From now until 2016

[transit54]

I'm inclined to agree -- but for those who say to skip WI, I have already made my suggestions about connecting Saint Paul with Omaha or Kansas City. Also, make the service more than one-train-per-day-each-way. Think of the population centers served along the route, not just the endpoints -- that is one way to argue for better service: point out the population served along the line.

There's absolutely no reason that we should skip WI. However, the project needs to be lead at the state, not the federal level. In order to make the application, the state needs to agree to a commitment to fund the operating costs of the service. The exceptions I would make are for situations where a small portion of a recalcitrant state lies between two otherwise desirable endpoints - such as the Downeaster through NH. But regardless of past politics, all interested applications should be considered equally.

To clarify: I think it's really MN's call regarding WI. If MN is willing to foot the bill regardless of what WI does, let them build it. Regardless of political affiliation, WI isn't going to block a project they won't have to contribute to. But fares can be adjusted accordingly to compensate somewhat, although that's less than ideal.

 

[afigg]

I wonder what if any, will be the effect of the Governor changing hands from Dem to Rep in North Carolina.

IIRC, I read that the new Governor in NC is the former mayor of Charlotte. That would suggest that he would in support of the Piedmont corridor project.

The results from the local state elections are still coming in and take a while to get summarized by the national political tracking sites, but I see NH elected a Democratic governor and both US House seats in NH went Democratic. If NH is turning more blue, it might get more involved in the New England passenger rail plans.

From a quick google search on Iowa, the Democrats are in solid control of the Iowa State Senate and picked up seats in the Iowa House, but the Republicans are expected to retain control by only a narrow margin. That could be enough to tilt the Iowa House to supporting the service extension to Iowa City.

 

[Ispolkom]

To clarify: I think it's really MN's call regarding WI. If MN is willing to foot the bill regardless of what WI does, let them build it.

Give the political realities in Minnesota, that means that it won't get built. There's no way a DFL-led legislature is going to put money into a project that can be claimed to principally benefit Wisconsin. Extending Northstar to St. Cloud, and perhaps a train to Rochester are far more likely (though still not very likely). Given Anoka County's position, and the lack of a strong patron like Oberstar, the Twin Cities-Duluth train also seems like a stillborn project to me.

I wish the DFL were as prorail as the Republicans are anti, but I just don't see it. In the recent campaign that saw the DFL win control of the state house, I don't remember hearing anything about rail, except for some Republican claims that the Green Line light rail was a boondoggle. I certainly can't identify any strong advocate for passenger rail among DFL legislators.

 

[jis]

I wonder what if any, will be the effect of the Governor changing hands from Dem to Rep in North Carolina.

IIRC, I read that the new Governor in NC is the former mayor of Charlotte. That would suggest that he would in support of the Piedmont corridor project.

That is good to know. Of course there is also good news about Orange County in NC too.

 

[trainviews]

Well with the election over we know this much:

The administration will not push actively for an elimination of Amtrak, and probably not for large cuts either. The Senate is not likely to do so either. The House majority is likely to keep pushing for elimination/privatisation/deep cuts to Amtrak. So this is pretty much status quo.

On the other hand the administration will have very few money for new initiatives. Even if it could find the money it is unknown how much political capital it would be willing to spend on trains after the HSR initiative has fizzled out. Whatever comes out of the Senate is wholly unpredictable.

The wild card is the whole financial cliff situation. Honestly it is totally uforseeable which conseqeunces a compromise would have on a minor area like Amtrak, if any can be reached. And the concequences of the automatic cuts if not, are equally unforseeable. Again the key is how much political capital the Obama administration and Amtrak's supporters in the Senate will want to spend protecting passenger rail. It might be sacrificed for higher priorities.

But ironically the ideological war against Amtrak from some republicans might also save it. With it Amtrak has become a pretty visible nugget, that the Democrats could take the honor for saving without really spending much money in a situation full of large and painful cuts...

So what will happen? - the process is far too random and chaotic too predict the outcome. But to say that Amtrak is saved by the election is premature, even if the current administration and senate majority has no intention of getting rid of it.

 

[Eric S]

I wonder what if any, will be the effect of the Governor changing hands from Dem to Rep in North Carolina.

IIRC, I read that the new Governor in NC is the former mayor of Charlotte. That would suggest that he would in support of the Piedmont corridor project.

The results from the local state elections are still coming in and take a while to get summarized by the national political tracking sites, but I see NH elected a Democratic governor and both US House seats in NH went Democratic. If NH is turning more blue, it might get more involved in the New England passenger rail plans.

