Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[jis]

Brian, I have not been keeping track of this as well as you. How is the EIS coming along? I presume they will need one to get a RRIF loan? Also not sure what Florida law requires in that area.

Even though they are substantially using the Beach Line RoW, there would appear to be some amount of wetland mitigation involved specially where it crosses the marshy river area, no?

Just wondering aloud. As I said, not been following this too closely.

Thanks.

 

[chrsjrcj]

It was just confirmed to me this morning that the OOCEA Right of Way Committee unanimously approved the AAF Lease Agreement for constructing tracks along the Beachline Expressway in their monthly meeting yesterday. So the AAF project has passed another hurdle and it would appear that the Deseret Ranch issue has been put to rest. Good news indeed!

Great news!

 

[Brian_tampa]

Brian, I have not been keeping track of this as well as you. How is the EIS coming along? I presume they will need one to get a RRIF loan? Also not sure what Florida law requires in that area.
Even though they are substantially using the Beach Line RoW, there would appear to be some amount of wetland mitigation involved specially where it crosses the marshy river area, no?

Just wondering aloud. As I said, not been following this too closely.

Thanks.

On the AAF website they show the EIS schedule as recommending a preferred alternative by Setpember 2013 and a record of decision by April 2014. I have not heard any update on the EIS progress. It is still pretty early in the process.

http://www.allaboardflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AAF-Public-Scoping-Presentation-DualScreen-FINAL.pdf

As far as mitigation efforts, it shouldn't be much more than what developers go through here to build a mall or subdivision - probably easier due to the proposed route already having been impacted 50 years ago when they built the Beachline Expressway (as all AAF work should be within the ROW). State DEP permits and local permits - nothing special required, I can't see why not. But FDOT and the other state agencies (as well as the US Army Corps of Engineers) have already publicly stated their support and willingness to 'fast track' the permitting process.

As far as I can tell, the FONSI (finding of no significant environmental impact) that AAF received from the FRA back in January for Miami-WPB segment is all they need to apply for a RRIF loan that would be used for that section. Since AAF has not disclosed any details for the loan they applied for, I would assume any current RRIF loan application would be only for the Miami-WPB segment. I might be wrong, but the EIS or FONSI must be in place before applying for an RRIF loan. So if AAF wanted to apply for a loan for the Cocoa-Orlando section, a separate EA/EIS with a record of decision would be needed as part of the loan application. But RRIF loans are a long process as DesertXpress knows all too well (AAF will probably not apply for any other RRIF loans as the EIS will not be complete until next April!). I assume AAF went for the MIA-WPB section for the loan as they knew it had the least environmental impacts and would result in the quickest turn around to apply for a RRIF loan.

 

[Brian_tampa]

Here is a link to an article appearing tonight in the Orlando Sentinel regarding the AAF lease agreement with OOCEA.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-train-expressway-deal-20130614,0,4921090.story

It is funny because the reporter, Dan Tracy, is the guy who tried to stir stuff up back in April (here) by saying that the OOCEA "was fretting" about possible concerns with AAF leasing their ROW. See alternate article here about the "dispute". Oh well, I guess things DO get worked out in the end! Good news for AAF. The OOCEA Board meeting comes up soon. Hopefully they will approve this agreement at the June meeting. Next up will be obtaining the rolling stock and choosing an operator.

 

[Bus Nut]

I don't know, Anderson, but I would guess that part of that cost would be the cost of the acquisition of right of way. I think a quick review of other states' projects would be in order. Either in terms of payments made to Class 1's and/or complete acquisition costs. And then look at rebuilding costs for lines that were in poor shape when acquired. Some states do acquire lines that are not worth much in terms of freight value, but other states have no choice but to seek a lease or time-limited access to freight mainlines and must pay accordingly.

Does that $400mill figure from Orlando to Tampa include ROW? If the ROW is public, does it include the costs to move highway lanes?

Another thing that has me scratching my head a bit: This project is going to cost $1 billion, which I love. But if this can be done for $1 billion and (per my dinner with Daniel Lyons) Orlampa could probably be done for $400 million at 125 MPH for only a 15-minute loss, that gives a total cost of Tampa-Orlando-Miami of $1.4 billion or so. IIRC, the HSR project was supposed to run something like $10 billion for the same general route. What was the TPA-MIA travel time for that project (or, in other words, what were we going to pay $9 billion for)?

