10 years from now

[Cho Cho Charlie]

Ten years from now...

America having run out of oil, Amtrak's meager ration of electric power from the TMI nuclear plant, will be used for just one train per day on the electrified NEC track.

The only other Amtrak train still running will be the Pennsylvania, having switched back to a steam engine powered by their ration of PA coal.

It is rumored that California is still trying to get its HSR system going, using solar power. However, Governor Roseanne Barr, continues to not support Proposition 407.

 

[Montanan]

I expect the following:
.....

You're gonna need way more equipment than what you ordered.

But seriously, I'm surprised at the overall pessimism, too -- I think there's a real chance for some meaningful improvement in America's passenger rail network over the next few years. I think nearly all of it, though, will be in short and mid-range services ... I'll be surprised if large-scale additions to the long-distance network take place.

 

[catblue]

Trains need tracks to run on and Amtrak runs on freight train tracks. In parts of the country railroad tracks have been taken up. The rails, cross ties and the rock bed are gone and you can not even tell there was ever a railroad track there. Never thought I would see that. One can only hope the existing Amtrak routes continue.

I should of mentioned this happen several years ago. This is not a prediction it is fact.

 

[Green Maned Lion]

This happened many years ago many times, and those of us with knowledge of railroad history are painfully aware of that, Catblue. Just to mention a few: The Silver Comet, the Lackwanna Cut-off, the Pittsburgh and Ft. Wayne.

 

[saxman]

Yeah, there's way too much pessimism in here. I think we're at a transportation crossroads here, and America is slowly but surely demanding more rail service.

Here's what I see:

-Maybe an extension of the Heartland Flyer north to Newton and south to San Antonio.

-Texas voting on the Texas T-bone

-Service to Madison, Wisconsin and the Empire Builder filled to the gills with the additional ridership because of the reroute through Madison

-Florida adding some corridor trains

-Several others states adding frequencies of corridor service

-HSR being a hot topic all over the place

-Viewliners being on property.

-Superliner III's being ordered or some sort of double decker cars

-Daily service on SL and Cardinal

-Many other non-Amtrak train services being added throughout the country such as commuter rail and light rail in many cities

I don't really see huge services in LD services. Maybe a third NY-Florida train again. Maybe the Pioneer and/or Desert Wind if anything. With that said, I can see other long distance trains being much more crowded like the EB is today. Especially the Texas Eagle and whatever becomes of the Sunset. And Amtrak not having enough bi-level equipment to handle it all.

 

[catblue]

Green Maned, I am sure many have more knowledge than I do and I did not mean to imply I knew something no one else knew. I do know a little bit about railroads, my husband is retired from the railroad, but I will leave this topic to "those of you with knowledge of railroad history".

 

[Joel N. Weber II]

If you want a serious answer then you need to look at where fuel costs will be 10 years from now. Disregarding the extreme run up last summer, oil prices are basically double 10 years ago. However, if the US does not get serious about fuel sources and continues to import most of it's liquid fuel then the volatility can and will continue.

Then again, I won't be surprised if 10 years from now it is impossible to buy a new gasoline or diesel powered automobile, and we find that battery power is the way to go, and even ends up being cheaper to own and operate than gasoline automobiles are today after adjusting for inflation.

More electricity will come mainly from coal and nuclear fuel. Wind and Solar will not make much of a contribution.

I'm skeptical. Doesn't Berkshire Hathaway own a utility that boasts 20% of their capacity is wind power? I've never gotten the impression Buffet is an evironmentalist. On the other hand, he also isn't overly focused on next quarter's earnings report.

To keep a coal plant running, you have to keep digging coal out of the ground. To keep a solar cell supplied with sunlight requires approximately zero labor once the solar cell is installed. Same goes for feeding a wind turbine with wind. We may find wind and solar will save money in the long run, before you even account for the environmental benefits.

I don't think it's appropriate to construct new nuclear power plants until we find a satisfactory permanent solution to the storage of nuclear waste, and given that we've had multiple decades to solve this problem and haven't, I doubt another decade is going to make a difference there.

When gas hit $4 a gallon people started to look for some other way to get to work and travel rather than driving. This demand is what will ultimately drive the development of inter-city passenger rail and inner-city transit.

I think the issue that's really going to increase investments in urban local rail transit is traffic congestion. We'll probably find mass transit to be cheaper than more highways.

 

[Joel N. Weber II]

But of course, personally I hope that in 2019 there will be a extensive high speed network all over the US.

