Rail in the Keys?

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. The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable. Even if a light rail provision was added to the existing causeway, I do not believe passenger service can ever pay for the cost to re-establish the railroad route to the keys. In-season vacation travel on the causeways can be brutal but an investment in rail service most likely won't happen.
That's why I was suggesting some sort of ferry-based transit system. That might run a couple hundred million dollars and need a subsidy, but you could take a lot of traffic off of US1 with a multiple-daily ferry route down there (with a bonus if you can link it to AAF, Amtrak, and Metrorail in Miami).
 
How does that saying go? Something like "past performance does not indicate future results"?

The historical rate of change matters far less than what the rate will be over the next century, and in the Keys it's going to be a bit more than just 9 inches.
9.0001 inches? 90 Feet?

The nicest thing about predicting eustatic sea level, climate or any other long term trend is that you will never be called on it if your prediction is incorrect. So, it's easy to make such predictions with all the confidence in the world.

Just a side note; virtually all of the scholarly articles predicting a tens (or more) foot rise in eustatic sea level almost always have a thermal expansion component that defies physics. Sure if the water column were to gain a few degrees of temperature, then there would be a corresponding volume increase. But even in a runaway greenhouse scenario, the oceans wouldn't be able to absorb that much heat as quickly as they say.

. The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable. Even if a light rail provision was added to the existing causeway, I do not believe passenger service can ever pay for the cost to re-establish the railroad route to the keys. In-season vacation travel on the causeways can be brutal but an investment in rail service most likely won't happen.
Only 50 miles from Key West, Knight's Key Dock served as a commercial transfer facility that serviced ocean going ships, so there was no need to extend the railroad further west than that point.

We already have ferry service and it doesn't impact the use of the Overseas Highway by much. And there are multiple days that the ferry can't run due to weather. On the other hand, a rail system could be used by locals as well as tourists and have a dramatic effect on the culture of the Keys.

But, the naysayers are correct. Heather may get enough support on the commission to ask for an analysis by the state, but nothing will ever come of it.

--

Bud
 
Hahah! That's funny that you actually posted that! I'm not active on these forums and I looked at the old Key West bridge and I thought to myself, "Amtrak should buy this and service a P42dc with 5 comet/horizon rolling stocks to Key West."

So I literally came back here to make a thread but it seems you've already have. I totally support the idea! I love Key West and I've always wanted to take a train there.

I totally do hope Amtrak will invest in such a thing in my lifetime, that would be REALLY awesome!
 
I'm not responding to the denialist rhetoric from the anti-science lunatic.

A ferry system is a good idea. No major sunk costs when individual islands flood or the next hurricane comes through -- you can always send the ferry to somewhere else!
 
sunk costs
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. The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable.
That doesn't sound like a very profitable business strategy to me.

As far as I know these days coal by large ship is way cheaper than coal by rail, so unless things have changed massively in the meantime, this wasn't a good business strategy even then.
 
. The FEC railroad can be creditied for populating and developing the islands of the keys but Henry Flagler envisioned Key West as a coal loading/refueling stop for the ships of the day (that ran on coal) . The railroad was not constructed to derive its revenue from only passenger service. As steamships evolved to run on fuel oil, the coal business that the railroad envisoned never materialized and the route was never profitable.
That doesn't sound like a very profitable business strategy to me.

As far as I know these days coal by large ship is way cheaper than coal by rail, so unless things have changed massively in the meantime, this wasn't a good business strategy even then.
IIRC, the issue was that for certain types of ships in use at the time, Key West was well-placed for a coaling station due to the ships' range on a single load of coal. That was the 1890s. By the 1910s, when the line was finished, the ships' range had grown.

For a parallel, look up Montreal Mirabel Airport: Its existence was functionally predicated on the fact that most airliners couldn't make a flight from Toronto to Europe so they had to stop and refuel (and Montreal ended up being the stop in question, swamping Trudeau) and/or pax had to fly to Montreal and transfer (Montreal being the easternmost major airport in Canada and there was a Wright Amendment-worthy rule in place, too, from what I can tell). Right after Mirabel was built, a new wave of long-haul jets (I believe most importantly including a new edition of the 747) came out, allowing planes to skip the Montreal stop and pax to fly straight through. Mirabel was also horridly inconvenient to Montreal, resulting in a traffic collapse to/from Montreal as the government tried to "force" the airport.
 
I'm not responding to the denialist rhetoric from the anti-science lunatic.

A ferry system is a good idea. No major sunk costs when individual islands flood or the next hurricane comes through -- you can always send the ferry to somewhere else!
I don't know whether you are referring to me or not, but I base my observations on science, not media hype. And while past performance does not guarantee future results, it is the baseline that we use to compare trends. I doubt that any of the islands in the Keys will be abandoned due to seal level rise in my lifetime. However I don't expect to be around in 2115, either.

