Dark days ahead for the Cardinal?

[HenryK]

The 20th Century Railroad Club issued this today:

"See Washington, D.C. in style.

"Ride with the 20th Century Railroad Club via “Private Varnish”.

"The Club last partnered with American Rail Excursions on this trip to Washington D.C. in 2013. Our partner has informed us that railroad economics have deteriorated to the point where this could be your last chance to make this trip. There has been a significant decrease in coal rail traffic as electric plants have converted to natural gas. One of the railroads affected is CSX. Amtrak’s Cardinal route east of Cincinnati runs on CSX tracks, that includes the stretch through the scenic New River Gorge. The yard at Russell KY is being closed and over 100 employees are to be laid off. The next step that may occur is that the CSX will downgrade the route to 30 mph, which would adversely impact the operation of the Cardinal. Therefore, it is possible that this tour may be your last chance to ride Private Varnish on this former Chesapeake & Ohio mainline across Kentucky, West Virginia and Virginia.

"If you are interested, you need to act fast as the trip leaves from Chicago on April 12th."

 

[jis]

Here is Philly's chance to get the Cardinal re routed via PGH!

 

[MikefromCrete]

This has been a very hot topic on Railroad.net. One poster claims information that CSX is about to impose a 30 mph speed limit on the eastern approach line to Cincinnati as part of general downgrading of fixed plant in the coal mining areas of Kentucky, Virginia and West Virginia. This, of course; would affect the Cardinal. Other posters noted that American RAil Excursions has been using this in its promotions for excursions on the Cardinal route, perhaps to goose ridership. I haven't come across any other reference to such a downgrade of track conditions, from CSX, Amtrak, NARP, or anybody else, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

I think most if not all of us agree that the Cardinal is less effective if it does not run daily. If the Cardinal can't be made daily in the next few years and the track conditions get worse and the speed limits are reduced any more than they are, I think it is better to get rid of it and use those equipment on some other route where you can actually run a daily train (Daily or Bust). To me, even if it is run daily I feel it has to serve its two largest markets that are only served by the Cardinal, IND and CIN, at better times to be worthwhile (see my Ohio thread).

I think extending the Hoosier State to CIN would be worthwhile if Iowa Pacific is interested in financing it. As for east of CIN, I would say go via Columbus and Pittsburgh but those tracks are supposedly worse. Maybe CIN-NYP via 3-C and the Empire Route or 3-C and the Pennsylvanian route is the way to keep service from CIN to the NEC if the Cardinal route deteriorates further. If what these other people are saying is true, it could be cheaper to start a new LD train than make the Cardinal daily.

 

[jis]

Believing that IP will finance a passenger service on a route where it has no freight revenue is like way beyond fantasy - it is borderline delusional

 

[Railroad Bill]

It is interesting that Oxford, Ohio is trying to get a stop there on the Cardinal to provide ridership from Miami University. Lots of time and effort wasted if any closing down of the Cardinal is in the offing. As have been mentioned many times, the chances of a 3-C route in Ohio are little and none as long as John K is governor and the legislature is controlled by the Republicans.

I tend to favor the argument that the private excursion is hyping up its ride with this unsubstantiated claim that the Cardinal is on its last legs.

But it is true that coal traffic has been cut substantially and along with NS's cutbacks in service in Ohio and parts of West Virginia, a downgrade of the Cardinal line may be in the not so distant future??

 

[FormerOBS]

Speaking of delusional, I like the idea of running through Philly and Pittsburgh over the NS line. If the train then switches over to CSX (ex B&O), it could return service to Youngstown and Akron, then go west to the C-C-C corridor. After that, I'm not familiar enough with the intact routes to know for sure. Possibilities might be Columbus-Indianapolis-Chicago, or Columbus-Indianapolis-St. Louis, or Columbus-Cincinnati-St. Louis. These would open up markets in Youngstown, Akron, and Columbus, which are not currently served. A direct routing on the old B&O all the way to Chicago would make life easier for Fort Wayne travelers and would return service to Defiance, Ohio, which was always a busy stop for college students of Defiance College in days past. It would also serve a significant Amish population around Nappanee. Wish I knew the condition of those other routes.

It would be a shame to lose the New River Gorge route, but if it happens, hopefully other options would open up.

Tom

 

[crescent-zephyr]

I think extending the Hoosier State to CIN would be worthwhile if Iowa Pacific is interested in financing it.

Well since Iowa Pacific doesn't finance the Hoosier State either, I don't see that happening. But I'm pretty certain IP would be happy to provide the equipment and OBS!

