Summary stats from the March report by category for the month and first 6 months of the fiscal year compared to prior years for a little deeper review:
Ridership and Revenue summary for the month of March compared to 2015:
System: ridership +1.9%, revenue: -1.3%
Acela: ridership -1.8%, revenue: -2.6%
NE Regional: ridership +1.8%, revenue -4.8%
State supported corridors: ridership +1.1%, revenue +1.9%
LD trains: ridership +7.5%, revenue +2.2%
Ridership and Revenue summary for the YTD from October to March:
System: ridership -1.7%, revenue: -2.3%
Acela: ridership +0.7%, revenue: -0.2%
NE Regional: ridership -1.4%, revenue -3.6%
State supported corridors: ridership -1.0%, revenue -0.3%
LD trains: ridership -0.5%, revenue -1.9%
Now for the actual ridership numbers for the first 6 months compared to same periods in FY14 and FY15:
FY Oct-Mar Total FY
FY14: 14,764,664 30,921,274
FY15: 15,063,105 30,882,129
FY16: 14,991,692 ?
Question is whether the FY16 ridership can reach or exceed the FY14 or FY15 totals. To reach the FY14 ridership totals, it will take 15,929,582 passengers for the last half of FY16. A new record, even by a tiny margin, helps with the political narrative. Percentage wise over the last 6 months of FY15, it will only take a 0.7% increase, so it could be reached with a busy summer season.
Gas prices have increased in recent weeks as WT crude has gone back up to circa $46 a barrel which could help ridership and sales a bit over the summer. Better OTP should help a bit as well, but it takes time for better OTP to draw customers back. The March numbers were ok, however Easter was in March this year, so that likely contributed to the overall bump in March.
I was going to compare ticket and F&B revenue numbers for the first 6 months, but this is enough data analysis for now...
Ridership and Revenue summary for the month of March compared to 2015:
System: ridership +1.9%, revenue: -1.3%
Acela: ridership -1.8%, revenue: -2.6%
NE Regional: ridership +1.8%, revenue -4.8%
State supported corridors: ridership +1.1%, revenue +1.9%
LD trains: ridership +7.5%, revenue +2.2%
Ridership and Revenue summary for the YTD from October to March:
System: ridership -1.7%, revenue: -2.3%
Acela: ridership +0.7%, revenue: -0.2%
NE Regional: ridership -1.4%, revenue -3.6%
State supported corridors: ridership -1.0%, revenue -0.3%
LD trains: ridership -0.5%, revenue -1.9%
Now for the actual ridership numbers for the first 6 months compared to same periods in FY14 and FY15:
FY Oct-Mar Total FY
FY14: 14,764,664 30,921,274
FY15: 15,063,105 30,882,129
FY16: 14,991,692 ?
Question is whether the FY16 ridership can reach or exceed the FY14 or FY15 totals. To reach the FY14 ridership totals, it will take 15,929,582 passengers for the last half of FY16. A new record, even by a tiny margin, helps with the political narrative. Percentage wise over the last 6 months of FY15, it will only take a 0.7% increase, so it could be reached with a busy summer season.
Gas prices have increased in recent weeks as WT crude has gone back up to circa $46 a barrel which could help ridership and sales a bit over the summer. Better OTP should help a bit as well, but it takes time for better OTP to draw customers back. The March numbers were ok, however Easter was in March this year, so that likely contributed to the overall bump in March.
I was going to compare ticket and F&B revenue numbers for the first 6 months, but this is enough data analysis for now...