The Keys already has ferry service and it does not substantially reduce the traffic on the Overseas Highway, so why would another ferry be substantially different?

If the County Commission does ask the state to look into any kind of rail service, it will have to include commuter rail servicing the islands chain in addition to a link to Miami. Ferries can't access many of the islands due to shallow water, so a commuter ferry system would be totally impractical.

Sometime later this week, I will have a chance to look at the proposal and make notes. If possible, I may be able to put some information on-line or provide a link to an existing Web site.

--

Bud
 
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KWBud,

From what I can tell the only ferry service is to/from Ft. Myers (I'm not considering the Dry Tortugas ferry service in this equation. There's nothing going towards Miami that I can find (I'm not counting cruise ships that need to make an out-of-US stop in this), and that is where a lot of people are coming in from. Arguably the Ft. Myers ferry is catering to a separate market that would otherwise be stuck either going the "long way around" via Miami or flying in from SW Florida. Something like that (probably 2-3x daily at a minimum), either "express" from Miami or with several intermediate stops, is what I think we have in mind.

Please give me any info you have on other (regularly-scheduled) service in the region.
 
KWBud,

From what I can tell the only ferry service is to/from Ft. Myers (I'm not considering the Dry Tortugas ferry service in this equation. There's nothing going towards Miami that I can find (I'm not counting cruise ships that need to make an out-of-US stop in this), and that is where a lot of people are coming in from. Arguably the Ft. Myers ferry is catering to a separate market that would otherwise be stuck either going the "long way around" via Miami or flying in from SW Florida. Something like that (probably 2-3x daily at a minimum), either "express" from Miami or with several intermediate stops, is what I think we have in mind.

Please give me any info you have on other (regularly-scheduled) service in the region.
While I can't dispute the facts, I have a much different take on the overall situation. By the way, there is another itinerant ferry that does come in occasionally, but it isn't a big factor in the overall picture.

We have the ferry terminal and it could be used for service to anywhere including Cuba, Miami or even the Bahamas. The city has been shopping for customers and giving away sweetheart deals. That's why the Dry Tortugas Ferry moved from its old dock to the Ferry Terminal.

So, if there were a market, the city would like to help make that kind of service work. There have been proposals but nothing comes of it, so my guess is that the market just isn't there.

Probably the only reason that the West Coast ferry works is because it does indeed cut out a lot of distance by going a direct route rather than having to go to Miami and then down the islands chain.

Additionally we have a large number of tour buses that make daily trips from Miami that do indeed take a lot of the traffic off the Overseas Highway.

However, much of the traffic along the road is commuter traffic. Many people live up the Keys and travel to Key West to work or do business. If that load were substantially reduced it would cure a lot of the issues we have with the highway.

Moreover an express train that served Homestead, Marathon and Key West would make that daily commute feasible. In addition to reducing traffic along US1, other beneficial effects would include reduced rents for the labor force and less dependence on the Overseas Highway as our sole transportation corridor. When we lose just one bridge (as has happened numerous times in the past) we are totally cut off from the mainland.

Other issue with using ferries as commuter transportation include access and susceptibility to weather. Many of the population centers just don't have deep water access that a ferry needs. Winter storms and even summer squalls can create weather severe enough that the ferries just can't operate.

But like a lot of issues, politics plays a big role in the process. It will be very difficult to even get an unbiased feasibility study from the state that reflects how a rail system really fits into the big picture. We can guess what might work, but without hard facts, it will be like arguing about how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.

--

Bud
 
IIRC, the issue was that for certain types of ships in use at the time, Key West was well-placed for a coaling station due to the ships' range on a single load of coal. That was the 1890s. By the 1910s, when the line was finished, the ships' range had grown.
Ok, but my point was rather, did the coal really need to be delivered there by train.

A large coal ship could come in say once a week and restock the Key West supplies. That would probably be way cheaper than building, maintaning and operating a fragile rail link, while still fulfilling the objective of using Key West as a refuelling point.
 
Coal was not the only reason for building the railroad though. But it being present it made sense to delvier the Coal using it.
According to our local historian, it made good business sense to build the original railroad. Key West was the third largest city in Florida at the time. Shipping goods by rail was cheaper than by ship. Key West already had good trade with Cuba, so that connection was already in place. He says that Flagler knew about plans for the Panama Canal that would open trade with the Pacific.

Also according to the historian, Flagler liked Key West.

However as has been pointed out here, the dynamics of trade changed and the railroad became less important. The unnamed storm that struck the Keys in 1935 dealt the fatal blow to the Key West extension.