I'm positive I've heard or read someone talk about extending the Hoosier State to Cincinnati with another train set from IP. But I can't remember if it was anyone who had any good sources.

 

[Lonestar648]

Unfortunately for the Cardinal, if the track is down graded, I Can see Amtrak pulling the Viewliner sleeper off to support other single level LD trains. especially during high traffic months. The CHI/IND commitment could be continued with some of the coaches with others could be added to the STL service or on the NEC.

 

[bretton88]

As long as this doesn't happen by next week when I take it, I'll be happy.

 

[neroden]

The Pittburgh-Colombus route survives but it's already at worse than 30 mph conditions, unfortunately.

If CSX starts aggressively downgrading that part of the Cardinal route, the best chance would be for the Kentucky state government to buy it. I don't have a read on their views.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

It is interesting that Oxford, Ohio is trying to get a stop there on the Cardinal to provide ridership from Miami University. Lots of time and effort wasted if any closing down of the Cardinal is in the offing.

I think it's a waste of time and effort considering the times the train would arrive/leave Oxford (2-3am?) http://miamistudent.net/?p=17012994

If CSX starts aggressively downgrading that part of the Cardinal route, the best chance would be for the Kentucky state government to buy it. I don't have a read on their views.

Unless KY can get it cheap, they're spending a lot of money on a train that serves three small cities on the far northeastern part of the state with Maysville around 1.5 hrs from Lexington and 2.5 hrs. from Louisville at less than ideal times (late night and pre-7am). The entire state of KY had just over 10,000 passengers and that's including about 4,000 at Fulton on the CONO line (https://www.amtrak.com/pdf/factsheets/KENTUCKY15.pdf). This would be like Pennsylvania spending a lot of money to help the Lake Shore Limited.

If the tracks east of CIN are downgraded, would going south to Lexington and east to Huntington be a possibility? It would add a lot track miles to the route but if you can go way above 30 mph on those tracks it may not be much longer in time than the current route with the downgraded line and you'd add a huge college town (although during the graveyard shift if the times aren't changed). But adding even one hour to the train you're looking at around 6am to 11am west and 6pm to 11pm east. Imagine if you had to add two or more hours.

 

[trainviews]

Philly be careful what you wish for.

The obsession that you have that the Cardinal is the all important obstacle to running another direct Philadelphia-Chicago train might have been true when it was decided that the Broadway was the train to be axed. But today it's vastly outdated, at least aside from equipment, and even that is not clear as new Viewliners come online.

I think the most likely outcome if the Cardinal is going away is - that the Cardinal goes away. And that's it...

What you keep overlooking is two factors:

Amtrak has a mandate to run the current LD's for the subsidy it gets from congress. It is also under considerable pressure to lower the operational deficit as much as possible. If you look at the debate around the Sunset East (or whatever it would end up being called) Amtrak has made it perfectly clear that it is not going to start any sort of new money losing service (or even service at risk of being money losing) UNLESS SOMEBODY ELSE PAYS FOR IT. The 750 mile rule has no automatic application to any new routes, and indeed Amtrak can only under very limited circumstances start new routes on its own dime without an act of congress. (and in the case of the Sunset East, it actually could - but won't as it would be very bad politics in the current political climate)

The second factor you overlook is the steep start up costs. Even though a new Broadway Limited probably fall under the routes Amtrak could start on its own it is much more expensive than getting the cars available. The approach to Chicago is one of the most congested rail lines in the country, and sure as hell NS is not going to say "yeah sure" to another passenger train without hefty compensation for capacity upgrades. Who are going to pay for that? Indiana couldn't care less and forget Ohio under the present leadership too. Amtrak itself has a 1000 pressing needs for capital investments and will only fund very incremental projects (a share of the Raton pass, maybe the shift needed in Pittsburgh for through cars).

So getting your pet train has very little to do with the Cardinal and everything to do with congress, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Lobby them if you really want it!

 

[MikefromCrete]

Trainviews, your are telling it like it is (I guess that phrase really dates me), if the Cardinal goes away (or is replaced by two separate trains on each end), it will just go away. There will be no "replacement" train. Philly, start writing your senators and congressman if you want some action on a revived Broadway. Endless posts on a website aren't going to accomplish anything.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

Trainviews, your are telling it like it is (I guess that phrase really dates me), if the Cardinal goes away (or is replaced by two separate trains on each end), it will just go away. There will be no "replacement" train. Philly, start writing your senators and congressman if you want some action on a revived Broadway. Endless posts on a website aren't going to accomplish anything.

