Superliner Shortages?

[MikeM]

With this seemingly being the summer of Amtrak's misfortune, at what point does the company decide it's time to expedite ordering more superliners, or maybe leasing / purchasing back the old ElCapitan high level coaches they sold off several years ago?

I've lost count how many cars are currently destroyed or seriously wreck damanged. I think at least two or three cars bought the farm with the truck collision on the CZ in Nevada, and suspect the baggage car on the CZ accident in Nebraska recently suffered frame damage. Interestingly enough, a week after the accident, on another board I saw pictures of the cars still sitting on sidings near the collision site in Nebraska. The baggage and two engines were upright but sitting on the ground near the tracks. Wondering why they haven't already been scooped up and sent in for shopping right away?

Although Amtrak has this long term plan for fleet acquisition, it's getting to a place where they are going to have to bite the bullet on new equipment. So many times when I get around Amtrak Superliners these days, the equipment looks rough, with lots of cosmetic damage, duct tape, and worn interiors. The Superliner 2's haven't been refreshed and many of them are wandering the country with original interiors. S-1's are in better shape, but their mechanical's date back to the early 80's.

It seems like Amtrak management does not seem particularly committed to LD trains at this point, looking at the long service interruptions on the CZ, and the fact that the SWC is continuing to struggle on the northern Santa Fe routing despite BNSF indicating they will not maintain the tracks to passenger train standards. No news, that I know at least, that any decision has been made to subsidize maintenance, reroute the train, or just run it until the tracks fall apart and then decide to panic.

I'd be curious to hear what others are thinking, particularly if anyone has heard of any rumblings on the equipment front. It just seems like Amtrak is back into drift mode which is sad.

 

[NY Penn]

They aren't going to order new equipment until Congress states that LDs will definitely remain.

 

[amtkstn]

When the new cars for the east coast trains are deliverd in a few years, Amtrak will think about getting funds to order a new generation of Superliners. Until that time they will keep rebuilding the Superliners I's. The Santa Fe cars are past the 50 year rule for passenger cars to be in service.

 

[the_traveler]

Interestingly enough, a week after the accident, on another board I saw pictures of the cars still sitting on sidings near the collision site in Nebraska. The baggage and two engines were upright but sitting on the ground near the tracks. Wondering why they haven't already been scooped up and sent in for shopping right away?

The reason they are still sitting there is because the NTSB and insurance investigators have to finish their work before the cars can be released.

The reason no more Superliners are being built is two-fold:

1. Money from Congress
2. There is no place to build them - the company that built them went out of business long ago!

If Congress said today "Here's $xxx Million to built new Superliners", by the time the design is decided, the bids go out, the plant is built, the workers are trained, etc... - you may see the first new car roll off the line in like 2020!

 

[AmtrakBlue]

Interestingly enough, a week after the accident, on another board I saw pictures of the cars still sitting on sidings near the collision site in Nebraska. The baggage and two engines were upright but sitting on the ground near the tracks. Wondering why they haven't already been scooped up and sent in for shopping right away?

The reason they are still sitting there is because the NTSB and insurance investigators have to finish their work before the cars can be released.

The reason no more Superliners are being built is two-fold:

1. Money from Congress
2. There is no place to build them - the company that built them went out of business long ago!

If Congress said today "Here's $xxx Million to built new Superliners", by the time the design is decided, the bids go out, the plant is built, the workers are trained, etc... - you may see the first new car roll off the line in like 2020!

Sounds like a great job creation opportunity for the Prez. Build LD infrastructure for passenger trains and new cars & engines for the those trains.

 

[Trogdor]

It won't take until 2020, if the money was available. After all, the Superliner shell was last built by Alstom (Surfliners), who, I believe, is still in business.

The company that built the Viewliners went out of business during production, and despite none having been produced since 1995 (the Surfliners were built in 2000/2001), it should only take 2-2.5 years from contract award to first delivery of the next set.

One thing that works in the Superliner's favor is that there is already a design out there for the next generation bi-level corridor equipment, and an order could be placed within the next year. The carbody shell will likely be the same for a long-distance car vs. the corridor car, so all Amtrak would have to do (which is not to downplay the significant effort required) is design the interior/modules to get a new sleeping car layout to work.

 

[afigg]

I've lost count how many cars are currently destroyed or seriously wreck damanged. I think at least two or three cars bought the farm with the truck collision on the CZ in Nevada, and suspect the baggage car on the CZ accident in Nebraska recently suffered frame damage. Interestingly enough, a week after the accident, on another board I saw pictures of the cars still sitting on sidings near the collision site in Nebraska. The baggage and two engines were upright but sitting on the ground near the tracks. Wondering why they haven't already been scooped up and sent in for shopping right away?

