ryan]

FYI from wiki

"If you include Iceland, Greenland, and the UK, Europe has 4.0 million square miles, With all 50 states USA has 3.79 million square miles"

As unbelievable as it is, Wikipedia is wrong!

Greenland is not in Europe. Officially, it is considered North America. Iceland is considered to be Europe.

My number didn't include Greenland - Europe is still larger (Greenland is a little over 830,000 square miles).

 

[Eric S]

Europe (not just EU nations) = 3.93 million sq mi; population 731 million; density 186 per sq mi

EU = 1.69 million sq mi; population 501 million; density 296 per sq mi

USA (50 states) = 3.79 million sq mi; population 309 million; density 82 per sq mi

USA (48 contiguous states) = 3.12 million sq mi; population 307 million; density 98 per sq mi

NEC states only (CT-DC-DE-MD-MA-NJ-NY-PA-RI) = 125,000 sq mi; population 59 million; density 475 per sq mi

EDITED to add pop density.

EDITED 2nd time to add NEC states info

 

[Oldsmoboi]

The major cities are connected via the high speed rail with the smaller satellite cities connected via slower speed (but still faster than Amtrak LD) rail.

Typically, you start on a RegioBahn to get you to "the big city", get on an ICE to whisk you away to another big city, which connects you to another RegioBahn for the small village your grandmother lives in.

This is exactly how we should rebuild our rail infrastructure here in the U.S. - have the major population centers radiate out medium speed (about 90 - 110 mph) trains to smaller outlying cities. That will generate substantial demand for high speed rail to connect the major population centers directly.

 

[Greg]

My understanding is that the population density east of the Mississippi River is roughly equivalent to that of Europe.

 

[Ryan]

Your understanding is correct - I did some quick adding, and the population density of all the states east of the Mississippi (I didn't include LA or MN) is 183.7 people/square mile (assuming I didn't fat finger anything), compared to the 186 of Europe.

Edit: Forgot CT!!! Adding that in takes the US number to 186.5.

 

[TVRM610]

Your understanding is correct - I did some quick adding, and the population density of all the states east of the Mississippi (I didn't include LA or MN) is 183.7 people/square mile (assuming I didn't fat finger anything), compared to the 186 of Europe.

Thanks Ryan! That's perfect.

 

[GlobalistPotato]

My understanding is that the population density east of the Mississippi River is roughly equivalent to that of Europe.

Same here.

If you look at the satellite "light maps" of the United States, you'll notice that there's a cutoff point several miles west of I-35 where the population density goes way down until you reach the West Coast. Other than several large and growing cities in the West like Denver, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Phoenix or Salt Lake City, the west is pretty much desolate.

The West Coast and the whole area starting at I-35 starts to have European like densities. From what I've heard, the entire I-95 corridor has a similar population density to that of Western Europe.

 

[Eric S]

As Ryan noted, the US east of the Mississippi River has a population density comparable to the European continent. And, the states from VA to ME have a combined population density comparable to the EU. (305 for Northeast/Mid-Atlantic US, 296 for EU nations.)

 

[AlanB]

While pop density shouldn't be disregarded, it's not nearly as important as people like to think it is, especially the anti-rail crowd.

If pop density was the end all to end all, then the Lynchurger would be a total failure. As we all know, it isn't. Not only did its first year ridership more than double the estimates, it turned a $2M operating profit. Ridership is still increasing this year, over last year. And last year being the first year, would have had higher ridership thanks to railfans jumping on for a ride on a new service. That effect is long since gone.

So if Lynchburg population just over 67,000 and Charlottesville population around 40,000 can find enough riders to support a train rather successfully, the population density argument loses considerable power.

This is not to suggest that every small town should get a train, pop density can't be totally disregarded either. Again, it's just not nearly as important as the anti-rail crowd would like everyone to believe.

 

[GlobalistPotato]

So why does the Lynchburger work in that case?

 

[afigg]

Same here.

If you look at the satellite "light maps" of the United States, you'll notice that there's a cutoff point several miles west of I-35 where the population density goes way down until you reach the West Coast. Other than several large and growing cities in the West like Denver, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Phoenix or Salt Lake City, the west is pretty much desolate.