Neither is asking Congress. One person writing Congress isn't going to get any of them to do anything. Any email will probably wind up buried in some representative's or senator's mailbox if I'm lucky and their trash bin if I'm not. Same with any paper mail. I think the best approach would be advocacy groups. All Aboard Ohio IMO has been the loudest to restarting a Broadway Limited of anyone I know. They've also pushed for 3-C and CIN-CHI on their webpage among others. Chances are good Congress knows there is a demand for these routes and if they don't, they'd more likely listen to AAO telling them than some single guy telling them (if they listen to anyone at all). And I'm sure anyone asking Congress will get the same response: how would you like to pay for it?

I guess if we consider going through PA a rerouted Cardinal it may be easier for Amtrak to accept than a new route.

And I'm no fan of Congress. If it weren't for them (Byrd), the BL would still be running today.

 

[Alex M.]

Since they plan to extend service from Lynchburg to Roanoke, maybe reroute the Cardinal over NS through Bluefield to CIN and onto Chicago on its present route. It would be neat for its first trip between Lynchburg and Radford to have 611 pull it!

 

[jis]

Philly, if you were really serious you could try to get DVARP on board and see if they will take it up as a cause. They have considerable impact on SEPTA affairs and probably have the right contacts in the halls of power at least in Pennsylvania. Frankly I don;t see a Broadway Limited happening unless some Republicans from Ohio decide to take up its cause, or the Republicans get comprehensively ousted from their current perch in that part of the country. As long as Kasich is around - forget it.

Since they plan to extend service from Lynchburg to Roanoke, maybe reroute the Cardinal over NS through Bluefield to CIN and onto Chicago on its present route. It would be neat for its first trip between Lynchburg and Radford to have 611 pull it!

That will almost certainly make it a two night affair.

 

[City of Miami]

Not that it has anything to do with the topic at hand but #51 just went through Charlottesville with 1 bag, 2 sleepers, 1 business class coach, 1 café car and 3 coaches. I don't recall ever seeing a longer consist there.

 

[MikefromCrete]

Trainviews, your are telling it like it is (I guess that phrase really dates me), if the Cardinal goes away (or is replaced by two separate trains on each end), it will just go away. There will be no "replacement" train. Philly, start writing your senators and congressman if you want some action on a revived Broadway. Endless posts on a website aren't going to accomplish anything.

Neither is asking Congress. One person writing Congress isn't going to get any of them to do anything. Any email will probably wind up buried in some representative's or senator's mailbox if I'm lucky and their trash bin if I'm not. Same with any paper mail. I think the best approach would be advocacy groups. All Aboard Ohio IMO has been the loudest to restarting a Broadway Limited of anyone I know. They've also pushed for 3-C and CIN-CHI on their webpage among others. Chances are good Congress knows there is a demand for these routes and if they don't, they'd more likely listen to AAO telling them than some single guy telling them (if they listen to anyone at all). And I'm sure anyone asking Congress will get the same response: how would you like to pay for it?

I guess if we consider going through PA a rerouted Cardinal it may be easier for Amtrak to accept than a new route.

And I'm no fan of Congress. If it weren't for them (Byrd), the BL would still be running today.

Congress controls the purse strings. I sure that everybody here would welcome a revived Broadway, but that won't move the project one iota. Join a passenger advocacy group, like NARP, or the Delaware Valley one, or even the Ohio group. If it wasn't for the Midwest High Speed Rail Association and its lobbying efforts, there would only be two state supported roundtrips CHI-STL, instead of the four now operating. Believe me, legislators listen to their constituents. It wouldn't hurt to get rid of a bunch of those Tea Party types that don't believe in government, but your ordinary legislator usually listens very well to the voters.

 

[WabashMike]

Personally I would prefer Cardinal to terminate in St.Louis via Louisville KY. I know there's a snowball s chance in Ecuador for it happening.

I always thought it silly to have basically two Washington to Chicago trains. I like the Cardinal route better than the Capital. I much prefer Cincinnati over Cleveland.

But given the fight to save the much maligned Hoosier State, Indiana would drop the Hoosier state in a heart beat if they had to pay more in subsidies to stretch the train to Cincinnati.

But Amtrak has survived a lot longer than anyone would have even dared dream in 1970s, so we shall see

 

[trainviews]

Trainviews, your are telling it like it is (I guess that phrase really dates me), if the Cardinal goes away (or is replaced by two separate trains on each end), it will just go away. There will be no "replacement" train. Philly, start writing your senators and congressman if you want some action on a revived Broadway. Endless posts on a website aren't going to accomplish anything.