 

[Bus Nut]

Unless the highway situation gets much much worse, it is unlikely that my friends in Melbourne would give up on driving to Orlando and opt for the train, except occasionally to just ride the trains. What will they do once they get to Orlando with the minimal local public transport options available?

Imma just drop this right here..

www.golynx.com

www.sunrail.com

Lynx runs buses from Lynx Center 24/7 to the Airport and to Disney Transportation Ctr. From Disney Transportation Ctr you can catch a bus to any of the parks or resorts. Presumably Universal is just as accessible by public transportation.

 

[pennyk]

Unless the highway situation gets much much worse, it is unlikely that my friends in Melbourne would give up on driving to Orlando and opt for the train, except occasionally to just ride the trains. What will they do once they get to Orlando with the minimal local public transport options available?

Imma just drop this right here..

www.golynx.com

www.sunrail.com

Lynx runs buses from Lynx Center 24/7 to the Airport and to Disney Transportation Ctr. From Disney Transportation Ctr you can catch a bus to any of the parks or resorts. Presumably Universal is just as accessible by public transportation.

Although I sometimes take a Lynx bus to/from the Amtrak station, getting around the Orlando area by Lynx is not a simple task. Many buses only run once an hour.

 

[Bus Nut]

But this is ridiculous. Because FEC is private, not public, they can bypass the normal public process giving all of the intermediate communities no leverage to demand stops and so on which you would have with a public operator. That could be good or bad--FEC is "skimming the cream" of profitable service and skipping unprofitable service which will probably be provided by the public operator (although we haven't gotten to that point). It seems like most Americans are happy with this arrangement, so it's the choice we've made. Fine. But now this private property owner is threatening very costly legal entanglements to blackmail FEC into providing them what established communities cannot get.

What happens if the state gets tired of their antics and starts eminent domain proceedings on the ROW?

Deseret Ranch is 300,000 acres. That is a lot of land. The owners obviously have big development plans for the property, which could include building a high density core town or city around SR 528 and a future passenger rail station. Not unreasonable to request that the design leave room for a 4 track corridor - 2 AAF, 2 for future commuter line and a space to build a station with platforms, maybe tracks for a freight yard, etc. They are not looking to stop or stall AAF, but to increase the value of their property.

 

[Bus Nut]

Okay, never mind my last comment. It was dumb.

Penny, you're right--Lynx could run more frequently. The region seems poised to start investing more in mass transit going forward. Gas tax is not sustainable to fund transit operations going forward. I'm just addressing the myth that just because Orlando doesn't have a subway, there's no transit to speak of.

 

[jis]

The thought about subway did not occur to me. My point was and still stands is that Orlando does not have convenient usable local transit.

(null)

 

[Brian_tampa]

The thought about subway did not occur to me. My point was and still stands is that Orlando does not have convenient usable local transit.
(null)

I believe that AAF is looking more for tourist and business travel. This would imply that passengers would either be going to one of the theme parks in Orlando (Disney, Universal, or Sea World) or to a meeting at a local business or the massive convention center (also served by shuttle bus from the airport). To my knowledge all three parks have very good service to and from the Orlando airport via private shuttle bus. The business traveller will rent a car at the airport no matter if by plane or train. Now I do get the point that if you are going from Miami to Orlando for pleasure, it might be easier to drive a private vehicle. But alot of businesses will be okay with the idea of using the AAF train as a substitute for a plane (or a personal car for that matter - IRS rates are 56 cents a mile I think). Even AAF admits it will take at least 3 years (in their presentation documents) before it can establish a good baseline for passenger numbers and acceptance. Look for AAF to heavily court the international and cruise passenger trips. That is where they will make their money initially.

 

[Brian_tampa]

But this is ridiculous. Because FEC is private, not public, they can bypass the normal public process giving all of the intermediate communities no leverage to demand stops and so on which you would have with a public operator. That could be good or bad--FEC is "skimming the cream" of profitable service and skipping unprofitable service which will probably be provided by the public operator (although we haven't gotten to that point). It seems like most Americans are happy with this arrangement, so it's the choice we've made. Fine. But now this private property owner is threatening very costly legal entanglements to blackmail FEC into providing them what established communities cannot get.

