REALLY BAD OTP

[ThayerATM]

We're planning a trip in Septenber on 49 from ROC to CHI, then connecting on 5 from CHI to EMY. (THREE DAY cushion in EMY) Then on 14 to SEA. (THREE DAY cushion in SEA) Then on 8 from SEA to CHI, and connecting with 48 from CHI to ROC. :hi:

I've been tracking the OTP of the five trains for the past 84 days, using what Amtrak has posted in their "STATUS" area. So far the results have been pretty dismal. :blink:

On 52.4% of the days, [44] there was at least one day that we would have missed at least one of those connections. On 7% [6] of the other days there would have been a missed connection, but Amtrak held a train 'till the earlier one got there. On a couple of those days the connection was made just because the departing train left so much later than it normally would have, that the connection still could be made.

I know that this winter has been horrendous for the Empire Builder (7 & 8) and no piece of cake for the Lake Shore Limited. (48 & 49) Now it's not looking good for the Coast Starlight. (11 & 14) hboy:

When I add it all up, it looks like there was a missed connection, or at least a likely chance of a missed connection 59.7% of the time. :unsure:

I'll never book those trains in the winter. Now I'm wondering if September is safe.

 

[amamba]

Uh oh. I have an LSL to the SWC connection at the end of March - here is to hoping that I make it!

 

[ThayerATM]

Uh oh. I have an LSL to the SWC connection at the end of March - here is to hoping that I make it!

The odds of making any ONE connection are a lot better than making all five. Actually, going west your odds are a LOT better in CHI. Out of the 84 days, there were only six days that we wouldn't have made the connection from the LSL to the CZ in CHI.

Your odds also vastly improve by leaving in late March.

You've also got an extra 45 minutes built in with the current schedule.

The LSL is scheduled to arrive at 9:45 AM into CHI.

The CZ is scheduled to leave CHI at 2:00 PM

The SWC is scheduled to leave CHI at 2:45 PM.

You'll very probably make it. I'd bet on in in March. :lol:

 

[the_traveler]

Now it's not looking good for the Coast Starlight. (11 & 14)

Don't forget that the CS has a 2 hour difference in schedule in Feb and March of this year.

Maybe they know who I am

, but I have never had a missed connection!

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Yeah, this winter has been a real eye opener for me as well. I had originally planned a nice long snowy train trip for this month but now I'm almost glad it didn't work out. I'm not going to single out Amtrak in this case as they don't own the rails and the airlines were just as bad if not worse, but it's still a major concern for working age folks like me who need to know when they'll be returning to the office. The one thing I wish Amtrak would change is allowing customer-initiated padding in the form of planned stopovers that don't require additional AGR points to resume. Wouldn't that be nice?

 

[ThayerATM]

Now it's not looking good for the Coast Starlight. (11 & 14)

Don't forget that the CS has a 2 hour difference in schedule in Feb and March of this year.

Maybe they know who I am

, but I have never had a missed connection!

I'm aware of that change in the timetable for the Coast Starlight. hboy: Actually, I re-wrote the Arr/Dep times in the spreadsheet.

But that doesn't account for the number of times that Amtrak's posted "SD" instead of arrival or departure times for the Coast Starlight in EMY. <_< The same goes for SEA. <_< Several "SD" listings. I'm really sorry for 7 & 8 in and out of SEA, but most of those things have been due to weather. I figured some of 11 and 14's misery might have been due to the weather too, but my sources in Seattle haven't mentioned any unusual weather. :lol: Maybe it's LA???? :unsure: :lol:

 

[Cristobal]

Now it's not looking good for the Coast Starlight. (11 & 14)

Don't forget that the CS has a 2 hour difference in schedule in Feb and March of this year.

Maybe they know who I am

, but I have never had a missed connection!

I'm aware of that change in the timetable for the Coast Starlight. hboy: Actually, I re-wrote the Arr/Dep times in the spreadsheet.

But that doesn't account for the number of times that Amtrak's posted "SD" instead of arrival or departure times for the Coast Starlight in EMY. <_< The same goes for SEA. <_< Several "SD" listings. I'm really sorry for 7 & 8 in and out of SEA, but most of those things have been due to weather. I figured some of 11 and 14's misery might have been due to the weather too, but my sources in Seattle haven't mentioned any unusual weather. :lol: Maybe it's LA???? :unsure: :lol:

I think that the 14 has been getting turned at PDX due to yet another mudslide north of Vancouver with SEA pax getting bused the rest of the way. That would at least explain the recent Service Disruptions at that end for the CS.

