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The fastest and least expensive route is to use SR528 to I4 and then west to Tampa using the median of I4 until downtown Tampa. If they use the median of I4 they can run from tampa to the orlando airport in under an hour at 125 mph with one stop. This would allow for less than 4 hours travel time from Tampa to Miami, downtown to downtown. 3 hours to WPB from Tampa. That would be competitive with driving and should be very popular as driving to downtown Miami from Tampa via I75 is not pleasant at all! As the 2006 FL Rail Plan showed, Tampa Bay to Central FL and Tampa Bay to S Florida are 2 of the 3 most heavily traveled city pairs within Florida. Central FL to S Florida is #2. TPA to CFL is #1. TPA to SFL is #3.
Talking very informally I get the impression that AAF would like to exit the Airport to the South, not the North. They apparently wish to use the SR417 alignment to get to I-4. This is a shorter route, with run through at the airport station rather than requiring a reversal.Beyond that the impression I get is that they want to follow I-4. They don't care much about stopping at Lakeland. So that eliminates all the jiggery pokery with CSX that is discussed by the proposer of the scheme above. Additionally their inclination would be to place their station in the vicinity of Tampa Airport rather than at TUS. The TUS bit is a Railfan's dream that is unlikely to materialize, for the reasons you state.

AAF's style is to minimize risk for maximum transport advantage, and that would cause them to avoid downtown Lakeland and TUS. But of course, we will see. If they had owned a huge parcel of land in the downtown Lakeland, that would have changed the equation I suppose.
To clarify, I meant that they would likely use the old FL HSR route south through the airport and then northwest towards the Orlando convention center meeting back up with SR528 somewhere east of I4. Although they could easily use SR417 as the way to get to I4. They already have experience negotiating with CFX and FDOT to gain access to the ROW.
I had not heard of them being interested in a stop further west in Tampa near the airport. There isn't much land available for new TOD and a station in that area of Tampa. What is available will be expensive as westshore is one of the most popular business districts anywhere with high rents and very high occupancy rates. The section of north downtown close to I275 offers more vacant lots or low quality structures that could be bought cheaply and easily be torn down to build TOD and a station.

Of course they have to first get to Orlando! Otherwise, this talk is all napkin drawing we are engaging in haha

Edit: the heavy maintainence facility will be built south of the airport. The design shows mainline tracks on the north edge of the facility curving to the west.
 
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I might run into someone from Brightline at the FRPC Meeting this Friday. If I do I'll ask and most likely s/he will say that s/he doesn't know.
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I am not sure they know for sure what they might actually do between Orlando Airport and I-4 at this time. Various options are being or will be considered possibly, sort of like it was about getting to SR528 from the FEC alignment. I have not seen much evidence that they hae started any serious work on it so far. I think they have done more concrete work related to Jacksonville than Tampa at present.

I am almost certain that they do not have any fixed plan for what they will do in Tampa, except maybe some general principles that are similar to those used to select the station locations in their current project. I suspect whatever they choose will have rather good local transport connectivity, and if possible connectivity to the airport via some form of efficient shuttle bus or some such. I doubt they will build a station in the middle of a residential neighborhood or at a place where it is hard to get good local transport connectivity. And finally, they will choose the most cost effective option.
 
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The reason why I think SR528 to I4 using the old FLHSR route is still in play is that I know that AAF has been working with FDOT during the design of portions of the I4 Ultimate project that will impact the median of I4 between SR528 and US27. FDOT has basically cleared the median for AAF to use west of SR528 once I4 Ultimate is fully built.

I agree with what u say about their process of choosing station sites. The north downtown site next to I275 is adjacent to the Marion Transit Center for busses in Hillsborough County. There are long term plans to build a rail connection from downtown to the airport using the I275 median through West Tampa.

But the main determining factor for both Jacksonville and Tampa is what city will bring in the most profit. That will include potential TOD at each terminal. There are pros and cons for both cities. Cons: Tampa has higher costs to construct the new route. Jacksonville has limited TOD potential due to the convention center and already planned transportation infrastructure in the preferred station location area.

Pros: Tampa has better ridership potential and more TOD possibilities. Jacksonville is cheaper to construct and easier to get running.
 
(1) I think there's a case for a Disney World stop if Disney is inclined to cooperate (which might involve some sort of "sidebar" off of I-4; frankly, a good candidate would be roughly where the Casting Building is or the gas station next door...it's not at one of the parks [1] but it's within the general network of the Disney bus system.

