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The current train lengths being talked about are initial deployment lengths. There are options in place to add at least two more cars per consist, in addition to the food service car as far as I understand it. You have to be careful about the ridership projections. i have been trying to get info on specific ridership projections on specific deployment cycles, and have not been able to. It is one thing to say that the potential ridership is so much, and another thing to say that with this set of deployed equipment we expect to carry this much ridership. Maybe I am missing something, and need to take a closer look at the piles of documentation.
 
Well, a couple of things jump to mind here:
-3.5m riders is NOT the Miami-Orlando ridership. It is the total of the six city pairs.
-Load factors are expected to peak between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.
-Ridership splits roughly half-and-half between the "local" traffic on the southern end and traffic to/from Orlando.

With this in mind...the equipment allocations seem plausible to start with, but it seems like they're going to end up extending the sets (or at least some of the sets) sooner rather than later. The cafe situation is going to be interesting, seeing as they're apparently going with a part-cafe part-coach car AND apparently aiming to serve all BC pax a full meal; my best guess is that the BC cars will be not unlike the Acela FC cars.

FWIW, I ran load factor calculations...and on the higher cases, AAF simply isn't going to be able to make things work as-is. Either they'll be adding frequencies or they'll be lengthening trains...or both. Worth asking: If AAF wants to add another batch of frequencies, how much of this dog-and-pony show will they have to do all over again?
 
Anderson said:
Well, a couple of things jump to mind here:

-3.5m riders is NOT the Miami-Orlando ridership. It is the total of the six city pairs.

-Load factors are expected to peak between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.

-Ridership splits roughly half-and-half between the "local" traffic on the southern end and traffic to/from Orlando.

With this in mind...the equipment allocations seem plausible to start with, but it seems like they're going to end up extending the sets (or at least some of the sets) sooner rather than later. The cafe situation is going to be interesting, seeing as they're apparently going with a part-cafe part-coach car AND apparently aiming to serve all BC pax a full meal; my best guess is that the BC cars will be not unlike the Acela FC cars.

FWIW, I ran load factor calculations...and on the higher cases, AAF simply isn't going to be able to make things work as-is. Either they'll be adding frequencies or they'll be lengthening trains...or both. Worth asking: If AAF wants to add another batch of frequencies, how much of this dog-and-pony show will they have to do all over again?
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From what I recall, AAF has stated that they can increase train lengths to 9 passenger cars. Initial full build out will start off with 7 passenger cars. These train car counts include the cafe care.

Also, in the bond offering document that is available on the FDFC website, AAF states that they have the ability to order more locomotives and passenger cars if needed.

IMO, AAF will increase train length before adding trains. Their biggest issue has always been the draw bridges since the very beginning. They need USCG permits/approval for operation/changes of the bridges over navigable waterways. Everything else is inconsequential as far as delaying or stopping the project. Expect to see the NIMBYS on the Treasure Coast file lawsuits against the USCG and USACE in the near future. It is going to get ugly. But AAF should prevail as they can show their service provides a public benefit and need. And AAF has political backing as well.
 
While I don't have the technical information for as-yet unbuilt stations, I have to wonder if it would be easier to extend platforms than fight with the USCG (since the Coast Guard fights will give the NIMBYs yet another place to fight if they're adding more than just one or two rush hour trains).
 
jis said:
The current train lengths being talked about are initial deployment lengths. There are options in place to add at least two more cars per consist, in addition to the food service car as far as I understand it. You have to be careful about the ridership projections. i have been trying to get info on specific ridership projections on specific deployment cycles, and have not been able to. It is one thing to say that the potential ridership is so much, and another thing to say that with this set of deployed equipment we expect to carry this much ridership. Maybe I am missing something, and need to take a closer look at the piles of documentation.
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I guess that AAF will not be releasing all details. They are after all a private company and this sort of data is of strategic value. You don't get bus companies or airlines realeasing detailed break downs of their projected ridership and revenue for coming years either. At best you get an aggregate projection and you can speculate from there.
 
