Fares higher 6 months out?

[SteveSFL]

I'm planning a trip that involves an AGR redemption with a paid segment from WPT-SEA. I used AmSnag to find the low price dates for that segment, and I'm seeing a dramatic price increase after Feb 17, 2016.

The sleeper upcharges for Roomette/Family BR/Bedroom go from $162/$365/$365 to $235/$913/$718 after that date. I checked some sample fares on the Zephyr and they seem to go up on that date, too, albeit not as much as the Builder.

I know we had discussed earlier that Amtrak is probably holding back low-bucket fares to try to capture extra revenue even when people book in advance. Is that what's happening here?

Interestingly enough, that date is almost right at 180 days out, so I wonder if that's the "cutoff". I guess I can check again in a couple days and see if it's changed.

 

[the_traveler]

One possible reason that I can think of is that mid February is usually when schools in the north usually have their winter vacations, so maybe more people traveling? :huh:

 

[dlagrua]

In the past, those that booked sleepers early recieved a break on the price (or the low bucket fare). Presently Amtrak is using a system where early advance ticket purchases no longer sell at the low bucket price but at a medium or high bucket price. As far as I can see, the LD fare system is set up to monitor ticket sales and adjust the prices accordingly "on the fly". If tickets sell well, prices keep escalating and if sales are slow the prices decline. I believe that a seasonal demand factor is also added to the equation, as it is on the Autotrain where the snowbird migration patterns are well understood and demand is easily predicted. .

Best way to secure the lowest price is to keep checking fares and book when you get the best buy. On our last trip Aug 2nd to Aug 12th, both the Cardinal and the California Zephyr were completely sold out. (PHL-CHI CHI-DEN and return) so you can bet that fares were kept high.

 

[Ispolkom]

The last two years I have travelled a lot on the Empire Builder between St. Paul and Minot to visit my ailing mother. On that segment roomettes always start in the second bucket and bounce down to lowest bucket at about six months. Always.

Examples:

September 6 MOT-MSP went to lowest bucket on 3/9

December 23 MSP-MOT bounced down to lowest bucket on 6/25.

 

[niemi24s]

Best way to secure the lowest price is to keep checking fares and book when you get the best buy.

But if you keeping checking in the hope fares will go down, isn't there the risk they'll stay the same or will get sold out?

Is there any risk at all in buying as early as possible (even if the fare is high) and then getting your reservation modified if the fare does go down (other than the fare for that day staying the same)?

 

[crabby_appleton1950]

... between St. Paul and Minot ...

On that segment roomettes always start in the second bucket and bounce down to lowest bucket at about six months.

Always.

Does anyone know if that is also true for the SWC as I am planning another ABQ-SAN for May 2016.

Thanks

 

[niemi24s]

The lowest roomette fares found today for the SWC from ABQ to LAX are any day during May 2016 except for 5, 8, 12, 19 and 26 through 30 May. Amsnag's not so hard to use. Practice on it some to investigate its various options: http://biketrain.net/amsnag/amSnag.php After filling in the four blanks...



...the only choice is which button to click to begin the search. The button on the right allows you to choose (filter) what route(s) you want Amsnag to display - after the search has been completed. If none are deselected, all will be displayed. Amsnag will also make a query involving two or more trains such as NYP to EMY, which just returned a total of 18 different options (including some with a bus leg) for the intrepid traveler to chose from.

 

[dlagrua]

Best way to secure the lowest price is to keep checking fares and book when you get the best buy.

But if you keeping checking in the hope fares will go down, isn't there the risk they'll stay the same or will get sold out?

Is there any risk at all in buying as early as possible (even if the fare is high) and then getting your reservation modified if the fare does go down (other than the fare for that day staying the same)?

Thats assuming that I have to take the train. I can always drive.

 

[niemi24s]

OK, allow me to rephrase the first one (the second one seems OK):

But if I keep checking in the hope fares will go down, isn't there the risk they'll stay the same or will get sold out?

 

[Ispolkom]

But if I keep checking in the hope fares will go down, isn't there the risk they'll stay the same or will get sold out?

Yes, so I buy at the higher bucket, wait till the price goes down, and reticket at the lower price, if it occurs. At best, I end up with an eVoucher, but since I know I'll be traveling by Amtrak soon enough, that's not a big deal. At worst I end up spending more than I wanted, but it's still cheaper than flying.

 

[xyzzy]

Airlines have been using this strategy for a while. If you book at the far end of the reservation window, you will see high prices. Over time, prices will tend to fall (unless there is strong demand at the high prices). The lowest point is often 3 to 6 months out. After that, prices will begin climbing again.. depending on seat fill.

 

[Gingee]

Yikes I just booked for June. Well one way was free due to my points. So I will have to watch the way that I paid for.

 

[crabby_appleton1950]

The lowest roomette fares found today for the SWC from ABQ to LAX are any day during May 2016 except for 5, 8, 12, 19 and 26 through 30 May. Amsnag's not so hard to use. Practice on it some to investigate its various options: http://biketrain.net/amsnag/amSnag.php After filling in the four blanks...

