10 years from now

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BuzzKillington

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Mar 2, 2009
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At NTD, I got to speak with a representative from NARP and got him to admit that their map of US rail was probably a pipe dream.... so my question is...

Exactly 10 Years from now, what do you truly think Amtrak will be like? How will it be different than it is today? Better? Worse?
 
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Not a bad thought, but just remember, no more than a year ago, I think we'd all have been happy if Amtrak was exactly the same in 10 years...
 
My fear is that it will be exactly the same.
Yea, pretty close. The cars will be another 10 years older.

The dining cars will be run by Jack In The Box vending machines, and sleeper passengers will not only have to bring their own sheets, towels, and toilet paper, but will only get one cold cheese sandwich to eat (water is extra).
 
In 10 years, the only thing that I can foresee with any certainty is that Sen. Byrd will be dead and the Cardinal will (most likely) be gone. The rest is just pure speculation...

Rising fuel costs (again) increase demand for intercity rail travel less than 8 hrs.

NS upgrades the Pittsburgh Line, but still refuses to allow a second frequency of the Pennsylvanian.

Amfleet IIIs are arriving slowly from Japan, but mechanical problems prevent them from being run in revenue service.

20% of the Superliner sleeping car fleet is out of service for irreparable mechanical problems, and sleeper service is restricted to 2 cars max per train.

Diner-lite is standard, and the CCC is considered Amtrak's "premier" dining service. All food on the NEC is cart service.

And the government wants to cut funding down to 0......
 
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Man, everyone's so skeptical! Call me a Pollyanna, but here are my predictions:

Probably:

-New service from Lynchburg to Roanoke and possibly Bristol

-New service from Oklahoma City to Newton/Kansas City

-Restored service NOL-ORL and possibly MIA

-Daily service from LAX to SAS to NOL to ORL and possibly MIA (not one train)

-More Missouri River Runner frequencies

-Second Vancouver Cascades frequency

-New service to Asheville, NC from Raleigh

-New service to Wilmington, NC

-New commuter service from New Haven to Springfield

-MARC extension to Elkton and possibly Newark or Wilmington

-Downeaster extended to Brunswick, ME (and possibly work begun for a Bangor service)

Wouldn't be surprised one way or the other:

-Pennsylvanian extended to Cleveland and possibly Detroit

-Pioneer Reinstated

-Congress mandates a study of reinstating the Desert Wind

-New Service Dallas to Houston

-New service on the FEC

-New Service Atlanta to Florida

-New 3-C service Cleveland-Columbus-Dayton-Cincinnati

-Work started on Wilmington-Dover-Ocean City line

-WAS-RVM electrification project started

Rafi
 
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It would be nice to see faster times for the LSL (12-13 hours NYC to Chicago) and an end to Diner Lite

Restored Broadway Limited with full diner and 2-3 Viewliners (12-13 hours NYC to Chicago)

Longer trains on Silver Service with at least 4 Viewliners each train (maybe 17 hours NYC to Miami)

Adirondack upgrades with faster rails north of Albany

Current Diner Lite cars moved to shorter distance trains such as Adirondack, Maple Leaf, Carolinian, and Palmetto.

Diner on the Cardinal if it is still running.

I'd love to see new lounge cars on long distance Eastern trains, but I'm not hopeful.
 
Part One-The Eastern Seaboard

-Horizon cars will be extensively rebuilt with bigger windows and better design and will be assigned to the Silver trains (by this point, the Star, Meteor, and Palm, with the Palm using the FEC route, and bus service to Tampa, with a thru train from Tampa to Miami). Also, some Heritage Diners will become Atlantic Parlour cars.

-New NE overnight trains will include the Skyline Connection (aka Boston-Washington overnight train, former Night Owl, Twilight Shoreliner, and Federal), the Montrealer, and the Torontoan (former Niagera Rainbow of the '90s). This is possible with the Amtrak order of 50 Viewliner sleepers in 2010-4. Only a CD for the SC and Torontoan, but a Diner Lounge for the Montrealer/

-Amfleet II Diner Lite car will be rearanged with a grill (taking the place of a boothand totally redesigned interior to better fit the passengers.

-Broadway Limited will return, using a Silver trainset offering premere service. The LSL will be the Twenty-First Century Limited, also offering superb service.

-Another new train with the additional equipment will be the Midwest Connection. Leaving either Boston or New York as late as possibele, the train arrives in PGH, then gets split. One section runs the ex B&O route to Chicago (ore a mixture of routes the get places like Canton, Lima, and Fort Wayne). The other goes down tohe NS Chicago main either all the way to ChI or to Toledo, where the train would head up to Detroit, then down to CHI. Extra cars could be added at Detroit or a new base in TOL.