The West Coast and the whole area starting at I-35 starts to have European like densities. From what I've heard, the entire I-95 corridor has a similar population density to that of Western Europe.

Looking at the map, I-35 is a good cutoff for the denser populations of the eastern half of the US. Represents the approximate western edge of the populated Mississippi region, if the metropolitan areas along I-35 are included. The area bound by I-35 all the way to the east coast are the prime areas for HSR and corridor rail, along with California with lines to Vegas and Phoenix, and in the Pacific NW.

I guess someone living in Wyoming or Montana thinks of the US as a lightly populated place. They really should drive on the NJ Turnpike or I-95 on a Friday afternoon.

 

[the_traveler]

This is not to suggest that every small town should get a train

I don't want every small town to get a train - just one to "The Back 40" at my mansion!

I don't want to drive 5 whole miles to get on a train!

 

[Oldsmoboi]

I think "convenient time density" and "well I already go that way" density are more important.

From Pittsburgh, there are 6 cities that I can think of that would be very well suited to rail service if there was thrice daily frequency:

Columbus OH

Akron/Canton OH

Cleveland OH

Erie PA

Morgantown WV

and Harrisburg PA

All 6 of these cities have major interstates connecting to them with fairly heavy traffic patterns flowing between them.

Pittsburgh - Canton - Akron - Cleveland - Toledo - Detroit

Morgantown WV - Washington PA - Pittsburgh - Youngstown OH - Erie - Buffalo - Syracuse

Pittsburgh - Wheeling WV - Columbus OH - Cincinnati OH - Louisville KY

and to beat the dead horse I've beaten already, more frequent Pennsylvanian service that stops at Philly instead of motoring all the way up to NYP.

Driving non-stop from Pittsburgh to Cleveland is 3 hours, non-stop to Toledo is 4.5 hours. Both are boring, construction filled drives that no one wants to do, yet there really is no alternative.

Yes, I know it's Pittsburgh centric, but I can rattle off the top of my head people I know who drive to each of these places regularly. My experience driving most of these routes is that the traffic is fairly high. According to my Capitol Ltd. timetable, Amtrak can get me from Pittsburgh to Cleveland in 3 hours and Pittsburgh to Toledo in 5 hours right now. If only Amtrak offered a few convenient departure times, those trips could beat driving.

I'm sure you can think of similar routings in your area as well. It doesn't even have to be high speed service, though that would be nice.

 

[afigg]

So why does the Lynchburger work in that case?

Well, not because Samuel L Jackson is going to shoot you. :lol:

The "Lynchburger" works for several reasons I think. One is proximity to the NEC. You can take the train to Philly, NYP. The trip times are reasonably competitive to driving times, because much of the route to DC is a well maintained NS line. Fix the bottleneck in northern VA in the south of Alexandria to WAS section as part of a SE HSR and VRE improvement project, it might even match driving times. A second reason is that the "Lynchburger" runs to several college towns which don't sit on an interstate leading to DC. College towns which are within 2-4 hour train ride from major cities are a major market for Amtrak.

They really should speed up the process of extending the service to Roanoke and if they can work it, close to Blacksburg (VA Tech), not spend 5 years planning it. If NS is willing, add a second daily frequency, so people can make day trips in both directions.

 

[AlanB]

So why does the Lynchburger work in that case?

The Lynchburger works because population density is not super important.

If pop density was critical, the Lynchburger wouldn't work!

 

[Greg]

This is not to suggest that every small town should get a train

I don't want every small town to get a train - just one to "The Back 40" at my mansion!

I don't want to drive 5 whole miles to get on a train!

LOL, and I don't want to have to drive 170 whole miles to get on a train! (which is what I have to do living here in Tallahassee!!)

 

[MattW]

I'm not so sure HSR wouldn't work in "flyover country" as just that, a high-speed bridge between the eastern and western corridors. The straight flat shots should be good for as fast as the trains can go, like was said in another topic, there is no speedlimit per se on flat straight track.