(2) Going via SR-528/I-4 also includes the not-insignificant advantage of being able to potentially add an OCCC/Sea World stop (at least for some trains). I don't see this as a short-term item, but I could see it as a longer-term thing. TBH this looks like a better option than running a streetcar/light rail line to the airport (or probably than running Sunrail to the airport on its own...in the end it might just be cheaper and better to build some sort of track interchange and let Brightline dictate frequencies).

(3) Lakeland is probably an incidental concern. It's not the smallest city in the region, but playing all of those games to move the line from two miles outside of downtown (probably with much better TOD options; you've got a lot of open space out by I-4, so there's room to really grow a development in some places and other places you could probably acquire and repurpose some neighboring land...and looking at an overhead shot of the I-4/US-98 interchange, the interstate's median widens substantially, almost like it was...I dunno, planned to have a station there?) to downtown with limited TOD.

(4) Ok, Tampa. You have a wide preserved median on I-4 that could easily fit a station out by Ybor City. Same thing west of downtown. There's a mile or three of area between these stretches on I-4 and I-275, however, that doesn't look like it has a decent ROW. Also of note is the fact that the Marion Transit Center is here.

Looking at Tampa Union Station, /if I wanted to use it/ I'd stay on I-4 until Nuccio Parkway/12th Avenue (conveniently about where the wide median ends) and then cut over that way. You're probably looking at about a 1500-2500' connection there. The problem is getting /past/ Union Station, since the tracks run down the middle of Polk Street and you have both one overhead footbridge and a parking garage stradding the tracks to deal with. Between that and the fact that those tracks are CSX's access to Port Tampa, I think you have a very real problem here...but at the same time, the I-4/I-275 interchange might be enough of a mess that this is more feasible to work with. I guess the other question is whether, if this were happening regardless, Tampa/Hillsborough County would look to piggyback a commuter rail operation on this (a la Tri-Rail)? If they're interested (much as if Jacksonville is interested in something towards St. Augustine), that might pick up some of the tab.

Ideally, I think Brightline would want two stations in Tampa (one somewhere vaguely near downtown and one at the airport) since I see the airport as sort-of an afterthought here. I think stub-ending near Ybor City might also be a viable short-term solution, too, since dealing with that chunk of freeway mess and/or downtown is a nightmare (and a stupidly expensive one at that) in my mind. I just don't see any particularly good options for dealing with that.

Finally, I think Jacksonville will come first. It is cheaper, they already own the whole ROW, etc. There's more ridership to be had on the Tampa line, but there's also a lot more work and expense involved.


[1] I actually think a station at one of the parks is a questionable idea for various reasons, not least of which is that grade crossing in the Epcot idea. However, I also think this comes back to "How will Disney interact with us?" insofar as if WDW were willing to commit to cutting most or all of the DMX buses it might help take some sting out of any messing with the routing.
 
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If/when all phases have been built out, would we see any reduction of Amtrak Florida service? Perhaps through ticketing and/or connecting services?

Also, what might the infill stations be on a WPB-JAX stretch? I can see Gainesville as a contender.

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If/when all phases have been built out, would we see any reduction of Amtrak Florida service? Perhaps through ticketing and/or connecting services?

Also, what might the infill stations be on a WPB-JAX stretch? I can see Gainesville as a contender.

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Amtrak and AAF will have no through ticketing, it's one of the ways they got around STB regulations. Besides, there are only 2 long distance trains serving Florida and they serve an entirely different demographic.

Gainesville is over 50 miles away from the FEC. In fact, it's been decades since a railroad mainline ran through Gainesville.
 
If/when all phases have been built out, would we see any reduction of Amtrak Florida service? Perhaps through ticketing and/or connecting services?

Also, what might the infill stations be on a WPB-JAX stretch? I can see Gainesville as a contender.

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There is absolutely zero chance that Gainesville will be served by AAF. Might be a good time to crack open a map of Florida to refresh geographical knowledge relevant to this discussion.

We know that Brevard County is negotiating with AAF for initially one and eventually possibly two stations. The re are three candidate locations that have been shortlisted from an original list of nine. The most likely location for the first station appears to be in the Cocoa/Rockledge area where FECI owns a large parcel of land. We know that Fort Pierce has started talking to AAF

North of Cocoa when/if service is extended to JAX I would suspect Daytona and St. Augustine as lead candidates in addition to JAX, but those will come after the Orlando service commences and the fillin station(s) between WPB and Orlando Airport go into service.
 