I'd like to see that, but I think if we're going for a description of something that's got some chance of being realistic, I'd settle for an extensive HSR network being under construction throughout the US.

 

[Joel N. Weber II]

I'm wondering what will happen with the New Haven to Springfield, Springfield to Worcester, Worcster to Framingham, and Framingham to Boston tracks.

There's a good chance we'll see commuter rail service on the New Haven to Springfield tracks. And that might kill off the Amtrak shuttle, which, given the shuttle's ridership, might not be terrible.

The MBTA will probably manage to buy the Framingham to Worcester tracks. I hope we'll see some investment in full double tracking of the Boston to Worcester route as well.

I'd love to see the MBTA buy and fully double track the Worcester to Springfield tracks as well, but I'm not so optimistic that will actually happen.

If the MBTA ends up owning the Boston to Springfield tracks, and the Springfield to New Haven tracks remain owned by Amtrak, perhaps we'll see some additional Northeast Regional trains (which by then will probably have gone through two more senseless name changes) to Boston routed via Springfield and Worcester.

The North South Rail Link through downtown Boston will probably be under construction in 10 years, enabling the Downeaster to eventually become an extension of the Northeast Regional.

 

[wayman]

There are so many fascinating ideas and opinions here, and yet there's one that I think everyone has agreed upon:

Cardinal: Senator Byrd will die.

So I will boldly (quite probably wrongly!) predict that Senator Byrd is still serving in the Senate at 102 years of age in 2019.

 

[birdy]

I'm surprised so many people are pessimistic about the future. I think the tide has turned and the future of passenger is good.
Somewhat to my surprise, I must admit I agree with many of the predictions by Green Lion. I'm a Midwestern guy and a member of the Midwest High Speed Rail advocacy group which has proven very effective in lobbying for expanded train service in the Midwest, particularly Illinois. The Hiawatha route will have double-digit trains in each direction, with most forwarded to Madison over a new high speed route and a few heading up the Fox River valley to Green Bay. This Chicago-Milwaukee-Madison route is ripe for electrification.

The Lincoln service will also have hourly service over its length and will be electrified with maximum speeds of 110 mph and improved access through the Chicago and St. Louis metro areas. There was a great painting on display at National Train Day at Chicago Union Station showing an electrified Lincoln train speeding across the prairie. Off to the side was a Union Pacific freight train switching a grain elevator with yellow UP electric locomotives (!).

The other main Midwestern corridor, the Wolverine route to Detroit and vicinity will also have greatly expanded service, Ownership of this line will be largely by public entities including Amtrak (Chicago to Porter high speed, existing Porter to Kalamzoo high speed) and Michigan Department of Transportation (Kalamazoo to Detroit area). Greenie's proposal for an overnight train to Toronto, via the Detroit River tunnel, is an idea whose time will come in the next decade.

Chicago-Indianapolis will see additional service, but not a high speed, since Indiana has little interest in any improvements to anything, although the cafe cars could sell cigarettes and fireworks, two of Indiana's biggest revenue sources. More and faster service to Cincinnati would be nice, but it would take a complete rebuilding of the existing route and Indiana wouldn't cough up any money for it.

I also see increased service to the Twin Cities, as well as more, but not necessarily faster, Illinois-funded service to Carbondale, Qunicy, Dubuque and Peoria.

Overall, I think the future looks bright.

I think we will be with respect to trains about where we were with respect to highways in 1964. They will be uncontroversial, generally desired, and the controversy will be limited to squabbling over which metropolis gets the next HSR link, and the occasional scandal over procurement. Enviros and NIMBYs will get steamrollered for a while. Amtrak will run these trains.

The mindset that you have to arrange to have some sleazy pay-for-play concessionaire interject himself into any government program in the name of efficiency will be long-gone by then. The Cato institute will be disbanded and Libertarianism will be forgotten or an embarrassment, like the John Birch Society. Like it or not, this country is moving left and fast.

It just takes the first couple to be built break the ice and then every metropolis will want one.

* * * * *

Mike, I just don't see why your organization is selling itself short with proposals for 110 mph intermediate speed trains instead of the real deal. the bulk of the country's population lives within a few hundred miles of Chicago. Building costs are more modest than the coasts, the need is great, especially when one factors in the weather problems in the upper Midwest in winter. I've never been to Chicago, but I can pretty much guarantee you that the rest of the country does not begrudge you a HSR, especially one that stretches across three states to Minnesota. A route to Minneapolis with a showpiece station at each end might cost $9 billion. We are paying $90 billion to prosecute our two wars to the end of this year. The wars are controversial, but their cost is not.

