Florida High Speed Rail

[Andrew]

Is it likely for the Tampa--Orlando high speed rail route to get restarted at some point in the future?

 

[ALC Rail Writer]

Short answer: No.

Long answer: Still no.

 

[sitzplatz17]

Agreed, it looks like it's been killed off. Practically zero chance of it coming to life again. If anything I can see FEC making a case for an extension of their mid-speed rail program onward from MCO to Tampa in a decade or so (if their current program is successful.

 

[afigg]

Is it likely for the Tampa--Orlando high speed rail route to get restarted at some point in the future?

No. Odds are that All Aboard Florida will eventually build a non-electrified 125 mph corridor on the original HSR route from the Orlando airport to Tampa, extending their Miami to Orlando line. So Florida would get a grade separated 125 mph cross state corridor that connects to the 79 to 90 mph FEC (which has numerous grade crossings) to get to Miami and Jacksonville. It would be privately owned and not an electrified 160 or 180 mph HSR line. But it would provide pretty good intercity train service and at a much lower cost to the Florida taxpayers.

However, the set of circumstances in Florida for privately operated passenger service over the FEC are unique. We are not going to see CSX, NS, BNSF start their own intercity passenger rail services.

 

[jis]

You have to understand that FEC's project is primarily a real estate project. The train is sort of an instrument of that, like it has always been with FECI.

 

[cirdan]

Is it likely for the Tampa--Orlando high speed rail route to get restarted at some point in the future?

No, I would venture to say that anything that thinks it can compete with NEC isn't going anywhere for the forseeable future.

Scenarios that might bring back HSR plans:

1) FEC either fails or abandons its project, and that causes the folks at the transportation dept to start thinking what they can do to fill the vacuum. That may possibly lead to the dust being blown off HSR plans. Especially if a more pro-rail governor is in place by then. What is the probability of such a failure? Seeing nobody has created an inter-city rail system from zero using 100% private funds and initiative within living memory, the jury is still open as to what their probability of failure is. However, you don't start spending big money like that without running the numbers very carefully. So don't count on it.

2) Alternative scenario, FEC is a success and after some years of good results, they start thinking, where can we go from here? Can we build an "FEC Plus"? One roadmap might be a stepwise improvement of speeds through new equipment and work on track and signalling and maybe electrification. But the WCML upgrade in the UK has taught us that trying to upgrade a working railroad to HSR conditions is risky and costly and its a better policy to build new HSR from scratch. I can't see a scenario where FEC would do that.

3) Alternative scenario. At some point there is a change in management at FEC. They decide to concentrate on the real estate stuff and tacitly ask the state or Amtrak if they want the passenger train operation. Then some further years down the line, when other HSR lines are up and running and doing well, agreement is reached to replace FEC by HSR.