I think there's reason to be optimistic that TCMC will be extended to Target Field Station in Minneapolis once the NLX project turns it into an Amtrak station. I saw a rumor somewhere (Twitter?) that Amtrak was aiming to combine one of the NLX trips with the TCMC trips similar to the River Runner/Lincoln Service, which makes sense. NLX is just buying into the Midwest pool, and isn't building a heavy maintenance facility, so it's presumably preferable to have a revenue service to rotate equipment in and out of Chicago, rather than deadheading it.
Interesting, I'd not seen that rumor! I will say that, having attended the most recent Great River Rail Commission meeting (virtually) and tracking the project very closely, I've not heard of any of that, so I think the combined idea remains in the realm of rumor.
That being said, it would make sense to me to eventually have at least one of the proposed 4 NLX trips be through-running to Chicago, especially as that trip could theoretically skip the very time-consuming train movement into and out of TFS, and stop directly at SPUD instead. And of course, it would provide the much-coveted "one-seat ride" for passengers. I'd bet that wouldn't happen though, as it would make the scheduling more confusing for passengers ("why does this train not stop at Minneapolis") and would make Mpls boosters unhappy to only have 3/4 trips stopping there. If nothing else, though it would add significant travel time, I guess a Duluth-Chicago train could stop at both TFS and SPUD on the way to CHI.
My overall opinion on the above discussions related to the TCMC's terminus issue (and related NLX conenction) is that travel time is a huge selling point and real concern, and it takes a long time for trains to get between SPUD and TFS. The level of
deeply-baked anti-passenger rail skepticism in Minnesota is such that keepinng end-to-end travel times as short as possible while support for these new services builds is important, in my opinion. As much as I hate to say it, adding the at least ~40+ minutes (conservatively; maybe an hour) to trip times to either have the TCMC terminate at TFS, or the NLX at SPUD, would negatively affect perceptions of the services and make things more difficult.
I sympathize with and appreciate the frustation that many have about the disconnect between services at TFS and SPUD, as it is, honestly, annoying. Unfortunately, this is what happens when passenger rail planning and policy are done piecemeal, project-by-project, by separate entities, and over many years, and when intertia behind certain projects like NLX push them forward using the only plans there are, which is to say, imperfect plans. In the meantime, the honest truth is that Lyft/Uber/taxis exist, and takes about half the time (20 minutes driving, 30ish with traffic/wait for ride) of the Green Line. Though I will say, the Green Line takes 45 minutes, not an hour, between the stations, though I take the point that depending on wait time it could take one hour. (And you *can* take the 94 express bus from right by TFS, directly to Union Depot, in about ~35 minutes)