What happens if the state gets tired of their antics and starts eminent domain proceedings on the ROW?

Deseret Ranch is 300,000 acres. That is a lot of land. The owners obviously have big development plans for the property, which could include building a high density core town or city around SR 528 and a future passenger rail station. Not unreasonable to request that the design leave room for a 4 track corridor - 2 AAF, 2 for future commuter line and a space to build a station with platforms, maybe tracks for a freight yard, etc. They are not looking to stop or stall AAF, but to increase the value of their property.

With the announcement yesterday that the OOCEA ROW committee approved a lease, that strongly implies that all affected parties (including Deseret Ranches) are on board with the tentative agreement. All that is left is for the OOCEA Board to approve the lease agreement. The FDOT has been working behind the scenes with AAF to make this happen. FDOT is a strong supporter of intercity passenger rail here in Florida. It is just that our govenor is bit behind the times with what the average Floridian wants (except for the rural vote in northern Florida and the panhandle!). The last hurdles to clear will be the FAA negotiations on the runway obstruction issue (AAF tracks and the height of the trains lie within the hazard area defined in FAA regulations). The GOAA (airport authority) has been working with the FAA since December to negotiate a compromise on this issue. Another issue will be the GOAA versus the airlines in landing fee increases to pay for the parking garage and other improvements associated with the new AAF station at the airport. The station will be paid for by AAF along with a new maintenance facility for AAF trains to be located on the airport property. But the GOAA can unilaterally impose a fee increase as has been done at other airports - I doubt that any airline would pull out of the Orlando market over this minor issue!

 

[Anderson]

My guess is that once the service is up and running, if a locale is willing to spring for a station, it's possible that the FEC might end up running a few trains with different stopping patterns each day. I could see one morning train, one midday train, and one afternoon train making an additional stop or two...and it seems likely that Cocoa will get a stop eventually, even if primarily as a transfer for folks going from Orlando to Jacksonville.*

*Or elsewhere along that line...not to mention if Tampa gets service...

 

[Brian_tampa]

The proposed lease agreement between AAF and the OOCEA is on the OOCEA website to review. Highlights include:

AAF tracks to be located in the northern portion of the new property (100 ft linear strip on the south side of the highway) that the OOCEA is buying from the Deseret Ranches.

No freight service to be allowed unless approved by OOCEA.

Railroad to be designed and constructed to allow for freight operations, however.

No commuter service - between two points in any county.

Tracks must be maintained to a minimum of FRA Class 6 standards.

No other intercity service will be allowed on OOCEA property.

Any additional stations added north of Palm Beach County or west of Orlando must be approved by the OOCEA (traffic diversion studies to determine impact on tolls).

The Board will meet on June 26th to approve this item on their agenda.

https://www.oocea.com/Portals/0/2013%20board%20meetings/June%2026/AAF%20Lease%20Agr.pdf

 

[Anderson]

I find myself wishing insolvency and liquidation on OOCEA.

 

[Brian_tampa]

I find myself wishing insolvency and liquidation on OOCEA.

Not sure why you feel that way? IMHO it seems that the OOCEA is working hard to support the AAF project. Of course, with all the legal mumbo jumbo in the lease, the OOCEA has to protect its own interests. But they are also protecting the interests of AAF by preventing any other operator coming in and using the ROW. Also, they are attempting to purchase a strip of land specifically to give AAF more room. From the original lease proposal that AAF submitted in December, AAF said they needed certain additional sections of land to guarantee that they could operate at maximum speed. Additionally, it is my impression that OOCEA and FDOT were instrumental in fighting off the Deseret Ranches demands for more studies and potential delays to the project.

I am not sure what to make of the section on page 4 that reads:

"It is understood and agreed that the passenger rail service may be expanded to other destinations beyond the current destinations during the Term of this Agreement and/or additional stops or depots may be added, but, prior to including any additional stops or depots between Orlando International Airport and West Palm Beach, Florida or any expansion west of Orlando International Airport, AAF shall satisfy the following conditions precedent thereto: (i) AAF shall provide the Authority with a reasonably detailed description of the proposed expansion and/or additional stops or depots together with associated internal and consultant studies and reports pertaining to ridership and diverted trips along State Road 528"

Why is there no mention made of stations added NORTH of Cocoa? Conceivably, trains would travel between Orlando and points north to Jacksonville if expansion were to go that way. Also, not many people from Tampa goto WPB or even Ft Pierce via the Beachline! Just speculation, but does this imply anything about where AAF plans to expand next? I have no knowledge of this so take it for what it is worth....