From a quick google search on Iowa, the Democrats are in solid control of the Iowa State Senate and picked up seats in the Iowa House, but the Republicans are expected to retain control by only a narrow margin. That could be enough to tilt the Iowa House to supporting the service extension to Iowa City.

Regarding NH, it will be interesting to see if the Capital Corridor proposal (Boston - Concord) goes anywhere now. And/or MBTA extensions into southern NH.

Regarding, IA, hopefully we get a positive decision there in the coming months regarding the Moline-Iowa CIty extension. Has IA Gov Branstad made any comments about this in the last few months?

 

[Anderson]

I tend to agree on needing to shift the focus from HSR to passenger rail as a general concept. The problem, of course, is that HSR is "shiny" while generic passenger rail isn't. I don't see it as "flypaper" in the way I do the Sunset East, mind you, but it is a good way to swallow large amounts of capital on relatively localized projects (i.e. those only in one state or in part of one state).

 

[Gratt]

I agree with this. HSR is not the real answer. I'd rather see those Billions of $$$$$$ put into Amtrak to improve and/or expand service. And I'm not just saying that because I live on a 150 MPH stretch! Many more people in (say) MT, NV, NM, AR or WV I think would rather have another "slow" train that have a semi short stretch of 200+ MPH in some other area of country!

Everyone would want more train service in their part of the country as aposed to somewhere else. As to what is more important HSR or slow trains, I will say that frequent, rapid, trains that shares a strech of track with a LD train helps the LD train a lot more than it does the regional service.

 

[Eric S]

With the passage of the transit tax in Orange County, NC, funding (partial? all? not sure) is now in place for a new Amtrak station in Hillsborough. Unless I'm mistaken, this would be between Durham and Burlington. Anybody more familiar with that area have any insight or comments about this proposed station?

 

[afigg]

The election result is a continuation of the status quo, so I do not expect any significant changes. Amtrak will continue to limp along with starvation appropriations, enough to keep the existing network functioning but no expansions or improvements. It will continue to be punching bag, but ultimately not killed by Congress. The 2nd Obama administration will not advocate killing it, but won't go out of its way to push for more support, either. Basically it is way on the back burner for them as it usually is for most administrations that aren't actively trying to kill it.

In other words, the situation remains as it basically always has been since, well, 1971.

The actual wild card is the requirement for full state support of trains under 750 miles per PRIIA next year. That is almost certainly going to go into effect, and will mean the death of any short/medium run trains in states that refuse to financially kick in. The Hoosier State comes to mind as one of the likely victims.

There will be changes and progress in the next 4 years. Only a piece of the $10.1 billion in HSIPR funds has been spent so far. The 160 funded projects should mostly be completed by the end of 2016.

While Obama may be dealing with a Republican House, some of the Tea party types have been defeated and it looks that the House will have a narrower Republican majority. I can see the Administration getting $500 or $800 million for TIGER and intercity passenger rail grants through the House. Not the $4 billion a year that was the goal at one time, but funding to apply to smaller improvement projects. We shall see how that plays out.

Even if the House refuses to cooperate, the Obama administration still has tools they can use and grant programs they can tap for passenger rail projects. Award FTA and FRA grants that also benefit passenger rail. Continue, under the 2008 PRIIA act, to provide direct Treasury transfer payments for early buyouts of the Warrington era equipment leases to reduce the debt burden and payments for the old equipment.

There is the big lever of the $35 billion RRIF loan program authority. I think we will see Xpress West (formerly Desert Xpress) get a $5 to $5.5 billion dollar loan for Victorville to Las Vegas. The FEC could get a loan for the Miami to Orlando project. CA HSR could tap the RRIF loan program for a few billion in low interest financing. That would be three intercity passenger rail projects building entirely new tracks on new ROWs. Would anyone 5 years have thought that was possible in the US? Once the eastern states are signed up and paying annual subsidies & capital charges for the eastern corridor services, Amtrak may able to draw on that income along with the operating profit from the NEC Regionals to qualify for a RRIF loan for Amfleet replacements.

As for the state subsidy requirements, only the Hooiser State appears to be likely to be dropped. Although whether PA will pay the full amount for the current level of Keystone service and the Pennsylvanian remains to be seen. It looks as if the rest of the states will provide what they need to.

 

[afigg]

Regarding NH, it will be interesting to see if the Capital Corridor proposal (Boston - Concord) goes anywhere now. And/or MBTA extensions into southern NH.