However the situation is always in flux and whether rail in the Keys might be viable in the 2020s and beyond is what needs to be considered.

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Bud
 
Oy. Monorail. The sign of people who haven't done their research.

The entire Florida Keys population, according to Google, is under 80,000. Smaller than the Ithaca, NY metro area.

If the people in Key West wish to spend their local tax dollars on a railroad, monorail, or whatever, they should feel free.

This is such a low-population area that absolutely no state or federal money should go to a railroad in this area.
 
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While I think building a rail transport o any sort may be a bit over the top, the problem in the Keys is not its population, but the large number of visitors. They might have to increase road capacity anyway one of these days, they appear to be so jammed. At which point considering some sort of light rail may not be all that bad an idea. Whether we like it or not federal money will be spent in the near future to add capacity to US Rt 1 in the Keys irrespective of what the population is or is not.
 
Oy. Denialist rhetoric from the anti-transportation fringe?

A sure sign that some people haven't done their research.

Most people agree that our nation was built on transportation.

In the early years, the New York State Barge Canal created a cheap transportation link between the Midwest and the Hudson River and was the impetus for making New York City a major transportation hub. Wasn't New York City was the world's largest city at one time?

The rail link between the East and West coast provided another inexpensive link for goods and people to travel across the country. The infrastructure for the Golden Age of Rail was in part subsidized by state and federal funds.

A more recent example is the Interstate Highway System, the basis of our modern transportation infrastructure. Likewise air transportation is paid for with the help of government at all levels.

I'd be surprised if any small town in upstate New York turned away all state or federal funding for transportation projects. On the other hand, there are 25 wineries and only one university so I suppose anything is possible ;) [1]

Here in the Keys we have many visitors from all over the planet. Our largest event brings in upwards of 100,000 visitors to the Keys during the final weekend. Since that event occurs during Hurricane Season, getting everyone out could be problematic with only one road. [2] One bad accident during the rush to leave could make the road impassable for many hours.

The point is that people from everywhere, not just the Keys, benefit from having good transportation systems.

Of course, not all transportation projects are practical or beneficial in the long run. So, a study is a good idea, in my opinion.

In any event, the transportation denialists have lost the first round and the study will go forward using state, and probably federal, funding. The next step is to try to ensure that the study looks at the big picture. If that happens, only then can we have a serious discussion about the costs and benefits of a rail system.

--

Bud

[1] This is meant to be a joke, please note the old fashion smiley.

[2] This is no joke, folks. We're very vulnerable down here.
 
I really had not looked recently at the ludicrously high numbers of visitors to the Keys. The numbers have jumped massively in the last two decades.

This probably is enough to support robust train service now, in contrast to the numbers of 10 or 20 years ago. I do question how stable that sharp rise is; tourists can be fickle. A train to Miami would certainly help stabilize the tourism market though, so I would expect the local governments would be very ready to put in their own money.
 
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I really had not looked recently at the ludicrously high numbers of visitors to the Keys. The numbers have jumped massively in the last two decades.

This probably is enough to support robust train service now, in contrast to the numbers of 10 or 20 years ago. I do question how stable that sharp rise is; tourists can be fickle. A train to Miami would certainly help stabilize the tourism market though, so I would expect the local governments would be very ready to put in their own money.
Don't they deal with peak visitation in the winter months? I would imagine that the incentive to take a train would be lower in the summer months when there are fewer tourists and easier traffic.
 
All I can say is traffic on RT 1 is quite horrible on summer weekends too. Don't know about weekdays since I have not taken the trouble to do the 6-7 hours drive from where I live on weekdays.
My only experience was on a summer weekday after a storm had ripped through Florida and scared away all the tourists. It was actually tropical storm strength going through, but with "mandatory" evacuation orders for nonresidents in the Keys. In the end the storm barely registered a mark, but they lost a lot of tourism dollars.
I had to change my plans in Miami, but decided to go south that day. I got to one of those private visitor centers and was debating whether to go to the Everglades or Key West. Everglades NP was going to reopen that day at noon, but the employee there talked me into going to Key West since they could use one more tourist.

When I got there I found it pretty easy to get around. No traffic to speak of. I had a burger and beer on Duval Street and all was right with the world.
 
Thanks to all those who have put forward their well informed views. I'm sure there are crazier and remoter places on the planet that have rail connections so in principle I can see this working. But what is rerally needed before this can go any further is a solid business case. What's it going to cost? What are the expected revenues? Where is the difference going to come from?

We have seen some projects making real progress recently that maybe 10 years ago we would have scoffed as fantasist dreaming. AAF, Texas High Speed rail, X-train, High Speed in California. So I don't like to bounce the word impossible.
 
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