Viewliner II Part 2: Dining Car Production, Delivery, Speculation

[Green Maned Lion]

Im not sure what the issue is with getting that those options are not actually available?

 

[WoodyinNYC]

Im not sure what the issue is with getting that those options are not actually available?

I basically ignore the options, assuming they expired. At best the 70 cars give an idea of what Amtrak thought would be needed or could be used.

That said, I figure if Amtrak/Congress come up with the funds, then CAF would be willing to build more cars. Wouldn't much of the start-up costs, like training and retraining unskilled workers, be N/A for the additional cars. And late changes to the spec should be more subdued. etc)

A reasonable price would help both parties if Amtrak can use more sleepers etc and CAF can make a profit on each one it builds. Assume that at worst CAF makes a proper bid that has them only breaking even at the end of the additional 70-car run, but not losing more on top of the $42 million loss on the first 130 cars. (I'm not remembering for sure if the loss figure was $42 million, but any $40-something million works for this calculation.) A $42 million total loss on 130 cars comes to $323,000 per unit. A $42 million loss on a total of 200 cars comes down to $210,000 each. The larger number of cars for the same (or lower) total loss is less humiliating for CAF and its execs. (How the Hell did you lose $42 million on a lousy $298 million order for only 130 units? Tough question.)

Any order for another batch of Viewliner 2s placed around this time next year (2019) would keep CAF's plant operating another couple of years (2021 or 2022). A lot could change quickly in that time period. I'll avoid too much political prognostication, noting that this is not a political site. But personally I expect a wave election that will change everything in Congress.

Meanwhile, we have come to expect that Amtrak will soon begin to break even on its operations. A lot could change quickly in that event. An ambitious Congress might want Amtrak to start to grow: So order new single-level coaches, lounges, and probably business class cars. Start working to expand the Cardinal to 7 days a week, extend a piece of the Crescent from Birmingham to Dallas-Ft Worth, push Amtrak Virginia trains down to the New River Valley college towns and another one to Norfolk, help fund new corridor service like Baton Rouge-New Orleans-Mobile and New Orleans-Lafayette-Beaumont-Houston-San Antonio and CHI-Champaign-Carbondale-Memphis etc. Then move to change the Capitol Ltd and the City of New Orleans to single-level consists. And then order more V-2 equipment to outfit some of these trains.

 

[Green Maned Lion]

The main problem point of production (the car shells) ended long ago. They are just outfitting them again. Restarting production of car shells at this point might as well be from scratch. And I am certain CAF would want nothing to do with it unless they were being paid an absurd amount of money. And maybe not even then.

 

[StriderGDM]

What I've continued to advocate is that NYS should get in on this. Since a good majority of the LSL passes through NYS itself, they should order a "captive" (as much as practical it'll never be 100%) fleet of NYS themed diners and sleepers and outfit the LSL with them. Then turn 448/449 into a separate BOS-CHI train that stops at different stops than the LSL. You leverage the existing traffic, get more sleepers/diners AND NYS also spends its money at home on the cars.

Oh and equip ALL NYS trains that extend beyond ALB with baggage cars.

Work with Vermont on the Ethan Allen.

More jobs for NYS and better trains to boot.

 

[Trogdor]

I don't see any state buying dining and/or sleeping cars. Even Washington and California got rid of full dining car service on their respective trains (both Cascades and San Joaquin used to have dining car-type service on their trains, but now those cars are just used as lounge/table cars with regular cafe-style service).

Further, I don't see any state spending money on a long-distance train that they don't have to (i.e. Lake Shore). It's not like state budgets are flush with cash.

 

[neroden]

The main problem point of production (the car shells) ended long ago. They are just outfitting them again. Restarting production of car shells at this point might as well be from scratch. And I am certain CAF would want nothing to do with it unless they were being paid an absurd amount of money. And maybe not even then.

CAF spent a huge amount of effort recruiting and hiring stainless steel welders to build the shells -- that was the problem point. They need the same workers for their transit contracts. They will NOT want to lay them off, they might never get them back again.

 

[jis]

CAF actually has enough backlog to keep them busy for a while yet. Cranking up a body shell line should not be as expensive as some are suggesting here.

 

[OBS]

I don't see any state buying dining and/or sleeping cars. Even Washington and California got rid of full dining car service on their respective trains (both Cascades and San Joaquin used to have dining car-type service on their trains, but now those cars are just used as lounge/table cars with regular cafe-style service).

Further, I don't see any state spending money on a long-distance train that they don't have to (i.e. Lake Shore). It's not like state budgets are flush with cash.

Wellll! Long time no see.....

 

[west point]

Still have not gotten any answer on why deliveries are so slow. The question remains - why are all V-2 shells that have been shown are on shop trucks instead of operational trucks ? - needs an answer.

Does anyone know if the V-2 trucks are built by someone different than the Brightline trucks ?

 

[jis]

They are very different trucks. Brightline uses Siemens trucks, not GSIs that V2s use. AFAIK the Brightline trucks are manufactured by Siemens and there is no reason to believe that the GSI trucks for the VIIs were manufactured by Siemens.

BTW, it is not really that unusual for cars to sit on shop trucks while they are being worked on. They are usually trucked on their road trucks rather late in the preparation for delivery workflow.

As for why the delays, no one has been willing to state an exact reasons for such, so it is anyone's guess.

 

[neroden]

It's known that Columbus Castings's factory blew up, and then they shut the company down. They were supposed to manufacture the trucks originally IIRC. So I don't know who's making the trucks now, but that would certainly account for a delay.

