Main Hurricane Discussion Thread

[GG-1]

Aloha

It looks to me that Irene may be at Penni's back door about now I hope she and our other Amtrak Friends are safe!

 

[henryj]

This for everyone in the path. Here are some tips that you may or may not nave thought of. When hurricane Rita hit the Houston area in 2005 it didn't bother me as I am in Katy and thought I was inland far enough to not be affected. However this was right after the Katrina disaster. I had to go into Houston that evening for a family friends 90th bd. On the way in there was just a sea of cars exiting Houston. So when I returned later that evening I hopped off the freeway early and took back roads to my house. On the way I just decided to take a look at the freeway a couple of blocks away. It was a parking lot and those cars were there for two nights.

The panic was so complete that of the twenty or so houses on my street only three of us were still there to ride it out. The hurricane turned east of Houston so we hardly got any rain out of it. Yet all the stores were closed, all the eating places, even fast food, were closed. Every gas station was closed. So if you didn't have any food or water in the house or a full gas tank you could have starved anyway. 100's of miles from Houston people were getting into fights over gas as they tried to fill up. People ran out of gas just parked on the freeways. It was a nightmare and the storm did not even impact us. I needed some dog food. I had anticipated the mess and gone to the store earlier. But I forgot the dogs. So when I went back a day later it was too late. People were streaming out of the store with two and three carts of food and water. They were buying gallons of water by the case. It was a screaming mess. In case the power goes out I use kerosene lamps rather than candles as it's safer. I always keep a gallon of kerosene in the house as well as a few gallons of water.

So after that fiasco, when hurricane Ike come ashore a few years later, no one left and dozens died on the Bolivar pennisular which has no seawall. Galveston was devasted. My back yard was a mess with limbs and leaves everywhere. The pool was so full of debris it took me two days to clean it out. Katy is probably 80 miles from the Gulf, yet the wind tore through here at over 70mph. I was lucky as the power was only out for about 8 hours. My brother who lives in Houston had no power for two weeks.

The morale of the story is be prepared. The storm may fizzle out or it may be a monster. You just can't tell. Hope everyone comes through it ok.

 

[pennyk]

Aloha

I looks to me that Irene may be at Penni's back door about now I hope she and our other Amtrak Friends are safe!

Irene is pretty far off shore and I am 50 miles inland. We have had feeder bands of rain, but not much wind. We are much better off in Florida than everyone in the mid Atlantic, northeast and New England.

 

[jis]

NJTransit t&e folks are saying in the rr.net board that they have been given instructions and letters on how to inform local authorities that they are authorized to travel to work locations under emergency directives, and have been given official letters to certify such. Emergency has already been declared in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, mobilizing the National Guard and setting in place procedures for evacuations. New York City is evacuating several hospitals in low lying areas already.

NJTransit is planning to park loaded hopper car trains on all bridges close to the shore to stabilize them should a storm surge hit them. This means that it is pretty much guaranteed that service will be discontinued on NJCL starting sometime late Saturday. And of course there will be the usual removal of crossing gates making service impossible anyway. But so far no specific advisories from NJT yet.

Folks in Hoboken are being advised to evacuate. See this article to get a feel for how much of Hoboken may be under water. This would mean of course that most of Hoboken Division of NJT will be out.

Hurricane Warning is now in place along the entire length of NJ. Hurricane Watch is in effect covering New York City, all of Long Island and surrounding islands, and the Long Island Sound shore of Connecticut. It is projected that half a million or more people may land up with no power and it could take 3 to 6 days to fix.

Now they are saying that the eye will hit land somewhere in the Cape May - Atlantic City area and possibly at strength 2. An evacuation has been ordered starting this afternoon along Jersey Shore all the way from Cape May to Sandy Hook. This could involve over a million people. Toll booths are being taken off line on the Garden State Parkway to facilitate the evacuation. The eye will, according to current projection, eventually pass almost directly over Manhattan. This is serious folks!

It seems very likely that NEC will be shut down a significant part of Sunday and there is an outside chance that it may be down even a bit of late Saturday.

 

[afigg]

It seems very likely that NEC will be shut down at least for a period on Saturday.

Depending on the path, I would suspect the NEC will be shut down for the whole day on Sunday or in split halves. First, WAS to NYP, then NYP to BOS. With people canceling travel plans, even if Amtrak were to operate on Sunday, they may only need a few trains to handle the passenger traffic.

Reading posts on the railroad forums and elsewhere, my take away is a lot of people in Northeast - or those north, say of MD, do not understand what a Category 2 or 3 hurricane means. Hurricanes hitting at hurricane levels that far north is an infrequent event and those who have not been through a hurricane do not understand just how widespread the damage from downed trees, flooding, and some tornadoes getting spun off can be. The coastal and further inland regions from NC to Long Island are likely to get clobbered.