 

[ThayerATM]

Yeah, this winter has been a real eye opener for me as well. I had originally planned a nice long snowy train trip for this month but now I'm almost glad it didn't work out. I'm not going to single out Amtrak in this case as they don't own the rails and the airlines were just as bad if not worse, but it's still a major concern for working age folks like me who need to know when they'll be returning to the office. The one thing I wish Amtrak would change is allowing customer-initiated padding in the form of planned stopovers that don't require additional AGR points to resume. Wouldn't that be nice?

I'm definitely NOT blaming Amtrak for the mess this winter. :blink:

I'll admit that I'm not constrained by AGR restrictions, but I still belong to the elderly working age folks. I still have to be back to work at the end of my vacation. But my age does give me a little wiggle room. ^_^ If I have to call from SPK and tell the powers-that-be that I'll be a couple of days late getting home because of a mudslide in SPT, they're not going to give me a whole lot of lip.

But in either case, how could we ever predict where we might want to plan a customer-initiated layover? How could we ever predict WHERE we might need the additional padding? :unsure:

 

[Cristobal]

Yeah, this winter has been a real eye opener for me as well. I had originally planned a nice long snowy train trip for this month but now I'm almost glad it didn't work out. I'm not going to single out Amtrak in this case as they don't own the rails and the airlines were just as bad if not worse, but it's still a major concern for working age folks like me who need to know when they'll be returning to the office. The one thing I wish Amtrak would change is allowing customer-initiated padding in the form of planned stopovers that don't require additional AGR points to resume. Wouldn't that be nice?

I'm definitely NOT blaming Amtrak for the mess this winter. :blink:

I'll admit that I'm not constrained by AGR restrictions, but I still belong to the elderly working age folks. I still have to be back to work at the end of my vacation. But my age does give me a little wiggle room. ^_^ If I have to call from SPK and tell the powers-that-be that I'll be a couple of days late getting home because of a mudslide in SPT, they're not going to give me a whole lot of lip.

But in either case, how could we ever predict where we might want to plan a customer-initiated layover? How could we ever predict WHERE we might need the additional padding? :unsure:

While no one can predict where we might actually need the layover, something like my connection in late May from the 14 to the 28 in PDX with only about a 1 hour buffer would certainly qualify as one that I might like to 'protect' with an overnight stay in PDX. However, being an AGR reward trip, I've decided to 'roll the dice' with a continuous SJC-CHI 2-zone trip instead of paying out-of-pocket for SJC-PDX (plus hotel) and using the same 2-zone reward for PDX-CHI.

Wish me luck! :mellow:

P.S. I know that it is a guaranteed connection and that Amtrak will do what they can to make it work out. But the idea of possibly having to be put on a bus (or, worse yet, not getting a sleeper if put on the next day's train ) does make me a little uneasy.

 

[jmbgeg]

We're planning a trip in Septenber on 49 from ROC to CHI, then connecting on 5 from CHI to EMY. (THREE DAY cushion in EMY) Then on 14 to SEA. (THREE DAY cushion in SEA) Then on 8 from SEA to CHI, and connecting with 48 from CHI to ROC. :hi:

I've been tracking the OTP of the five trains for the past 84 days, using what Amtrak has posted in their "STATUS" area. So far the results have been pretty dismal. :blink:

On 52.4% of the days, [44] there was at least one day that we would have missed at least one of those connections. On 7% [6] of the other days there would have been a missed connection, but Amtrak held a train 'till the earlier one got there. On a couple of those days the connection was made just because the departing train left so much later than it normally would have, that the connection still could be made.

I know that this winter has been horrendous for the Empire Builder (7 & 8) and no piece of cake for the Lake Shore Limited. (48 & 49) Now it's not looking good for the Coast Starlight. (11 & 14) hboy:

When I add it all up, it looks like there was a missed connection, or at least a likely chance of a missed connection 59.7% of the time. :unsure:

I'll never book those trains in the winter. Now I'm wondering if September is safe.

This site http://amtrakdelays.onlineschedulingsoftware.com/ reports the following for the last four weeks:

Empire Builder #7 to SEA

Average arrival was 124 minutes late, or 2.07 hours

Longest arrival was 816 minutes late or 13.6 hours

Empire Builder #27 to PDX

Average arrival was 148 minutes late, or 2.47 hours

Longest arrival was 837 minutes late or 13.42 hours

Empire Builder #8/28 to CHI

Average arrival was 308 minutes late, or 5.08 hours

Longest arrival was 837 minutes late or 13.95 hours

Data does not include consequences of service disruptions/cancellations

 

[pennyk]

Now it's not looking good for the Coast Starlight. (11 & 14)

Don't forget that the CS has a 2 hour difference in schedule in Feb and March of this year.