 

[Thirdrail7]

Ms. Emma Roberts' character should arrive soon.

 

[Ryan]

Nancy Drew?

 

[west point]

So Columbus casting is shut down. Did they sell the casting blueprints and molds to any one else ? If so who ? For the successor if there is one how busy is the new builder ?

 

[Ziv]

Impressive find of a photo! So Madison and Montgomery are next up? And Jackson and Lansing should be seeing service soon or will it take a full month from acceptance from CAF to them actually serving passengers?

Seems like we skipped a few capitals but the results are worth it.

On edit: If I am reading On Track On Line properly, Amtrak received 2 VLII diners in May of last year, 2 in June, none in July, 2 in August, 1 in September, none in October, 2 in November, 2 in December and may receive 2 in January. Call me too optimistic, but it seems like CAF may have gotten into a productive routine. 6 diners in 3 months isn't bad.

Ms. Emma Roberts' character should arrive soon.

 

[jis]

So Columbus casting is shut down. Did they sell the casting blueprints and molds to any one else ? If so who ? For the successor if there is one how busy is the new builder ?

SEPTA managed to get the parts delivered by some other outfit to work around cracking problems in Columbia Casting's castings. Frankly, the GSI trucks and their parts are not rocket science, nor under any sort of IP protection. They have been around for ever, and any casting shop worth its salt should be able to handle it.

 

[neroden]

Ms. Emma Roberts' character should arrive soon.

I have to admit, I ran through her entire IMDB page, and I didn't find a single character whose name resembled a city. Or, for that matter, a river (living in hope of more sleepers here)....

... I guess I missed her *third* character in American Horror Story?

 

[cpotisch]

Impressive find of a photo! So Madison and Montgomery are next up? And Jackson and Lansing should be seeing service soon or will it take a full month from acceptance from CAF to them actually serving passengers?

Seems like we skipped a few capitals but the results are worth it.

On edit: If I am reading On Track On Line properly, Amtrak received 2 VLII diners in May of last year, 2 in June, none in July, 2 in August, 1 in September, none in October, 2 in November, 2 in December and may receive 2 in January. Call me too optimistic, but it seems like CAF may have gotten into a productive routine. 6 diners in 3 months isn't bad.

Ms. Emma Roberts' character should arrive soon.

How do you guys decode this stuff?

 

[Ziv]

A whole lot of Google, C.

That and the fact that the Madison and Montgomery diners are slated after the diners Jackson and Lansing that were delivered last month.

I just read a synopsis of a couple episodes of American Horror Story. Don't think I will be downloading any episodes any time soon.

Impressive find of a photo! So Madison and Montgomery are next up? And Jackson and Lansing should be seeing service soon or will it take a full month from acceptance from CAF to them actually serving passengers?

Seems like we skipped a few capitals but the results are worth it.

On edit: If I am reading On Track On Line properly, Amtrak received 2 VLII diners in May of last year, 2 in June, none in July, 2 in August, 1 in September, none in October, 2 in November, 2 in December and may receive 2 in January. Call me too optimistic, but it seems like CAF may have gotten into a productive routine. 6 diners in 3 months isn't bad.

Ms. Emma Roberts' character should arrive soon.

How do you guys decode this stuff?

 

[Ngotwalt]

If Madison and Montgomery are coming, that would be...

 

[cpotisch]

Jackson and Lansing were picked up December 11. The cars generally spend a month in Hialeah for completion, so we can expect the two cars to enter service in the next couple days. At that point there will be 13 solid cars (though I'm not gonna go another "13 is the magic number" tangent). So it is quite possible that the LSL gets its diner restored in the coming week or two.

 

[neroden]

Unfortunately I suspect 18 is the magic number. There's no way to tell given that it's up to the whims of Amtrak, but we may be waiting until early April to see the LSL dining cars back.

I'm making my next trip in the spring, so here's hoping it happens by then.

 

[Thirdrail7]

If Madison and Montgomery are coming, that would be...

CEB2D9D6-8051-49CD-BE5C-8F318A5CFE9B.jpeg

Jackson and Lansing were picked up December 11. The cars generally spend a month in Hialeah for completion, so we can expect the two cars to enter service in the next couple days. At that point there will be 13 solid cars (though I'm not gonna go another "13 is the magic number" tangent). So it is quite possible that the LSL gets its diner restored in the coming week or two.

I highly doubt that. As for Jackson...........

 

[cpotisch]

If Madison and Montgomery are coming, that would be...

CEB2D9D6-8051-49CD-BE5C-8F318A5CFE9B.jpeg

Jackson and Lansing were picked up December 11. The cars generally spend a month in Hialeah for completion, so we can expect the two cars to enter service in the next couple days. At that point there will be 13 solid cars (though I'm not gonna go another "13 is the magic number" tangent). So it is quite possible that the LSL gets its diner restored in the coming week or two.

I highly doubt that. As for Jackson...........

Yeah. I more meant as a sort of theoretically-if-everything-goes-right kind of scenario.

 

[cpotisch]

Unfortunately I suspect 18 is the magic number. There's no way to tell given that it's up to the whims of Amtrak, but we may be waiting until early April to see the LSL dining cars back.

I'm making my next trip in the spring, so here's hoping it happens by then.

Howd you get 18? Thats about a 60% margin. When Lansing is finished, there will be five spares (when only running the SM and Crescent). Requiring 18 cars would mean theres a risk of 7 Viewliner diners breaking simultaneously. I could be wrong, but that seems like overkill.