Thats all I have in me for now, more will come later, including the Midwest and West.

cpamtfan-Peter
 
It would be nice to see faster times for the LSL (12-13 hours NYC to Chicago) and an end to Diner LiteRestored Broadway Limited with full diner and 2-3 Viewliners (12-13 hours NYC to Chicago)

Longer trains on Silver Service with at least 4 Viewliners each train (maybe 17 hours NYC to Miami)

Adirondack upgrades with faster rails north of Albany

Current Diner Lite cars moved to shorter distance trains such as Adirondack, Maple Leaf, Carolinian, and Palmetto.

Diner on the Cardinal if it is still running.

I'd love to see new lounge cars on long distance Eastern trains, but I'm not hopeful.

It is imposible to get any times down that low, its just impossible, sepecially with the current fleet only being able to go 110.

DinerLites, as I have stated before, are just about impossible to run on any day trains since they only have twenty five (soon to be 25).
 
Part of Desert Wind (LAX to Las Vegas) is being restored despite being objection by UP (court overruled). Huge demand forced to have 2nd frequency on that line, thanks to Eric (GG-1) as a president of Las Vegas - Los Angeles corridor.
 
My fear is that it will be exactly the same.
Compare Amtrak 2009 to Amtrak 1999.

What are the differences?

They are only minor.

(I do take in consideration that Acela was introduced 2000, but as this has been clear in 1999 i don't count it as major).

That means. Amtrak will still exist, which is very good news as Amtrak was over years most likely to die within the next 12 months.

But of course, personally I hope that in 2019 there will be a extensive high speed network all over the US.
 
With a goal of 5 hours from NYP to Buffalo and 4.5 from Cleveland to Chicago... I don't think it should be that out of the question for those times. Maybe at tops 14 hours, but 18.5 to 20 hours is ridiculous.

Also, Diner Lites should not be run on long distance trains anymore so that will free up some for the daylight medium distance trains.
 
Ethan Allen will be extended to Burlington, VT from Rutland, VT. Ridership on the Vermonter will be halved and the train will be shortened or cut back in some way. Potentially even gone, but I can't see that from a VT political perspective.

I think we'll be seeing the arrival of new coach and sleeper cars, as well as potentially diners. I can certainly see such an order being placed in the next 4-6 years given Obama/Biden and the democratic majority in Congress right now.

There will at least be a second, if not a third, Cascades train to Vancouver.

Also, I think longer trains on popular routes, or at least additional frequencies.

Probably also some planning on what to replace the Acela with, seeing as it will be 20 years old at that point.
 
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Jack Links will be sold in the lounge car. Yea, that's the only change I can think of.
 
Amtrak's new North River tunnels will be in the midst of its third $352 million enviromental impact study. Expected opening date has been rescheduled to 2030.
 
Not all about Amtrak but closely related other rail activities around New York.

Installation of Constant Tension Catenary in portions of the NEC where speeds higher than 125mph is possible have just been completed, thus allowing operation of Acelas at upto 150mph on those segments.

Scranton to New York service has started and extension to Binghamton is in advanced stages of development.

People are still arguing about and studying MOM one more time :)

DLRT service Camden - Glassboro is running.

Service from Newark to West Trenton is about to be restored.

HBLRT extension to Tenafly has been running for a while.

Serious consideration is being given to the extension of HBLRT across to Staten Island.

LIRR ESA is up and running.

NJT NYPSE is about to be up and running after a delay of a couple of years from the original schedule

The new Portal Bridge has been in service about 4 years.

Work on New B&P Tunnel is in very advanced stage.
 
I enjoyed reading the light hearted comments above and the predictions as to what new trains will be implemented. If you want a serious answer then you need to look at where fuel costs will be 10 years from now. Disregarding the extreme run up last summer, oil prices are basically double 10 years ago. However, if the US does not get serious about fuel sources and continues to import most of it's liquid fuel then the volatility can and will continue. There is plenty of fuel here in the US, we just don't seem to want to develop it. There is plenty of potential for oil production offshore Atlantic and California and in Alaska. In addition oil can be extracted from the Tar Sands, Shale and Coal. It just takes the will and the money and a committment of some kind about pricing from the Feds. In any case, one thing we can count on is fuel costs will continue to rise faster than commodity prices of anything else. This will spur the development of alternate means of transportation. More mainline railroads will turn to electrification of busy mainlines as economics become positive. More electricity will come mainly from coal and nuclear fuel. Wind and Solar will not make much of a contribution.

