There were a number of interesting posts in this thread that I never did get around to responding to, but I agree that given the success of the "Lynchburger", that when they extend the service to Roanoke, the plan should be to increase service to 2 trains a day shortly afterwards. Adding the population of Roanoke and Virginia Tech to the current train stops, the demand will be there to support at least 2 trains a day. If Norfolk is going to get 3 daily trains with 2 trains running to Newport News, Roanoke should get at least 2.
Of course, Amtrak will need new single level equipment to support all these trains. Also, VA will have to get started on upgrading the track capacity and speeds in Northern VA to DC section with the Long Bridge replacement, four tracks on the Virginia side down to at least AF interlocking as part of Southeast HSR corridor and VRE upgrade projects.
Meanwhile, the FRA and US DOT put out a news release today announcing that the $44 million granted to VA has been obligated for the preliminary engineering and NEPA work for the DC to Richmond corridor. NC got $4 million signed off on to complete the PE and NEPA for the Richmond to Raleigh part of the SE HSR corridor. News release is at
http://www.fra.dot.g...A%2028-11.shtml
I have not seen any word in a while on what the status is of the $75 million awarded a year and a half ago for the 3rd track from Arkendale to Powell's creek on the RF&P. Could be waiting on an EIS to be completed. Or CSX and the FRA are still nowhere on an agreement.
The situation with CSX is a bit of a mess from what I can tell; part of the problem is that there's too much single-track territory. When I went up to DC, we got stuck in the freight yard east of Richmond due to the southbound Night Owl getting delayed. We were on the siding for about 20 minutes...basically, I think we were parked there from when they got out of RVR until they passed us. This is a problem...particularly since IIRC the plan is to route
all of these trains through RVM eventually, which would either take the RVR-RVM segment offline for freight traffic for much of the day, or require re-tracking at least some of the segment.
As to the frequency count, here's my best guess as to what happened: The "Richmond Route" in the Amtrak Virginia files was supposed to go NPN-RVR-WAS, but CSX got in the way and caused it to be cut to a stub of the planned route that runs RVR-WAS. This line isn't turning the profit that's projected to show up with an extension to NPN, but it's still taking the revenue estimates out to the woodshed (the July 2011 report just came out last week, and I think got posted on their website over the weekend...even if the Richmond route only equals its August/September 2010 revenue this year, it'll still come in about $310,000 above where it was pegged to...and while that may still require a subsidy, it does seem to be on track to making enough money to cover operations as well).
Now, whether the plan is to run that train out to Norfolk or still to run it down to Newport News, I don't know. All of the latest plans still imply a third train to Newport News, but Norfolk Southern suddenly getting interested in the train to Norfolk may have shuffled priorities. I
do know that if the whole six-trains-to-Norfolk plan comes to pass, we're going to need at
least three extra Regionals to Richmond (and probably four, accounting for the third to Newport News). But I
think that the plan is, for the moment, to get that one train extended to Norfolk and then to move the Regionals "sleeping" in Richmond to Norfolk ASAP...but that's not planned as an "immediate" thing because nobody knows when that's actually going to happen and because the negotiations with Norfolk Southern haven't hammered out time slots just yet (they haven't even finished the new tracks, so I suspect that someone considers it premature to put things into a timetable without so much as a test run with a geometry car, let alone setting lots of cash aside for it).
As to Lynchburg/Roanoke, that route cries out for three trains a day (two north and one south in the morning, and vice-versa in the afternoon/evening) to cover both the Charlottesville "commuter" market and the Lynchburg/Roanoke market. Sorry, Charlie, but you can't serve the Charlottesville-DC market
and the Roanoke market with the same timetable northbound no matter
how much you want to...the 3-4 hour lag there just makes it impossible, as well as likely forcing any Roanoke-Boston through train to some bad timing on one end or the other on sheer journey length issues (that would start seriously challenging the Palmetto for "longest trip without a dining car"; simply extending from Roanoke to C'burg might technically push the Roanoke train into the LD train list).
Actually, that raises a serious question: If a Northeast Regional keeps getting extended such that it breaks 750 miles, what
does that train's classification become? I'm asking not only because of Roanoke, but because once you start talking about extensions to Bristol and/or Knoxville, trains that cut at NYP (always the preferred northern terminus) start approaching 750 miles (do remember that the Carolinian's Charlotte-NYP routing is only 46 miles and a bad reroute off of qualifying). A related question: If a state
really wanted an LD service to be extended/expanded/improved, could they "do a deal" with Amtrak to pay for some cars to be added (i.e. adding CHI-MSP cars on the Empire Builder)? I know that's primarily relating to routes not discussed here, but I felt like asking because it starts getting relevant with some "corridors" that are being punted around by VA and TN.
Edit: Well, I think I just brainstormed how to get a through train from Roanoke/Bristol to Boston, but it ain't pretty: I think you'd seriously have to look at splitting the Twilight Shoreliner/Night Owl at WAS and running a section that way, or otherwise managing a through-ticketed cross-platform connection at WAS. The daylight scheduling is just toxic at the endpoints for such a long route (for Roanoke, you're either going have to depart by 6 AM or arrive after 8:30 PM...sorry, but such a long trip is simply better suited to overnight travel...let's not even think about the eldritch horror that a Boston-to-Bristol daylight train would be).