When I add up how many new cars Amtrak actually needs, I find that the current CAF order is too few.
I have no good estimates for the baggage loads on the trains. However, when Amtrak said that they were ordering more baggage cars due to "commercial needs", perhaps what they actually meant was this. They planned to replace full baggage cars with bag-dorms on a bunch of trains. Baggage loads are high enough (even after the stricter baggage policy) that they now know they can't do that on most of the trains. ...
From five years ago
trains4america.wordpress.com
Sea Toby says:
July 26, 2009
...
The new 130 Viewliner 2 cars are:
25 sleepers
25 baggage dorms
25 diners
55 baggage cars
The optional 70 Viewliner 2 cars are:
10 sleepers
15 baggage dorms
15 diners
30 baggage cars
I don't know Sea Toby at all. But he seemed confident in his claim.
Wait! Then another source posted somewhere that the option was for
15 diners, 15 bag dorms, 15 sleepers, and 25 bag cars. And someone
said the bag cars weren't enuff to replace all the Heritage equipment,
much less to add cars to current and future trains.
So Amtrak rejiggered the order to get 15 more bag cars. But I think,
not sure, that's still short of replacing the last of the Heritage equipment.
Meanwhile, another post claimed that reports from the field are that
2 ½ sleepers is fine, but 3 sleepers per diner really taxes the crew.
So how to get to 2 ½ sleepers? Would 2 full sleepers plus a bag dorm
do it? Seems like that is 2 sleepers, not 2 ½. So 3 sleepers, with 1/2
of one used for crew. But three sleepers plus a bag-dorm car is 3
sleepers per diner, which we're told is a bit too much to handle.
In which case, assuming Amtrak agrees that 2 sleepers is too few,
3 is too many, and 2 ½ is just right, then it doesn't need bag-dorms
much at all. Of course, with the new more efficient diners, and with
point-of-sale surely coming soon, maybe 3 full sleepers per diner will
be the right number, and Amtrak will want a bag-dorm on every route.
Of course, things change over time. The RfP for single-level cars was
late 2008 or early 2009. Remember how it looked like there'd be $4 or
$5 Billion a year for passenger rail infrastructure and equipment?
Now five years gone by, and three or four million passengers gained,
it's really not too surprising that particulars of the CAF order, and of
the option order, have changed.
Still, I have no doubt that the current order for 130 cars is way too small.
I'm crediting Amtrak with knowing that it needed 200 cars, but scaling it
back to 130 plus option for 70 due to financial limits, soon compounded
by political pressures.
I won't be surprised if CAF is very VERY flexible about the option order.
It could allow Amtrak to exercise a partial order for enuff cars to keep
the assembly lines (or at least one assembly line) open into another of
Amtrak's Fiscal Years, with a
revised option for the balance of the 70 cars,
or for even more.
CAF doesn't want to pack up and go home any time soon. They want
to be around to bid to build Next Gen single-level coaches, and as I've
said before, Amtrak wants them to involved to help push the other bids down.
So I conclude that there's nothing about the Viewliner IIs order that can't
change, from the deadlines to the breakdown of cars ordered to the total
cars ordered, and more stuff I can't think of right now.