Maybe they know who I am

, but I have never had a missed connection!

I have never missed a connection either (I tell people that I know The Traveler).

I traveled across country and back last August/September and made each connection. (SM/Card/CZ/CS - 2 nights in Seattle - EB/CL/SM). I was worried about the possibility of a hurricane disrupting one of the east coast trains, but luckily, that did not happen. My guess is that you will not have to worry too much about hurricanes.

 

[ThayerATM]

Now it's not looking good for the Coast Starlight. (11 & 14)

Don't forget that the CS has a 2 hour difference in schedule in Feb and March of this year.

Maybe they know who I am

, but I have never had a missed connection!

I have never missed a connection either (I tell people that I know The Traveler).

I traveled across country and back last August/September and made each connection. (SM/Card/CZ/CS - 2 nights in Seattle - EB/CL/SM). I was worried about the possibility of a hurricane disrupting one of the east coast trains, but luckily, that did not happen. My guess is that you will not have to worry too much about hurricanes.

I've never missed a connection either. But I had to cancel my entire first Amtrak LD trip because Amtrak cancelled the second leg (CZ out of CHI) due to flooding in Iowa, with no alternate means of transportation, the day before we were to leave ROC. :lol: I already had the tickets printed, yet Amtrak still refunded everything 100%. We flew to SAC.

I've learned a thing or two since then. Today I'd probably take Lake Shore Limited to CHI, then the Chief to LAX, then the Starlight up to SAC, which was our original destination. But that's Monday morning quarterbacking. <_<

 

[ThayerATM]

Yeah, this winter has been a real eye opener for me as well. I had originally planned a nice long snowy train trip for this month but now I'm almost glad it didn't work out. I'm not going to single out Amtrak in this case as they don't own the rails and the airlines were just as bad if not worse, but it's still a major concern for working age folks like me who need to know when they'll be returning to the office. The one thing I wish Amtrak would change is allowing customer-initiated padding in the form of planned stopovers that don't require additional AGR points to resume. Wouldn't that be nice?

I'm definitely NOT blaming Amtrak for the mess this winter. :blink:

I'll admit that I'm not constrained by AGR restrictions, but I still belong to the elderly working age folks. I still have to be back to work at the end of my vacation. But my age does give me a little wiggle room. ^_^ If I have to call from SPK and tell the powers-that-be that I'll be a couple of days late getting home because of a mudslide in SPT, they're not going to give me a whole lot of lip.

But in either case, how could we ever predict where we might want to plan a customer-initiated layover? How could we ever predict WHERE we might need the additional padding? :unsure:

While no one can predict where we might actually need the layover, something like my connection in late May from the 14 to the 28 in PDX with only about a 1 hour buffer would certainly qualify as one that I might like to 'protect' with an overnight stay in PDX. However, being an AGR reward trip, I've decided to 'roll the dice' with a continuous SJC-CHI 2-zone trip instead of paying out-of-pocket for SJC-PDX (plus hotel) and using the same 2-zone reward for PDX-CHI.

Wish me luck! :mellow:

P.S. I know that it is a guaranteed connection and that Amtrak will do what they can to make it work out. But the idea of possibly having to be put on a bus (or, worse yet, not getting a sleeper if put on the next day's train ) does make me a little uneasy.

Your PLAN makes sense to me, and I DO wish you luck. Sometimes I really wish I could get with the program and have the patience to include AGR points into our trips. I've got a gazillion AMEX reward points that I seem to never get around to redeeming. :unsure: But I still prefer to spend my time planning where I want to go, and how to get there, rather than spend my time on how to collect coupons and points, and let that decide for me. :unsure:

Too bad I'm so rich, instead of being smarter and more good looking. :lol:

 

[AlanB]

I've got a gazillion AMEX reward points that I seem to never get around to redeeming. :unsure:

If you don't already have one, open a Continental Airlines OnePass miles account and transfer some of those Amex points over there at a 1 to 1 ratio. Then once they're in your Continental account, transfer them into your AGR account again at a 1 to 1 ratio. Lots of free Amtrak trips that way!