Yeah, I don't expect them to provide any further details. Which of course leaves open the opportunity to speculate away here. I was just pointing out that the EIS and similar documents do not necessarily give the details of projected traffic based on specific consist compositions. They are really sort of like an median upper bound kinda thing. Adequate equipment may be able to carry that many. How the growth of provisioning of said equipment will take place on what timeline is usually not covered, or even if covered is not very reliable They are however very important for armchair make believe rail executives :p
 
Thought I'd share this very nice Powerpoint slide set that I chanced upon. It clearly shows the location of the Intermodal Station relative to the current location of the North Terminal Future plans puts a 6 satellite South Terminals C and D with the Intermodal Station as its central anchor. Of course the North and the South terminals will be connected by a people mover system. IOW the Intermodal Station is not a random bulding in the middle of a field as it appears presently, but it is a central anchor for a huge air terminal which will possibly be larger than the current North Terminal when fully built out.

Incidentally what is shown in Slide 5 as the light blue "Future SunRail" is what I explained to folks a little while back in this thread. In some other planning diagrams that same alignment is also shown as the ROW for use as a connection to a future HSR to Tampa. It is not clear which way the proposed Monorail/Maglev will approach OIA from these diagrams, in a separate document on the OIA - I-Drive Transit Corridor, the routing is shown to be along the same ROW as the AAF from the Intermodal Terminal to 528, and then running along 528 and Sandlake Road to I-Drive.
 
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Thinking back to that, I think I mangled the approaches for Sunrail versus the I-Drive project. Then again, Orlando has had a rather stunning ability to make me dizzy with these projects (I seem to recall an abandoned "North-South Light Rail" project of some kind that was thrown in and then thrown out).

Back to the airport and AAF...I've seen the sprawling construction on the south side of the terminal/hotel (I've been in that hotel more than I care to remember...it's convenient and, at least for the moment, it's reasonably cost-effective for me to stay down in FL for a day, visit friends and one of the parks, and then do the F-word to LAX on VX versus going out of Washington). I don't recall, though...is that a fifth terminal (and AAF will be a sixth line in/out of the terminal complex) or is it the station that I'm seeing under construction? Also, it looks like the AAF line will run by the hotel...which means that (if it's on the side of the hotel I think it will be) I'll be begging a window seat at McCoy's in the future.
 
jis said:
Thought I'd share this very nice Powerpoint slide set that I chanced upon. It clearly shows the location of the Intermodal Station relative to the current location of the North Terminal Future plans puts a 6 satellite South Terminals C and D with the Intermodal Station as its central anchor. Of course the North and the South terminals will be connected by a people mover system. IOW the Intermodal Station is not a random bulding in the middle of a field as it appears presently, but it is a central anchor for a huge air terminal which will possibly be larger than the current North Terminal when fully built out.

Incidentally what shown in Slide 5 as the light blue "Future SunRail" is what I explained to folks a little while back in this thread. In some other planning diagrams that same alignment is also shown as the ROW for use as a connection to a future HSR to Tampa. It is not clear which way the proposed Monorail/Maglev will approach OIA from these diagrams, in a separate document on the OIA - I-Drive Transit Corridor, the routing is shown to be along the same ROW as the AAF from the Intermodal Terminal to 528, and then running along 528 and Sandlake Road to I-Drive.
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Thanks for that phenomenal find.

This is the first time I see a map of the proposed new terninal at Orlando and the various rail alignments around it.

the FEC approach from the north seems rather torurous to me, especially that very tight curveas it goes from heading north to heading east.

It's also interesting to see the line cut through the middle of the existing north terminal. I bet that must imply quite a bit of disruption during the construction phase. I wonder whether they considered building the FEC terminal here instead?

Also, returning to our earlier discussion about whether there would be a rail connection between the FEC side and the Sunrail side, this map does make that look extremely likely. I wonder if it would make sense to share Sunrail's tracks to the maintennace facility or build a completely separtate spur alongside?
 
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Anderson said:
Thinking back to that, I think I mangled the approaches for Sunrail versus the I-Drive project. Then again, Orlando has had a rather stunning ability to make me dizzy with these projects (I seem to recall an abandoned "North-South Light Rail" project of some kind that was thrown in and then thrown out).
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The original plan circa 2012 showed the ROW currently proposed to be used for AAF and the Monorail Maglev to be a Light Rail ROW

It also showed the ROW proposed to be used for SunRail as the ROW for the Orlando - Tampa HSR.

