Amtrak Posts 18th Consecutive Month of Ridership Gains

[transit54]

In what's quickly becoming a monthly phenomenon, Amtrak posted it's 18th straight month of ridership gains today. This April represented a 9.9% increase in ridership over the previous year.

Full details are available here:

http://www.amtrak.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobkey=id&blobwhere=1249226267586&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobheadername1=Content-disposition&blobheadervalue1=attachment;filename=Amtrak_ATK-11-071_Amtrak18ConsecutiveMonthsofGrowth.pdf (PDF)

 

[Acela150]

Just wait till May's numbers come out with all the Points run all of us AU members have been doing! :lol: :giggle:

 

[BobWeaver]

While ridership increases are certainly important, I usually pay more attention to the revenue trends in the monthly performance reports, since ridership increases don't really mean much if they don't correspond to increases in revenue. Since April's isn't published yet, I can only speak to March's report, which states that while systemwide ridership in March FY11 was up 5.5% against March FY11, systemwide revenue was up 9%. With that in mind, a ridership gain of 9.9% in April should surely produce some very nice revenue increases, likely to be over 10% over April FY10.

 

[Anderson]

Bob,

I'd put the over/under at 13% for a 9.9% ridership increase. On neutral ridership, I think Amtrak tends to add 2-3% per year via ticket price hikes...and 9% almost assuredly means more use of higher buckets as well. The NE Regional and the Chicago trains are all candidates for a "bucket squeeze" on ticket prices.

Edit: The only place I think you're likely to see any sort of real revenue trouble (i.e. revenue going upside down by a lot) is going to be the Empire Builder...and that train has just had an awful year.

 

[Shanghai]

Ross,

Thank you for the update on ridership. Very interesting stats.

You probably contributed to the 14.9% increase on the Ethan Allen

and 13.3% increase on the Vermonter!!

 

[BuzzKillington]

Some of the ridership increases could have to do with the fact that Amtrak just has more capacity right now due to the equipment restoration on the ARRA. If they've already burned through those cars and ridership is still skyrocketing, it might be more time to order more Long Distance and NEC coaches.

 

[transit54]

Ross,

Thank you for the update on ridership. Very interesting stats.

You probably contributed to the 14.9% increase on the Ethan Allen

and 13.3% increase on the Vermonter!!

I'll take a little credit for the Vermonter. I've actually never been on the Ethan Allen, as surprising as that may seem. I always take the Adirondack if I'm headed down that way.

I agree that May numbers should also be good, if my own riding is any indication. Between myself and others traveling with me, I'll be responsible for a bit over 20 trips on the VTer this month.

 

[jis]

Some of the ridership increases could have to do with the fact that Amtrak just has more capacity right now due to the equipment restoration on the ARRA. If they've already burned through those cars and ridership is still skyrocketing, it might be more time to order more Long Distance and NEC coaches.

The CASM and RASM numbers suggest that the train loads are not quite upto what it was during the car shortage days yet. So there is still some room for growth from the additional cars deployed before we hit the brick wall. Load factors are hovering around 50% level, but a better indicator is the RASM which is so far level or below last year.

 

[afigg]

There are some huge increases in ridership April 2010 to April 2011 in that summary.

NE Regional +13.3% (+3.5% for Oct-Apr FY11). The Regional ridership numbers have been fairly flat on growth for much of the FY, while Acela growth was larger earlier in the year. Might be some people switching from sold-out or only the top bucket price remaining Acelas to the Regionals. Still a big jump in Regional ridership, which is likely to put the NE Regionals into the black on operating costs.

Illini/Saluki +21.0% for April, +15.7% for Oct-Apr FY11.

Blue Water +28.4% for April, +26.5% for Oct-Apr FY11.

Washington-Lynchburg +40.4% for April (!!), +29.4% for Oct-Apr FY11. All hail the Lynchburger!

Washington-Newport News +25.0% for April, +18.2% for Oct-Apr FY11.

Hoosier State +27.0% for April, +11.6% for Oct-Apr FY11. Still small ridership numbers, even for a 4 day a week train. What would the ridership numbers be if there were decent trip times between Indianapolis & Chicago and 2-3 trains a day corridor service?

Piedmont +55.8% for April, +87.8% for Oct-Apr FY11. Pretty impressive considering that the 2nd Piedmont train was canceled 4 days a week for track work.

There are some trains that are down for April: Lincoln service, Empire Builder, CONO, Coast Starlight; but weather or track work is presumably the main reason.

$4 dollar a gallon gas and, I think in part, the publicity about Amtrak & the administration push for improved passenger rail, have done wonders for Amtrak's ridership numbers. And ticket revenue. If the April +9.9% increases stay at 8% or 9% the rest of the FY, Amtrak will easily exceed 30 million passengers and could come close to 31 million passengers for the FY.

Amtrak may have to revise the Fleet Strategy V2 plan from the very conservative +2% annual growth over the next decade or two. Amtrak, Illinois, and Michigan may also have to look at how to increase daily frequencies on their corridors ahead of the new bi-levels being delivered in 3-4 (?) years.

 

[trainviews]

Those are great numbers! I have to guess that they are a bit deceptive due to Easter falling in April this year, giving an extra bump. But still the 5%+ growth rate for the year seems to be holding steady systemwise, and ridership on a few other routes are suppressed due to floodings and track work.

As for the individual routes:

NE Regional +13.3% (+3.5% for Oct-Apr FY11). The Regional ridership numbers have been fairly flat on growth for much of the FY, while Acela growth was larger earlier in the year. Might be some people switching from sold-out or only the top bucket price remaining Acelas to the Regionals. Still a big jump in Regional ridership, which is likely to put the NE Regionals into the black on operating costs.

Sounds like a plausible explanation to why the growth has shifted from Acelas to Regionals. The latter had also been suffering from bus competition, but if it is people downgrading from the Acelas, buses are probably not that much of an attraction.

Washington-Lynchburg +40.4% for April (!!), +29.4% for Oct-Apr FY11. All hail the Lynchburger!Washington-Newport News +25.0% for April, +18.2% for Oct-Apr FY11.

Virginia lines are on a roll, and this provides excellent backing for train supporters in a state struggling to find a sustainable financing for its' services as well as for its' fairly ambitious plans for further development. If they get implemented it looks like Virginia is going to catch up with the first league in train transport states before long. And NC seems to follow suit.

Hoosier State +27.0% for April, +11.6% for Oct-Apr FY11. Still small ridership numbers, even for a 4 day a week train. What would the ridership numbers be if there were decent trip times between Indianapolis & Chicago and 2-3 trains a day corridor service?

That service looks ripe for an upgrade, but I haven't seen anything but loose plans in the overall Midwest rail strategy. So far all the action is on the St Louis, Michigan and Iowa services with Wisconsin screwing up their chance.

It is also remarkable to see that the troublesome winter for the Cascades apparently haven't driven riders away on the long term. As soon as a reliable service was up again, so was ridership - +6.9%

 

[RobertB]

I'm happy to see that the OKC-FTW Heartland Flyer is among the big gainers, 18.5% for April 2010-2011 and 10.3% for the six-month comparison. That should be helpful to advocates of extending the route to Kansas City and/or Tulsa.

Should I be concerned that the Texas Eagle is shown with a relatively paltry 3.7% gain for April, or should I be heartened that the six-month number is even better at 5.6%? Or is that even a useful number for a line that really has two entirely different personalities (daily CHI-San Antone, 3/wk San Antone to LA)?

And another newbie question: what are the "special trains" that are listed?

 

[TraneMan]

Good to see good numbers again... Again, too bad Empire Builder took a drop. :-(

 

[saxman]

Should I be concerned that the Texas Eagle is shown with a relatively paltry 3.7% gain for April, or should I be heartened that the six-month number is even better at 5.6%? Or is that even a useful number for a line that really has two entirely different personalities (daily CHI-San Antone, 3/wk San Antone to LA)?

Not really. The Texas Eagle has shown some really strong numbers before, so only being 3.7% is really not a bad thing. Keep in mind that the Eagle has been hampered by flooding up in Missouri and Arkansas and some days it did not run all the way through. Also many days, the Eagle is being rerouted between Chicago and St. Louis due to track work and not making any stops in between, so that probably brings down ridership that normally would have been there.

Lastly, I'm not sure whether or not passengers on the Eagle section between SAS and LAX are counted as Sunset Limited passengers or Texas Eagle passengers. As you can see, Sunset Ltd. numbers were up almost 13%! And that is a train that runs only 3 days a week!

I also find it interesting that in the Oct to Apr numbers, the highest ridership gains for the long distance trains are the two trains the run only 3 days a week. The Cardinal had the highest gain at 14.4% and the Sunset Ltd. at 12.7%! Can you imagine what these trains would do if they went daily?!

 

[haolerider]

I'm happy to see that the OKC-FTW Heartland Flyer is among the big gainers, 18.5% for April 2010-2011 and 10.3% for the six-month comparison. That should be helpful to advocates of extending the route to Kansas City and/or Tulsa.

Should I be concerned that the Texas Eagle is shown with a relatively paltry 3.7% gain for April, or should I be heartened that the six-month number is even better at 5.6%? Or is that even a useful number for a line that really has two entirely different personalities (daily CHI-San Antone, 3/wk San Antone to LA)?

And another newbie question: what are the "special trains" that are listed?

Special trains are primarly charters. There are a fair number of professional teams who use Amtrak in the NEC, because of the ability to stretch out and it is generally faster than busses and more comfortable than planes. There are certainly other types of charters around the country.

 

[HoosierStater]

Hoosier State +27.0% for April, +11.6% for Oct-Apr FY11. Still small ridership numbers, even for a 4 day a week train. What would the ridership numbers be if there were decent trip times between Indianapolis & Chicago and 2-3 trains a day corridor service?

Yay!

Seriously, though, it's serving Indy and Lafayette, and each of those cities (I know from experience) contributes nearly a full coach sometimes (especially weekends). Since there's only two coaches, there really can't be huge numbers in absolute terms. The numbers would be a good deal better with real corridor service at decent times (the times are set to correspond with the Cardinal's times, which are not really set for the Midwest part of the service, more for the ends), if for no other reason than people making a day trip out of it. Leave Indy at, say, 8AM, get to Chicago around noon, see a museum or something, leave CUS maybe 7 or 8, get in pretty late, but the same day, and you didn't have to rush. Or if that's still too quick, go up there, stay one night, come back.

Plus imagine the reverse traffic for, say, the Indy 500, or other sports events in Indy. There's real potential in that train.

The problem is that there's probably zero potential for the Indiana General Assembly funding any expansion, I doubt I ever heard of it coming up while I was living there.

 

[DAWall]

Hoosier State +27.0% for April, +11.6% for Oct-Apr FY11. Still small ridership numbers, even for a 4 day a week train. What would the ridership numbers be if there were decent trip times between Indianapolis & Chicago and 2-3 trains a day corridor service?

Yay!

Seriously, though, it's serving Indy and Lafayette, and each of those cities (I know from experience) contributes nearly a full coach sometimes (especially weekends). Since there's only two coaches, there really can't be huge numbers in absolute terms. The numbers would be a good deal better with real corridor service at decent times (the times are set to correspond with the Cardinal's times, which are not really set for the Midwest part of the service, more for the ends), if for no other reason than people making a day trip out of it. Leave Indy at, say, 8AM, get to Chicago around noon, see a museum or something, leave CUS maybe 7 or 8, get in pretty late, but the same day, and you didn't have to rush. Or if that's still too quick, go up there, stay one night, come back.

Plus imagine the reverse traffic for, say, the Indy 500, or other sports events in Indy. There's real potential in that train.

The problem is that there's probably zero potential for the Indiana General Assembly funding any expansion, I doubt I ever heard of it coming up while I was living there.

This is one Train that I wish Amtrak itself, would take more under its wing, and not require State money for upgrades. As stated, this train does good numbers, with zero amenities. Amtrak "needs" this train as long as Beech Grove is during work. Just think what it would do, with a lounge, or at the very least checked baggage for those connecting with trains in Chicago. This route just screams for a shorter schedule, and more frequent service. But as always, it's falling on deaf ears.

 

[Trogdor]

[The Hoosier State] is one Train that I wish Amtrak itself, would take more under its wing, and not require State money for upgrades. As stated, this train does good numbers, with zero amenities. Amtrak "needs" this train as long as Beech Grove is during work. Just think what it would do, with a lounge, or at the very least checked baggage for those connecting with trains in Chicago. This route just screams for a shorter schedule, and more frequent service. But as always, it's falling on deaf ears.

It's not a matter of deaf ears. It's a matter of you wishing Amtrak would spend money it doesn't have to upgrade tracks it doesn't own to increase service on a route that, according to PRIIA (i.e. the law), would have to be subsidized by a state that has shown virtually no interest in passenger rail, to operate a service that would, essentially, perform about the same as the Wolverine Service in terms of cost recovery.

 

[MikefromCrete]

There's no reason to believe the present administration and legislature in Indiana has any interest in any Amtrak service. At least Scott Walker sought funding for Hiawatha improvements. Mitch Daniels wouldn't entertain a thought of upgrading the Hoosier State. He probably doesn't even know it exists.

 

[PaulM]

So there is still some room for growth from the additional cars deployed before we hit the brick wall. Load factors are hovering around 50% level, but a better indicator is the RASM which is so far level or below last year.

Where did these additional cars get deployed? I know the IZ picked up a Horizon coach last summer that seems to be permanent. But I've traveled on a lot of long distance trains in the last year; and didn't see additional cars. A lot of TIGER symbols, but still the same size trains.

 

[BuzzKillington]

I know the LSL picked up an extra coach on the NY section.

 

[Anderson]

[The Hoosier State] is one Train that I wish Amtrak itself, would take more under its wing, and not require State money for upgrades. As stated, this train does good numbers, with zero amenities. Amtrak "needs" this train as long as Beech Grove is during work. Just think what it would do, with a lounge, or at the very least checked baggage for those connecting with trains in Chicago. This route just screams for a shorter schedule, and more frequent service. But as always, it's falling on deaf ears.

It's not a matter of deaf ears. It's a matter of you wishing Amtrak would spend money it doesn't have to upgrade tracks it doesn't own to increase service on a route that, according to PRIIA (i.e. the law), would have to be subsidized by a state that has shown virtually no interest in passenger rail, to operate a service that would, essentially, perform about the same as the Wolverine Service in terms of cost recovery.

Amtrak could probably "get away with" an extra coach on the train if demand dictated that they could fill it, and if they had the equipment laying around. I'm also wondering if it might behoove Amtrak to either stretch that trip to get more decent times on the western end, or to slide it around by a couple of hours.

On state services, I've been thinking...VA and NC really need to start coordinating on operations more: A lot of the improvements to both states' services invariably end up throwing one end of a route across the border sooner or later, and both seem to want to expand service.

 

[HoosierStater]

[The Hoosier State] is one Train that I wish Amtrak itself, would take more under its wing, and not require State money for upgrades. As stated, this train does good numbers, with zero amenities. Amtrak "needs" this train as long as Beech Grove is during work. Just think what it would do, with a lounge, or at the very least checked baggage for those connecting with trains in Chicago. This route just screams for a shorter schedule, and more frequent service. But as always, it's falling on deaf ears.

It's not a matter of deaf ears. It's a matter of you wishing Amtrak would spend money it doesn't have to upgrade tracks it doesn't own to increase service on a route that, according to PRIIA (i.e. the law), would have to be subsidized by a state that has shown virtually no interest in passenger rail, to operate a service that would, essentially, perform about the same as the Wolverine Service in terms of cost recovery.

Amtrak could probably "get away with" an extra coach on the train if demand dictated that they could fill it, and if they had the equipment laying around.

Well, they often fill the two they run now.

 

[Anderson]

Which is one of the two conditions. If the staffing requirements were the same (i.e. they could get away with the same number of OBS, conductor included), then the question becomes one of cars...and that is where I suspect the rub is.

 

[jis]

Which is one of the two conditions. If the staffing requirements were the same (i.e. they could get away with the same number of OBS, conductor included), then the question becomes one of cars...and that is where I suspect the rub is.

Strictly speaking Conductor (and Assistant Conductor(s)) is operating staff, not OBS.

 

[Oldsmoboi]

any hint on when the May numbers will be out?

It looks like we're going to be headed for another record June if the Capital Ltd is any indicator.

For the month of June PGH - CHI, there are only two days that have a roomette available both days high bucket - 6/19 and 6/22. Only one day with a bedroom available - 6/29. Six trains PGH - CHI are sold out completely. The 6/19 train is completely sold out in coach with that roomette being the only option. All coach seats from now into July are high bucket.

Similar story CHI-PGH, 6 trains coming back are sold out.