Possibly for the on-site accident investigation and insurance. Or more likely, BNSF is not going to let the completely derailed cars move on their tracks until they had been throughly examined.

I'd be curious to hear what others are thinking, particularly if anyone has heard of any rumblings on the equipment front. It just seems like Amtrak is back into drift mode which is sad.

I would not say that Amtrak is into drift mode on equipment orders. They have placed orders, have landed funding, or will be placing orders for:

-130 Viewliners 2s which will take care of the baggage car shortage and boost the eastern LD fleet

-70 ACS-64 electric locomotives (which they got a $562 million RRIF loan to pay for it)

-funding for 120 bi-level and around 33 diesel locomotives for the Midwest and California corridors

-plans to order 40 Acela coach cars to expand the 20 Acela trainsets.

As stated, Amtrak really can't do anything about placing orders for new Superliners until they know how much operational funding they will get in the FY2012 budget. Which could be an ugly budget number for the LD trains when the dust settles.

The other issue is that Amtrak will have to piggyback onto the 120 bi-level car order to place an order for cars in Superliner III sleeper, coach, diner, lounge configurations. That order has only just begun the long RFP, bid, review, decision, and negotiation process. Until a manufacturer for the bi-levels has been selected, Amtrak has to wait to place and announce any orders for Superliner replacements. By then, there may be a better read on if any of the Superliner LD routes will be shutting down.

Amtrak does however, have a builder for the current 130 Viewliner II order. If they have to take out RRIF loans to replace the Amfleet IIs and expand the number of eastern single level LD cars, now is a very good time to do so. The interest rates on Treasury notes is astoundingly low. As of Sept. 2, the 10 year note was 2.02%, 20 years 2.92%, 30 years 3.32%. If you think that the overall inflation rate will average at least 3% annually for the next 10 years, the 10 year note is effectively a free loan. Not a bad time to add an order for 200 or more additional Viewliner IIs; most in coach configuration, but some cafe/diner-lites, lounge cars and a few more baggage, baggage-dorm, diners, sleeper cars. But the stand-off in Congress and the uncertainty means that Amtrak really can't place any additional LD equipment orders for now.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I'd be curious to hear what others are thinking, particularly if anyone has heard of any rumblings on the equipment front. It just seems like Amtrak is back into drift mode which is sad.

Amtrak isn't in drift mode so much as they're waiting to see how bad the severe budget cuts we voted for are going to hurt their bottom line. Ordering new hardware just before your budget is slashed and burned makes for some seriously bad financial planing. I'd say it's safe to assume no new Superliner hardware is going to be ordered anytime soon. Additional Surfliner orders may eventually be forthcoming but you probably won't be seeing those corridor cars on any long distance trains. Unless Amtrak California goes under or something. -_-

 

[Mackensen]

I've lost count how many cars are currently destroyed or seriously wreck damanged. I think at least two or three cars bought the farm with the truck collision on the CZ in Nevada, and suspect the baggage car on the CZ accident in Nebraska recently suffered frame damage. Interestingly enough, a week after the accident, on another board I saw pictures of the cars still sitting on sidings near the collision site in Nebraska. The baggage and two engines were upright but sitting on the ground near the tracks. Wondering why they haven't already been scooped up and sent in for shopping right away?

Possibly for the on-site accident investigation and insurance. Or more likely, BNSF is not going to let the completely derailed cars move on their tracks until they had been throughly examined.

I'd be curious to hear what others are thinking, particularly if anyone has heard of any rumblings on the equipment front. It just seems like Amtrak is back into drift mode which is sad.

I would not say that Amtrak is into drift mode on equipment orders. They have placed orders, have landed funding, or will be placing orders for:

-130 Viewliners 2s which will take care of the baggage car shortage and boost the eastern LD fleet

-70 ACS-64 electric locomotives (which they got a $562 million RRIF loan to pay for it)

-funding for 120 bi-level and around 33 diesel locomotives for the Midwest and California corridors

-plans to order 40 Acela coach cars to expand the 20 Acela trainsets.

As stated, Amtrak really can't do anything about placing orders for new Superliners until they know how much operational funding they will get in the FY2012 budget. Which could be an ugly budget number for the LD trains when the dust settles.

The other issue is that Amtrak will have to piggyback onto the 120 bi-level car order to place an order for cars in Superliner III sleeper, coach, diner, lounge configurations. That order has only just begun the long RFP, bid, review, decision, and negotiation process. Until a manufacturer for the bi-levels has been selected, Amtrak has to wait to place and announce any orders for Superliner replacements. By then, there may be a better read on if any of the Superliner LD routes will be shutting down.

