$5 a Gallon Gasoline by 2012

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Good thing Amtrak doesn't need petroleum products to operate most of their network.
Huh?? Last I heard, outside the northeast corridor these trains were being moved by diesel engines. Diesel fuel is a petroleum product. There may even be some oil fired power plants feeding the juice in the catenary for all I know.

Maybe I just need to get my sarcasm detector working better.
 
While I am all for more Urban vs Suburban, transit friendly living. Its not suburbanites that will get hurt the most from high gasoline prices. It's those who live in rural areas. In places where towns and farms are many miles apart and people need to drive hours to get supplies very high gas prices will kill that way of life.

And that is something frankly I cannot support. There are other ways to supporting urbanism and transit without resorting to farm killing gas prices
Without getting too much into this, you must realize that if gas prices were voluntarily increased (i.e. a gas tax) it could be structured such that those that need to live in rural areas (such as farmers) could be exempted or refunded the tax (obviously, we wouldn't have that option if the price increased as a result of market forces, which I think is one of many compelling reasons for raising the gas tax). Farmers and those that support them aren't the problem - its the people who choose to live 50-60 miles from work and commute each day in a single passenger vehicle. In fact, if we can get the masses to conserve, we can keep prices lower for those who really have no other options.
I want to make the point that I do not want to pay $5 per gallon of gas whether it is because of market prices or by taxation. However, IMHO I think it is inevitable at some point. The best way to prepare is to slowly raise the price thru taxation (like all the other developed countires of the world have already done...and BTW way have the better passenger rail transportation systems). This allows stability of the price of fuel which makes planning possible, better MPG cars, investing in mass transit, etc.

As mentioned in the post by transit54 tax credit could be given to as needed to farmers etc. However, again IMHO this will never happen (not enough leadership in our governement) and it is already too late!
 
I want to make the point that I do not want to pay $5 per gallon of gas whether it is because of market prices or by taxation. However, IMHO I think it is inevitable at some point. The best way to prepare is to slowly raise the price thru taxation (like all the other developed countires of the world have already done...and BTW way have the better passenger rail transportation systems). This allows stability of the price of fuel which makes planning possible, better MPG cars, investing in mass transit, etc.

As mentioned in the post by transit54 tax credit could be given to as needed to farmers etc. However, again IMHO this will never happen (not enough leadership in our governement) and it is already too late!
The other option is a revenue neutral tax. In that scenario, the revenues from the tax would simply be divided up equally among taxpayers and returned to them. So as long as you're not using more gas in a year than the average American, you actually wouldn't be paying additional prices at all, since you would be refunded the tax you paid. However, it creates an obvious incentive to conserve. And keep in mind that a gas tax lowers the actual price of fuel by reducing demand - several studies have been done that show that adding $1 to the cost of gas only increases out of pocket costs by about .70-.80.

My desire for an increased tax is probably more about concerns about our infrastructure...the federal highway trust fund is bankrupt and I think keeping our national infrastructure in decent shape is a tremendous priority. Those funds need to come from somewhere and short of nationwide electronic tolling, a gas tax is probably the best solution.

The reality is that in my lifetime, I'll be seeing $5 a gallon gas and likely higher. Exactly when, who knows, but I'd like to have viable alternatives available to me long before that point.
 
Unless you live in NY, LA, Chicago, DC, Boston, Philly, or maybe Seattle, Baltimore and Wilmington metro you have to take a car to the Amtrak station.
St. Louis has arguably a better connection than several of the above. Portland and Miami not bad either. Champaign, Illinois outstanding for bus connections. And so on. Before you generalize, investigate.
 
When I was a kid, gas was normally around 29.9 cents per gallon. But, then $500 per month was considered a good income at that time.
That's inflation. 30 cents multiples ten-fold, to three dollars. $500 quadruples, to $2000.

Price goes up by ten, wage by four.
 
I don't think it matters.People will gripe and complain,but they will still drive and fly.
 
I don't think it matters.People will gripe and complain,but they will still drive and fly.
Exactly. I don't think rising to $5.00 a gallon will have much impact at all on vehicle use. It would have to go much higher than that, before any serious curtailment would occur.

Yes, Amtrak enjoyed a spike in ridership during the 1973 oil embargo, but that was related more to shortages than to cost of gasolene.
 
Good thing Amtrak doesn't need petroleum products to operate most of their network.
Huh?? Last I heard, outside the northeast corridor these trains were being moved by diesel engines. Diesel fuel is a petroleum product. There may even be some oil fired power plants feeding the juice in the catenary for all I know.

Maybe I just need to get my sarcasm detector working better.
Yeah, where's Ross Rowland and his 'ACE 3000' steam locomotive when we need him? :help: :lol:
 
I don't think it matters.People will gripe and complain,but they will still drive and fly.
Exactly. I don't think rising to $5.00 a gallon will have much impact at all on vehicle use. It would have to go much higher than that, before any serious curtailment would occur.

Yes, Amtrak enjoyed a spike in ridership during the 1973 oil embargo, but that was related more to shortages than to cost of gasolene.
IMHO I think when it takes $100 to fill up your gas tank it will make an impact.
 
I don't think it matters.People will gripe and complain,but they will still drive and fly.
Exactly. I don't think rising to $5.00 a gallon will have much impact at all on vehicle use. It would have to go much higher than that, before any serious curtailment would occur.

Yes, Amtrak enjoyed a spike in ridership during the 1973 oil embargo, but that was related more to shortages than to cost of gasolene.
I disagree - I don't have time to look it up now, but the stats for how many vehicle miles were travelled in the last few years showed a noticiable reduction in miles driven when gas got above $4.00.