Disney is a paradox. On one hand, it would give Brightline more passengers than it world ever need to remain solvent. On the other hand, it would be REALLY crowded, particularly on short routes, potentially log jamming availability for through passengers.

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The other paradox that I have heard about from a few people familiar with Disney's business practices is that Disney actually may not want them there, and may actually prefer picking their customers up at the airport, as they consider that as part of the Disney experience. I have no idea about the veracity of that, but this has been stated by several including at least one person from AAF.

Of course with a non-cooperative Disney, there is close to zero chance of getting a station at Disney.
 
The other paradox that I have heard about from a few people familiar with Disney's business practices is that Disney actually may not want them there, and may actually prefer picking their customers up at the airport, as they consider that as part of the Disney experience. I have no idea about the veracity of that, but this has been stated by several including at least one person from AAF.

Of course with a non-cooperative Disney, there is close to zero chance of getting a station at Disney.
As a former WDW employee, I can attest that used to be the case. They don't seem to care that much any more (Mears was certainly no Disney experience but operated exclusively for decades). They go in phases from wanting to control everything to nothing. It's like Space Mountain - wandering in the dark. I will almost guarantee one thing, though. They will want a piece of any action on their property. They will assuredly be on the receiving side of cash.
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The other paradox that I have heard about from a few people familiar with Disney's business practices is that Disney actually may not want them there, and may actually prefer picking their customers up at the airport, as they consider that as part of the Disney experience. I have no idea about the veracity of that, but this has been stated by several including at least one person from AAF.

Of course with a non-cooperative Disney, there is close to zero chance of getting a station at Disney.
Attitudes can change over time.

Paris Disney has a TGV sttaion, and the next stop along is the airport, so the overall situation is pretty comparable.
 
The other paradox that I have heard about from a few people familiar with Disney's business practices is that Disney actually may not want them there, and may actually prefer picking their customers up at the airport, as they consider that as part of the Disney experience. I have no idea about the veracity of that, but this has been stated by several including at least one person from AAF.

Of course with a non-cooperative Disney, there is close to zero chance of getting a station at Disney.
Attitudes can change over time.

Paris Disney has a TGV sttaion, and the next stop along is the airport, so the overall situation is pretty comparable.
Disney's number one asset is their very private property. If they even get an inkling they'll lose control over their real estate, they will fight.
The international locations, I can't comment on, other than Tokyo. That's a franchise park and it took 10 years to get a station adjacent and another 10 for their monorail.

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One thing not noted is that quite a few of the AAF executives have ties, either directly or indirectly, with Disney. These connections could be an asset no matter the route Brightline takes.
 
One thing not noted is that quite a few of the AAF executives have ties, either directly or indirectly, with Disney. These connections could be an asset no matter the route Brightline takes.
Exactly, and those ties could be used to establish either an additional station, or a seamless interoperating connectivity to Disney Shuttles at the Airport station.

The latter would appear to be a much less expensive alternative, and easily put in place from day 1. Any build out from Orlando Airport is many many years away, maybe even a decade away.
 
Don Robinson and Mike Reininger had previous jobs at Disney and maybe one or two others at AAF did as well. Don left over a year ago and Mike is leaving once they open the Miami station.

However, there are several left at AAF who worked on the FL HSR project and probably had knowledge of or involved in the early negotiations with Disney for a stop at WDW along I-4. AAF could still have a stop in the median of I4 at WDW no matter if they choose to use SR417 or SR528 to get from the airport to I4.

If AAF ever does expand to Tampa, serving WDW shouldn't be too hard even if the stop proves very popular. An additional trainset could be used for local round trips between the Airport and WDW with a train every 30 minutes. Perhaps with some incentives/agreements, it could be a Disney branded train running on AAF tracks.
 
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Just saw this in the Orlando Business Journal.

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2018/03/22/orlando-international-airport-exec-share-more-on.html

Fair use excerpt:

The $3.5 billion Brightline train will soon be moving into the airport's Intermodal Terminal Facility where it, along with SunRail and an undetermined light rail, will be housed.

Stan Thornton, Greater Orlando Aviation Authority COO, said the crew will be moving in as early as next week. "They are going to start setting up in their office in the Intermodal Terminal Facility that they've been constructing out. Planning and engineering officers are going to be down in there," said Thornton.

Thornton added that with the latest conversations between the airport and Brightline officials, it looks like they will be ready to start construction on the property in June/July where there will be physical construction on the airport's property. "What they've told us is that from the time they actually start, they have a 30-month construction schedule to get that done," Thornton said.
 
