Taking Bets on Mudslides Next 72 Hours Affecting EB

[jmbgeg]

Up to 3 inches of rain forecast for Seattle; 7 inches in the Olympics

Posted by Jack Broom on November 21, 2011 at 11:32 AM

The Seattle area could get 1 1/2 to 3 inches of rain ­– and some parts of Western Washington may get twice that amount — from a storm due to arrive Monday evening, bringing heavy rains expected to continue into Wednesday, according to the Weather Service

The storm is expected to pound the Pacific Coast with sustained winds of 45 to 58 mph and gusts up to 70 mph by noon on Tuesday..

“The heaviest rain is going to fall tonight and continue pretty much all day Tuesday and into Tuesday night,” said Doug McDonnal of the Weather Service.

McDonnal said Southwest Washington may see up to 4 inches of rain during that period, and 6 inches or more could fall in the Olympic Mountains, where the freezing level is rising to 4,000 feet.

The Weather Service has issued a ”flood watch” Tuesday and Wednesday for areas near rivers fed by runoff from the Olympics.

The overall one-day record for rainfall measured at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is more than 5 inches.

 

[fairviewroad]

Probably a safer bet that this will wreak havoc with the Cascades, and on Thanksgiving week of all things.

 

[fairviewroad]

Here's an article with some more details:

http://www.oregonlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2011/11/storm_bearing_down_on_the_paci.html

If I were a betting man, I'd put down a lot of money on the Cascades corridor being the

subject of a 48-hour shutdown at some point this week. That said, everything's running

on or close to schedule this afternoon.

 

[NorthCoastHiawatha]

...and of course the exact time I will be riding.

 

[jmbgeg]

Here's an article with some more details:

http://www.oregonlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2011/11/storm_bearing_down_on_the_paci.html

If I were a betting man, I'd put down a lot of money on the Cascades corridor being the

subject of a 48-hour shutdown at some point this week. That said, everything's running

on or close to schedule this afternoon.

I think I might alter my plans this week. I am visiting PDX, arriving on 27. To return on Friday, I booked the Amtrak Cascades PDX-SEA, then 8 eastbound (so I could enjoy the Amtrak turkey dinner special instead of the train 28 cold meal). Might be wise for me to change to 28 eastbound instead of my current plans. hboy:

 

[fairviewroad]

I think I might alter my plans this week. I am visiting PDX, arriving on 27. To return on Friday, I booked the Amtrak Cascades PDX-SEA, then 8 eastbound (so I could enjoy the Amtrak turkey dinner special instead of the train 28 cold meal). Might be wise for me to change to 28 eastbound instead of my current plans. hboy:

Depends on how long you want to hold out to see what happens. Everything's looking good so far

today. In fact I'd say the people riding the Cascades are having a much better go of it this morning

than those mucking it out on I-5.

But these mudslides often happen at the tail end of a storm, so you never know.

 

[Gratt]

Are there any plans to change this 48 hour rule?

I fully understand the need to close for safety reasons, but for two days?

could they cut it to 24 or even 12 hours?

 

[fairviewroad]

Are there any plans to change this 48 hour rule?

I fully understand the need to close for safety reasons, but for two days?

could they cut it to 24 or even 12 hours?

There are threads on this board from last winter about the 48-hour rule. Bottom line is that it's not exclusively

Amtrak's decision to make. Here's a blog post from the Washington DOT that goes into the issue:

http://wsdotblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/frustrated-with-mudslides-along-amtrak.html

 

[Gratt]

Are there any plans to change this 48 hour rule?

I fully understand the need to close for safety reasons, but for two days?

could they cut it to 24 or even 12 hours?

There are threads on this board from last winter about the 48-hour rule. Bottom line is that it's not exclusively

Amtrak's decision to make. Here's a blog post from the Washington DOT that goes into the issue:

http://wsdotblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/frustrated-with-mudslides-along-amtrak.html

Thanks for that, but it still did not answer the question. Obviously the 48 hour rule is not an Amtrak construct. Only a Federal regulatory board could devise something so impractical and arbitrary. While it is important to prevent mudslides the 48 hour rule is impractical it also prevents Amtrak from running trains on part of the route.