Amsnaga.jpg

...the only choice is which button to click to begin the search. The button on the right allows you to choose (filter) what route(s) you want Amsnag to display - after the search has been completed. If none are deselected, all will be displayed. Amsnag will also make a query involving two or more trains such as NYP to EMY, which just returned a total of 18 different options (including some with a bus leg) for the intrepid traveler to chose from.

Thank you for pointing out to me "The button on the right allows you to choose (filter)". I had not noticed it previously and it certainly does make the info easier for me to understand.

 

[niemi24s]

You're welcome, CA.

I didn't use it (not knowing what it did) the first few times either. If you click "Display All Results" to begin the search and there are lots of options, when the search is done you'll get all of them - whether you want them all or not. And you can't go back and filter any out. By clicking "Filter Results" you'll get to see all the options (without their fares) and can then eliminate those of no interest before seeing the fares you are interested in.

Your planned ABQ to SAN trip displays only one option so all that doesn't make any difference. But other endpoints (like NYP & EMY) have a bewildering number of options - as many as 18 depending on the search start date and length.

And don't forget to keep checking the fares - no way of knowing what they'll do as time goes on. If they go down, have the reservation modified. If they go up just keep checking - they'll probably go down again - maybe even lower than what you paid.

 

[SteveSFL]

OK, 6 months must be the magic number. When I checked the other day, the fare was higher after Feb 17th. Now it's low bucket through the 19th and then goes up a notch.

 

[crabby_appleton1950]

You're welcome, CA.

Your planned ABQ to SAN trip displays only one option so all that doesn't make any difference.

Actually without the filter I did get some results offering me an option to take a bus south and boarding a train out of Texas and onto LAX. :unsure:

 

[niemi24s]

While 6 months or 180 days may appear to be the magic number for the route you queried, there's no reason to assume fares on other routes behave likewise. F'rinstance, I just used Amsnag to query CHI to NOL for a 15 day period beginning on 10 Feb 2016.



For this route, nothing magic appears to happen at 180 days (17 Feb 2016) give or take a day or two or three or four. Note that the Bedroom charge takes a healthy one day plunge on the 18th. A splendid example of yield management! :blink:

 

[Gingee]

I think one time our fare went down. I called up and they lowered it. I think I got credit on my charge card.

 

[niemi24s]

For those who may want to use Amsnag to see if other routes exhibit a marked fare increase at about 180 days in the future, it may be wise to make queries for both route directions. For the CONO, there didn't seem to be any across-the-board fare increases at 180 or so days in either direction (going north or south). But while the EB showed a nice step in all sleeper fares when heading west, only one type of sleeper increased when heading east. The other two types of sleepers showed the normal spasmodic twitches. Anyway, failing to check in both directions or checking other routes can lead to a false conclusion.

My conclusion from this limited look is that any Amtrak fare increase at 180 days out is just like any other future Amtrak fare increase or decrease...

...totally unpredictable! :wacko:

 

[niemi24s]

I think one time our fare went down. I called up and they lowered it. I think I got credit on my charge card.

Same thing for me a few years back. Since then I've come to believe the best strategy is to check fares as soon as you know approximately when you you want to travel and then get a reservation for some suitable date with a suitably low fare. Then make periodic checks and if the fare goes down - call and have the reservation modified for the new lower fare. If it goes down again - call again. If the fare goes up just smile and keep checking - It could still go down once or twice.

 

[jimsinsky]

From my experience, there is no pattern to the hares. I have seen them change several times in a day. I've also seen different fares for the same accommodations on the same train. On the Texas Eagle, if you look at sleepers on train 422, you might see a different fare than train 22.

 

[crabby_appleton1950]

On the Texas Eagle, if you look at sleepers on train 422, you might see a different fare than train 22.

I noticed that for roomettes on the 3 and the 4 (SWC). At times it's more expensive to go East than West. I'm sure there are reason of which I am unaware.

 

[SarahZ]

On the Texas Eagle, if you look at sleepers on train 422, you might see a different fare than train 22.

I noticed that for roomettes on the 3 and the 4 (SWC). At times it's more expensive to go East than West. I'm sure there are reason of which I am unaware.

Number of rooms left and/or demand, most likely. It's all about the buckets.

Unlike 22/422, 3 and 4 are completely different trains.

 

[niemi24s]

From my experience, there is no pattern to the hares. I have seen them change several times in a day. I've also seen different fares for the same accommodations on the same train. On the Texas Eagle, if you look at sleepers on train 422, you might see a different fare than train 22.

I've observed much the same as you have. And the following shows, I think, the incongruity you noted between the Texas Eagle and the Sunset Limited:



I defy anyone to explain that one by invoking buckets, yield management or any other mumbo jumbo. One explanation I can understand is a blind (and possibly rabid) monkey is picking fares for Amtrak. While I know full well that's not really how fares are set - it may as well be as far as I can see.

 

[Ryan]

I'm not sure why this needs to be explained to you over and over and over, dude.

For the purposes of selling tickets, they're two completely separate trains. Simply put, more people have bought in the 422 car than they have in the 2 car. Thus the higher price.

It's not rocket surgery. It's basic math. And it's been explained to you before. I'm not sure why you persist in being willfully ignorant.