When gas hit $4 a gallon people started to look for some other way to get to work and travel rather than driving. This demand is what will ultimately drive the development of inter-city passenger rail and inner-city transit. Just throwing money at it will not get the results we would like, there has to be increased demand. Then politicians will react and appropriate the money to build passenger rail.

I would not predict what trains will be implemented except to say that long distance service will remain static with a few exceptions simply because of the vast distances covered by these trains and the sparse population density along the routes. They will continue to serve vacation travelers, tourists and the elderly that don't want to fly and the small communities that have no air service. The exceptions will be perhaps additional auto train routes particularly in the west and between Chicago and Florida. Other exceptions would be areas that cry out for service such as Texas-Colorado and perhaps a restored Desert Wind/Pioneer and maybe an extended Heartland Flyer to KC and beyond(I assume here that the Sunset Limited/Gulf Coast quandry will be resolved this year). Most of the growth that Amtrak will see in the future will be in the short distance corridors with the addition of new corridors and the improvement in track structure, frequencies and speeds on existing corridors. True high speed rail as in Europe and Japan is a long long way off and would require many billions of $$$. I would be surprised if any true HS showed up in the next 10 years. Most groups have already redefined high speed rail as highER speed rail. Anyway, my 2 cents worth.
 
With a goal of 5 hours from NYP to Buffalo and 4.5 from Cleveland to Chicago... I don't think it should be that out of the question for those times. Maybe at tops 14 hours, but 18.5 to 20 hours is ridiculous.
Also, Diner Lites should not be run on long distance trains anymore so that will free up some for the daylight medium distance trains.
The faster time of the 20th Century Limited from NYC to Chicago and vv was 16 hours. That's the New York Central main was 4 through tracks with numerous sidings. The 20th Century was given the right of way over all other passenger trains and all freight trains. The only stop between Albany and Gary, Ind was a operating stop at Buffalo. The infrastructure is no longer there is even make the same time at the 20th Century much less something faster.
 
I think in 10 years there will be a larger number of state supported corridors like we have in California, Illinois, North Carolina and others places now. I think the national Amtrak network will be similar to now with a few additions. I think equipment will be jointly owned by Amtrak and states. I think the first true HSR line from the Bay area to Southern California will be operating and if it is successful, other areas will develop similar lines. A network of true HSR lines is probably 20-30 years away if it works in California.
 
[The faster time of the 20th Century Limited from NYC to Chicago and vv was 16 hours. That's the New York Central main was 4 through tracks with numerous sidings. The 20th Century was given the right of way over all other passenger trains and all freight trains. The only stop between Albany and Gary, Ind was a operating stop at Buffalo. The infrastructure is no longer there is even make the same time at the 20th Century much less something faster.
110mph is faster than the 20th Century Limited ran and if these grants actually come to fruition, it should be 110mph over about 80% of the trip. So IF they get done what needs to be done with the funding, the train could indeed move faster than the trains "back in the day". A dedicated track for passenger trains also needs to be in place which is "in the plans" as well.
 
Trains need tracks to run on and Amtrak runs on freight train tracks. In parts of the country railroad tracks have been taken up. The rails, cross ties and the rock bed are gone and you can not even tell there was ever a railroad track there. Never thought I would see that.

One can only hope the existing Amtrak routes continue.
 
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I expect the following:

Equipment:

1) The Viewliner order will be expanded to 75 baggage cars, 40 baggage-dorms, 30 diners, 30 lounge cars, 40 sleepers, and 150 coach cars. The initial order will be placed, with options for the additional outlined above, within a year and by the time 2019 rolls around, all of it will be in service.

2) Superliner IIIs will be ordered within the next 5 years. They will probably be starting to come on line. They will include perhaps 10 diners, 10 lounge cars, 10 trans-dorms, 20 cafe-coach cars, 40 baggage-coach cars, 40 sleepers, and 60 coach cars.

3) Bi-Level cars similar to the California cars will operate all mid-west corridors, specifically engineered for reliability in cold weather.

4) EMU cars capable of operating faster than the Acela does in various conditions will be running the corridor as an as-yet-unnamed high speed premium service. They will most likely be built by TALGO.

5) More California cars will be ordered and delivered. It will include a few California Sleepers.

6) The Amfleet Is will be exclusively used in an expanded Northeast Corridor, as mentioned below. They will continue to be refurbished and will not be approaching retirement.

7) The Horizons will be in operation with some commuter agency- or used in a contract operated commuter service.

8) The Amfleet IIs will be used in various high-speed, relatively long-distance day trains operating out of New York. They will provide sit-down table service via Diner-Lite cars.

9) If the Acela sets are still in service, they will be running at 125-135 mph on an improved Keystone service. Amtrak will purchase the Broadway up to Pittsburgh from Norfolk Southern and be intending to electrify it and extend Keystone trains all the way to Pittsburgh.

Misc:

Amtrak will standardize eastern long-distance trainsets, with three types.

Type A) 2 P42, VL bag-dorm, 3 VL Sleepers, VL Diner, VL Lounge, 5-6 VL Coaches

Type B) 1 P42, 4 VL coaches, AMFII Diner/Lite or VL Diner, VL Sleeper, VL Bag-dorm, with a few revenue rooms.

Type C) 2 P42s, H-baggage car, 4 AMFII coaches, AMF II Diner-Lite, 5 AMFII coaches.

Eastern LD Routes:

Broadway Limited or a train of a different name running Pennsy trackage NYP-PGH and the former B&O PGH-CHI will be reinstated. It will be a type-A train. Approximately 16 hours, with intentions to reduce it to 14-15 when HAR-PGH is electrified.

Lake Shore Limited will run with slightly reduced times due to speeding up the route incrementally to Buffalo. It will be a type A train, with a 16 hour run time.

Cardinal: Senator Byrd will die. The train will be renamed either “Senator Byrd” or “Robert Byrd” in his honor. It will graduate to daily service and be a Type A train.

Silver Service: Palm, Meteor, and Star will run. All will run NYP-MIA. The Star will run the A line to TPA, the Meteor will run the S line to TPA, and the Palm will run the FEC. All will be type A trains and leave Miami and New York at 8AM, 12 PM, and 6 PM respectively.

Crescent: Will be a type A train running same as always.

Twilight Shoreliner- will be restored, and be a modified type C with a sleeper at the end.

Spirit of Carolina: A type B train aping the Carolinian with a 12 hour offset.

Niagara Rainbow: Type B NYP-Toronto train running overnight on the Water Level route.

Spirit of Montreal: A Type B train running over the Adirondack’s route at night.

Spirit of Detroit: A Type B train running NYP-DET via Windsor overnight.

Empire State Express A Type C train running NYP-DET via Windsor during the day.

Montrealer: Type B train running over the Vermonters route to Toronto.

Vermonter: Graduates to type C and continues to Montreal

Adirondack: Graduates to Type C

Palmetto: Will continue to run, leaving at 6 AM. Improved corridor speeds will allow it to run all the way to Jackson. It will be a Type C.

Carolinian: Will graduate to Type C.

Pennsylvanian Graduates to type C.

Scarlet Ohara A type-C day train over the Crescent’s route NYP to ATL.

Northeast Corridor:

High speed service will be met WAS-BOS by EMU sets. 2 hours New York to either BOS or WAS. Metro-North will sell Amtrak its portion of the Northeast Corridor in exchange for priority trackage rights.

The inland Route and Empire Corridor NYP-ALB will be considered part of the Northeast Corridor.

Service NYP-WAS will triple.

Service NYP-NHV will double.

NYP-NHV-SPG-BOS will cover 25% of NYP-BOS service.

NYP-ALB-SPG-BOS will cover 15% of NYP-BOS service.

NYP-NHV-BOS will cover remaining 60%.

Except for the high-speed sets, everything will be covered by Amfleets except:

Empire Service trains will, against all logic and reason, use refurbished Turboliners.

Midwest Corridors:

Hoosier Corridor: CHI-IND. Will be met by bi-level trains, perhaps 4 round trips a day. The Senator Byrd/Cardinal will stop carrying passengers locally between CHI and IND.

Toledo Corridor: CHI-TOL. Will run 3 round trips.

3C Corridor: Will run as mentioned by others, perhaps 3 round trips a day.

Pere Marquette Corridor: Pere Marqutte route upgraded to 2, perhaps 3 runs a day.

Lincoln Corridor: Expanded to 10 RT, day.

Missouri River Runner: 4 RT, Day

Carbondale Corridor: 4RT, Day.

Burlington/Quincy Corridor: 4 RT a day each to Burlington and Quincy. SWC and CZ stop carrying local passengers beyond Galesburg. (I.E., Galesburg served by 8 corridor and 2 long distance round trips each day.)

