January Monthly Performance Report Out

[trainviews]

The January MPR is out, showing a 5 percent growth overall. So back to normal, december was a blip it seems.

The pattern of Acelas loosing business and the Regionals more than picking it up is repeating itself. So is the Surfiliner loosing passengers, but Capitol Corridor and Joaquins growing briskly so overall California ridership is slightly up. Virginia services are still the high jumpers and the Piedmonts are back on a solid growth path too.

The LD's are nealy flat, except for the TE and that is due to an accounting oddity, as some passengers are counted twice on either side of the bus bridge that has been in place on part of the route.

 

[afigg]

The January MPR is out, showing a 5 percent growth overall. So back to normal, december was a blip it seems.

The pattern of Acelas loosing business and the Regionals more than picking it up is repeating itself. So is the Surfliner loosing passengers, but Capitol Corridor and Joaquins growing briskly so overall California ridership is slightly up. Virginia services are still the high jumpers and the Piedmonts are back on a solid growth path too.

The LD's are nealy flat, except for the TE and that is due to an accounting oddity, as some passengers are counted twice on either side of the bus bridge that has been in place on part of the route.

For those interested, the January monthly report can be found here. We could start a new thread on it, but I'll leave that to someone else to decide.

The January report is quite mixed. Total ridership was up +4.8% in January 2012 compared to Jan 11, but was up +2.5% for the first four months of the fiscal year, October 11 to Jan 12.

The key concern is that total ticket revenue is up, but not meeting the budget while expenses are coming in above budget. Salaries & Wages are coming in higher than the budget, but the report comments discusses timing of tax and pension payments. Train operations are costing more, but that is partly attributed to increased host railroad payments due to improved OTP.

The Acela ridership was off -0.1% in January with a -2.6% drop-off for the first 4 months. The report notes several possible causes for the Acela drop-off, loss of business to the NE Regionals due to WiFi and the loss of Acela marketing/advertising for FY12. The sales & marketing department got a big cut in the budget, so it appears that planned Acela ads in the northeast cities were a part of those cuts. Perhaps that should be be re-thought.

Routes with solid increases in ridership: VA Regionals, Heartland Flyer, CHI-Carbondale, Adirondack, Piedmont. The Pennsylvanian was up +11.4% in January after 3 flat months; an effect from Southwest Airlines cutting Pittsburgh-Philly direct service?

The good news is the overall On-Time Performance numbers are up. Systemwide OTP for January was 85.5% compared to 76.2% in Jan 11. The Acela achieved 92.1% OTP in January, the Amtrak corridor trains as a group 90.0% (Keystone, NE Regionals, VA and Springfield service). The Southwest Chief had an official 93.5% OTP in January.

 

[Anderson]

I'll post some stuff on this later in the evening.

 

[Long Train Runnin']

I'll post some stuff on this later in the evening.

I have to say I enjoy your thoughts more then the reports most of the time.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I heard that the TE is expieriencing a huge boom. Is this true?

 

[PRR 60]

I heard that the TE is expieriencing a huge boom. Is this true?

Yes, until you realize that in January the train operated as two trains with a bus bridge, and passengers that used both train segments were counted twice. If Amtrak put a bus segment into the middle of all LD's, ridership would soar!

 

[Anderson]

I heard that the TE is expieriencing a huge boom. Is this true?

Yes, until you realize that in January the train operated as two trains with a bus bridge, and passengers that used both train segments were counted twice. If Amtrak put a bus segment into the middle of all LD's, ridership would soar!

The ridership situation there has been odd for more than just January. When did the bus bridge begin, and when did it run until?

 

[afigg]

I heard that the TE is expieriencing a huge boom. Is this true?

The Texas Eagle had a +13.7% increase in ridership for the first 3 months of the fiscal year from October to December 2011, the biggest of the LD trains. The January 2012 numbers are distorted by the track work and bustitution, which double counted passengers taking the bus, but ticket revenue was off over 13% for January reflecting the track work. But the Oct to Dec numbers show the Texas Eagle is doing well. The City of New Orleans, Crescent, and Southwest Chief show 4+% gains for the first four months of the FY.

 

[PRR 60]

I heard that the TE is expieriencing a huge boom. Is this true?

Yes, until you realize that in January the train operated as two trains with a bus bridge, and passengers that used both train segments were counted twice. If Amtrak put a bus segment into the middle of all LD's, ridership would soar!

The ridership situation there has been odd for more than just January. When did the bus bridge begin, and when did it run until?

It was scheduled to run from 1/4/12 to 2/1/12.

 

[afigg]

I heard that the TE is expieriencing a huge boom. Is this true?