 

[anir dendroica]

But that doesn't account for the number of times that Amtrak's posted "SD" instead of arrival or departure times for the Coast Starlight in EMY. <_< The same goes for SEA. <_< Several "SD" listings. I'm really sorry for 7 & 8 in and out of SEA, but most of those things have been due to weather. I figured some of 11 and 14's misery might have been due to the weather too, but my sources in Seattle haven't mentioned any unusual weather. :lol: Maybe it's LA???? :unsure: :lol:

One really unfortunate thing about Amtrak's system is that if a train is disrupted at any point along the route it goes into "service disruption" status and looks to all appearances like it has been canceled. Perhaps 60% of "SD" trains are bustituted over some portion of the route (many of these are on time or nearly so), 20% make it the full distance but with severe delays, and 20% are actually canceled.

As far as I know:

The Empire Builder has been canceled on five occasions this winter, 12/15 (blizzard in MN), 12/31, 1/1, 1/2 (severe double-blizzard in ND), and 2/2 (mega-blizzard in Chicago). It has turned in Spokane perhaps 10 times on account of westbound delays (weather, two bomb scares, unexplained late departures from Chicago, freight congestion). And it has turned in Everett, WA perhaps 10 times on account of mudslides between there and Seattle. Buses provided in all cases. Seattle to Spokane is a long bus ride; Seattle to Everett wouldn't be too bad.

I don't think the Coast Starlight has ever been canceled this winter. It has been bustituted a few times due to mudslides between Portland and Seattle.

So I think you would have made your connections more often than you believe based on checking the status.

Mark

 

[ThayerATM]

But that doesn't account for the number of times that Amtrak's posted "SD" instead of arrival or departure times for the Coast Starlight in EMY. <_< The same goes for SEA. <_< Several "SD" listings. I'm really sorry for 7 & 8 in and out of SEA, but most of those things have been due to weather. I figured some of 11 and 14's misery might have been due to the weather too, but my sources in Seattle haven't mentioned any unusual weather. :lol: Maybe it's LA???? :unsure: :lol:

One really unfortunate thing about Amtrak's system is that if a train is disrupted at any point along the route it goes into "service disruption" status and looks to all appearances like it has been canceled. Perhaps 60% of "SD" trains are bustituted over some portion of the route (many of these are on time or nearly so), 20% make it the full distance but with severe delays, and 20% are actually canceled.

As far as I know:

The Empire Builder has been canceled on five occasions this winter, 12/15 (blizzard in MN), 12/31, 1/1, 1/2 (severe double-blizzard in ND), and 2/2 (mega-blizzard in Chicago). It has turned in Spokane perhaps 10 times on account of westbound delays (weather, two bomb scares, unexplained late departures from Chicago, freight congestion). And it has turned in Everett, WA perhaps 10 times on account of mudslides between there and Seattle. Buses provided in all cases. Seattle to Spokane is a long bus ride; Seattle to Everett wouldn't be too bad.

I don't think the Coast Starlight has ever been canceled this winter. It has been bustituted a few times due to mudslides between Portland and Seattle.

So I think you would have made your connections more often than you believe based on checking the status.

Mark

What you just said makes perfect sense to me, and answers most of my questions. Thank you very much. :hi: I've seen too many instances of trains arriving nearly on time, when their departure time from some distant city was marked "SD." hboy: I guess that Amtrak hasn't devised a way to post arrival or departure times for specific trainsets when a bus bidge is involved. <_<

Still, this has been a miserable winter for Amtrak, and for the entire country --- especially New Jersey. :lol: I'll continue tracking until we leave in September.

On a slightly different tack, we're going to Alexandria VA in May, and I've been tracking those trains for a week now. There was one instance where we would have missed a connection at NYP when the Silver Meteor didn't get to NYP until 4:40 PM and the the LSL had left westbound at 3:45 PM. At least Amtrak posted arrival and departure times. <_<

 

[ThayerATM]

I've got a gazillion AMEX reward points that I seem to never get around to redeeming. :unsure:

If you don't already have one, open a Continental Airlines OnePass miles account and transfer some of those Amex points over there at a 1 to 1 ratio. Then once they're in your Continental account, transfer them into your AGR account again at a 1 to 1 ratio. Lots of free Amtrak trips that way!

I'd think that you guys would have gotten it by now. :wacko: I don't clip coupons. :lol: There was a long thread over on the AGR section explaining why I decided to scrap my AGR Mastercard. It just wasn't worth my time to deal with the fuss and bother of keeping track of that stuff.

Evey five years my employer sends me a catalog of stuff that I can choose from, including a watch, but not limited to. I pick what I want, and they send it to me. :lol: Each year the catalog has gotten better and better. When I got to the 40 year cataog I was astounded. That I can deal with. Clipping coupons? I don't want to deal with that. :hi: