First of all, the current fleet strategy plan - updated in the FY15 budget and FY15-FY19 Five Year financial plan - calls for the acquisition of the last 6 of the 28 new HSR trainsets in FY2021. So, the Acela Is will be in service through at least 2020 and, almost certainly, 2021. The Acelas will be around for at least another 5 to 6 years. By then, they will be over 20 years old.
The Acelas are expensive to operate and maintain. The price tag for an overhaul of a single Acela trainset is over $10 million. While there have been many posts about using the Acelas for the Keystone service, setting aside the issue of when all the eastern Keystone stops will have high level platforms, it makes little economic sense to convert the Acelas to the Keystone service.
....unless there's a shortage of Amfleets, Horizons, Metroliners and other single-level cars at that point.
Which there will be. So the Acelas will probably be pressed into service on the Keystone -- possibly simply converted to unpowered coaches. The high level platform projects will be done well before 2020; despite delays, the funding has mostly been secured and released now. It's not efficient, but it's better than undersupplying capacity.
I know that a number of Horizons and a few Amfleets are being released from the Midwest and California when the new bilevels show up, but they are just going to sink into the endless demand for increased service and lengthened consists on routes into New York. And meanwhile, they're all getting old and occasionally dying in crashes. The Metroliner cab cars are on their last legs already.
If Amtrak manages to get a large appropriation for new single-level cars, then the Acelas will be disposed of ASAP, of course. But I'm not expecting that to happen.
If you disagree, please convince me that the existing single-level coach fleet, with expected losses over the next 5 years, is sufficient for projected service levels to accomodate 2020 demand.