Desert Wind may blow again

[socalsteve]

This story:

LA Times story

in this morning's paper talked about a possible train from Victorville to Las Vegas. Kind of buried in the story is a mention that Amtrak is considering reviving the Desert Wind.

 

[Guest]

As much as I would like to see maglev, I don't think it is a serious threat to this project. American Maglev is very underdeveloped compared to transrapid.

People may prefer 300 mph to 125 mph, but $3 billion is a lot less than $10billion.

 

[gyuri_ft]

This story:

LA Times story

in this morning's paper talked about a possible train from Victorville to Las Vegas. Kind of buried in the story is a mention that Amtrak is considering reviving the Desert Wind.

Desert Wind will come... sure, after Dubyuh and his Minionetta go. :lol: Would be pretty surprised if it would happen sooner.

 

[PRR 60]

This story:

LA Times story

in this morning's paper talked about a possible train from Victorville to Las Vegas. Kind of buried in the story is a mention that Amtrak is considering reviving the Desert Wind.

Desert Wind will come... sure, after Dubyuh and his Minionetta go. :lol: Would be pretty surprised if it would happen sooner.

For the record, the Desert Wind was cut by a Democrat administration.

 

[Superliner Diner]

Minionetta

He's already gone, and it's Minneta.

 

[George Harris]

If this is the same maglev scheme that has been kicked around for a few years, it is so full of wild assumptions, errors in conceptual understanding, and impossible cost estimates that it is completely hopeless. It is an example of the frequent observation that nothing has the ability to survive like a bad idea.

Building the Shanghai Airport Maglev cured the Chinese of all though of using it for a longer line. Bad news of govenment bungles are of course severly repressed, but there have been mumbles that this thing proved to cost about 4 times as much as a high speed railroad line would, and also is more expensive to operate. You don't think the energy to give the vehicle levitation si free do you?

As to the Desert Wind restoration: Has anybody asked UP what it would take in additional track capacity for them to agree to it?

 

[gswager]

I thought that Amtrak cannot add new route, like formerly Desert Wind due to Philadelphia station loan.

Only way to make it works is being paid by CA and NV, or from gamblers' losing money.

 

[AmtrakWPK]

As I understand the current rules, Amtrak can agree to start and run the train, as long as it had financial backers, whether states, or LV casino operators, or whatever, as long as Amtrak could certify that if it did not break even, the backers would be responsible to make up the difference, not the fed taxpayers. Of course, then it has to find the equipment to run it. Or the backers have to provide it, I suppose.

 

[AlanB]

Of course, then it has to find the equipment to run it. Or the backers have to provide it, I suppose.

Amtrak has the equipment, it just needs some work. But there are still some 20 odd Amfleet I's sitting in mothballs right now, and if the service gets really popular, they could probably recall the other 20+ cars sitting on standby at NOL, just in case.

 

[Guest]

If this is the same maglev scheme that has been kicked around for a few years, it is so full of wild assumptions, errors in conceptual understanding, and impossible cost estimates that it is completely hopeless. It is an example of the frequent observation that nothing has the ability to survive like a bad idea.
Building the Shanghai Airport Maglev cured the Chinese of all though of using it for a longer line. Bad news of govenment bungles are of course severly repressed, but there have been mumbles that this thing proved to cost about 4 times as much as a high speed railroad line would, and also is more expensive to operate. You don't think the energy to give the vehicle levitation si free do you?

As to the Desert Wind restoration: Has anybody asked UP what it would take in additional track capacity for them to agree to it?

I'm pretty sure that the energy used to levitate it is made up by reduced friction and more efficient traction. That being said, I am sure it costs a lot more than using established technology. If maglev were more popular, I expect it could compete.

There ARE still plans to build a Shanghai international-Hongqiao domestic airport line by 2010, in time for the world expo. A longer Shanghai-Hangzhou line is still in limbo, and seems unlikely in the near future.

Click here for an recent story about this

 

[PSurfliner]

If this is the same maglev scheme that has been kicked around for a few years, it is so full of wild assumptions, errors in conceptual understanding, and impossible cost estimates that it is completely hopeless. It is an example of the frequent observation that nothing has the ability to survive like a bad idea.

