I am assuming you’re booking the 2118 fare. I'd not wait to recheck fares for a month or two. I'd check at least weekly for the next couple months to improve your chances of both catching a drop and grabbing the limited allocation at the lower bucket before it's sold.
Fare Buckets - and when do they increase/decrease?
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Thanks. Yes, $2118. I have checked every day for months. If it happens, I will catch it. But at some point, I will book it regardless of the price.
Since your dates aren't very flexible, I'd look at inventory now (dummy reservation for up to 8 passengers, each in their own room). If it looks like there is not much open inventory, I strongly suggest you follow @niemi24s advice, book it at current 2nd highest bucket, then monitor for a drop and claim a refund if there is one. As he points out, there is a higher bucket and the price could well go up by another $300.
I really appreciate all your help and knowledge. But I don't understand, looking at inventory and booking "dummy reservations". Can you please explain how that's done?
trimetbusfan
OBS Chief
basically, try to book a reservation with '8 passengers.' (but don't actually book it).
You will then be able to use the + and - buttons to select between 4 to 8 rooms. This will give you a sense of how much inventory they have which will tell you the likelihood if they might lower some rooms into a lower bucket at some point.
It appears that Amtrak is adopting the yield management style used by airlines, at least to some degree. Meaning not just based on booking as far in advance as possible, in order to find the lowest fare almost a year ahead of time. More like taking into account the dates where travel demand is expected to peak, such as holidays, and pricing accordingly.
They've been moving that direction for several year now, even before COVID.
joelkfla
Engineer
SWC has jumped to high bucket, and has at least 8 bedrooms available, so no point in booking it now rather than later IMO. TE is still at 2nd highest, but of course it takes a day longer to get to LAX.
Winecliff Station
Service Attendant
Yes it seems that way in one direction but not so much in the reverse. Otherwise early December and all of January would be low bucket but I’m not seeing that either.
I did 8 seniors in 8 bedrooms and stopped at Traveler Details. Does this mean they had enough bedrooms for my 8 people? What does this tell me, other than they have plenty of bedrooms?
joelkfla
Engineer
Reread this post:
https://www.amtraktrains.com/thread...-do-they-increase-decrease.84867/post-1003422
Click on the chart snippet within that post to go to the full chart. Bucket fares are listed highest to lowest.
"Plenty of bedrooms" was precisely what you were looking for. The number of bedrooms available affects Amtrak's yield management decisions, as the objective of that practice is maximizing revenue while minimizing the number of rooms going out empty. 8 bedrooms available within 1 person each means they have sold a maximum of 2 out of the 10 available. Perhaps none have been sold, but 8 pax are the maximum you can enter on the website.
That means there is a stronger likelihood of a reallocation into lower buckets in order to move them. You should use adult, not senior, when doing this so you can easily compare to @niemi24s' chart, and see if there is a bucket move. Was it 2 for 3866, meaning 2 at second highest of 1933, and 4 at 8932, meaning 4 at highest of 2233? That would mean there are only 2 or 3 allocated to second bucket. You aren't booking, you're checking inventory, so the discount doesn't matter.
Think of this as an intelligence gathering (spying) exercise. You are trying to glean as much data as you can so as to gain insight into your adversary's (Amtrak's yield management team) potential moves.
In any case that is good news, there is a reasonably good likelihood they may allocate some inventory into lower buckets, and you won't lose a chance at a bedroom should you choose to wait a bit.
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Thank you for that bucket list.
You're welcome.
BTW, if anybody spots any one adult fares not seen on that chart please PM them to me.
$988 for a bedroom on the EB from Chi to Sea. A price that is worth the trip. Alas,if only bedrooms could be this price.
Last week you could have grabbed that price on the EB with one days notice. Unfortunately most people don’t plan for a huge trip that close.
Last week you could have grabbed that price on the EB with one days notice. Unfortunately most people don’t plan for a huge trip that close.
sporksradiant
Train Attendant
Is TE LAX-CHI or SAS-CHI on the bucket chart?
This is slick. I have been playing with various coach and sleeper fares on different trains and it works. I get some high bucket and some low buckets on certain dates. I know you are used to it but its new to me. Now I can tell if Im getting a deal or if Im not. Very interesting how this works. I really appreciate you showing me. Also, I did a booking for 8 people in bedrooms, and it was unavailable, but when I changed it to one person, it was available. Something someone else mentioned on this thread to see how many bedrooms are still available. Thanks again for the info.
If 8 rooms are not available, but one is, that means there are fewer than 8 are open, but at least one is. You should try other requests in between to suss out the number of open rooms. Assuming a total of 10 with 2 sleepers, if 7 are open, a bucket drop is still a reasonable possibility, if 2 are, not so much.
As it's lumped together with the SWC, it's LAX - CHI.
fordt
Train Attendant
This is interesting! I looked into Feb of next year (anniversary-2 seniors) for a bedroom on the Coastal Starlight, two weeks ago it was in the $1400’s, yesterday it was $1240. Does the day of the week make a difference too?
Ryan
Court Jester
Not particularly. Fares will move when people reserve/cancel or whenever they go in and reallocate. Can be any day.
trimetbusfan
OBS Chief
btw, your chart for roommates on trains 27/28 are showing the FB rates and not the roomette rates
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