Northwest mudslide season begins

[Big Green Chauvanist]

20/20 hindsight: Would have been so much better to have built the line inland, when it could have easily been done. The area was very sparsely populated in the 1890's.

There were inland lines. One was the SP&S line, now the Burke-Gilman Trail. Another was an interurban line, described here: http://www.historyli...fm&File_Id=2667 Both are gone now. For more information, see the book Orphan Road: The Railroad Comes to Seattle, 1853-1911.

Correct. But I mean for the Great Northern transcontinental mainline--double track, wide right of way, roughly where I-5 Everett to Seattle is now, avoiding waterways Puget Sound, Lake Union and Lake Washington.

 

[zephyr17]

Right now I am waiting in the Everett station and the Seattle buses came in so it is a zoo in here. They announced that there was another slide this afternoon and the train is holding south of Edmonds while BNSF clears the debris and checks the tracks. At this time they are still expecting to run it up here.

Guess what, we had some more heavy rain today.

 

[CHamilton]

Right now I am waiting in the Everett station and the Seattle buses came in so it is a zoo in here. They announced that there was another slide this afternoon and the train is holding south of Edmonds while BNSF clears the debris and checks the tracks. At this time they are still expecting to run it up here.
 
Guess what, we had some more heavy rain today.

Yep. Even the Seattle Times' headline writers are getting tired of this.

Another day, another mudslide on BNSF tracks; passenger service canceled between Seattle and EverettA mudslide three miles south of Mukilteo has caused cancellation of Sounder Northline commuter trains and Amtrak service through at least Friday morning.

More than 30 mudslides have hit the tracks between Seattle and Everett since Thanksgiving, BNSF spokesman Gus Melonas told the Associated Press.

On Monday, a mudslide derailed a 66-car freight train south of Everett. One witness recorded video of the 75-foot-wide slide knocking over seven cars filled with general merchandise items such as soap and disinfectant.

If there aren’t any more mudslides on the BNSF Railway tracks between now and Friday, Friday evening passenger service will start again.

 

[NorthCoastHiawatha]

....and the rain just continues, my guess is there will be another slide to extend the cancellation through the weekend. To top that off my house is leaking.

 

[CHamilton]

....and the rain just continues, my guess is there will be another slide to extend the cancellation through the weekend. To top that off my house is leaking.

NCH, that is a total drag. It's pouring down here, too, but at least I'm staying dry. What do you say we all go out and push the clouds toward Canada or something?

 

[CHamilton]

Monday's high tide hits all-time recordHe knew the tide was high when it swamped neighborhoods and businesses around Puget Sound Monday, but one coastal engineer had no idea he was witnessing history.

Engineer David Michalson of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decided to check out the statistics on the high tide that was whipped up by wind and other conditions until it topped bulkheads around the area and almost topped the Ballard Locks.

When he saw the tide hit a level of 14.5 feet, he decided to compare to the historical data. What he found was a new record.

We double checked the numbers by contacting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) officials tide center. They confirmed it. Michalson was right - Monday’s tide broke the 1983 record by .2 feet and is the highest since they started keeping records 113 years ago.

Scientists with both NOAA and The Corps say with ocean levels in Seattle going up by about eight inches every 100 years, we can expect more records and more severe storms more often.

 

[EB_OBS]

The Empire Builder is currently still holding south of the slide area. This time there are apparantly several large trees in the mix across the tracks. It needs to be cleared before the train can get through, in addition the freight traffic is building up too.

 

[Nathanael]

Thanks for the link to the WSDOT blog with the slide zone map. Some notes on that:

-- of the 10 slide zones between Tacoma and Nisqually, I suspect some will be bypassed by the Pt Defiance Bypass (build it already!!!) but I don't know; I wish that were more detailed. How many will remain a problem?

-- the 8 slide zones south of Nisqually seem like a manageable problem, though again I'd love more detail.

-- in contrast Seattle to Everett seems completely and utterly hopeless -- 35 slide zones *and* the sea is rising over it? Service to Canada is going to need a new inland route, period. Start planning now.

 

[CHamilton]

Thanks for the link to the WSDOT blog with the slide zone map. Some notes on that:

-- of the 10 slide zones between Tacoma and Nisqually, I suspect some will be bypassed by the Pt Defiance Bypass (build it already!!!) but I don't know; I wish that were more detailed. How many will remain a problem?

I wondered about that myself, but haven't heard anything for sure. I assume that you are correct; some of them are likely to be bypassed.

-- the 8 slide zones south of Nisqually seem like a manageable problem, though again I'd love more detail.

-- in contrast Seattle to Everett seems completely and utterly hopeless -- 35 slide zones *and* the sea is rising over it? Service to Canada is going to need a new inland route, period. Start planning now.

Again, yes, you're right. But as has been previously pointed out, most of the previous RoWs are gone, and it will cost big bucks to replace them, and no one wants to pay the cost.

 

[AferVentus]

We are in the everett station, too. I hope they get it cleared, too. It better not be cancelled like a couple winters back. Granted none of this is their fault. *sigh*

 

[cirdan]

Again, yes, you're right. But as has been previously pointed out, most of the previous RoWs are gone, and it will cost big bucks to replace them, and no one wants to pay the cost.

Correction, nobody wants to pay the costs as long as they think somebody else might pick them up if they drag their feet enough.