Neither is asking Congress. One person writing Congress isn't going to get any of them to do anything. Any email will probably wind up buried in some representative's or senator's mailbox if I'm lucky and their trash bin if I'm not. Same with any paper mail. I think the best approach would be advocacy groups. All Aboard Ohio IMO has been the loudest to restarting a Broadway Limited of anyone I know. They've also pushed for 3-C and CIN-CHI on their webpage among others. Chances are good Congress knows there is a demand for these routes and if they don't, they'd more likely listen to AAO telling them than some single guy telling them (if they listen to anyone at all). And I'm sure anyone asking Congress will get the same response: how would you like to pay for it?

I guess if we consider going through PA a rerouted Cardinal it may be easier for Amtrak to accept than a new route.

And I'm no fan of Congress. If it weren't for them (Byrd), the BL would still be running today.

Well, without Congress (the current one) no passenger trains would be running at all . Like them or not, they have the power.

And of course working through an advocacy group is more likely to have an impact than just writing letters on you own. Find the most efficient way.

You are also right that a ressurected BL or the like is one of the most feasible options for a new LD train. It's not an outlandish request and that should help the advocacy.

What is not helping is endlessly complaining about the Cardinal or the late sen. Byrd or that Amtrak should do this or that on this forum.

 

[WoodyinNYC]

Trainviews, you are telling it like it is (I guess that phrase really dates me), if the Cardinal goes away (or is replaced by two separate trains on each end), it will just go away. There will be no "replacement" train.

. . .

I guess if we consider going through PA a rerouted Cardinal it may be easier for Amtrak to accept than a new route.

And I'm no fan of Congress. If it weren't for them (Byrd), the BL would still be running today.

. . .
You are also right that a resurrected BL or the like is one of the most feasible options for a new LD train. It's not an outlandish request and that should help the advocacy.

What is not helping is endlessly complaining about the Cardinal or the late sen. Byrd or that Amtrak should do this or that on this forum.

Of course the Broadway Limited would be a good train to restore. It makes sense, and the notion should get support.

However, advocating the death of one train to gain another simply gains enemies, from those who like the Cardinal as is. Those would surely include CongressCritters from Virginia, West Virginia, Indiana, and maybe even from Kentucky and Ohio. Does the Broadway Limited need enemies?

The Commonwealth of Virginia seems to like the Cardinal very millions of dollars. It is spending to upgrade the Buckingham Railroad uphill from Charlottesville to near the WVa border. Virginia spends big money while you campaign to flush the train? Do you want to make Virginia an enemy of the Broadway Limited? Let it go.

Meanwhile I just have to point out that the Cardinal has a good performance -- remarkable considering that it is crippled by the 3-day-a-week service. It carries more than 100,000 riders today and would double that by going daily. The PRIIA study said it would lose a measly $2 million more a year by doing so. But that number is small -- and out of date, from 2009 -- so going daily might actually generate NO added loss. Virginia DOT might step up and promise to cover the forecast added loss from daily operations, especially if it believes there won't be any such thing.

As a general principle, we don't need to cut any Amtrak route. We need to add more routes, like the Broadway Limited, because the cure for what ails Amtrak is more Amtrak.

 

[Anderson]

I get a feeling that there's some advertising puff in here. That being said...can anybody give me a good feel for how much slowing the route down to 30 MPH on various sections would actually impact it? i.e. Are we looking at adding 30 minutes somewhere or something more drastic?

Also, and I hate to say this, but haven't we heard a similar "dying duck" routine a few times before? This feels awfully like the Devil's Lake affair...

...though to be fair, if CSX is seriously looking at downgrading track it would be interesting to see their reaction if Amtrak turned around and demanded a daily Cardinal as the price for the schedule changes attached to it (and similarly interesting to see CSX try to justify any sort of demands for improvements on the route).

 

[crescent-zephyr]

Oh yes, we've heard this before many times! Raton Pass, Michigan, etc. Obviously they all are unique situations.

 

[Lonestar648]

if CSX is going to downgrade the route, what would be the cost for Amtrak (with the states and special Fed funding) to upgrade the track and to better justify the cost, move to a daily train. Can the states raise a lot of the needed cash? Could the state's US Senators and Reps, plus the Governors put forth acceptable proposals in Congress for funding in addition to the states and Amtrak?