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Did a quick round trip this morning to take advantage of the 50% off promo. Only a handful of people going south on the first train of the day. Coming back north on the first train out of Fort Lauderdale there were 150 people on board: Select class was sold out plus another 100 people in Smart. Most were going to the boat show. I wonder how many people took advantage of the promo?

Brightline is running a free shuttle from the station to the Palm Beach Outlets Mall (5 to 10 minutes away), but I didn't see anyone taking advantage of it. The Easter Bunny was also onboard, passing out free candy and taking pictures with other riders.

With snowbird season winding down, I imagine ridership will drop off a little. That said, when Miami opens, I can see this thing really take off. This weekend is also the Miami Ultra music festival, and Tri-Rail has been running an extra late night train leaving Miami after 1:30 am to accommodate attendees. I imagine Brightline will do something similar next year, and with Miami Heat games.
 
Something tells me that when I "come on down" next January (I'm already booked at Marriott "catty corner" to Arsht Center in Miami) for a Cleveland Orchestra concert, I will be able to take a joyride right from Miami Central.

I know both here and at other sites at which I participate, I have been highly skeptical of this initiative. If they do build it out to McCoy, who knows if they will make any $$$ at doing so, for being privately held, AAF can be completely opaque "about everything". Maybe they believe they can justify higher rents and occupancies at the properties parent FECI has or will acquire in the vicinity of the three Southern stations (not much chance for that at MCO); but the public will never know because "we don't have to tell you".
 
Mr. Norman, AAF is already making plans to start construction to Orlando in July 2018. They have already been hiring professionals and management to oversee the construction of phase 2. There will be 4 construction areas with separate project managers responsible for overseeing work in each area. AAF has also been laying the groundwork to get to MCO by recently agreeing to pay for a land transfer between the CFX, GOAA, and the city of Orlando near the airport. This is in the latest GOAA Board meeting agenda for next week for their approval. They have also paid out monies to GOAA for other miscellaneous items such as security fencing and to an account set up by FDOT to help construct the new Wekiva (edit: is the Osceola Parkway, my mistake) parkway east of the airport that is on the Mormon church land (Deseret Ranch). That was part of the complex deal reached in 2013/14 so that CFX could obtain another 200ft of land from Deseret Ranch along SR528 that AAF has already paid CFX $12M for. All I am saying is that phase 2 is happening now even if it might not be visible to the general public.

Also, AAF Stations LLC owns the TOD at each south Florida station, not FECI. AAF Operations LLC operates the trains and is responsible for any rail related expenses or profits. I know (through the property appraiser office records search) that AAF affiliated companies have bought additional property in FTL that is not part of the immediate station and garage development area. There are more opportunities for AAF Stations LLC than just at the stations.

Edit: Re Miami station- I read somewhere that crews were working hard to get the north half the station open first in order to meet the deadline of April. That is how they will open the station so soon even though it looks like it isn't ready.
 
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Unrelated, the GOAA board is also to consider an agenda item to officially name the ITF center at MCO the "Rick Scott and Ann Scott ITF". I guess that when Gov Scott approved spending several $100M of state monies on the ITF, it was an important decision personaly for Gov Scott. I will have to stomach seeing that name every time I go there in return for it being built! LOL
 
Unrelated, the GOAA board is also to consider an agenda item to officially name the ITF center at MCO the "Rick Scott and Ann Scott ITF". I guess that when Gov Scott approved spending several $100M of state monies on the ITF, it was an important decision personaly for Gov Scott. I will have to stomach seeing that name every time I go there in return for it being built! LOL
In all fairness, we're only talking about this project having happened because he put a fork in the previous HSR project, giving AAF an opening.
 
Unrelated, the GOAA board is also to consider an agenda item to officially name the ITF center at MCO the "Rick Scott and Ann Scott ITF". I guess that when Gov Scott approved spending several $100M of state monies on the ITF, it was an important decision personaly for Gov Scott. I will have to stomach seeing that name every time I go there in return for it being built! LOL
In all fairness, we're only talking about this project having happened because he put a fork in the previous HSR project, giving AAF an opening.
Yes and that fork quite possibly could have been tainted (See Hollingsworth). There was bipartisan support in the FL legislature for HSR and it would have been built but for one man. Scott was very divisive during his first 2 or 3 years in office. He has led the charge against good growth management regulations as well as environmental laws in general. Even previous Republican governors in recent history have never rolled back rules and signed new laws in such a way that benefit developers at the expense of the environment here. I could go on about how much harm he has done. AAF is probably one of the few good things to come out of his being Governor.
 
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