Amtrak does however, have a builder for the current 130 Viewliner II order. If they have to take out RRIF loans to replace the Amfleet IIs and expand the number of eastern single level LD cars, now is a very good time to do so. The interest rates on Treasury notes is astoundingly low. As of Sept. 2, the 10 year note was 2.02%, 20 years 2.92%, 30 years 3.32%. If you think that the overall inflation rate will average at least 3% annually for the next 10 years, the 10 year note is effectively a free loan. Not a bad time to add an order for 200 or more additional Viewliner IIs; most in coach configuration, but some cafe/diner-lites, lounge cars and a few more baggage, baggage-dorm, diners, sleeper cars. But the stand-off in Congress and the uncertainty means that Amtrak really can't place any additional LD equipment orders for now.

What he said. I also think Amtrak working with BNSF and North Dakota to rehab the Devils Lake Subdivision shows that they're interested in long-distance trains. First things first. The equipment they're replacing now--single-level diners, baggage cars, electric locomotives--is the oldest or most problematic (HHP-8 anyone) in the fleet. The Superliners just aren't as important, and Amtrak can't do both at once.

 

[George B]

New Superliners? Hahahahahahahahah!

Hahahahahaha!

Get used to the Superliner Is and IIs…..that’s all you are going to see for the next 20 years. It’s cheaper to rebuild the interiors every 10 to 15 years. Plus, despite the large equipment losses, I believe 80-some-odd percent of the Superliner equipment is still in service.

Amtrak likes the big, heavy Superliners. The thin, flimsy cars most builders are manufacturing today don’t stand up too well in accidents. Amtrak hopes, and is prepared, to get 50 years out of the Superliners, and will keep them in service provided they can still put in interiors and replace trucks.

 

[VentureForth]

New Superliners? Hahahahahahahahah!

Hahahahahaha!

Get used to the Superliner Is and IIs…..that’s all you are going to see for the next 20 years. It’s cheaper to rebuild the interiors every 10 to 15 years. Plus, despite the large equipment losses, I believe 80-some-odd percent of the Superliner equipment is still in service.

Amtrak likes the big, heavy Superliners. The thin, flimsy cars most builders are manufacturing today don’t stand up too well in accidents. Amtrak hopes, and is prepared, to get 50 years out of the Superliners, and will keep them in service provided they can still put in interiors and replace trucks.

You know, I have always been a huge opponent of FRA Structural Requirements for Amtrak equipment. I've hated the fact that this equipment has to be so heavy and nearly unproducable by most rail companies out there today.

But after the Nevada Crash, where ONLY 6 people died, the structure continues to be a testimony to the strength of that shell.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

You know, I have always been a huge opponent of FRA Structural Requirements for Amtrak equipment. I've hated the fact that this equipment has to be so heavy and nearly unproducable by most rail companies out there today. But after the Nevada Crash, where ONLY 6 people died, the structure continues to be a testimony to the strength of that shell.

It's also a testimony to all the thousands of potential collision points that still exist in America. The reason other countries can get by without Superliner style carbodies is because they chose to spend their time and effort removing grade crossings, upgrading traffic control systems, and creating more attentive drivers. If our country's trucks and trains weren't one distracted phone call away from a fatal collision course we probably wouldn't need fortified tanks on rails in the first place. -_-

 

[George B]

New Superliners? Hahahahahahahahah!

Hahahahahaha!

Get used to the Superliner Is and IIs…..that’s all you are going to see for the next 20 years. It’s cheaper to rebuild the interiors every 10 to 15 years. Plus, despite the large equipment losses, I believe 80-some-odd percent of the Superliner equipment is still in service.

Amtrak likes the big, heavy Superliners. The thin, flimsy cars most builders are manufacturing today don’t stand up too well in accidents. Amtrak hopes, and is prepared, to get 50 years out of the Superliners, and will keep them in service provided they can still put in interiors and replace trucks.

You know, I have always been a huge opponent of FRA Structural Requirements for Amtrak equipment. I've hated the fact that this equipment has to be so heavy and nearly unproducable by most rail companies out there today.

But after the Nevada Crash, where ONLY 6 people died, the structure continues to be a testimony to the strength of that shell.

Agreed.

If that collision in Nevada had involved a Bombardier trainset like MetroLink uses, the casualties would have been tremendous. The 2008 Chatsworth collision would have paled in comparison.

 

[NY Penn]

You know, I have always been a huge opponent of FRA Structural Requirements for Amtrak equipment. I've hated the fact that this equipment has to be so heavy and nearly unproducable by most rail companies out there today. But after the Nevada Crash, where ONLY 6 people died, the structure continues to be a testimony to the strength of that shell.