There are actually 2 groups looking at high-speed service to Vegas (Amtrak not included here). There is the California-Nevada Interstate Maglev project (300 mph from Anaheim to Vegas) and the DesertXpress Enterprises conventional 125-mph high-speed rail line from Victorville to Vegas. The LA Times article refer to the latter, which is also the more plausible of the two.

The article discusses having the $3B high-speed rail project (funded entirely by private investors which haven't been identified yet) built by 2012. That would be amazing and that's why it probably won't happen.

 

[George Harris]

Starting at Victorville mekes no sense unless they are planning 100 acres of parking.

Be that as is may, that still leaves 220 miles the way the railroad currently goes to get to Las Vegas. $3 billion = $13.6 million per mile. given teh terrain, this is really cheap. In fact, I would say it is way too cheap. Brobably half or less what it ought to be by the time you build a high speed alignment, grade separate wht roads there are, provide all the environmental mitigation, get equipment, build track, signals, communications, etc.

My really wild guess is that quotes less thn $10 billion plus for a high speed railroad, and I would suspect the difference between a 125 mph line and a 250 mph line would be very small, or $30 billion for a Maglev line would have more optimism than analysis in them.

George

 

[gyuri_ft]

This story:

LA Times story

in this morning's paper talked about a possible train from Victorville to Las Vegas. Kind of buried in the story is a mention that Amtrak is considering reviving the Desert Wind.

Desert Wind will come... sure, after Dubyuh and his Minionetta go. :lol: Would be pretty surprised if it would happen sooner.

For the record, the Desert Wind was cut by a Democrat administration.

A silly elephant does not mean a smart donkey.... BTW: I know, Minionetta is a Democrat - and all respect for his fate during WW-II. But that does not make him better from railway point of view. Whatever color the cat has: if it catches the mouse it's a good cat.

 

[AlanB]

A silly elephant does not mean a smart donkey.... BTW: I know, Minionetta is a Democrat - and all respect for his fate during WW-II. But that does not make him better from railway point of view. Whatever color the cat has: if it catches the mouse it's a good cat.

Well frankly I for one don't believe that his track record over the last few years, from the railway point of view is really his. Mr. Minetta is a well educated man, yet some of the things that he spouted during his tenure surprised me at first. Then I realized upon further though why they surprised me, I don't think that he didn't know better. I think that it was his way of trying to subtley let people know that what he was saying wasn't what he believed, but rather what he was ordered to say.

I don't believe for one minute that Mr. Minetta was as anti-Amtrak as he appeared to be. He wasn't making the decisions about Amtrak, they were coming from higher up, and I don't mean the President.

One reason that I fully believe this, was the rather early resignation of Tommy Thompson as Health and Human Services Secretary. I think that Tommy left the administration rather quickly for two major reasons. First, he really wanted to be the Transportation Sec and he was bitterly disapointed that he didn't get that job, but he took HHS I think because he believed in the President and because he hoped that he could still have some influence on Amtrak. The second reason was the way the White House is run, and it's decidedly anti-Amtrak stance. A stance that I know did not sit well with Tommy, who for a number of years prior to his appointment to HHS, was one of Amtrak's staunchest supporters. And he was offered HHS, rather than Sec Trans, because someone (or perhaps 2 people) in the White House wanted him silenced on the Amtrak issue. When he saw how bad things were and realized that he couldn't have any impact, and I'm sure that he tried to impact things, he left.

And my vote for the anti-Amtrakers goes to VP Chenney and/or presidential advisor Carl Rove. This decidedly anti-Amtrak stance from the White House is not coming from Bush, even though it will go down in the record books against him.

All of this is of course my personal opinion based upon my observations of the events and situations in DC.

 

[George Harris]

I'm pretty sure that the energy used to levitate it is made up by reduced friction and more efficient traction.

Nope.

That being said, I am sure it costs a lot more than using established technology. If maglev were more popular, I expect it could compete.

Can't comment. My crystal ball is cloudy today.

There ARE still plans to build a Shanghai international-Hongqiao domestic airport line by 2010, in time for the world expo. A longer Shanghai-Hangzhou line is still in limbo, and seems unlikely in the near future.

Read the link. Surprising given the attitude expressed publically by some of the people in the Miinistry of Railways a couple of years ago. However, that it is being done does not mean it makes good since to do so, particularly in a command economy.

George

 

[Guest]

Published by the Australian Academy of Science, found here

Maglev technology has several theoretical advantages over conventional high-speed trains. Since there is no wheel-to-track contact, less energy is lost due to friction and the trains create less noise. Maglevs also use less energy to achieve the same speed as conventional very fast trains.