What I want to know is Amtrak, BNSF, or WSDOT doing anything to change this regulation to "passenger trains can resume operations based on how conditions are judged by Amtrak and the host RR, even if it is less than 48 hours."

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

The latest Las Vegas odds have the Mudslide minus 7 over the Cascades :unsure:

 

[EMDF9A]

I had several conversations with WSDOT and my local state representatives last year when all of the mudslide closures occurred. Gus Melonas from BNSF used to state that it was a "regulation" that the tracks be closed to passenger trains. It is in fact NOT a regulation, but merely a BNSF policy. That is why the article by WSDOT says "It is not entirely AMTRAK's decision" Since then, Mr Melonas no longer refers to the closures as "mandatory" or "by regulation" But instead refers to them as closures for "Safety inspections". I continue to pester my senators and representatives as well as KC Council to pressure BNSF into changing their policy to one that is more customer service oriented. (and encourage any other WA citizen viewig this to do the same)

The bottom line is BNSF sees AMTRAK and Sounder service as a pain in the backside along these routes and uses the frequent 48 hour moratorium after a slide, even if the slide is 50 feet from the tracks, as an excuse not to run passenger service.

 

[afigg]

The latest Las Vegas odds have the Mudslide minus 7 over the Cascades :unsure:

But what's the Vegas under/over if it is the Indianapolis Colts versus the Mudslides? The Mudslides favored by 10 points? :lol:

 

[JayPea]

The latest Las Vegas odds have the Mudslide minus 7 over the Cascades :unsure:

But what's the Vegas under/over if it is the Indianapolis Colts versus the Mudslides? The Mudslides favored by 10 points? :lol:

I think you're understimating the Mudslides. The over/under has gotta be at least 15. :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[Steve4031]

The mud slides would win 50-0 over the soft azz colts. Now the bears, they'll just hand the ball to forte. And win.

 

[Bob Dylan]

The mud slides would win 50-0 over the soft azz colts. Now the bears, they'll just hand the ball to forte. And win.

But who's going to hand the ball off, is Jim McMahon coming out of retirement? The Packers will roll that panty waist Central NFC Division (the Pack and the three dwarfs! :lol: ), then get theirs in the Playoffs from the mighty NFC Worst or the Tough!NFC East, Roll Cowboys!!!

 

[NorthCoastHiawatha]

Mudslide hit this morning, im on the 513 as we speak they are operating a bus bridge between Everett and Seattle.

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

Mudslide hit this morning, im on the 513 as we speak they are operating a bus bridge between Everett and Seattle.

PAY THE MAN AND FEED THE KITTY! Now to parlay on to Iowa State plus 27 1/2

 

[fairviewroad]

Yep, we have a winner. Looks like this slide will affect both the Cascades and the EB.

The Cascades Twitter feed includes the best info so far on what's happening:

https://twitter.com/#!/Amtrak_Cascades

510 is being bussed SEA to VAC, 513 operates VAC to EVR, bus bridge to SEA, then train

the rest of the way, and this evening's 516/517 btw SEA and VAC are being bustituted.

(Seems like there would be a Cascades set in EVR from this morning's 513...wonder why

they don't turn that into the northbound 516 and just bus pax from SEA to EVR???)

I assume the EB will arrive/depart from EVR for the next two days. Fortunately the main

truck of the Cascades from SEA south has been unaffected by slides, though some trains

were delayed yesterday south of PDX due to fallen trees.

 

[Steve4031]

The mud slides would win 50-0 over the soft azz colts. Now the bears, they'll just hand the ball to forte. And win.

But who's going to hand the ball off, is Jim McMahon coming out of retirement? The Packers will roll that panty waist Central NFC Division (the Pack and the three dwarfs! :lol: ), then get theirs in the Playoffs from the mighty NFC Worst or the Tough!NFC East, Roll Cowboys!!!

44-0, 44-0, 44-0, 44-0. That's ALL i got to say about the cow girls. In fact they probably could start paulettte at MLB. She would be an improvement.

 

[jmbgeg]

Yep, we have a winner. Looks like this slide will affect both the Cascades and the EB.

The Cascades Twitter feed includes the best info so far on what's happening:

https://twitter.com/#!/Amtrak_Cascades

510 is being bussed SEA to VAC, 513 operates VAC to EVR, bus bridge to SEA, then train

the rest of the way, and this evening's 516/517 btw SEA and VAC are being bustituted.