Build a system worthy of a great nation and the City With Broad Shoulders.

 

[RTOlson]

^^

Of course, when the average speed of some Chicago trackage is 5-15 miles an hour, 110 mph speeds are a vast improvement.

I liked GML's predictions for the West Coast, but I'm not sure about the Pacific Surfliner going all the way near the California-Oregon border up the Central Valley. After all, there are two other Amtrak rail services that more directly service Northern and Central California -- Capitol Corridor and San Joaquins (which is more oriented toward Central Valley service).

Capitol Corridor having 25 roundtrips would be interesting, especially with a couple trips going toward Reno. Somehow extending San Joaquins to LA or Surfliner to Bakersfield would be terrific (if highly improbable).

It would be interesting to see one or two Coast Daylight trains (that could be a Surfliner extension) between San Jose (or Oakland) and Los Angeles). A couple of Sacramento-Redding trains could be advantageous (either an extension of Capitol Corridor or San Joaquins). Caltrans refers to one of its motorcoach schedules as Shasta Daylight (from Sacramento to Medford, Ore.). That's not a bad name although I think a lot of numbers would need to be crunched to merit sending a daily train that far north.

 

[cpamtfan]

My predictions are that Amtrak is going to rebuild itself when it turns fifty in 12 years, with many things that GML listed in his fanticy just updated. But I don't think there will ever be eletrification to PGH, or 16 hour NYC-CHI trains, but I can guarentee you they will get quicker in time.

cpamtfan-Peter

 

[gswager]

It would be interesting to see one or two Coast Daylight trains (that could be a Surfliner extension) between San Jose (or Oakland) and Los Angeles). A couple of Sacramento-Redding trains could be advantageous (either an extension of Capitol Corridor or San Joaquins). Caltrans refers to one of its motorcoach schedules as Shasta Daylight (from Sacramento to Medford, Ore.). That's not a bad name although I think a lot of numbers would need to be crunched to merit sending a daily train that far north.

It is possible that Coast Daylight (an extension of Pacific Surfliner) can reach San Francisco instead of Oakland. I believe the Caltrains has one RT slot left that is reserved for Coast Daylight on its trackage. That was almost a decade ago.

In 10 years, my prediction that the electricification will be set up for Caltrains. Meanwhile, the Metrolink San Bernardino Line's study to run on electric will be launched due to heavily used by freights and frequency of commuter trains.

 

[micmac99]

See my post about a hypothetical Amtrak Arizona. If my state starts now, this might be reality in 10 years.

http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?showtopic=27069

 

[micmac99]

Western Long Distance:
Before delivery of Superliner III cars:

Southwest Chief, California Zephyr, Empire Builder, Coast Starlight will remain as is.

Golden State Limited will replace the Sunset Limited and Texas Eagle.

City of Orlando will replace the City of New Orleans.

Houston/Orleans Flyer will run NOL-SAS and will convey a sleeper and coach car from LAX 3 days a week.

After Delivery of Superliner III cars:

Empire Builder, Coast Starlight, Golden State Limited will remain as is.

Sunset Limited will be restored LAX-NOL tri-weekly.

Houston/Orleans Flyer will convey sleeper and coach from the Golden State Limited the other four days.

City of Miami will replace the City of Orlando and operate out of Chicago late morning.

Panama Limited will run on a faster overnight schedule than the City of New Orleans currently does.

City of New Orleans will be restored as a coach day train. (We are effectively creating a long-distance corridor here.)

Texas Chief will operate CHI-HOU via KCY.

Southwest Chief discontinued.

Super Chief operates CHI-LAX in the evening with a first class lounge.

El Capitan operates CHI-LAX in the morning without a first class lounge.

North Coast Hiawatha restored.

James J. Hill Limited operates over Empire Builders route at a 12 hour offshoot.

Twin-City Zephyr operates overnight to MSP from CHI.

Desert Wind is restored, operating as a full service train CHI-SLC-LAX, leaving CHI in the morning.

Pioneer is restored operating CHI-DEN-SEA leaving CHI midday.

California Zephyr remains on its current routing and leaves Chicago in the evening.