Don't know if NH will start on passenger rail projects, but the Democrats took control of the NH House and the Republicans will have a much smaller majority in the NH State Senate. Add a Democratic Governor and there should at least be a more favorable political climate on possible MBTA extension into NH and the Boston - Concord proposal. OTOH, it's New Hampshire.

 

[Ryan]

What I predict is that Amtrak will continue to grow for the next four years, taking in larger passenger revenues AND larger subsidies.

Subsidies are going to go down when the states start kicking in more money.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

The reason Senator Hutchison is considered a friend of Amtrak and Saviour of the Eagle is that as a US Senator she helped put Money into Amtrak when Presidents of Both Parties recommended Zeroing out Amtrak's Budget!

Not this crap again. Hutchison was a US Senator from Texas staring in 1993, correct? If that's the case then apparently you're claiming Barack Obama and/or Bill Clinton recommended zeroing out Amtrak's budget during this time. So which one made this recommendation and what sort of evidence do you have to back it up?

 

[Bob Dylan]

The reason Senator Hutchison is considered a friend of Amtrak and Saviour of the Eagle is that as a US Senator she helped put Money into Amtrak when Presidents of Both Parties recommended Zeroing out Amtrak's Budget!

Not this crap again. Hutchison was a US Senator from Texas staring in 1993, correct? If that's the case then apparently you're claiming Barack Obama and/or Bill Clinton recommended zeroing out Amtrak's budget during this time. So which one made this recommendation and what sort of evidence do you have to back it up?

Bill Clinton DID recommend cuts to Amtrak as well as W Chris! And Google up the Texas Eagle info, Im not defending her whole record, just her support of Amtrak! And look what we have for a replacement!

 

[jebr]

To clarify: I think it's really MN's call regarding WI. If MN is willing to foot the bill regardless of what WI does, let them build it.

Give the political realities in Minnesota, that means that it won't get built. There's no way a DFL-led legislature is going to put money into a project that can be claimed to principally benefit Wisconsin. Extending Northstar to St. Cloud, and perhaps a train to Rochester are far more likely (though still not very likely). Given Anoka County's position, and the lack of a strong patron like Oberstar, the Twin Cities-Duluth train also seems like a stillborn project to me.

I wish the DFL were as prorail as the Republicans are anti, but I just don't see it. In the recent campaign that saw the DFL win control of the state house, I don't remember hearing anything about rail, except for some Republican claims that the Green Line light rail was a boondoggle. I certainly can't identify any strong advocate for passenger rail among DFL legislators.

I wonder, though, if they could get a few incremental steps done, especially with the 2014 bonding bill, to increase ridership. For example, if they could get the third line around Fridley, allowing more frequencies, that could help to increase ridership, making a Foley Blvd. station possible. If that station can be built, ridership could have a dramatic increase, as there's a 3,200 stall park-and-ride there that's at 90% capacity. If even a majority of those riders could become Northstar commuters, the ridership would skyrocket and perhaps gain enough ridership to be eligible for federal funding for the expansion to St. Cloud.

Increasing Northstar Link frequency to meet every train would also help.

 

[jis]

Bill Clinton DID recommend cuts to Amtrak as well as W Chris! And Google up the Texas Eagle info, Im not defending her whole record, just her support of Amtrak! And look what we have for a replacement!

So you think adjusting the budget downwards a little is the same as zeroing it out? Strange conceptualization disconnected with reality, but OK, as long as we understand what you mean.

 

[me_little_me]

The reason Senator Hutchison is considered a friend of Amtrak and Saviour of the Eagle is that as a US Senator she helped put Money into Amtrak when Presidents of Both Parties recommended Zeroing out Amtrak's Budget!

Both parties have a president? Does that mean none of my 11 votes made a difference? I hated standing in line over and over.

Dang! No wonder I failed the citizenship test!

 

[transit54]

Bill Clinton DID recommend cuts to Amtrak as well as W Chris!

Indeed. The Montrealer was lost under Clinton.

My understanding was that the Obama administration was the first since Amtrak's inception that did not attempt to cut Amtrak funding and actually worked to increase funding for rail projects. Obviously NHV-BOS electrification happened under Clinton, and I believe that PHL-HAR electrification occurred under Bush, but there's really no parallel to the amount of money that the Obama administration has invested in passenger rail.

