Brightline Trains Florida discussion 2023 Q4

[Crowbar_k]

Just got this in my email. I figured the $79 base price wasn't gonna last.

 

[crescent-zephyr]

Certainly disappointing for me. I won't pay their high fares just to look at dots the whole ride. Maybe my premium voucher I got from them pushing back Orlando service will expire before I can use it...sad...

Agreed. If I've got time I'd rather take Amtrak and if I don't have time I'll consider Red Coach. Next time I need to travel that route I'll see if I can tell which trains are wrapped but this is very disapointing.

Frankly, it's bad for the brand too. It makes the trains look tacky - like rolling billboards. Not what you expect from a "Premium" brand.

 

[daybeers]

Just got this in my email. I figured the $79 base price wasn't gonna last.

This is for MCO-MIA as well?

 

[jis]

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/bri...hem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook

 

[Crowbar_k]

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/bri...hem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook

"High Speed"

 

[jis]

"High Speed"

No matter how many times we spend energy pointing out that 125 mph is not world standard high speed, as long as FRA prefers to characterize that as high speed in some of its documents, we are stuck with it. Rightfully it should be called Higher Speed.

In this context the suburban line in Philadelphia to Norristown is still called the Norristown High Speed Line At least they have the excuse of history, but so does the FRA in some sense, since its original high speed project was the original Metroliner project with a goal to run trains at 125mph! I suppose they forgot to up the documentation from the 1960s!

 

[ManganeseFrog]

how great is the time savings achieved by the speed-up?

8 Minutes. From 3hr 38m down to 3hr 30m with Boca Raton, or from 3hr 33m to 3hr 25m without. I'm not certain but I think there is approximately 10 minutes of padding included (both before and after).

Two odd things with the schedule I didn't notice at first. On weekdays it shows 18 trains arriving into Miami but only 17 departing; and at Boca Raton, 12 trains stop southbound but only 8 trains stop northbound.

 

[Touchdowntom9]

In Fort Pierce, between Milepost 240.8 and 241.4 there are significant segments of 40mph and 50mph, and between 240 and 240.8 there is 60mph. Needless to add that around that there would be some significant length of slowing down and speeding up too. As a matter of fact to the south there is no 100mph before it gets to 243.5. north of 240.8 is 110mph, though until recently it was cleared for only 90mph.

Looking at a map, that area looks pretty darn straight in terms of ROW. What is causing such a huge speed reduction and is there a way to get rid of it? That seems like a real issue for keeping the train moving at 100mph+ across Florida.

 

[jis]

Looking at a map, that area looks pretty darn straight in terms of ROW. What is causing such a huge speed reduction and is there a way to get rid of it? That seems like a real issue for keeping the train moving at 100mph+ across Florida.

I bet it has to do with grade crossing safety or some such. Also there is a yard that it passes through around there, which may have something to do with it. Anyway, you can bet that Brightline has engineered things to be as fast as possible and it is highly unlikely that we armchair designers will make things any faster easily.

 

[Touchdowntom9]

I bet it has to do with grade crossing safety or some such. Also there is a yard that it passes through around there, which may have something to do with it.

That's ridiculous and this needs to change. I assume BL did everything possible here to achieve a high speed, but unless I am missing something, this feels like a rule from a regulator and that would be utterly ridiculous.

I bet it has to do with grade crossing safety or some such. Also there is a yard that it passes through around there, which may have something to do with it. Anyway, you can bet that Brightline has engineered things to be as fast as possible and it is highly unlikely that we armchair designers will make things any faster easily.

Also, is this info regarding speed limit data available anywhere or is it just info you happen to know? Would love to see about any other areas on the BL/FEC route that appear straight but have lower operating speeds etc.

 

[jis]

Also, is this info regarding speed limit data available anywhere or is it just info you happen to know? Would love to see about any other areas on the BL/FEC route that appear straight but have lower operating speeds etc.

It is all in the EIS they submitted to the FRA. It is available somewhere on the FRA web site where they keep all the EISs. I had downloaded the tome a while back. It is a huge PDF document with detailed configuration information for every in ch of the railroad.

That's ridiculous and this needs to change. I assume BL did everything possible here to achieve a high speed, but unless I am missing something, this feels like a rule from a regulator and that would be utterly ridiculous.

You are certainly free to believe whatever you wish Grade crossings are a huge problem which at the end of the day damages Brightline trains and disrupts service. I am sure they are probably more concerned about it than regulators at this point, having been identified as the railroad with the highest grade crossing accident rate per route mile and highest fatality rate per route mile.

 

[railiner]

Looking at a map, that area looks pretty darn straight in terms of ROW. What is causing such a huge speed reduction and is there a way to get rid of it? That seems like a real issue for keeping the train moving at 100mph+ across Florida.

Isn't that the area where they may add a station stop for Fort Pierce? Perhaps that is the speed people will be used to for trains passing thru that area...not sure...and maybe not, since probably not all trains will stop there when the station does open...

 

[Anderson]

View attachment 34857

Just got this in my email. I figured the $79 base price wasn't gonna last.

I'm showing $39 MCO-MIA on those days and a few others.

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/bri...hem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook

This also includes patching the gap at about 1:30PM the other way that existed until now. So we're at "full hourly".
[There might still be room to add one round-trip in the evening, since there's a two-hour gap between the next-to-last train and the last train in each direction.]

 

[cirdan]

As we have been discussing ....

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/...to-test-after-customer-service-snafu-18321927
Looks like people are noticing. Maybe this will give an impetus to Brightline to clean up their act.

So much for the claims we keep on hearing that Brightline comes from the hospitality industry side and understands this aspect way better than, say, Amtrak.

 

[Anderson]

So much for the claims we keep on hearing that Brightline comes from the hospitality industry side and understands this aspect way better than, say, Amtrak.

I mean, I think Brightline is still better than Amtrak in a lot of ways...but they've got some serious bugs on this side as well.

 

[JamesWhitcombRiley]

Also, is this info regarding speed limit data available anywhere or is it just info you happen to know? Would love to see about any other areas on the BL/FEC route that appear straight but have lower operating speeds etc.

https://railroads.dot.gov/environme...lorida-miami-orlando-passenger-rail-service-0Fort Pierce is not a straight run. The largest curve is 3-40-00 degrees if I'm reading the track chart correctly, at 341.2, between Avenue D and Avenue C underpass, which Google maps calls AE Backus Ave. That's all just north of the yard. Previous freight speed was 60mph to 50 to 40 back to 60. The new design for freight is 70, 60, 50, 40, 70. And for pax, 110, 60, 50, 40, 90. The document is so old it's called All Aboard Florida, and some changes were made, it seems. I was bugging the Virtual Railfan denizens on the railcam at Cocoa when construction started there about why it didn't match my downloaded track charts. They said, well that changed.

8 Minutes. From 3hr 38m down to 3hr 30m with Boca Raton, or from 3hr 33m to 3hr 25m without. I'm not certain but I think there is approximately 10 minutes of padding included (both before and after).

Two odd things with the schedule I didn't notice at first. On weekdays it shows 18 trains arriving into Miami but only 17 departing; and at Boca Raton, 12 trains stop southbound but only 8 trains stop northbound.

Morning commutes are more concentrated. Can also be a bad time on the road if you're new to the area and everyone is acting like they're late for work and you should know where all the turn lanes are!

 

[Anderson]

Something I'd add, on the customer service side of things: During the booking scramble back in September, I accidentally booked a ticket while logged out. The system never gave me a credit (I poked and poked at it, but nothing ever populated in my account) and I ultimately had to hit them with a chargeback (I gave them a month, but there was no way to enter the voucher number that I could find, and it was supposed to post over on its own anyway...). They only gave me a kludge after the chargeback was made permanent (I'd already told my CC, truthfully, that I had no way to add the alleged credit to my account that I could find) and I'm not convinced the kludge would work properly, anyway (given everything else that went wrong even getting to that point) so I'm just considering the chargeback to have settled things.

 

[daybeers]

When they delayed initial service and issued refunds, I gave customer service plenty of time and repeated emails to try and get my refund issued, but eventually had to use a chargeback as well.

 

[jis]

I got the refund without any further intervention on my part.

 

[bonzoesc]

I got the refund without any further intervention on my part.

Likewise, got an email 2-sep-2023 about it being refunded 31-Aug-2023.

 

[jis]

https://www.thenextmiami.com/bright...ears-100k-per-month-speed-increase-announced/

 

[west point]

https://www.thenextmiami.com/bright...ears-100k-per-month-speed-increase-announced/

So, how many trips are sold out MIA / West Palm <> MCO? Disregarding the shorts MIA <> West Palm what is the present theoretical number of passengers 30-day month?

 

[Anderson]

https://www.thenextmiami.com/bright...ears-100k-per-month-speed-increase-announced/

I'll need to update my spreadsheet, but it sounds like the shorts are continuing to get hosed. A 10% gain is nice, but that's well down from where that ridership was for most of '23.

Please note that while that pace would put annualized ridership to/from MCO at just over 1.1m/yr, November and December have generally been strong months...so we'll see how this plays into 2024.

The additional cars can't arrive soon enough.

 

[Anderson]

As with prior months, the tables below are short distance, then long distance, then combined.

2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   125,475     2.6         $2,588,549    $20.72    $20.63
2023    October     126,059     3.1         $3,092,227    $24.59    $24.53
2023    November    112,423     2.9         $2,915,128    $25.79    $25.93

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2023    September    17,578     1.5          $1,479,364    $85.33    $84.16   
2023    October      79,686     7.3          $7,314,378    $91.61    $91.79
2023    November     93,184     8.4          $8,360,468    $90.14    $89.72

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   143,053     4.1         $4,068,427    $28.66    $28.44    5.8     $40.54
2023    October     205,745    10.4        $10,406,582    $50.55    $50.58   12.8     $62.21
2023    November    205,607    11.3        $11,275,488    $54.96    $54.84   13.9     $67.60

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

 

[Anderson]

So, the November numbers are pretty...meh. Orlando service is taking off, and that is definitely a plus, but overall ridership is flat. I was, in fact, in error about November 2022 being strong (2021 doesn't count, 2020 didn't happen, but I recall 2019 being somewhat on the strong side). The buried lede is that the short-haul ridership numbers are at their weakest since Boca/Aventura opened, which suggests that they're seriously getting hit among the commuter crowd.

It looks like there might be a practical cap of around 200-225k riders (give or take) with the current equipment availability. We've only got two months of data, so it's too early to tell, but that's definitely the sense I'm getting. A lack of peak-hour space is probably costing Brightline a lot of ridership "pairs" down at the south end (a few posts have noted that AVE-MIA is where the sell-outs are happening), since if you can't get a ride one way you probably won't bother with it in the other direction.

The dip in PPR for the long-haul trains would be more concerning if there wasn't a period of constrained capacity (above and beyond the generic constraints) at the start of the month, and it also likely involves a larger share of riders getting pushed into Smart vs Premium as well (which is never going to help that number).