 

[Anderson]

My frustration is based around three points:
(1) The bar on commuter services (does that apply to operations further south...i.e. Banning Tri-Rail on the FEC?), which could potentially impact station location within the Orlando metro area (i.e. I-Drive/Convention Center, Disney, etc.) in the long term;

(2) The bar on freight services; and

(3) The potential for OOCEA to bar the Tampa expansion.

As to stations north of Cocoa being ignored, my suspicion is that OOCEA probably doesn't expect there to be many diverted trips on such a route, even if the traffic was coming from Orlando (that traffic would likely go to I-4, not the Beeline), with the possible exception of to/from Cocoa traffic (which would be covered under this agreement).

The other possibility is that while AAF has to tender the impact reports, it is strictly a consultative process...basically, AAF has to give them information, but may not have much power to stop certain expansions. If that paragraph is the extent of the material on the matter (which it may not be), that would be my read. "You must give me information" does not mean "I can do anything with that information

As to "protecting" AAF from competition, that's a mixed bag, since it would presumably bar Amtrak operation on that corridor (something that I could see coming to pass at some point).

 

[Brian_tampa]

My frustration is based around three points1) The bar on commuter services (does that apply to operations further south...i.e. Banning Tri-Rail on the FEC?), which could potentially impact station location within the Orlando metro area (i.e. I-Drive/Convention Center, Disney, etc.) in the long term;

(2) The bar on freight services; and

(3) The potential for OOCEA to bar the Tampa expansion.

As to stations north of Cocoa being ignored, my suspicion is that OOCEA probably doesn't expect there to be many diverted trips on such a route, even if the traffic was coming from Orlando (that traffic would likely go to I-4, not the Beeline), with the possible exception of to/from Cocoa traffic (which would be covered under this agreement).

The other possibility is that while AAF has to tender the impact reports, it is strictly a consultative process...basically, AAF has to give them information, but may not have much power to stop certain expansions. If that paragraph is the extent of the material on the matter (which it may not be), that would be my read. "You must give me information" does not mean "I can do anything with that information

As to "protecting" AAF from competition, that's a mixed bag, since it would presumably bar Amtrak operation on that corridor (something that I could see coming to pass at some point).

My thinking:
The commuter service ban applies only to that service operated over OOCEA property

"AAF shall not use the Property to provide freight transportation services or for commuter rail services (which for purposes of this Agreement shall mean passenger rail service between points within a single county)."

The word property in the quote above is legaleze referencing only OOCEA ROW. Not the whole AAF route.

I assume they don't want freight due to additional liabilities in case of accidents,etc... That one was a strange one to me as well.

As far as Tampa expansion, it appears that even if there is traffic diversion (which I really doubt will be much) then AAF can pay the difference as part of their rent agreement. See last sentence on page 4. Yes AAF has to supply the impact analysis and then OOCEA has to review and approve them. Then they come to an agreement, just like they did with this agreement. It was not said but implied that there is a rent payment from AAF to the OOCEA for this section to compensate OOCEA for lost toll revenue.

The idea of Amtrak running on new AAF tracks is interesting - highly doubtful as that would be like Walmart letting target open a grocery section inside a Walmart building! That is meant to protect AAF's investment in this route. This is a private venture and is profit motivated, unlike all other passenger rail operators in the USA presently (at least major operators, there may be small routes I am not aware of).