Yes, until you realize that in January the train operated as two trains with a bus bridge, and passengers that used both train segments were counted twice. If Amtrak put a bus segment into the middle of all LD's, ridership would soar!

The ridership situation there has been odd for more than just January. When did the bus bridge begin, and when did it run until?

I believe the bus bridge started in January. It can be detected by the January drop in ticket revenue. In December 2011, ridership was up +8.5%, revenue up +6.9% compared to December 2010. Wonder how much of the ridership increase is for passengers going to/from the Chicago end versus the San Antonio to Dallas end of the route?

 

[gatelouse]

Curious about the Acela's loss and Regional's gain. Can one infer from the figures whether the Regional is taking passengers from Acela or competing non-rail transportation? Are the numbers for the Regional broken out by coach vs. business class?

If an Acela passenger were to switch to a Regional, I'd expect a surge in Regional BC bookings, which would raise the revenue per passenger. If a bus or car passenger were to switch to Regional, I'd expect higher ridership with stagnant revenue for what are likely to be $49 (or lower) fares in the E and F coach buckets.

 

[trainviews]

I heard that the TE is expieriencing a huge boom. Is this true?

Yes, until you realize that in January the train operated as two trains with a bus bridge, and passengers that used both train segments were counted twice. If Amtrak put a bus segment into the middle of all LD's, ridership would soar!

The ridership situation there has been odd for more than just January. When did the bus bridge begin, and when did it run until?

I believe the bus bridge started in January. It can be detected by the January drop in ticket revenue. In December 2011, ridership was up +8.5%, revenue up +6.9% compared to December 2010. Wonder how much of the ridership increase is for passengers going to/from the Chicago end versus the San Antonio to Dallas end of the route?

The following note in the MPR states that without the double counting the January ridership is down about 5100 trips or just under 25 percent compared to Jan 2011

Due to track work impacting the Texas Eagle in January, this train’s ticket revenues were -14% vs last year. However, the Texas Eagle’s ridership was +30% year-over-year due to multiple counting of riders using the bus bridge that traversed the work area. The “real” ridership loss on the Texas Eagle was about -5,100 trips.

 

[dn4192]

Is there a way/place or such that shows the average time a specific route is doing? I am watching the Cardinal route as I will be taking it come Aug and just wondered if they monitor the overall performance time for that line and what it is averaging as it appears from the limited data I have is it is running on average about 1.5-2 hours behind by the time it reaches NYC.

 

[afigg]

Is there a way/place or such that shows the average time a specific route is doing? I am watching the Cardinal route as I will be taking it come Aug and just wondered if they monitor the overall performance time for that line and what it is averaging as it appears from the limited data I have is it is running on average about 1.5-2 hours behind by the time it reaches NYC.

Amtrak only provides the end point % On-Time Performance (OTP) summary on its website for the past month and year on the Historical OTP page. The OTP threshold for LD trains is within 30 minutes of scheduled arrival at the endpoint terminal if I have the correct reference. For Cardinal #50 in February 2012, the endpoint OTP was only 50%. But that is an improvement from 40% for the previous 12 months!

If you want to see the specifics on how late the trains were to each station, you may have to check the Status Map archive page. It is not all bad, here is a good day: 50(2/14) which got into NYP only 5 minutes late. Although it was 40 minutes late leaving Manassas. I'll have to check to see how often the eastbound #50 loses time on the Buckingham Branch railroad in VA.

 

[Anderson]

January MPR Analysis

This is somewhat belated, and in some regards less detailed than some of my other analyses.

NEC

-The Acela continues to be down and the NER continues to be up. I'm open to the argument that this is mostly due to cannibalization, though I thinK Amtrak is chalking too much up to Wi-Fi and too little up to sheer price differences.

-Probably the most interesting bit is the double-digit spike in NER Coach ridership. My guess is that Amtrak is pulling folks off of intercity bus lines, not the Acela.

-On the NER, PPR was $62.47 for January (vs. $64.11 last year) and $66.44 YTD (vs. $67.28 last year). I am inclined to blame at least part of this on the substantial rise in coach traffic vs. BC. Additionally, Amtrak may be "buying" more traffic with slower price increases (probably necessary at this point).

-On the Acela, PPR was $142.88 for January (vs. $141.29 last year) and $149.29 YTD (vs. $142.40 last year).

-In general, it's looking like Amtrak's best hope here is going to be that Acela ridership stabilizes for the year (not unrealistic), pending capacity crunches on the Regionals.

Short Distance Corridors

-In general, the news here is much better than it was in December. Considering the differences between January vs. November and December, I'm going to hold off on making a call here.