 

[GaSteve]

So far projections appear to be that Irene will be a borderline hurricane at best by the time it gets to New York, in which case it will really be more like a Noreaster.

Although similar in most ways, hurricanes pose a much greater storm surge threat than a Nor’easter. That is the main concern right now with the large-population centers near the coast. It takes a long time for that wave and surface water energy to dissipate, even if the hurricane sees a drastic reduction in wind speed. Also, the storm’s forward speed will accelerate as it moves north, which has to be added back to the overall energy of the storm.

Another point is that, unlike most Nor'easters, the leaves are on the trees and therefore the trees will probably be subject to more wind damage, likely producing more downed trees on power lines and structures.

 

[Ryan]

Agreed on all counts. In addition, the ground is already well saturated, and the high tides are the highest with the new moon this weekend. Also worth noting is that unlike the sandy soil with plants that are more suitable to life in the tropics (bend, don't break), the flora of the NE hasn't evolved to deal with these kinds of winds. This storm has the capability to do far more damage as it comes ashore in the NE than it would if it were to come ashore in the tropics.

 

[jis]

Reading posts on the railroad forums and elsewhere, my take away is a lot of people in Northeast - or those north, say of MD, do not understand what a Category 2 or 3 hurricane means. Hurricanes hitting at hurricane levels that far north is an infrequent event and those who have not been through a hurricane do not understand just how widespread the damage from downed trees, flooding, and some tornadoes getting spun off can be. The coastal and further inland regions from NC to Long Island are likely to get clobbered.

We who have lived through Gloria remember, and that was a smaller and faster mover. Thus one is a lumbering behemoth moving along relatively slowly with 12+ inches of rain forecast. The surge height also depends as much on the size of the circulation area (which is huge for this one) as the strength of the eye. Unless something really unpredictably good happens, a lot of people are in for a shock.

 

[GaSteve]

Reading posts on the railroad forums and elsewhere, my take away is a lot of people in Northeast - or those north, say of MD, do not understand what a Category 2 or 3 hurricane means. Hurricanes hitting at hurricane levels that far north is an infrequent event and those who have not been through a hurricane do not understand just how widespread the damage from downed trees, flooding, and some tornadoes getting spun off can be. The coastal and further inland regions from NC to Long Island are likely to get clobbered.

We who have lived through Gloria remember, and that was a smaller and faster mover. Thus one is a lumbering behemoth moving along relatively slowly with 12+ inches of rain forecast. The surge height also depends as much on the size of the circulation area (which is huge for this one) as the strength of the eye. Unless something really unpredictably good happens, a lot of people are in for a shock.

Anyone who doubts what a hurricane can do needs to get out their archive and go back to Katrina.

 

[Anderson]

Reading posts on the railroad forums and elsewhere, my take away is a lot of people in Northeast - or those north, say of MD, do not understand what a Category 2 or 3 hurricane means. Hurricanes hitting at hurricane levels that far north is an infrequent event and those who have not been through a hurricane do not understand just how widespread the damage from downed trees, flooding, and some tornadoes getting spun off can be. The coastal and further inland regions from NC to Long Island are likely to get clobbered.

We who have lived through Gloria remember, and that was a smaller and faster mover. Thus one is a lumbering behemoth moving along relatively slowly with 12+ inches of rain forecast. The surge height also depends as much on the size of the circulation area (which is huge for this one) as the strength of the eye. Unless something really unpredictably good happens, a lot of people are in for a shock.

Anyone who doubts what a hurricane can do needs to get out their archive and go back to Katrina.

Well, there are hurricanes and there are hurricanes. Katrina was a Category 5 monster (yes, I know it weakened a bit at landfall), while it seems that this is going to be coming in at Category 1 or 2, depending on where you are. Mind you, the surge is likely to be a bit worse because of the size of the storm...so file it as a category 2-3, maybe low-end 4 storm surge in places. It's going to be hell on the coast, but it's likely to be less of a wind event.

Other than storm surge, though, the big story is likely to be flooding from all the rain...I've seen a chart suggesting up to a foot in parts of NC, and over 6 inches in most places along the storm's track up to CT...on top of a very wet August so far. So definitely do expect all sorts of flooding to accompany this storm.

 

[the_traveler]

The storm surge will be the worst on Long Island, CT, RI and Cape Cod - there is no place for waves to go further north, due to the geography and the land turning east. But at an elevation of 67 feet (per GPS), I shouldn't be affected by the storm surge. Wind and rain - that's another story!

 

[jis]

Governor Christie just announced that all NJTransit rail service will be suspended starting noon Saturday until further notice.