It's also a testimony to all the thousands of potential collision points that still exist in America. The reason other countries can get by without Superliner style carbodies is because they chose to spend their time and effort removing grade crossings, upgrading traffic control systems, and creating more attentive drivers. If our country's trucks and trains weren't one distracted phone call away from a fatal collision course we probably wouldn't need fortified tanks on rails in the first place. -_-

That same logic led to the Eschede crash.

 

[jis]

Amtrak does however, have a builder for the current 130 Viewliner II order. If they have to take out RRIF loans to replace the Amfleet IIs and expand the number of eastern single level LD cars, now is a very good time to do so. The interest rates on Treasury notes is astoundingly low. As of Sept. 2, the 10 year note was 2.02%, 20 years 2.92%, 30 years 3.32%. If you think that the overall inflation rate will average at least 3% annually for the next 10 years, the 10 year note is effectively a free loan. Not a bad time to add an order for 200 or more additional Viewliner IIs; most in coach configuration, but some cafe/diner-lites, lounge cars and a few more baggage, baggage-dorm, diners, sleeper cars. But the stand-off in Congress and the uncertainty means that Amtrak really can't place any additional LD equipment orders for now.

Agree with the general sentiment. However, I do wonder if a future single level Coach order will be based on the Viewliner shell or the newly specified standard single level specification. One thing I have wondered is whether the Viewliner shell is more or less compliant with the single level car spec. haven't looked at it closely to know for sure this way or that.

One more thing that would be a matter of concern is the level of debt load that Amtrak should ideally be carrying and to what extent they would be able to pay the due payment from current cashflow and to what extent they would have to go to Congress to get money to pay the debt off. For the last several years they have been getting a special part of the the grant allocated purely for debt servicing.

As for LD equipment orders, I don;t think any further orders will be placed in the near future until a conclusion is reached in Congress about the future of LD service. At present there seems to be a consensus that corridor service should be supported somehow, the exact means YTBD. But the future of LD service is currently truly up in the air. More alarmingly, a few more accidents involving the Western fleet will inevitably mean some amount of service cutback, possibly involving the deployment of the Sunset Limited/Texas Eagle PIP, without going daily on the SAS - LAX segment etc. Frankly I am bracing for some real unpleasant stuff in the immediate future.

 

[George Harris]

When the new cars for the east coast trains are deliverd in a few years, Amtrak will think about getting funds to order a new generation of Superliners. Until that time they will keep rebuilding the Superliners I's. The Santa Fe cars are past the 50 year rule for passenger cars to be in service.

Do you have a "chapter and verse" for this 50 year rule? I have done some searching, admittedly not exhasutive, in the CFR and have not found it. (Finding things in teh CFR is at times necessary in my job, so I have some familiarity in plowing through it.) Curent date minus 50 equals 1961. I seriously doubt that most of teh diners rolling around in the eastern trains were built post-1961. Likewise, the Budd RDC's running around were most likely built pre 1961. Plus, some of the Santa Fe Hi-Levels are still running around in the western trains. I would suspect that these were built in the same time frame as the Hi-Level coaches.

 

[VentureForth]

I'm not aware of any Hi-Level equipment still being used by Amtrak. In fact, I don't believe any are on their current list of equipment. The last ones were used on the Heartland Flyer and were replaced a few years back with Superliners.

 

[NY Penn]

The PPCs on the Starlight, IIRC.

 

[George B]

The PPCs on the Starlight, IIRC.

Yes. Budd Hi-Levels.....built 1955-1956.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

You know, I have always been a huge opponent of FRA Structural Requirements for Amtrak equipment. I've hated the fact that this equipment has to be so heavy and nearly unproducable by most rail companies out there today. But after the Nevada Crash, where ONLY 6 people died, the structure continues to be a testimony to the strength of that shell.

It's also a testimony to all the thousands of potential collision points that still exist in America. The reason other countries can get by without Superliner style carbodies is because they chose to spend their time and effort removing grade crossings, upgrading traffic control systems, and creating more attentive drivers. If our country's trucks and trains weren't one distracted phone call away from a fatal collision course we probably wouldn't need fortified tanks on rails in the first place.

That same logic led to the Eschede crash.

A defect resulting from an insufficiently tested redesign of the wheels and a standard operating procedure that delayed reaction by the staff during crucial decision time led to the Eschede crash. The strength or fragility of the carbodies is likely to have been a contributing factor in the number and severity of injuries and fatalities, but it was by no means the cause of the crash. I did not mean to imply other countries have zero derailments. I only mean to point out that there are fewer opportunities for random collisions with commercial trucks and heavy machinery and that this helps explain why trains in many countries are not as heavily armored as Amtrak trains are.

