Mr. Nerode, perchance you drive about in something like a Nissan Cube, but I guarantee you that Auto Train is the Bennie-Caddy-Lex crowd; not entirely of course, but in season when I ride, that appears to be the case.
I've actually mentioned my extremely-high-end automobile elsewhere, and I'm slightly embarrassed to say it again. If you like riddles, I can say my car is considered a "large car", and the EPA estimates fuel costs of $37 for an 810 mile trip in my car.
So anyway, I'm expecting the rise of electric and hybrid electric cars to severely cut the fuel costs for cars in the high-end and mid-range market, within a few years. I think this may not work its way down to the bottom of the market for a long time, but it should work its way down to the BMW/Caddy drivers fairly soon.
The auto transport component of my fare last month was $186. While that sum will cover gas (810mi/25mpg X $4.25ga), it won't make much of a dent towards the 'running' maintenacne of any such vehicle.
There are two types of running maintenance, economically speaking: miles-based and years-based. I've done a fair amount of research on this; although it's hard to sort things out properly, it seems that the majority of the maintenance costs on most automobiles are years-based, rather than miles-based.
For instance, all the rubber hoses and gaskets decay whether or not they're being used. Oil is supposed to be changed every 6 months even if the engine isn't used much. The years-based costs are ticking down even if the car isn't moving. Most depreciation turns out to be years-based too, as I've discovered with very-lightly-driven 10-year-old cars.
Tires are probably the largest strictly miles-based costs, followed by brake pads. So I suppose whether the Auto Train fee is larger than gas + maintenance on the drive depends largely on how expensive the automobile's tires are and how quickly it burns through tire tread.
The only scenario I can hold in which AT would be price competitive would be with a single person driving a high maintenance large older vehicle and willing to ride Coach; beyond that I wholly agree that there is a convenience rate to the fare.
Glad to have your agreement. I think driving 810 miles sounds kind of miserable, and so I expect that Amtrak will continue to be able to charge a pretty large convenience rate. But the premium charged for this service has to be commensurate with the improved circumstances. An uncrowded lounge and a comfortable, unrushed dinner will allow for much higher prices to be charged than a crowded lounge and a frustrating wait for a late dinner. Reducing service quality beyond a certain point will reduce revenues as people decide to drive their luxury cars instead of taking the train. I don't know if these cuts are hitting that point... but they could be.
The convenience factor of Auto Train even without a lounge seems better for motorcyclists (810 miles on a motorcycle is seriously hardcore), but motorcyling is a niche hobby to start with, so that's not a large market.