750 Mile Rule: Federal vs. State/Local Amtrak Funding

[A Voice]

I heard at another board of North Carolina's plan to extend the Carolinian to Connecticut to not have to fund the train anymore (http://www.ncleg.net/documentsites/committees/JointAppropriationsTransportation/2017_Session/3.22.17_RailDivision_NCRR/3.Worley_NCDOTRail_Division.pdf, p. 9).

I'm thinking the chances of Amtrak falling for that are slim and non, especially with proposed Amtrak budget cuts. The Carolinian covers 95% of its operating costs by ticket revenue (https://www.fra.dot.gov/eLib/Details/L18616) so it wouldn't be that much extra a cost to the US and would be far better than any LD train other than the Auto Train. Of course then other states could try to follow suit so it would set a precedent I'm pretty sure Amtrak/Congress wouldn't want set.

It may depend somewhat on the degree to which Connecticut also pushes for the extension; A second state desiring an expansion of service is a rather different matter than North Carolina just trying to get off the hook. But I do think the plan has a reasonable chance, partially for the reasons you mention (cost to Amtrak is marginal); The Carolinian is arguably already a long-distance train in all but technical definition. As mentioned, beware however of what the so-called '750 mile rule' actually says rather than what you read on the forum.

And yes, there is the issue of precedence. However, there are relatively few state-supported trains which are even possible candidates (such as the Pennsylvanian, again to Chicago). Nobody is going to buy the idea that Illinois suddenly decides the Carbondale trains really need to run all the way to Mississippi.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

So what happens to a break even train at fleet renewal time? State funded or not a break even train is not maintainable forever without additional funding.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

The non NEC corridor trains that have the next highest % of operating losses by ticket revenue are the Hiawatha (73%) and the Pennsylvanian (71%). The Pennsylvanian has a PM/TM of 211 while the Hiawatha service has a PM/TM of 151 so both would be reasonable to take off the states' backs while not driving up the federal Amtrak budget. After that, you get the Maple Leaf (68%, 116), Pacific Surfliner (63%, 157), Vermonter (62%, 138). They would be a harder sell (the Maple Leaf's PM/TM is lower than any LD train). If Canada chips in for the Leaf and the US's portion of the train's cost is lower then it might make more sense. For sure the Carolinian would be relatively "cheap" and the PM/TM would be higher than any non AT LD train by a big margin.

 

[A Voice]

So what happens to a break even train at fleet renewal time? State funded or not a break even train is not maintainable forever without additional funding.

Even back in the days of the "glidepath to self sufficiency" debacle, nobody was pretending that Amtrak (or passenger rail in general) could exist without significant capital support. There's no free lunch; Some form of subsidy will always be required no matter what you call it (operating, capital, or whatever).