Amtrak CA drops again in August

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Paulus

Conductor
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From CCJPA

Capitol Corridor August 2012

- Ridership: 146,232 riders; -5% vs. August 2011; +3 vs. prior YTD

- Revenue: $2,371,167; +3% vs. August 2011; 9% vs. prior YTD

- On-Time Performance: 92%, YTD OTP of 94%

- System Operating Ratio: 50% Fiscal YTD, 51% Calendar YTD

Pacific Surfliners August 2012:

- Ridership: 263,264 passengers; -5% vs. August 2011, and -6% below prior YTD - Ticket Revenue: -4% vs. August 2011 and +6% vs. prior YTD

- On-time performance for August 2012: 67% (YTD FY 2012 on-time performance: 75%)

San Joaquin August 2012:

- Ridership: 102,385 passengers +4% vs. August 2011, and +7% vs. prior YTD - Ticket Revenue only: +5% vs. August 2011, and +9% vs. prior YTD

- On-time performance for August 2012: 84% (YTD FY 2012 on-time performance: 88%)
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The September LOSSAN board meeting was cancelled, so no agenda for me to peruse and find Metrolink/Coaster stats and why the Surfliner's OTP was so bad. It's an improvement from July which was 58.3%, but that was due to track work by BNSF between LA and Fullerton (requested by Metrolink and Amtrak). This is the second straight month of revenue decline for the Surfliner and with only one exception, March I believe, the Surfliner has had a ridership drop every month since October.
 
At the time Amtrak California discontinued their off-peak fares, both Spokker and I commented here that the new fares are just not worth it. Since then, I've been shifting my travel to Metrolink or using my motorcycle. I have to believe lots of other riders are making similar decisions.
 
Seams amtrak is trying to drive passengers away instead of attracting them? Are they trying to put themselves out of business?
 
amtrakwolverine said:
Seams amtrak is trying to drive passengers away instead of attracting them? Are they trying to put themselves out of business?
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No. Ridership and revenue are up nicely on most of the corridor services and the LD trains.

The Capitol Corridor has been up in ridership and revenue for most of the year, it is just the pass several months it has fallen off compared to the same months in 2011. The Surfliner has been down for most of the fiscal year and that appears to be due to a combination of service delays due to track work, ticket price increases, and changes in pricing. The Surfliner may be facing a couple of bumpy years for ridership growth until service reliability and trip time improves as various track and station projects are done.
 
The Surfliners are having a fit because of a lot of previously-known issues. With the Capitol Corridor, at least PPR is up sharply...the Surfliners, between higher fares, lousy OTP, etc., are just having a horrible time of it for right now.
 
Up for Metrolink/Coaster and the Starlight now. One weird thing is that a lot of Rail2Rail riders are ditching Amtrak for Metrolink; a 17% drop in Rail2Rail riders.

COASTER: +1.8%

Metrolink +2.5% (added off peak and weekend service noted to be a major contributor to gain)

Coast Starlight +9.2% but a -0.8% drop in revenue.

Most importantly I think, Amtrak saw a 13.3% increase in revenue for August.

Interestingly, LOSSAN has different claims for revenue than the CCJPA; they say that revenue ticked up 3.7% (aided by a flat 2% fare increase).
 
Per the above, Amtrak ridership for August was somewhere in the ballpark of 2768360 (an increase of about 198,000 over last year, +/- 1300) per the 7.7% increase. System-wide revenue would be $177.7 million (+/- about $1 million), an increase of over $20 million from last year. Taking the averages system-wide PPR would be $64.19 for this August versus $61.02 last year, an increase of 5.2%.

Some of this is going to be down to the fact that the Acela was slammed with the Irene disriptions last year (Acela PPR tends to run in the $150 range these days), as well as the fact that the Auto Train was also among the operations disrupted (and PPR there runs around $250). Even though taken together, the two are only 10% of Amtrak's monthly ridership, the fact that they were hit when, say, the Surfliner or Hiawatha wasn't is going to have an impact here. Likewise, the Surfliner's lower-yield ridership is also down as a share of overall ridership this year, so that's also going to play a role. I don't see a full-blown 5% increase in fares being responsible for the jump (much as I might like to), but it likely played a role alongside the distortions of the interruption.
 
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