-In particular, the Pacific Surfliner is a BIG hole to fill; the net loss of 20,000 riders/month is very hard to make up.

-Other than the Surfliner, though, there aren't any really bad spots. The Vermonter is in bad shape, yes, but that's down to track work problems. The Cascades had a bad month, yes, but that's because it happens to be mudslide season. The Wolverine is still struggling as well. In general, ridership looks good for the month.

-Also, PPR looks solid overall: $28.88 for Jan. (vs. $27.85 last year) and $30.75 YTD (vs. $29.04 last year). The Surfliner is driving a fair portion of this, though (Jan: $20.82 vs. $18.25; YTD: $22.09 vs. $19.20), which is a possible trouble sign.

-As usual, the Virginia routes are providing a lot of the push that is keeping things intact. For the month, the two routes offered an increase of about 7500 riders and over $400,000 in added revenue. PPR continues to look good as well, being stable for the month for the Lynchburger and slightly off for the WAS-NPN segment (potentially because of an increasing share of traffic running RVR-WAS instead of NPN-WAS).

--Of interest on the Lynchburger, per-train ridership was up by about 40 riders, to 194.7. Although this was the smallest increase of the year yet, January posted the smallest increase last year. Three of the four months have posted larger increases for FY12 than FY11, and this was coming with gas prices still being low. One wonders what will show up towards summer...the months from April-August seem like they could mostly (if not entirely) hit 300 riders/train.

--This also brings to mind a question that came up elsewhere: If this trend continues, is it possible that even with the reworked calculations that the Lynchburger will still be in the black for Virginia? Could I solicit some estimates so I could start running the math here?

-The thing that I'm watching most: Ridership to date is below the budget target but is still safely positive for the year. Revenue is substantially positive both over last year and over the budget. Does this dynamic remain in place (implying that Amtrak is extracting a bit more per passenger than expected), or do things wind up going upside down here at some point?

Long Distance Trains

-We'll start with the enigma: The Texas Eagle. It looks like January was just a bad month there because of the bus bridge situation. This is in sharp juxtaposition with the Eagle's performance through December, where ridership was just tearing up the budgeted estimates. I'm thinking that the bus bridge time is going to be something that we generally ignore unless it has longer-term implications, but it's going to blemish an otherwise impressive run for the Eagle.

-Other than that, these LD results stink for January, but they're decent YTD. Considering that, Eagle aside, the Zephyr seems to be the most problem-ridden of the trains in January, how bad were service disruptions due to snow this year? I seem to recall the winter not being so bad.

-Can anybody tell me what went wrong with the Auto Train? January was just hell on that route; while the AT had a good year through December (ridership up slightly, revenue up substantially), January saw everything crater.

-YTD, the LD trains in general are holding together...barely. I'm going to wonder what's in store for spring here, though...winter has not been kind here at all.

 

[afigg]

NEC

-The Acela continues to be down and the NER continues to be up. I'm open to the argument that this is mostly due to cannibalization, though I think Amtrak is chalking too much up to Wi-Fi and too little up to sheer price differences.

-Probably the most interesting bit is the double-digit spike in NER Coach ridership. My guess is that Amtrak is pulling folks off of intercity bus lines, not the Acela.

I doubt that the NE Regionals are pulling that many from the discount buses. The Regionals are certainly not directly competing with the Megabus/Boltbuses on price. Much of the increased ridership on the Regionals could be from those who would otherwise drive. Some of the drop-off in Acela ridership has to be going to the Regionals.

The February and March monthly report numbers will be interesting. The spike in gas prices started in February. The prices for gas just broke above $4 a gallon for regular unleaded in my area this week. That should help the Acela numbers bounce back. Along with the AutoTrain and other corridor trains.

-We'll start with the enigma: The Texas Eagle. It looks like January was just a bad month there because of the bus bridge situation. This is in sharp juxtaposition with the Eagle's performance through December, where ridership was just tearing up the budgeted estimates. I'm thinking that the bus bridge time is going to be something that we generally ignore unless it has longer-term implications, but it's going to blemish an otherwise impressive run for the Eagle.

The TE had a bus bridge, not a complete and prolonged service interruption. The January numbers will throw the year off a bit, but no reason not to expect the growth numbers to resume. The Carolinian and Palmetto numbers are going to get a big hit for March with the Monday to Thursday service interruptions.

-Other than that, these LD results stink for January, but they're decent YTD. Considering that, Eagle aside, the Zephyr seems to be the most problem-ridden of the trains in January, how bad were service disruptions due to snow this year? I seem to recall the winter not being so bad.

