Why are some Amtrak tickets half price at the last minute?

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Kate

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I have been watching ticket prices online for Amtrak Zephyr from CA to IL. I was told that you should book in advance for cheap prices, but I am noticing that the price is almost cut in half if I want to travel the very next day. Usually the prices are $700-$900, but some days it's around $450. Is there a trick to getting a good price? When I called them, they only tell me prices depend on availability. I'd be willing to travel the next day if I knew I could save $300.
 
The trick is to use http://amsnag.net/, which allows you to view prices, for both coach and sleepers, over a 30-day window. That way, you can figure out what the lowest bucket is, and will be sure to get the best possible deal.
 
I have been watching ticket prices online for Amtrak Zephyr from CA to IL. I was told that you should book in advance for cheap prices, but I am noticing that the price is almost cut in half if I want to travel the very next day. Usually the prices are $700-$900, but some days it's around $450. Is there a trick to getting a good price? When I called them, they only tell me prices depend on availability. I'd be willing to travel the next day if I knew I could save $300.
I think the drop in prices with 1 day to departure is self explanatory. Revenue management. An empty roomette from CA to IL is a loss of potential revenue that can't be recovered once the train has completed its trip. Hotels will do the same thing; drop prices for rooms that night or the upcoming weekend if they have surplus rooms. An empty hotel room makes no money.

With the constant delays on the California Zephyr, they may be getting hit with cancellations and fewer room sales. So, they are dropping prices to a lower bucket one day prior to departure to try to sell some of the empty rooms and roomettes. Unfortunately, Amtrak is not doing this on the NEC, but buying tickets at the station (or with the Amtrak smartphone app) for the next departing train is routine on the NEC.

As for "buckets", that is the travel industry term for seats (or rooms) sold at different price levels. There may be so many seats available at the lowest bucket, then once those are sold, then there are so many seats at the next bucket price. Airlines have been doing this for decades. It is all about dynamic demand pricing to generate the most revenue. Amtrak generally has around 4 to 5 bucket price levels.
 
I have been watching ticket prices online for Amtrak Zephyr from CA to IL. I was told that you should book in advance for cheap prices, but I am noticing that the price is almost cut in half if I want to travel the very next day. Usually the prices are $700-$900, but some days it's around $450. Is there a trick to getting a good price? When I called them, they only tell me prices depend on availability. I'd be willing to travel the next day if I knew I could save $300.
The situation that you are describing is what the travel industry calls "spoiled inventory." If there are still tickets available very close to the departure date or time, and the likelihood that these tickets will be sold at a high price is low, then the price will often be cut to a level where it is estimated that they are sellable. If a train is going to depart with empty seats, they'd rather sell it for something than let it run empty. I personally haven't seen this happen the day before the departure of a train, but I've often noticed that prices do tend to come down a bit a week or so before to departure, especially during low-volume times.

If you intend to travel during a high-volume time though (like summer or a holiday), I would not count on this. Trains often sell out completely during those times, and the prices tend not to budge because the demand for a limited commodity (such as seats or rooms), remains high. The fact that Amtrak can and often will sell tickets during these times, even at the highest bucket, is proof of this.
 
I have been watching ticket prices online for Amtrak Zephyr from CA to IL. I was told that you should book in advance for cheap prices, but I am noticing that the price is almost cut in half if I want to travel the very next day. Usually the prices are $700-$900, but some days it's around $450. Is there a trick to getting a good price? When I called them, they only tell me prices depend on availability. I'd be willing to travel the next day if I knew I could save $300.
I think the drop in prices with 1 day to departure is self explanatory. Revenue management. An empty roomette from CA to IL is a loss of potential revenue that can't be recovered once the train has completed its trip. Hotels will do the same thing; drop prices for rooms that night or the upcoming weekend if they have surplus rooms. An empty hotel room makes no money.

With the constant delays on the California Zephyr, they may be getting hit with cancellations and fewer room sales. So, they are dropping prices to a lower bucket one day prior to departure to try to sell some of the empty rooms and roomettes. Unfortunately, Amtrak is not doing this on the NEC, but buying tickets at the station (or with the Amtrak smartphone app) for the next departing train is routine on the NEC.

As for "buckets", that is the travel industry term for seats (or rooms) sold at different price levels. There may be so many seats available at the lowest bucket, then once those are sold, then there are so many seats at the next bucket price. Airlines have been doing this for decades. It is all about dynamic demand pricing to generate the most revenue. Amtrak generally has around 4 to 5 bucket price levels.
And, these days they don't necessarily start at low bucket as they have in the past. On popular routes and times they may start at mid to high bucket and lower the price, as needed, from there depending on how sales go.
 
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A "bucket" is the fare level for that specific train. Each train and each day has their own buckets.

To keep it simple, say the 1st to 15th ticket sold for that train is low bucket, the 16th to 30th ticket sold is the next bucket, etc... So the 15th ticket is low bucket and costs $80, but the 16th ticket sold costs $88 because the bucket rose! That is why the train on the 27th (which sold 27 tickets) costs more than the 26th (which sold 13 tickets) or the 28th (which sold 9 tickets).
 
We are booked on CZ 6 GJT to BRL in Transdorm sleeper late Sept.2014. 3 days later I saw a roomette open up and called to see if we could get a roomette in back closer to dining car. We did (#10) *and* got a $68 refund! When I inquired about the refund the phone assistant replied "that's what it shows." Any guesses as to why a lower fare on same train on same day? Did the bucket rate drop between my Transdorm reservation and my car change 3 days later? (I would think prices would go up the later you book.)
 
Which is why it always pays to check amsnag.net on current fares right up to the day of departure. Not only might you find a lower bucket fare opening up on your planned day of departure, but if your travel schedule has some flexibility, you might find moving your travel date slightly forward or back could save you a bunch of $$$. Worked for me last month when the lowest bucket opened up on the wb CZ and allowed me to take an earlier return trip at substantially lower roomette charge.

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If you think about it, Amtrak really wants to fill those rooms... if the room is not booked on the day before travel, they have a strong incentive to discount it so that they get *some* revenue for it.

The risk in waiting to the day before travel is that the train may be sold out (or at least sold out of rooms). If it isn't sold out, yes, the tickets will probably be pretty cheap... but these days, the trains often are sold out. So you can only do this if your trip is entirely discretionary and you're willing to just cancel it if you can't get a ticket.
 
In my case, I believe it was Amtrak's decision to run the summer CHI-DEN sleeper all the way to EMY for a few days, which added 21 rooms to the train west of DEN, allowing me to change my low-bucket-room purchased weeks before to a preferred earlier date, now available at low bucket when it wasn't before.

Same strategy often works for rental cars, too. Book as soon as need is known but always check back later for lower prices.

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