 

[GaSteve]

The storm surge will be the worst on Long Island, CT, RI and Cape Cod - there is no place for waves to go further north, due to the geography and the land turning east. But at an elevation of 67 feet (per GPS), I shouldn't be affected by the storm surge. Wind and rain - that's another story!

I saw earlier that there was discussion of surge washing up the East River and possible flooding of LaGuardia.

 

[jis]

The storm surge will be the worst on Long Island, CT, RI and Cape Cod - there is no place for waves to go further north, due to the geography and the land turning east. But at an elevation of 67 feet (per GPS), I shouldn't be affected by the storm surge. Wind and rain - that's another story!

I saw earlier that there was discussion of surge washing up the East River and possible flooding of LaGuardia.

The entire area occupied by Newark Airport is also within the surge flood zone for a category 1 and 2 hurricane.

 

[NY Penn]

IIRC JFK might suffer flooding too (the runways at least).

 

[Cho Cho Charlie]

I saw a report that if the storm surge happens at high tide, there will be several feet of water on many of the streets in lower Manhattan. Though, that I assume was a worse case scenario.

"Water would be pushed into lower Manhattan, steadily rising. Seawater would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn Battery tunnels.

 

JFK airport would go under an astounding 20 feet of water. The famous Fulton Ferry boat landing in Brooklyn, a popular spot for young couples to take wedding pictures, could also end up under water. Wall Street could find itself in deep water - about 7 feet. The subway system could also be knocked out." :help:

 

[NY Penn]

Yes, that's actually a possibility, as high tide was supposed to happen at the same time as the hurricane.

I'm also guessing that because of the hurricane, guest posting will be a bit slower, as AlanB and the_traveler might both be subject to power outages.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

the_traveler is probably using this opportunity to jump on a westbound train right this minute...any excuse to take the train. :giggle:

 

[GG-1]

I'm also guessing that because of the hurricane, guest posting will be a bit slower, as AlanB and the_traveler might both be subject to power outages.

Aloha

Anthony is also in Irene's path. Tom and I are in different zones. Let's hope that there are no difficulties for them.

 

[the_traveler]

Not this time! I have a broken ankle in a cast and will ride it out at home.

And it's not just Alan and myself who will be affected. PRR60 is in NJ and Anthony is in WIL. They also will be in the midst of Irene!

 

[The Davy Crockett]

Not this time! I have a broken ankle in a cast and will ride it out at home.

And it's not just Alan and myself who will be affected. PRR60 is in NJ and Anthony is in WIL. They also will be in the midst of Irene!

Sorry to hear about the ankle :angry: Personally I was hoping you were going to hop on the penthouse suite and pick up those of us to the south that are in harm's way!

 

[NY Penn]

BREAKING NEWS!

NY Mayor Bloomberg orders a MANDATORY EVACUATION for 'Zone A' residents!

 

[GG-1]

Not this time! I have a broken ankle in a cast and will ride it out at home.

And it's not just Alan and myself who will be affected. PRR60 is in NJ and Anthony is in WIL. They also will be in the midst of Irene!

Sorry, I forgot PRR60 is also a target in Jersey.

Aloha

 

[Train2104]

Apparently:

• NYC Subway, New Jersey Transit, LIRR, Metro-North will SHUT DOWN at noon tomorrow.
• Amtrak will SHUT DOWN and DE-ENERGIZE the Northeast Corridor and Keystone at 5 PM tomorrow.
• SEPTA will close lines that operate on Amtrak when catenary is de-energized, the rest of the system will SHUT DOWN at 12:30 AM Sunday.

 

[afigg]

Apparently:

• NYC Subway, New Jersey Transit, LIRR, Metro-North will SHUT DOWN at noon tomorrow.
• Amtrak will SHUT DOWN and DE-ENERGIZE the Northeast Corridor and Keystone at 5 PM tomorrow.
• SEPTA will close lines that operate on Amtrak when catenary is de-energized, the rest of the system will SHUT DOWN at 12:30 AM Sunday.

Checked the MTA website, the NYC Subway will BEGIN to shut down at noon on Saturday. "The MTA will begin an incremental suspension of its subway, bus, and Long Island Rail Road, and Metro-North Railroad service beginning approximately eight hours prior to sustained 39 mph winds reaching the area. Subway and bus lines will begin shutting down after 12 noon tomorrow." Presumably means the last trains will start their run by noon so everyone better get home.

Total transit shutdown across the NYC metro region and for the entire NEC. Not something you see happen very often.

Unfortunately with the NEC shut down, Amtrak won't be able to take advantage of it and do catenary replacement and track repair. On the other hand, they may end up having to replace some of the catenary afterwards. The stimulus funded work that was done over the past several years to clear the NEC right of way of nearby trees may pay some dividends with fewer trees and branches taking out the catenary or fouling the tracks than there would have been the case 2 years ago.