IMHO, "Amtrak Joe" is the major reason behind this. But who really knows, I'm just pleased that passenger trains have started to get more attention and that there's exciting projects underway in many areas of the country.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Bill Clinton DID recommend cuts to Amtrak as well as W Chris!

Indeed. The Montrealer was lost under Clinton.

My understanding was that the Obama administration was the first since Amtrak's inception that did not attempt to cut Amtrak funding and actually worked to increase funding for rail projects. Obviously NHV-BOS electrification happened under Clinton, and I believe that PHL-HAR electrification occurred under Bush, but there's really no parallel to the amount of money that the Obama administration has invested in passenger rail.

IMHO, "Amtrak Joe" is the major reason behind this. But who really knows, I'm just pleased that passenger trains have started to get more attention and that there's exciting projects underway in many areas of the country.

Then it's good that Obama still is president, other issues aside. But PHL-HAR was electrified since the old days of PRR!

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Bill Clinton DID recommend cuts to Amtrak as well as W Chris! And Google up the Texas Eagle info, Im not defending her whole record, just her support of Amtrak! And look what we have for a replacement!

So you think adjusting the budget downwards a little is the same as zeroing it out?

Apparently, the only way this bogus claim works is if you pretend that pruning a branch here and there is no different than chopping the whole tree down, grinding it up, dousing it with petrol, setting fire to the chips, and salting the soil. Until there is some actual evidence that administrations from both parties have tried to zero out Amtrak's budget this disingenuous false equivalency nonsense needs to stop.

 

[transit54]

Then it's good that Obama still is president, other issues aside. But PHL-HAR was electrified since the old days of PRR!

Oh, absolutely. But wasn't there some issue that prevented Amtrak from using the infrastructure? It was too old and in disrepair or something of that nature? I recall that Amtrak did a substantial amount of work to reelectrify the route in the 2006-2007 timeframe (I could have my dates a little off).

 

[Nathanael]

I wonder what if any, will be the effect of the Governor changing hands from Dem to Rep in North Carolina.

There are some horrifying possibilities there. The NC legislature (run by Republicans) was talking about looting money from the state-owned North Carolina Railroad (which is where the Piedmont runs), and then started talking about selling it off (for less than it's worth, obviously) to privateers. Let's hope there's some sanity and civic-mindedness left in the Republicans running NC (though I don't think it's likely).

Anyway, in good news, the state-level and local-level results of the election should result in more government support for passenger rail in California, Hawaii, Washington, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, and at least parts of Virginia. And I hope for New York and Vermont as well. Bad news in Wisconsin, and Iowa still seems to be stalemated. I don't really know about several other states (Pennsylvania and New Jersey in particular).

 

[Nathanael]

IIRC, I read that the new Governor in NC is the former mayor of Charlotte. That would suggest that he would in support of the Piedmont corridor project.

I hope you're right.

The results from the local state elections are still coming in and take a while to get summarized by the national political tracking sites, but I see NH elected a Democratic governor and both US House seats in NH went Democratic. If NH is turning more blue, it might get more involved in the New England passenger rail plans.

The long-awaited Nashua/Manchester rail service might actually happen.

From a quick google search on Iowa, the Democrats are in solid control of the Iowa State Senate and picked up seats in the Iowa House, but the Republicans are expected to retain control by only a narrow margin. That could be enough to tilt the Iowa House to supporting the service extension to Iowa City.

Boy, I hope so. That would be good news.

Regarding Minnesota, the Duluth project is kind of on ice due to high expenses and low predicted ridership, and the Northstar extension is also on ice probably due to the situation with the existing line. I would expect to see rail improvements within the Twin Cities area now, however -- the Foley Blvd. station, the triple-tracking, continued extension of the light rail system, the flyovers at the junction east of St Paul Union Depot, perhaps even one of the other proposed commuter rail lines.

 

[afigg]

The Republicans will still have majority in the house and Representative Mica was re-elected. What are the chances that he remains as Chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee?

Assuming he doesn't die, resign, or get caught with an intern, 100%.

I was wondering about Chairman Mica. No, it turns out he is term limited because the House Republicans some years back put term limits on how long someone can be the ranking minority member or Chairman of a committee. Congressman Bill Shuster (R-PA) is seeking the Chairmanship of the House Transportation and Infrastructure committee according to this Progressive Railroading article. As I recall, he was a major backer of the effort to push a bill to take the NEC away from Amtrak and have private investors take it over. Which went nowhere with the Senate and the Obama Administration.

 

[MattW]

Has anyone heard who is going to replace Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood?