Now then, prognosticating about LD trains, I suspect the following are likely to happen within the next 5 or so years:
1. Pennsy run through section on the Cap, possibly the number of run through cars growing after inauguration if it catches on.
If the Pennsylvanian through section gets enough business, might possibly be enough to result in the restoration of the Three Rivers in some form with better equipment than it used to have. If PA is interested in a second daily PHL-PGH frequency (or 3rd by the time a Three Rivers resumption is floated), wonder if Amtrak could get PA to contribute to a Three Rivers LD train?
jis said:
2. Extension of the Palmetto at least to JAX.
3. Section of at least one Silver service going via the FEC JAX - MIA.
Extending the Palmetto to JAX would make for a very long day train. Unless it provides a connection of some sort to a FEC corridor service, a Palmetto to JAX might not provide that much utility. At that long a distance, may be better to add some sleepers, baggage-dorm and extend it overnight on the FEC to Miami.
jis said:
Less likely but possible:
1. Daily Cardinal - this could happen if Virginia specifically accelerates passing siding work on the BBRR.
Provided there are not major cuts to Amtrak subsidies this fall as a result of the election, I would give strong odds on the Cardinal going daily. Amtrak will have the Viewliners they need in several years. With NYP-WAS-CVS growing as a corridor, VA could use a daily Cardinal to provide daily afternoon service options to CVS. VA might also see utility in improved direct VA service from CVS to WV and to a lesser extent Chicago.
There is political support in WV for daily Cardinal service. Congressman Nick Rahall (D-WV) is the ranking Democrat on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. He has called for daily Cardinal service to his district multiple times. if the Democrats win the House this fall, Rahall is in line to become the Chairman of the committee in place of Chairman Mica. When the Chairman of a powerful House committee wants some small or medium sized projects that benefits his district, he usually gets what he wants.
There is the additional complication of Indiana state support for the Hoosier State by the start of FY14. VA is putting up 70% of the funds to fix up the Buckingham Branch. VA may be willing to put up 70% of the funds to extend some sidings to 8500' or longer on the BB, the question who provides the matching 30%? Depending on the cost of extending the sidings, Amtrak might be wise to kick in the 30%.
jis said:
2. Daily Sunset Limited - negotiations need to start instead of the parties sitting at their respective corners just glaring at each other.
UP is continuing to build out the double tracking from LA to El Paso; UP is also getting considerable federal and state money for track and flyover projects in CA. As the double tracking approaches completion, UP can't demand $750 million any more. Amtrak could restart the process of negotiation for a daily SL with more leverage. Maybe a high ranking politician could point out to UP that it had not been for Gadsden Purchase which was mostly done for the rail ROW, they would not have a rail line there. Some debts last a very long time.
jis said:
3. Boston and New York sections of the LSL running as separate trains, perhaps with some NY State and Massachusetts financial support.
Is there enough ridership from BOS to ALB to CHI to support a stand-alone LD train? The slow trip times from BOS to ALB are a major hindrance on this service. BOS to SPG will eventually see improvements, but SPG to ALB higher speed upgrades are not on the agenda. Two separate LD trains would speed both up though with the time savings in ALB by eliminating the splitting up and combining the consist.
jis said:
4. Resurrected Montrealer, only if both Vermont and Quebec step upto it.
VT is not going to provide state funding for an overnight train that goes through VT in the middle of the night. The Vermonter would get extended to Montreal on a daytime schedule and stay called the Vermonter.