I don't think it matters.People will gripe and complain,but they will still drive and fly.
Exactly. I don't think rising to $5.00 a gallon will have much impact at all on vehicle use. It would have to go much higher than that, before any serious curtailment would occur.

Yes, Amtrak enjoyed a spike in ridership during the 1973 oil embargo, but that was related more to shortages than to cost of gasolene.
IMHO I think when it takes $100 to fill up your gas tank it will make an impact.
Some of us are already there!!!

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I don't think it matters.People will gripe and complain,but they will still drive and fly.
Exactly. I don't think rising to $5.00 a gallon will have much impact at all on vehicle use. It would have to go much higher than that, before any serious curtailment would occur.

Yes, Amtrak enjoyed a spike in ridership during the 1973 oil embargo, but that was related more to shortages than to cost of gasolene.
I disagree - I don't have time to look it up now, but the stats for how many vehicle miles were travelled in the last few years showed a noticiable reduction in miles driven when gas got above $4.00.
Correct! :)

When gas hit $4.00 in 2008, ridership on all forms of public transit (including buses) spiked much higher. It was that spike that when coupled with the recession that made it appear that transit ridership had dropped last year. However, if one compares 2009 numbers to the 2007 numbers, ridership is actually still going up despite the recession. It was the abnormal increase in 2008 from the high gas prices that made it look like people weren't riding as much.

And miles driven on highways in 2007 were 3,032,399,000,000. In 2008 it had dropped to 2,973,509,000,000 because of the high price of gas that year. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics hasn't updated their tables to include the 2009 numbers, but I seem to recall seeing a news story that I cannot find right now that indicated that miles driven hadn't rebounded.
 
I don't think it matters.People will gripe and complain,but they will still drive and fly.
Exactly. I don't think rising to $5.00 a gallon will have much impact at all on vehicle use. It would have to go much higher than that, before any serious curtailment would occur.

Yes, Amtrak enjoyed a spike in ridership during the 1973 oil embargo, but that was related more to shortages than to cost of gasolene.
I disagree - I don't have time to look it up now, but the stats for how many vehicle miles were travelled in the last few years showed a noticiable reduction in miles driven when gas got above $4.00.
Correct! :)

When gas hit $4.00 in 2008, ridership on all forms of public transit (including buses) spiked much higher. It was that spike that when coupled with the recession that made it appear that transit ridership had dropped last year. However, if one compares 2009 numbers to the 2007 numbers, ridership is actually still going up despite the recession. It was the abnormal increase in 2008 from the high gas prices that made it look like people weren't riding as much.

And miles driven on highways in 2007 were 3,032,399,000,000. In 2008 it had dropped to 2,973,509,000,000 because of the high price of gas that year. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics hasn't updated their tables to include the 2009 numbers, but I seem to recall seeing a news story that I cannot find right now that indicated that miles driven hadn't rebounded.
Well, at least in the case of Amtrak, what's telling is the LD routes being up as much as they are compared to shorter runs. I discussed this elsewhere, but Amtrak's longer runs have made a lot of ground in the last few years.
 
How does this prediction compare to, for instance, Goldman Sach's prediction in mid 2008 that crude prices would reach $200 a barrel by the end of that year? (Hint: the price was $45 a barrel on 12/13/2008.)
I wonder how the open market price for oil actually affects the price of gas, since there are many oil sources which have their prices locked (by contracts, treaties, etc).

For example, the #1 country we import oil from, is Canada. Matter of fact, we import more from Canada than all the middle east counties put together. And Canada is locked into selling us that oil, at a fixed price, by NAFTA.
 
Gas prices will rise based on crude price for a couple reasons:

-People automatically assume that it will happen, therefore it is easy for gas stations to justify a small raise in prices. People expect it. See: self-fulfilling prophecy.

-Some companies will raise prices of gasoline based on the here and now because it will be more expensive (thus closing profit margins) in the there and then when that oil is actually done with the journey from pump to truck to tanker to port to refinery.

-Remember petrol is used for more than gas, other divisions that use crude influence price based on supply.
 
I calculated gas would have to go up to $6.50 a gallon for it to be more economical for me to take the train to work. And also be willing to stomach the extra two hours it would add to my daily commute. *sigh*

Rob
 
I calculated gas would have to go up to $6.50 a gallon for it to be more economical for me to take the train to work. And also be willing to stomach the extra two hours it would add to my daily commute. *sigh*

Rob
Time efficiency is a big issue. For example, I took the Metro and bus to a friend's house in DC today. Even accounting for missing one of the buses due to confusion, which added 30 minutes to my trip, it was a clumsy 90 minutes or so from deboarding the Amtrak to getting to their house. Driving would've been 40-55 minutes faster depending on traffic. Similarly, on the NPN-WAS run, the train takes an extra 45 minutes to an hour depending on traffic. The simple fact is that public transportation ends up being far less efficient in terms of time spent en route outside of rush hour, notwithstanding cost issues...and the public transportation issues in DC are in a relatively good transport system. In Southern VA, public transport is simply a joke.
 
Any city smaller than 2 million metro is going to have that problem. Too many people for the roads, not enough tax dollars to support better infrastructure.

Biking remains an option :p
 
Any city smaller than 2 million metro is going to have that problem. Too many people for the roads, not enough tax dollars to support better infrastructure.

Biking remains an option :p
Hampton Roads has an additional problem: We've got enough train tracks used irregularly sitting around that you could build a train system off of it...but for one little problem called the James River, which it takes over $1 billion to stick two lanes across these days. A rail link would be similarly expensive.
 
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