Big Change in CAHSR Construction Schedule

[leemell]

The LA Times is reporting in this article that the Palmdale to LA link will be constructed several years earlier than originally planned. This will happen if the $250M and Cap & Trade funds are approved by the legislature. This has all the earmarks of back room trading by Jerry Brown and the legislature leadership. The Project has already help public community meetings on this segment. They have also posted an animation of the proposed routes.

 

[Paulus]

The scuttlebutt from commenters in the know on CAHSRBlog is that this is due to major problems with the Bakersfield-Palmdale section. To be honest, I think it's fairly pointless to build an orphaned stretch of track like that. I'd much rather that the time and money was used to extend north from Merced to Sacramento instead.

 

[Anderson]

*sighs*
Ok, let me think this through...

This section has a few possibilities and addresses the Burbank-LAUS connection issue that had come up in the past. However, simply getting a Burbank-LAUS connection alone sooner rather than later is a big win. More important, however, are a slew of possibilities:
(1) Palmdale-Bakersfield is going to take a little while. If the issues there basically boil down to "Engineering is going to take forever", this gives that segment somewhere to feed into on the southern end (rather than winding up with a bunch of San Joaquins that end up dead-ending at Palmdale).

(2) This raises the specter of an LA-Vegas train again. The fundamental problem with the Desert Xpress/Xpress West train was always where it would end in California. Neither Victorville nor Palmdale are exactly thrilling endpoint locations, after all (Palmdale requiring a two-hour Metrolink ride to get downtown and Victorville being halfway to Vegas), and if CAHSR gets tied up in a knot there's a chance that an LA-Vegas train proposal of some sort could end up negotiating access rights in the interim for a song. LA-Palmdale fixes that problem and should upend a lot of the objections that had previously been raised.

(3) And then there's commuter service and the connected possibilities there. Effectively, this plan would seem to have the effect of whacking an hour off of Palmdale-to-LA travel times. An hour off of a two-hour service. I've never heard of this sort of improvement being proposed. Even if in the short term you had to run "normal" trains, you'd probably be looking at something like 40 minutes of savings in the interim. The service seems to use the existing Palmdale station, so (particularly if they keep the tracks close enough to one another to add stops along the way instead of having them separate and fly all over the place) even if CAHSR were to go bust you could add some stations and move Metrolink to the new line. While not an optimal use, the possibility of eventually running commuter trains from Palmdale to Union Station in an hour or less (depending on stopping schedules and the like) alone makes this proposal worth looking at.*

*Oh, and I'm not kidding...I think this would actually be a reasonable use for the Acelas once Amtrak replaces them. Rearrange the sets and you could probably set up 12-15 commuter sets...which would be more than you could really ever use on this line.

 

[afigg]

The scuttlebutt from commenters in the know on CAHSRBlog is that this is due to major problems with the Bakersfield-Palmdale section. To be honest, I think it's fairly pointless to build an orphaned stretch of track like that. I'd much rather that the time and money was used to extend north from Merced to Sacramento instead.

Bakersfield to Palmdale will be the most difficult section of the CA HSR system to build because of the terrain and sharp elevation change from the valley to the Mojave desert. I can see the thinking behind moving up the construction of the Burbank to Palmdale section while the studies, engineering, design and years of construction take place on the Bakersfield to Palmdale segment. It provides some utility while waiting to complete the gap in the northern to southern CA system. And as Anderson notes, could help boost the Xpress West project if it is still alive.

There was major news that broke on the CA HSR project on Friday, but didn't really didn't get picked up in the news until Monday. The FRA issued the Record of Decision for the 114 mile Fresno to Bakersfield section, so that section has received the federal approval for its proposed alignment.

 

[neroden]

XpressWest is having some funding problems (and trouble with "Buy America" rules) but it's all solvable; even a small injection of support by the state of Nevada would probably be sufficient.

In fact, Bakersfield-Palmdale is relatively straightforward (although expensive, and there's some painful bits on the eastern side of Bakersfield). Palmdale-Burbank is really difficult in engineering terms -- comparable to going over Tejon Pass. There seems to be a massive political alignment in favor of actually going via Palmdale, however. So if that's certain, there's something to be said for starting work on the hard bit, since it's going to have long lead times.

 

[George Harris]

XpressWest is having some funding problems (and trouble with "Buy America" rules) but it's all solvable; even a small injection of support by the state of Nevada would probably be sufficient.