 

[LM]

No such rule exists. 5 High level cars remain in service on the Coast Starlight as parlour cars as was mentioned elsewhere. These date to 1956(55 years old).

The 20 heritage diners are also older, ranging from 1958 (53 years old) back to 1948 (63 years old!)

 

[SP&S]

Indeed, the PPC's are ex Santa Fe high levels. And having enjoyed them a number of times, long may they run.

 

[afigg]

Amtrak isn't in drift mode so much as they're waiting to see how bad the severe budget cuts we voted for are going to hurt their bottom line. Ordering new hardware just before your budget is slashed and burned makes for some seriously bad financial planing. I'd say it's safe to assume no new Superliner hardware is going to be ordered anytime soon. Additional Surfliner orders may eventually be forthcoming but you probably won't be seeing those corridor cars on any long distance trains. Unless Amtrak California goes under or something. -_-

It is useful to read the Amtrak Fleet Strategy Plan V2. Version 2 was released back in February, before the funding shift from the FL HSR re-allocation to complete a minimum order of 120 bi-level corridor cars was awarded and likely written before Amtrak planners got a read on just how hostile many of the new members of the House were going to be. So, the schedule in the V2 plan is optimistic, but the document makes it clear that the Superliner replacements will be based on the new bi-level specifications.

Pasted excerpts from the V2 Plan:

"The next generation of single and bi-level passenger coaches and café cars is being designed to meet the needs of corridors and Long Distance service, so that a significant and ongoing volume of equipment orders will be available to stimulate the supplier base needed to support passenger rail expansion. In effect, the well defined Long Distance fleet replacement need reflected in this plan presents an economy of scale sufficient to attract a supplier base and provide equipment on which to “piggy-back” initial corridor equipment orders."

"The implementation of an acquisition program for bi-level corridor cars does not change the demand for bi-level long distance cars. The process for defining a specification for such cars is underway. The goal is to use as much of the specification for the corridor cars as practical in a car optimized for long distance service."

A major component of the fleet replacement plan is to not order the equipment in single big orders, but instead to spread the orders out in a more continuous replacement cycle to maintain a supplier base to build the cars and be able to add additional orders to expand the fleet capacity without getting stopped by start-up and NRE costs for a new order. The plan for the bi-level cars is a continuous replacement demand of approximately 35 cars per year. With a corridor bi-level order of 120 cars, Amtrak might do something such as put in a smaller order for 70 Superliner replacements as a 2 year delivery contract. Provided the status of the annual operating funding amounts for the LD trains is resolved by then. Which is a big if given the level of disagreement on just about everything in the current Congress. On the other hand, if a manufacturer is building 120 corridor bi-level coach cars, Amtrak would have several years to add their own order after most of the corridor bi-levels are delivered.

The option of getting federally backed RRIF loans at US Treasury notes market rates gives Amtrak a funding option they did not have or did not exploit until recently. Should be cheaper and with far fewer strings attached than commercial lease funding. Yea, it is new debt, but Amtrak may have no choice but to take out several billion plus in RRIF loans in the coming years.

 

[MikefromCrete]

I'd be curious to hear what others are thinking, particularly if anyone has heard of any rumblings on the equipment front. It just seems like Amtrak is back into drift mode which is sad.

Amtrak isn't in drift mode so much as they're waiting to see how bad the severe budget cuts we voted for are going to hurt their bottom line. Ordering new hardware just before your budget is slashed and burned makes for some seriously bad financial planing. I'd say it's safe to assume no new Superliner hardware is going to be ordered anytime soon. Additional Surfliner orders may eventually be forthcoming but you probably won't be seeing those corridor cars on any long distance trains. Unless Amtrak California goes under or something. -_-

I didn't vote for any severe budget cuts, Governor.

 

[MikefromCrete]

Interestingly enough, a week after the accident, on another board I saw pictures of the cars still sitting on sidings near the collision site in Nebraska. The baggage and two engines were upright but sitting on the ground near the tracks. Wondering why they haven't already been scooped up and sent in for shopping right away?

The reason they are still sitting there is because the NTSB and insurance investigators have to finish their work before the cars can be released.

The reason no more Superliners are being built is two-fold:

1. Money from Congress
2. There is no place to build them - the company that built them went out of business long ago!

If Congress said today "Here's $xxx Million to built new Superliners", by the time the design is decided, the bids go out, the plant is built, the workers are trained, etc... - you may see the first new car roll off the line in like 2020!

Weren't the Superliner II's built by Bombardier? They're still in business.