Hiawatha Corridor: Electrified, handles 20 r/t a day, extended to Madison.

Wolverine Corridor: Expanded to 8 RT day, plus a Superliner overnight train to Toronto called the International.

Blue Water Corridor: Expanded to 4 RT/Day, plus a Superliner overnight train to Toronto called the Blue Water Limited.

Heartland Corridor: Kansas City to Houston, 4 round trips a day.

Western Corridors:

Cascades Corridor: More sets are purchased by Washington State, service approximately tripled in all directions, including to Vancouver.

Capitol Corridor: Expanded to approximately 25 round trips.

Pacific Surfliner: Service is approximately doubled and extended up the coast all the way to Dunsmuir. A modified Surfliner train, lets call it the Shasta Twilight will run SAN-LAX overnight. Some trains will use the old SP line to run into San Francisco.

San Joaquins: Six round trips OKJ-BFD and SAC-BFD, essentially doubling service. An overnight train called the Spirit of Califorina and a day train called the California Sun will run LAX or SAN-SAC.

Western Long Distance:

Before delivery of Superliner III cars:

Southwest Chief, California Zephyr, Empire Builder, Coast Starlight will remain as is.

Golden State Limited will replace the Sunset Limited and Texas Eagle.

City of Orlando will replace the City of New Orleans.

Houston/Orleans Flyer will run NOL-SAS and will convey a sleeper and coach car from LAX 3 days a week.

After Delivery of Superliner III cars:

Empire Builder, Coast Starlight, Golden State Limited will remain as is.

Sunset Limited will be restored LAX-NOL tri-weekly.

Houston/Orleans Flyer will convey sleeper and coach from the Golden State Limited the other four days.

City of Miami will replace the City of Orlando and operate out of Chicago late morning.

Panama Limited will run on a faster overnight schedule than the City of New Orleans currently does.

City of New Orleans will be restored as a coach day train. (We are effectively creating a long-distance corridor here.)

Texas Chief will operate CHI-HOU via KCY.

Southwest Chief discontinued.

Super Chief operates CHI-LAX in the evening with a first class lounge.

El Capitan operates CHI-LAX in the morning without a first class lounge.

North Coast Hiawatha restored.

James J. Hill Limited operates over Empire Builders route at a 12 hour offshoot.

Twin-City Zephyr operates overnight to MSP from CHI.

Desert Wind is restored, operating as a full service train CHI-SLC-LAX, leaving CHI in the morning.

Pioneer is restored operating CHI-DEN-SEA leaving CHI midday.

California Zephyr remains on its current routing and leaves Chicago in the evening.
 
I'm surprised so many people are pessimistic about the future. I think the tide has turned and the future of passenger is good.

Somewhat to my surprise, I must admit I agree with many of the predictions by Green Lion. I'm a Midwestern guy and a member of the Midwest High Speed Rail advocacy group which has proven very effective in lobbying for expanded train service in the Midwest, particularly Illinois. The Hiawatha route will have double-digit trains in each direction, with most forwarded to Madison over a new high speed route and a few heading up the Fox River valley to Green Bay. This Chicago-Milwaukee-Madison route is ripe for electrification.

The Lincoln service will also have hourly service over its length and will be electrified with maximum speeds of 110 mph and improved access through the Chicago and St. Louis metro areas. There was a great painting on display at National Train Day at Chicago Union Station showing an electrified Lincoln train speeding across the prairie. Off to the side was a Union Pacific freight train switching a grain elevator with yellow UP electric locomotives (!).

The other main Midwestern corridor, the Wolverine route to Detroit and vicinity will also have greatly expanded service, Ownership of this line will be largely by public entities including Amtrak (Chicago to Porter high speed, existing Porter to Kalamzoo high speed) and Michigan Department of Transportation (Kalamazoo to Detroit area). Greenie's proposal for an overnight train to Toronto, via the Detroit River tunnel, is an idea whose time will come in the next decade.

Chicago-Indianapolis will see additional service, but not a high speed, since Indiana has little interest in any improvements to anything, although the cafe cars could sell cigarettes and fireworks, two of Indiana's biggest revenue sources. More and faster service to Cincinnati would be nice, but it would take a complete rebuilding of the existing route and Indiana wouldn't cough up any money for it.

I also see increased service to the Twin Cities, as well as more, but not necessarily faster, Illinois-funded service to Carbondale, Qunicy, Dubuque and Peoria.

Overall, I think the future looks bright.
 
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