At first I thought Flagstaff would get no service when you said (under this scenario) the Southwest Chief would be scrapped, but the Super Chief/El Capitan combo is a far better option and would fit perfectly with my "Amtrak Arizona" proposal. Basically, sounds like a lot of the pre-Amtrak Santa Fe passenger service would (should) be restored.

Also sounds like the "Arizona Eagle", which I proposed as a daily full service Superliner train, is actually listed here as the Golden State Limited, esp. after the SL is restored in this scenario...I like the Houston/Orleans Flyer idea, but I think there needs to be two daily trains on the southern LAX-CHI route, not just one. The current TE/SL makes the Arizona stops late at night, and a train leaving overnight from LAX will provide for the Arizona stops during early afternoon.

 

[micmac99]

Western Long Distance:
Before delivery of Superliner III cars:

Southwest Chief, California Zephyr, Empire Builder, Coast Starlight will remain as is.

Golden State Limited will replace the Sunset Limited and Texas Eagle.

City of Orlando will replace the City of New Orleans.

Houston/Orleans Flyer will run NOL-SAS and will convey a sleeper and coach car from LAX 3 days a week.

After Delivery of Superliner III cars:

Empire Builder, Coast Starlight, Golden State Limited will remain as is.

Sunset Limited will be restored LAX-NOL tri-weekly.

Houston/Orleans Flyer will convey sleeper and coach from the Golden State Limited the other four days.

City of Miami will replace the City of Orlando and operate out of Chicago late morning.

Panama Limited will run on a faster overnight schedule than the City of New Orleans currently does.

City of New Orleans will be restored as a coach day train. (We are effectively creating a long-distance corridor here.)

Texas Chief will operate CHI-HOU via KCY.

Southwest Chief discontinued.

Super Chief operates CHI-LAX in the evening with a first class lounge.

El Capitan operates CHI-LAX in the morning without a first class lounge.

North Coast Hiawatha restored.

James J. Hill Limited operates over Empire Builders route at a 12 hour offshoot.

Twin-City Zephyr operates overnight to MSP from CHI.

Desert Wind is restored, operating as a full service train CHI-SLC-LAX, leaving CHI in the morning.

Pioneer is restored operating CHI-DEN-SEA leaving CHI midday.

California Zephyr remains on its current routing and leaves Chicago in the evening.

At first I thought Flagstaff would get no service when you said (under this scenario) the Southwest Chief would be scrapped, but the Super Chief/El Capitan combo is a far better option and would fit perfectly with my "Amtrak Arizona" proposal. Basically, sounds like a lot of the pre-Amtrak Santa Fe passenger service would (should) be restored.

Also sounds like the "Arizona Eagle", which I proposed as a daily full service Superliner train, is actually listed here as the Golden State Limited, esp. after the SL is restored in this scenario...I like the Houston/Orleans Flyer idea, but I think there needs to be two daily trains on the southern LAX-CHI route, not just one. The current TE/SL makes the Arizona stops late at night, and a train leaving overnight from LAX will provide for the Arizona stops during early afternoon.

And while we're at it, can we build a bigger station in San Antonio??? At least twice the size? The Greyhound station there is probably bigger (never been to that one, however).

 

[saxman]

And while we're at it, can we build a bigger station in San Antonio??? At least twice the size? The Greyhound station there is probably bigger (never been to that one, however).

A lot of stations need to be bigger. Fort Worth ITC was just built in 2001 and already too small. Dallas' station needs to be upgraded as well to make it easier for Amtrak passengers to get from the station to platform and not have to cross 4 active tracks to get there. No one ever uses the tunnel. Houston could use a station, but that is already in the works with one planned to be near UH-Downtown to meet with Metro light rail trains planned to be built. It's on the current line the Sunset uses today, just a half mile away. And for SAS, rebuild Sunset Station to house an actual station. You can still keep the bars and restaurants there too.

 

[VentureForth]

Hey - I've used the tunnel. It's extremely convienient for folks boarding from the Hotel. You're right - it's not the best option for folks from the station building, but there is an elevator. Besides, why else do you think they call that little yellow train "Dart"? You gotta dart 'em to get to Amtrak!

 

[NativeSon5859]

New LD service: The Mountaineer

Seattle-Portland-Boise-Denver-Dallas-Shreveport-New Orleans

 

[VentureForth]

New LD service: The Mountaineer
Seattle-Portland-Boise-Denver-Dallas-Shreveport-New Orleans

With a stop in Trinidad to connect to the SWC. Must stop in Amarillo and Lubbock.