Edit: OOCEA ROW ends near the toll plaza at the airport. Any route west appears to use the proposed path that the aborted HSR project to Tampa was going to use. Meaning, FDOT owned land only. So any commuter stops (at disney and I-Drive for instance) would be allowed. Also, if you look at the GOAA airport board meeting presentation (an attachment in pdf) from this month, the location of the maintenance facility for AAF is to be located exactly where the aborted HSR shops would have been. So obviously, the airport is guiding the route thru to the west side on its own preferred route. AAF will have to follow that path. See page 5 "rail routes into OIA" on this link:

http://www.orlandoairports.net/meetings/public/board/20130619_Presentation.pdf

 

[Anderson]

I'm not sure there's an inherent conflict between Amtrak on the route and AAF on the route, particularly if Amtrak were to run discharge-only Orlando-Tampa, and I don't think Amtrak would run anything MIA-ORL-TPA. However, Amtrak ultimately ditching the A-Line in favor of the FEC seems viable (they'd lose Palatka, Deland, and Winter Park...but likely add St. Augustine, Daytona, and so forth). Even if they went FEC to Cocoa and Orlando, and then went back to the A-line to get the train to Miami, it would be so horridly uncompetitive in terms of time that it's not even funny (not to mention that AAF is likely to gut Amtrak ORL-MIA anyway).

Edit: Page five explains this. The commuter rail connection in conjunction with this would allow through operation there (not to mention that the addition of that connection seems to immediately expand the AAF catchment area massively). That connection could also render losing WPK in the situation above totally moot, as you'd still have a connection to there and downtown via SunRail.

 

[jis]

It is starting to sound like this will just be a glorified people mover system for airports and theme parks.

After experiencing the universal cross usability of services and many cases tickets around Berlin in Germany, this last week, I am truly distressed to learn of the direction that this passenger rail effort in FL is taking.

 

[Anderson]

Well, it's basically becoming a private-sector version of the bullet train. Mind you, the plans have a commuter rail connection between the airport and downtown going in, so it seems like that particular concern is going to be dealt with...and of course, the Miami station is downtown. To the extent that OOCEA is responsible for this project losing flexibility on several fronts, however...score yet another frak-up of passenger rail by a government agency. The one saving grace may well be SunRail connecting to this.

 

[Brian_tampa]

One thing that must be remember, as Anderson alluded to in his last post, is that this is a private sector project. From the beginning AAF never said that their plans would include operating commuter service or allowing through ticketing with other rail services - meaning Amtrak, specifically. This was due to the requirements for obtaining exemption from the STB oversight. If the STB had gotten involved, then it is highly likely several years delay would have been seen and possibly AAF would have decided the additional costs associated with more government reviews and studies would not be worth it.

AAF is strictly an inter-city passenger carrier. If local governments introduce their own services, such as TriRail seems to be planning for in south Florida, AAF says they will accommodate them.

 

[VentureForth]

I don't understand the facination of connecting airports to each other with a train. Trains should be run into city centers and then commuter trains radiate from there, connectors to airports, local busses from the commuter trains to neighborhoods, etc.

If you're gonna have to drive far to get to a train, why not drive all the way?

If you're gonna fly to Orlando to take the train to Miami, why not fly to Miami?

I doubt seriously that the majority of the ridership that they are looking into getting will be interested in going from Miami (not at an airport) to MCO! They want to go to Orlando, and if there is nothing getting them from the terminus at the airport to Sunrail or other ground transportation (who wants to spend $50 on a cab after spending $100 to get within 20 minutes of where you want to go), the service will be a BUST.

 

[Anderson]

The answer is that in Miami, there's now a metro connection to the airport. In Orlando, there's a good airport hotel (the Hyatt), lots of nearby hotels, and they're planning a commuter rail connection. Given the alternative of trying to knock a rail line into downtown, which would likely be expensive and add trip time, it makes sense if you can avoid that and use an existing transportation hub.

It also doesn't likely hurt that both Miami and Orlando are horrendously spread out, and especially in the latter case you have three disparate likely destinations for visitors (Disney, Universal, and downtown).

Edit: VentureForth, there's a planned SunRail connection to MCO in the latest round of plans, estimated for 2015. I wouldn't be surprised if AAF was helping with that somehow.

 

[chrsjrcj]

The main Orlando destinations are the theme parks. There probably will be some type of rail connection between OIA, the convention center/I-Drive, and Disney....it might be an extension of AAF, light rail, or maglev. AAF's main market demographic has always been tourist that go to Disney, and may want to travel south to Miami. The original Florida High Speed Rail project would have also been from the Orlando Airport, but would have then gone to Miami Airport(!).

I also believe AAF will have a market for local West Palm-Fort Lauderdale-Miami business travel (think Acela Express). About a one hour travel time between the three downtowns will actually be faster than driving, especially durring rush hour.