In fact, Bakersfield-Palmdale is relatively straightforward (although expensive, and there's some painful bits on the eastern side of Bakersfield). Palmdale-Burbank is really difficult in engineering terms -- comparable to going over Tejon Pass. There seems to be a massive political alignment in favor of actually going via Palmdale, however. So if that's certain, there's something to be said for starting work on the hard bit, since it's going to have long lead times.

At the risk of going too far in inside information, I can say the following: Tejon pass has two major problems: Fault crossings and Tejon Ranch. The first because to keep a rational alignment needs to cross the pass in tunnels and the second is political opposition, details of which I feel that I cannot say. Meant to say that these tunnels will bre through faults. That is really a VERY BAD idea.

I would not have called Palmdale to Burbank more difficult from an engineering and construction than Bakersfield to Tehatchapi. My perspective is that the opposite is the case.

From the perspective of "independent utility", that is having a facility that is useful even if the rest of the project is never built, Bakersfield to Burbank is the top of the list. Remember that right now the San Joaquin trains do not run through but require use of buses between Bakersfield and Los Angeles. With the improved alignment, even with the longer than highway distance resulting from going through Palmdale, diesel operation and a speed limit in the 90 to 125 mph range the run times become equal to or better than the current bus times making through trains rational.

 

[neroden]

I would not have called Palmdale to Burbank more difficult from an engineering and construction than Bakersfield to Tehatchapi. My perspective is that the opposite is the case.

You would have thought that, and that's exactly what CAHSR thought in their preliminary estimates.

But when they started delving into details of both of them, Palmdale to Burbank kept running into more and more problems, and the cost estimates started to shoot up until they were higher than Palmdale to Bakersfield. Partly due to various nature preserves and property owners, partly due to hydrology, partly due to geology.

That was actually the point at which they reconsidered Tejon (and rejected it for essentially political reasons; every politico in the entire LA area was backing Palmdale, while nobody in the Central Valley had an actual preference).

Bakersfield to Palmdale seems to be emptier, with lower-value property, and better-understood hydrology and geology. Don't ask me why. It ends up with simpler tunnels and bridges.

The Techachapi crossing looks like it'll cost exactly what they expected it to, but the Antelope Valley - San Fernando Valley route has had its cost estimates rising repeatedly.

 

[Anderson]

If I'm not mistaken, there's a non-trivial business case with Palmdale as well. It's not just the commuters I talk about, but the ability to do Las Vegas basically evaporates with Tejon due to added connecting costs.

 

[Blackwolf]

As much as there are gains for Nevada and little actual perceived value for California with a Las Vegas HSR route, the overall networking value of having a point in which two systems can actually connect as seamlessly as possible makes the whole system that much more valuable in the long-run. Much like the former Class-1's had with their individual routes connecting in many cities, and in a different manner the many Amtrak routes interlacing and creating a network for passengers to get from one city to another even at the cost of making a connection, this too could be the beginning for something larger.

So, lets just say that the CAHSR project goes fully as planned and the mainline route establishes a hub of sorts in Palmdale. And then lets say a HSR route to Las Vegas also gets built. Once up and running, with actual passenger numbers and revenues flowing instead of hypothetical projections, these two true Bullet Train routes set a standard in the USA that is no longer just a pipe dream but reality. Would it stop there? Remember that CAHSR is not just to LA, but San Francisco, San Jose, Sacramento, and San Diego with all major cities in-between.

Could, say, a route between Las Vegas and Phoenix be drawn up next? Because I'll bet thats a pretty large market for the casinos in Vegas too.

What about Denver to Vegas?

Denver to Chicago?

The limit is your imagination at that point.

For a HSR connection with California and everything east of the Sierra, going via Vegas would probably be the most realistic. Just my $0.02.

 

[Anderson]

Blackwolf,

I could not agree more. Network effects are something that is often underestimated...it's why Amtrak is doing as well as it is on the "extended NEC" (i.e. VA, VT, NY, etc.): You can connect to a ton of places with either a same-day or short overnight trip. With LA-Vegas as a handy example, a lot of folks could go to Palmdale and then switch to a CAHSR train heading up the valley. Likewise, LA-Vegas also carries possible connections along the Surfliner...taking trip options with no more than one connection as something to look into as a point of network effect potential.

A connection to Phoenix also carries with it a possible Amtrak connection from the SW Chief (if Victorville doesn't do it already) to the HSR trains, which would be a nice change for the system (since it beats the heck out of a Greyhound). Likewise, extending from Phoenix to Tucson opens up all sorts of possibilities...if you do the ROW right, you open up the possibility of a Kodama-style commuter-ish train.