I'm sorry, I must have been unclear. I am not in any way trying to discredit Joe, who I also have a very great respect for. He did make such a statement, directly and personally to me, however, and since I have respect for both of you with regards to this subject, I find myself confused. I personally believe there is some situation existing in some way (possibly involving miscommunication or misunderstanding on my own part) where what he said to me, and the information you are telling me, are both correct, depending on perspective, or which particular area you are examining. Or something to that effect.
Apology accepted, and Thank you.
I suspect Joe made the statement relative to the period post 2008, for which it is true. As I stated in my previous message above, there is no disagreement on that. It is easy to get the numbers quarter by quarter for more than a decade from APTA. It is just not universally true say over a decade. Frankly the disturbing data points are the last two quarters when LIRR ridership declined more than the other two. But two data points don't make a trend (one can fit any arbitrary shaped curve through two data points depending on what point one is trying to make
), and it might have more to do with the destruction of feeder bus service in LI than with latent demand. BTW, NJT is following the same well tried and tested method of self destruction.
Furthermore, I believe that the position that rail advocates should be taking is to work diligently towards fixing the fare level and structure, and develop stable source of funding so that ridership can start growing so as to reduce dependence on motor vehicles, and use projections based on such to plan infrastructure, and not throw up their hands in frustration and say, "Oh well fares are going up, ridership is going down. We should fold our tents and stop planning for significant growths in ridership". I see some of us rail advocates descending into that sort of a mindset which I find disturbing.
Don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting that we build wild castles in the air. But on the other hand we need to keep our eyes on the ball and push for growth and construction of infrastructure to support same, and make and support well considered and reasonable plans. In this context while we may quibble about some details, I think the Amtrak NEC Plan is a reasonable plan and has clearly identifiable separate projects - hundreds of them that can be funded and constructed in a staged fashion as and when the need arises.
Just imagine what would have happened if in the dog days of the 60s and 70s, SNCF in France had said well, passenger trends are down. There is no way we can fix this. So let us just keep things running as long as we can. Put a little fix here and a little fix there, and let things rot away. A consequence would have been no TGV and resurgence of passenger rail based on HSR. We don't want to get into such a hypothetical despondent state.
I am as much against wasting money as anyone is. But I would not go so far as to say that nothing other than two tunnels needs to be built to cover projected traffic growth in 20 years. The reality also is that just because Amtrak has Plan 780 does not mean that the political powers that be in New York will allow an iota of that to be built. The same block committees that George has been trying to mobilize to block the 34th St station will be happy to block any other station, and much more likely so at a shallower depth as Plan 780 as it stands today is. So one never knows what may or may not actually happen. One must remember that often the unintended consequences of what we do as an expedient to achieve an immediate goal can be highly destructive of a more global vision/goal.
The reality may very well be that even two ARC tunnels will not get built in 20 years. Who knows? It also maybe that New York city is in an inexorable decline and traffic will only shrink . But if that is the case rightfully it should be time to move somewhere else. I don't think that is the case, and overall trends do not support such a doomsday scenario, unless of course in our infinite wisdom we completely ban immigration and trade. A port city indeed has no future without immigration and trade.
OK, now I shall descend from my soapbox
Anyway, now you ought to have a much better idea of where I am coming from and how I am trying to balance reality with a vision for the future that is positive, even though the immediate situation may feel rather bad.