(Seems like there would be a Cascades set in EVR from this morning's 513...wonder why

they don't turn that into the northbound 516 and just bus pax from SEA to EVR???)

I assume the EB will arrive/depart from EVR for the next two days. Fortunately the main

truck of the Cascades from SEA south has been unaffected by slides, though some trains

were delayed yesterday south of PDX due to fallen trees.

e-mail from WSDOT

Currently, Amtrak Cascades service is temporarily cancelled between Seattle and Vancouver, B.C. due to mudslides near Everett in Snohomish county. When a mudslide occurs across the tracks, BNSF Railway imposes an automatic 48-hour moratorium on passenger rail service to ensure that the area is stable before sending loaded passenger trains through.

Amtrak is providing bus service for passengers traveling between Seattle and Vancouver, B.C. during the moratorium. Cascades service is expected to be restored Friday, Nov. 25. Service to destinations south of Seattle are currently running according to normal schedules.

Providing reliable passenger rail service is critical to the success of Amtrak Cascades and WSDOT is taking action to reduce these service disruptions. WSDOT and BNSF continue to discuss the 48-hour moratorium, exploring options for reducing the amount of time that passenger service is restricted after a mudslide. Washington state recently received $16.1 million in federal funding to identify, design and construct slope stabilization needs along tracks between Vancouver, WA and Vancouver B.C. WSDOT and BNSF are collaborating on environmental and engineering work to survey problem areas and determine appropriate repair solutions in order to reduce mudslide delays.

Visit www.AmtrakCascades.com for updated information.

 

[NorthCoastHiawatha]

Just now reboarding the 513 in Seattle, but they still have to swap engines since a BNSF loco dragged us down here.

 

[Cascadia]

Got home from work and saw that email from WDOT/Cascades, what timing for such a busy travel week of Thanksgiving! Came over here to see what you guys were saying about it.

North Coast Hiawatha, I see you are a fellow 'hamster, howdy neighbor.

 

[jmbgeg]

Up to 3 inches of rain forecast for Seattle; 7 inches in the Olympics

Posted by Jack Broom on November 21, 2011 at 11:32 AM

The Seattle area could get 1 1/2 to 3 inches of rain ­– and some parts of Western Washington may get twice that amount — from a storm due to arrive Monday evening, bringing heavy rains expected to continue into Wednesday, according to the Weather Service

The storm is expected to pound the Pacific Coast with sustained winds of 45 to 58 mph and gusts up to 70 mph by noon on Tuesday..

“The heaviest rain is going to fall tonight and continue pretty much all day Tuesday and into Tuesday night,” said Doug McDonnal of the Weather Service.

McDonnal said Southwest Washington may see up to 4 inches of rain during that period, and 6 inches or more could fall in the Olympic Mountains, where the freezing level is rising to 4,000 feet.

The Weather Service has issued a ”flood watch” Tuesday and Wednesday for areas near rivers fed by runoff from the Olympics.

The overall one-day record for rainfall measured at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is more than 5 inches.

Now what??? A service disruption west of Malta?

Train 7 of 11/22/2011.

* THIS TRAIN EXPERIENCED A SERVICE DISRUPTION.

* Empire Builder

The train gods don't want me traveling tonight (boarding in SPK).

 

[anir dendroica]

The "Service Disruption" may mean nothing more than that the train will be terminating at Everett. Note that today's #8 (presumably originating at Everett) is also in Service Disruption status.

Mark

 

[jmbgeg]

The "Service Disruption" may mean nothing more than that the train will be terminating at Everett. Note that today's #8 (presumably originating at Everett) is also in Service Disruption status.

Mark

Unfortunately, it is more. 7(22) went from 19 minutes late in Stanley to almost 3.5 hours in Malta. I spoke with Amtrak. 7 limped into Havre with an engine problem yet to be undiagnosed. The train very well may still run, but 4 hours + late at a minimum. Given my holiday schedule, I canceled the trip. If I had not planned to meet friends on a set schedule, I would have waited it out and traveled. Others boarding west of Havre should call Amtrak to get updates. If you are flexible and the train runs, stick with it.