Back to the airport and AAF...I've seen the sprawling construction on the south side of the terminal/hotel (I've been in that hotel more than I care to remember...it's convenient and, at least for the moment, it's reasonably cost-effective for me to stay down in FL for a day, visit friends and one of the parks, and then do the F-word to LAX on VX versus going out of Washington). I don't recall, though...is that a fifth terminal (and AAF will be a sixth line in/out of the terminal complex) or is it the station that I'm seeing under construction? Also, it looks like the AAF line will run by the hotel...which means that (if it's on the side of the hotel I think it will be) I'll be begging a window seat at McCoy's in the future.
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It is the initial part of the South Terminal with 16 gates, many A380 capable. It will become the International Terminal, with Terminals A and B becoming purely domestic.

cirdan said:
Thanks for that phenomenal find.

This is the first time I see a map of the proposed new terminal at Orlando and the various rail alignments around it.

the FEC approach from the north seems rather torturous to me, especially that very tight curves it goes from heading north to heading east.

It's also interesting to see the line cut through the middle of the existing north terminal. I bet that must imply quite a bit of disruption during the construction phase. I wonder whether they considered building the FEC terminal here instead?
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It is not really through the middle of the terminal. It is to the east of the terminal main building, on the east side of the eastern approach road on what is now pretty unoccupied ground between the terminal building and the airside modules 2 and 4, basically passing under the people mover tracks, where allowance was made for the ROW when they were constructed. The expected disruption is something between none to minimal.

There isn't enough space available in that area to build a terminal. The ramp for the people mover from the North to the South Terminal was built in as a part of the North Terminal construction. You can see the unused ramp from the Hyatt Hotel, if you know where to look.

The portion of AAF within OIA property is something like 4 miles as far as I can tell. BTW, the original plan showed the light rail ROW mentioned by Anderson cutting through the parking lot that sits in the southeast quadrant of the Rt 528 - Semoran Blvd intersection. But the current plans leaves the parking lot as is and the ROW closely follows the ramp from Semoran Blvd North to Rt 528 East. That is where you see the sharp curve. Clearly a cost optimized solution which has minimal impact on total running time.

Also, returning to our earlier discussion about whether there would be a rail connection between the FEC side and the Sunrail side, this map does make that look extremely likely. I wonder if it would make sense to share Sunrail's tracks to the maintennace facility or build a completely separtate spur alongside?
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AAF will be fully built and in service before SunRail starts construction to the airport according to current timelines.

Chucktin said:
You believe that that Maglev thing will actually happen?
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Something will be built. The Maglev people claim that they will start Maglev service in late 2016 in the circulator part of it in the I-Drive/Sand Lake Road area and then extend it to the airport in the 2018 timeframe provided the Intermodal Terminal is ready by then. The type of Maglev they are proposing is not rocket science, so technically there is nothing that makes it unfeasible. They are in the process of getting permits and acquiring necessary real estate, so they do intend to build something, that is clear.

BTW, I am sorry that this has gone a bit beyond just FEC discussion, but it occurred to me that there was a lot of misunderstanding of the broader context within which AAF enters into the picture at OIA/MCO, which needed the introduction of some clarity. Hopefully the Mods will indulge us, and I thank them for such indulgence.
 
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Looks like crews were finally laying down ties and tracks for the freight bypass in WPB today. Probably be done by the end of next week? Then the heavy station work begins.
 
http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/news/local/all-aboard-florida-to-release-first-images-of-its-/npJKm/

All Aboard Florida will release the first images of its trains on Monday, as part of a marketing event the company said it will hold to “unveil” its passenger service between Miami and Orlando... All Aboard Florida plans to run 32 trains a day along the FEC tracks with stops in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Orlando. It plans to launch service between Miami and West Palm Beach in 2017. The West Palm Beach-to-Orlando span is expected to begin by the end of 2017... Work has begun at all four station sites, and construction crews are working throughout Palm Beach County to clear land along the Florida East Coast Railway corridor to make way for a second track. The new track will run parallel to the FEC line, allowing two trains to pass each other.
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The USA Today article that can be reached via the link Jis included has a number of photos and renderings of both the locomotives and cars that Siemens is building as well as the stations in Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Orlando, and West Palm Beach.
 
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