Buckets Do Drop (5 months almost to the day)

[zephyr17]

I have a trip in November, returning from New York to Everett, WA, ideally on November 12th. The date is fairly inflexible, only a day or two wiggle room. I have been checking fares and both the Lake Shore and the Builder have been in high bucket, for a cash fare of over $1700. Since I had nothing to lose, there were at least 8 roomettes available on both, and early November is not a high demand travel period, I waited, checking fares every couple of days. Well, checked today and the fares for my trip are now low bucket on the Lake Shore and second lowest on the Builder. I am now booked, second lowest and lowest buckets are fine by me. I am using points, but there is no sense wasting them, 34,471 down from like 50K.

A shout out to @niemi24s for his great bucket chart. It is invaluable. Thanks niemi24s.

My main point is nobody should panic at high bucket fares really far out. That seems pretty normal these days. Amtrak does indeed reallocate inventory into lower buckets based on sales, 4-6 months out is often the sweet spot. and my trip is proof of it. Just keep your eye on it. Doesn't hurt to check for availability of up to 8 roomettes to see how much inventory there is, either.

PS, I am booked into 730, so I feel pretty safe and have high confidence the car will run despite the current clown show.

 

[joelkfla]

My main point is nobody should panic at high bucket fares really far out. That seems pretty normal these days. Amtrak does indeed reallocate inventory into lower buckets based on sales, 4-6 months out is often the sweet spot. and my trip is proof of it. Just keep your eye on it. Doesn't hurt to check for availability of up to 8 roomettes to see how much inventory there is, either.

I think some may take longer to drop. A couple of days ago I was checking fares between WAS & CHI in the 2nd half of September, and they were all high or 2nd highest bucket. Just for the heck of it, I then checked some dates in August, and saw some low and 2nd lowest fares.

 

[zephyr17]

Yeah, probably, especially in higher demand periods, September is still "shoulder season". I know when initially planned this trip, it was a week later since VIA (outbound leg) historically hasn't gone to its off season fares until 11/1. That would have put the return the weekend before Thanksgiving, when I would not have expected much, if any, of a bucket reallocation. Happily, I actually checked before booking and I could get the same fare on October 31 as the next week so I shifted everything back, booked VIA, and waited for Amtrak.

I don't pretend that 4-6 months is hard and fast. It is a VERY loose rule of thumb. I guess my main point is that no one should freak out at high buckets 11 months out, and that compulsively checking probably isn't productive until starting about 6 months prior to departure. My experience is Amtrak just sets it and leaves it and doesn't re-evaluate until at least the 6 month point or so. That doesn't mean it won't be later, just that you really can't expect any shifts at all between 6-11 months out, so very occasional checking in that window is probably enough then. Probably the best indicator of whether a reallocation into some lower buckets might be in the cards is if there are a lot of roomettes available. You can do a phantom booking for up to 8.