I'm not necessarily saying China isn't making a mistake by pushing forward with this. But it think there is a fair amount of evidence that once a government decides to do something like this to show off, they don't care too much what their people think.

I also think many of the concerns of the people are irrational. The German system has been shown to give off very little magnetic radiation (the Japanese system can cause problems though). The noise factor will be a problem with any train, and no metallic noise is produced, just wind. If China shared information more freely, the people would not be complaining as much.

Virtually every technology does go down in price once it is adopted. I realize that not all get off the ground, but enough people (and governments) seem to be willing to try it that it probably will.

 

[George Harris]

Published by the Australian Academy of Science, found here

Maglev technology has several theoretical advantages over conventional high-speed trains. Since there is no wheel-to-track contact, less energy is lost due to friction and the trains create less noise. Maglevs also use less energy to achieve the same speed as conventional very fast trains.

Nice quote, but where's the beef? I see nothing that says any sort of analysis has been made, measurements taken, etc. I agree to "theoretical advantages" but so far these seem to be more theoretical than real. There have been any number of transport "solutions" proposed over the years that had apparently very good theoretical advantages that did not prove out practically. At this point there is nothing to say that maglev is anything other than another one of these, and a very high priced one at that. So far, and I will try to dig up my source, I have seen a discussion, and I believe it was in the Railway Gazette to the effect that the energy consumption was higher. The noise is lower, but minimally so, and that more to a better aerodynamic shape than anything. At high speeds a large componenet of the noise is aerodynamic, not wheel/rail. With the Shinkanses, their pantograph noise is also somewhat higher than it ought to be. That is the reason for the "ears" you see beside the pantographs on the Shinkansen train sets.

 

[Guest]

Everything I've read indicates that maglev systems use significantly more electricity to maintain any kind of speed than the current TGV type systems; and perhaps more significantly, they are incompatible with conventional lines. By contrast, high speed trains can (usually) operate at lower speeds on conventional, non-dedicated lines, adding all kinds of flexibility for extensions outside the high-speed corridors. Maglev systems can only be used for maglev lines.

 

[Guest]

I will give you that they are incompatible with conventional lines, but why would you run a TGV or ICE on a conventional line (an electric one, they can't run with out wires) when you can use a cheaper conventional train? Although I have no numbers, I am sure the investment and maintenance are many times greater.

Now, I have these figures from the primary manufacturer of Maglevs, transrapid, so they may be biased in some way, but I doubt they are physically wrong. They measure in energy used per seat per kilometer (like a passenger mile, which people here like). See them here

I don't know about Japanese tech however. It may indeed use more energy.

Everything I've read indicates that maglev systems use significantly more electricity to maintain any kind of speed than the current TGV type systems

My figures would say the exact opposite. The amount of energy used by the ICE to go 300 km/h is about the same as a transrapid uses to go 400 km/h. In fact, only at very low speeds does a conventional train use less energy than a maglev.

 

[George Harris]

I will give you that they are incompatible with conventional lines, but why would you run a TGV or ICE on a conventional line (an electric one, they can't run with out wires) when you can use a cheaper conventional train?

The point about using the conventional line is that, as is done both in France and German, you do not have to limit the TGV or ICE equipment to only the new lines, but can run it beyond the new line on previously existing railway tracks to improve service to many point without having to build a 100% new railway line to them.

Now, I have these figures from the primary manufacturer of Maglevs, transrapid, so they may be biased in some way, but I doubt they are physically wrong.
The amount of energy used by the ICE to go 300 km/h is about the same as a transrapid uses to go 400 km/h. In fact, only at very low speeds does a conventional train use less energy than a maglev.

I have seen these numbers, but have trouble believeing that they will prove out in a real-world situation. In fact, I am a complete skeptic. In other words, I can easily believe that they are phyically wrong. I could say more, but it would be considerably less polite than that, even though it might be nore accurate.

If the system is so great, let the promoters of this stuff can find sufficient believers - private money not extorted from taxpayers - to put in a system of a couple of hundred miles and then after a few years we will have a real world comparison. Until then No way.

When the current basic system of hauling people and goods on railroads was first tried out in the 1820's, it did not take but a very few years for the idea to be widely accepted, without a lot of push.