B
Busboy
Guest
what routes will the new sleeper cars be put on first? I have a trip planned on the LSL in Feb 15 and was wondering if I might see one of the new sleepers.
I would say that February isn't "well into 2015". Heck, we may not see sleeping cars until 2016 at the rate things are going.We'll be well into 2015 before we see any new sleeping cars in service.
I would go with not a chance answer as well. There has been little to no news on the Viewliner IIs recently except for the 2 baggage cars out in the system for testing and, i presume, maintenance training and familiarization. By February, 2015, there is a chance the LSL could have a new baggage car and an even smaller chance that it could have a new Viewliner diner (not including theMy bet is on the "not a chance" answer. February 2015 is only about four months from now. Before the sleepers go into service, they have to go through testing, then they are sent out for crew familiarization training. That sort of stuff seems to take forever with Amtrak. If the travel date were February 2016, then maybe. 2015? To coin a phrase, "not a chance."
Wow. That is a change. If CAF is going to deliver the 70 baggage cars first, before beginning the diners, bag dorms, and sleepers, well, wild guess every other week, or 4 per month off the assembly line, about 17 months worth of baggage cars. Then starting in November, sometime, maybe, end of …, then the first diner could come around May 2016. If they can push one baggage car a week off each line, then it's gonna be 8 per month. That would begin diners and stuff August of next year. I guess if the baggage cars are completed by that time, CAF could do diners on one line and sleepers on the other.The latest update capital projects status report for July came out a few weeks ago. At that time, delivery of production baggage cars was expected to begin sometime in November. All other car types have been pushed to the back of the production line to allow CAF time to resolve issues on those while the baggage cars are delivered.
Thanks for your careful calculations. My heart sank when you said I was a little off. I feared that I got a Fiscal Year wrong or something. But we differ by only a month or two, so I can relax.Woody, your time calculations are a little off. If the production lines are producing only 1 car/week ... takes you from November 2014 into March 2016. If it's 2 cars/week ... then July 2015.
Assuming that all the bugs have been worked out in the baggage cars, there can't really be too many issues to fix with the other cars. After all, the trucks, couplers & drawgear, frames, bodies, gangways and end doors, most of the electrical, and even the windows are pretty much the same. The interiors are largely by RailPlan, who seem to be quite reliable, and they are mostly tweaked versions of existing Viewliner/Superliner II module designs.All other car types have been pushed to the back of the production line to allow CAF time to resolve issues on those while the baggage cars are delivered.
But lots and lots of no news can't be good either. Acela was a hot item in the press because as a high speed train, everyone had their eyes looking 2 hours a day. These are long distance cars, which even on AU, the delays are forgiven way to easily, while other rail media is openly scolding Boardman and related parties for not clarifying anything.order, despite repeated delays, is one of those cases where So I do believe this CAF
"no news is good news".
I see cash management as one reason to slow walk this order, until Amtrak passes thru the worst period of lease buyouts/debt reduction. Congress management could be another, to finance any option order at a time and in a manner so as not to inflame the haters.
It really looks to me like producing all the baggage cars first is a cash management action...
There is still something really odd about this:
Assuming that all the bugs have been worked out in the baggage cars ...... I'm really suspicious that the delivery order rearrangement has more to do with cash management than anything else.All other car types have been pushed to the back of the production line to allow CAF time to resolve issues on those while the baggage cars are delivered.
This year was brutal on the cashflow, despite the new state funding under PRIIA provisions. There were a particularly huge number of leases which needed to be bought out, the Treasury grants for that were gone, the yearly federal funding arrived months late, the state funding generally arrived late, they had to pay Siemens for the ACS-64s before the RRIF loan would reimburse them, and of course the operating results were worse due to BNSF and NS.I see cash management as one reason to slow walk this order, until
Amtrak passes thru the worst period of lease buyouts/debt reduction.
Yes, The new cars will speed all trains on the NEC, becauseIs it a matter of " Let us get those darn heritage baggage cars off the NEC" ?
IMO the LD trains are gumming up the fluidity of the NEC. …
The old baggage cars are deteriorating at different rates so that each one
is have a different MAS posted for it ?
It has been discussed before that the Palmetto, the Carolinian, and #66/#67 could be candidates to get the new baggage cars first as the Heritage baggage cars are the only <125 mph rated car in their consists. The schedule for the overnight #66/#67 is heavily padded, so a new baggage car is not going to change the schedule, but the ability to operate at 125 mph could keep up with other Regional traffic in the evening and early morning runs on the NEC. Deploying the first batch of new baggage cars to those trains would also keep them in the east for servicing and oversight of the roll-out.I hadn't thought of this before, but the day train Palmetto, NY-Savannah, could get new bag cars first: It has no diner in the consist. The Lake Shore Ltd could be the last to get new bag cars and diners, because it does not run on the NE.
You could be right but I honestly don't think so. I think Amtrak was actually trying to move as quickly as they could when they had an opportunity because their funding is cyclical. Replacing these baggage cars is #1 because it will improve OTP and therefore revenue (also, less maint costs). So overall it should improve their cash flow.In fact, I wonder if this could be more slow-walking by Amtrak
and CAF. Maybe its cheaper to make completion payments
on baggage cars than on the fancier ones, postponing that
cash demand a few more months.
Or, the Fleet Renewal Plan emphasizes how badly Amtrak
wants competing bids for its equipment buys. Siemens is in
the game with the launch order for 70 or so Next Generation
single-level coaches from All Aboard Florida. CAF could be
ready to bid with an open assembly line, too, if the deliveries
of the Viewliner IIs -- including a possible small option order --
extends the production until an order can be put out to bid.
Pure speculation on my part, need I point out.
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