I honestly think all bets are off. Trump has been tweeting one thing one day and the opposite the other. Neither facts, knowledge nor his own previous statements seem to matter much to him. Economywise his proposals for tax cuts and spending doesn't add up at all. He likes big shiny things better than mundane people stuff like health care, but whether it's going to be roads or rails, there's no clue (he might be a New Yorker, but I doubt he has been in a train for many, many years, if ever). So which are going to become reality?
But I agree Congress will matter more, and here two things will determine the outcome: How long and forcefully Obamahate will linger. If we see an all out "erase everything" rampage, anything transit might get killed, as Obama tried to push it, even if unsuccessful, at least since 2010. The other is how the powerstruggle within the Republican caucus will play out. There's definately an "any government spending, especially near any large cities is bad"-wing, and they probably smell blood. We might see a congress which is every bit as paralyzed as the current one, where internal Republican infighting has been as much the cause as lack of bipartisanship. Public transport might end up collateral damage in that fight.
Or maybe not. But there is at least as much cause for pessimism as for optimism. There's a potential upside not seen since the stimulus in 2008-10, but in contrary to that period there's also a real danger of total slash and burn. Most likely scenario: Amtrak will fly under the radar and continue slogging along without any of the fundamental problems getting solved.
Great Post! I agree.
