This is an excellent post.
If there is to be a discussion on the most untapped travel markets in the US for Amtrak, one place to start should be with the top city/metro region air travel corridors. Here is a Brookings Institute list from 2009 that I found linked to on wikipedia with the
top 100 city/metro region pairs. It is not up to date - post-recession likely shuffled the order & numbers - and one should not get picky about the exact rankings. The busier corridors obviously also have a lot of connecting traffic, so it is not a clean city of origin to final destination list, but the list shows useful info to consider for a "untapped" market list for Amtrak.
The untapped markets really should be no more than 500-600 miles apart for a viable corridor service.
Agreed.
1. NYC/Newark to Miami/Fort Lauderdale: the Silvers
What's needed is some serious investment by Florida. It's clear that the public in Florida has wanted this for a very long time (if only to save themselves driving time and hassle) but the "owners" of the state are dead set against it. Incremental improvement has come from the railroads themselves. I think the inauguration of Florida's second commuter rail line (in Orlando) should also push the conversation.
Florida has a lot to gain here but keeps shooting itself in the foot.
2. LA/Long Beach to San Francisco/Oakland: There is a market for the Coast Daylight and the CA HSR.
Agreed. Will be very interested to see how Coast Daylight changes the picture. AIUT, the CD is happening.
3. Atlanta to Miami/Ft Lauderdale: big gap in the Amtrak system.
It looks like Amtrak is going forward with a new station in Atlanta which is sorely needed. Atlanta to even just Jacksonville would be a revelation in regional mobility. That could pretty much happen without GA support on the state level. Crossing fingers.
4. Chicago to NYC/Newark: LSL; Bring back the Three Rivers?
It's longer than optimal but LSL shows us that there certainly is a market. Much will depend on Amtrak getting the capital funding it needs to actually expand the fleet instead of running in place.
5. Atlanta to NYC/Newark: One often maxed out Crescent.
Atlanta station relocation will enable them to add cutoff cars. Hopefully VA and NC developments will ease pressure on this route so it can carry more Atlanta traffic, as is already happening with Lynchburg and Piedmont service.
9. LA/Long Beach to Las Vegas: X-Train and Xpress-West are looking to fill this gap.
Would be nice to see the Xpress-West get the loan package and go forward. I think you've just made the best business case possible for this--top 10 market with zero service, distance factor is just about right.
10. LA/Long Beach to Phoenix: An argument for a LA to Phoenix day train if UP were to cooperate and Arizona was interested.
UP may shake out in a few years; AZ is in the throes of an epic political struggle so wait ten years on that one.
This is a truly fascinating exercise. It also looks like Amtrak is concentrating effort where they ought to be based on the shape of the market. (Guess what wasn't on that list: not a single Gulf Coast city. Sorry guys.) A lot of small markets not on the list that have good service are, indeed, state-supported, which does seem fair when you look at it that way.
I think we as a country are starting to completely rethink the role of the national rail network and that's a good thing. Amtrak isn't going to replace coast to coast flights any time soon but certainly has a role to play in interstate travel that is much more expansive than previously envisioned.