-Can anybody tell me what went wrong with the Auto Train? January was just hell on that route; while the AT had a good year through December (ridership up slightly, revenue up substantially), January saw everything crater.

-YTD, the LD trains in general are holding together...barely. I'm going to wonder what's in store for spring here, though...winter has not been kind here at all.

The CZ had a long service interruption last summer. See the Vermonter and Wolverine numbers for the long term effects of service interruption or in the case of the Wolverine, a long period of almost 0% OTP due to slow orders. The CZ OTP has been pretty poor since service resumed, often still getting into Chicago several hours late. The OTP may not be affecting the ridership going between CHI and California that much, but it could be cutting into the shorter range traffic such as Omaha to CHI. People in Omaha may be switching to buses or planes if the CZ is constantly late.

The AT dropoff for January is a surprise. Was there a day or 2 where it did not run? Or maybe fewer people headed to Florida with the warm winter weather in the Northeast? Or was it mostly due to price increases?

 

[Blue Marble Travel]

The increase on the Regionals can't mostly come from the Acela, that much is clear. For starters, the percentages don't line up (modest decline versus big increase). Secondly, the Acelas carry fewer than half the people the Regionals do. So a 1% decrease in Acela ridership going to the Regionals would produce an increase of less than half of one percent on the Regional side.

More likely, the figures mask several movements. Yes, the Regionals are picking up some bus riders. Anecdotally, I have two (not particularly price-sensitive) friends who have returned to the train with the appearance of Wifi. One is regretting his decision: says the Wifi is too unreliable (my own experience, as well). Maybe the improved OT performance is also making the train a more attractive option.

And the Regionals may be getting some Acela riders as OT improves and the price differential increases, with the Acela in turn taking folk from the airlines. I couldn't easily find any air traffic stats for recent months, but air traffic is globally off, and air fares continue to rise.

But much of the increase may simply be coming from the slowly-improving economy. Let's hope it continues! Note that the Keystones and the Springfield shuttles are also up, though the percentages are less impressive. Does anyone know if Keystone ridership includes NY - PHL "Clocker" riders? Seems that it must, given the figures. Well, some portion of those 100,000 riders were on the Corridor, too.

January MPR Analysis

NEC

-The Acela continues to be down and the NER continues to be up. I'm open to the argument that this is mostly due to cannibalization, though I thinK Amtrak is chalking too much up to Wi-Fi and too little up to sheer price differences.

-Probably the most interesting bit is the double-digit spike in NER Coach ridership. My guess is that Amtrak is pulling folks off of intercity bus lines, not the Acela.

-On the NER, PPR was $62.47 for January (vs. $64.11 last year) and $66.44 YTD (vs. $67.28 last year). I am inclined to blame at least part of this on the substantial rise in coach traffic vs. BC. Additionally, Amtrak may be "buying" more traffic with slower price increases (probably necessary at this point).

-On the Acela, PPR was $142.88 for January (vs. $141.29 last year) and $149.29 YTD (vs. $142.40 last year).

 

[Anderson]

I had a longer bit earlier, but my computer ate it. BMT, I think you're pretty close with the Regionals. Afigg, good call on the Zephyr's problems...a breakout on city pairs would be informative here, since a lot of the Zephyr's business is east of Denver (about 10-11% is CHI-DEN IIRC, with a fair portion being CHI-OMA/OSC as well). Impact on the EMY/SAC-Reno front would also be interesting.

Also, I found a discrepancy on the Lynchburger: Amtrak is reporting 59,866 riders to date but the VADRPT's report (which just came out) shows 57,346. Anybody want to guess at where 2,500 riders went?

 

[AlanB]

Anybody want to guess at where 2,500 riders went?

Vacation? :unsure:

 

[afigg]

Anybody want to guess at where 2,500 riders went?

Vacation? :unsure:

Got off in Orange, VA? :wacko:

The difference is rather odd. I compared the Amtrak and VA DRPT December monthly reports and they have the same exact difference of 2,520 riders. Accounting quirk?

By the way, the February monthly performance report for the Capitol Corridor has been posted. Getting ahead of the Amtrak February report, but the Capitol Corridor had another big growth month of +10.6% in February year to year. The February numbers for the San Joaquin (+14% ridership) and Surfliner (-9% ridership) were posted on trainorders.com.

 

[Anderson]

That seems to be the pattern in general: The San Joaquin and Capital Corridor ridership is booming while the Surfliner has taken a beating. If the numbers stay true to pattern, we're probably looking at large revenue increases for both of the first two (10-15%), and a marginal revenue increase for the Surfliner (in the 3-5% range).