 

[CHamilton]

Apparently, neither Amtrak nor BNSF are in the train business.

Amtrak Cascades ‏@Amtrak_CascadesCascades Train 500 is now terminated in Portland due to mechanical problem - Replacement Buses will operate Portland to Seattle.

 

[NorthCoastHiawatha]

Apparently, neither Amtrak nor BNSF are in the train business.

Amtrak Cascades ‏@Amtrak_CascadesCascades Train 500 is now terminated in Portland due to mechanical problem - Replacement Buses will operate Portland to Seattle.

Whats with the increase in mechanical problems lately? Ive noticed quite a number of them in the last month or so.

 

[CHamilton]

Mudslides Up Close
This week has been a miserable one for trains in the Seattle area. After two Monday mudslides, one near Nisqually and one near Everett, on Tuesday not a single Amtrak train arrived or departed King Street Station. Another mudslide yesterday has put North Sounder and Amtrak off until at least Friday. Mudslide prevention projects are still on the way thanks to stimulus dollars, but at this point these efforts seem meager compared to the enormity of the problem. At least 30 mudslides have occurred just since Thanksgiving.

 

[NorthCoastHiawatha]

Not just affecting trains now, I saw a report that 41 miles of Highway 101 and 6 miles of SR 106 are closed due to mudslides, downed trees, and apparently some ferry sailings were cancelled yesterday too. We really need some dry weather right about now.

 

[CHamilton]

Well, that's promising. At least they're not assuming that the world will end on 12/21. :wacko:

Amtrak Cascades ‏@Amtrak_Cascades

Service disruption extended between Seattle & Everett until 12/22/12 -9:40am additional mudslides. Replacement buses will be operate.

 

[NorthCoastHiawatha]

Well, that's promising. At least they're not assuming that the world will end on 12/21. :wacko:

Amtrak Cascades ‏@Amtrak_Cascades

Service disruption extended between Seattle & Everett until 12/22/12 -9:40am additional mudslides. Replacement buses will be operate.

and i'm guessing additional mudslides will close it through Christmas.

 

[George Harris]

Monday's high tide hits all-time recordHe knew the tide was high when it swamped neighborhoods and businesses around Puget Sound Monday, but one coastal engineer had no idea he was witnessing history.

Engineer David Michalson of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decided to check out the statistics on the high tide that was whipped up by wind and other conditions until it topped bulkheads around the area and almost topped the Ballard Locks.

When he saw the tide hit a level of 14.5 feet, he decided to compare to the historical data. What he found was a new record.

We double checked the numbers by contacting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) officials tide center. They confirmed it. Michalson was right - Monday’s tide broke the 1983 record by .2 feet and is the highest since they started keeping records 113 years ago.

Scientists with both NOAA and The Corps say with ocean levels in Seattle going up by about eight inches every 100 years, we can expect more records and more severe storms more often.

First: From the Seattle Times:

Monday's Seattle high tide, 14.51 feet, topped the previous record, 14.49 feet, set in January 1983, Rufo-Hill said.

The way I learned arithmatic, 14.51-14.49=0.02, so the high tied exceeded the previous record set 29 years ago by 0.02 feet. That is less than one inch. In fact, that is 1/4 inch. How can they even measure a TIDE with that level of precision? Then from apparently erroneous calculation they project a sea level rise of "8 inches every 100 years"? Be still my beating heart. Pardon me for being skeptical.

As to the guy that is shocked to be pumping water out due to high tide when the high tide is essentially the same as the record set 30 years ago, I can only say, you can't cure stupid. I do not understand these people that do not make sure they have a couple of feet at least of freeboard above the known high tides and waves.

 

[CHamilton]

Mudslides plague railroad tracks near MukilteoMUKILTEO, Wash. — Mudslides have been hitting the railroad tracks along Puget Sound between Mukilteo and Everett almost faster than Burlington Northern Santa Fe can clean them up.

Spokesman Gus Melonas (mel-OWN'-us) says after three slides overnight, there were six more Thursday morning. The slides were as big as 6 feet deep and 30 feet wide and carried 100-foot trees.

The railroad has equipment ready to clear the slides because the section of track was hit dozens of times last year and is vulnerable after recent heavy rains.

Melonas says freight trains are rolling again, but Sound Transit Sounder and Amtrak trains must wait 48 hours for safety. Rail passengers are bused during the moratorium.

In case you were wondering, Mukilteo is said to mean "good camping ground." Good place for trains, not so much.

 

[Phil S]

Monday's high tide hits all-time recordHe knew the tide was high when it swamped neighborhoods and businesses around Puget Sound Monday, but one coastal engineer had no idea he was witnessing history.

Engineer David Michalson of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decided to check out the statistics on the high tide that was whipped up by wind and other conditions until it topped bulkheads around the area and almost topped the Ballard Locks.

When he saw the tide hit a level of 14.5 feet, he decided to compare to the historical data. What he found was a new record.

We double checked the numbers by contacting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) officials tide center. They confirmed it. Michalson was right - Monday’s tide broke the 1983 record by .2 feet and is the highest since they started keeping records 113 years ago.

Scientists with both NOAA and The Corps say with ocean levels in Seattle going up by about eight inches every 100 years, we can expect more records and more severe storms more often.

First: From the Seattle Times:

Monday's Seattle high tide, 14.51 feet, topped the previous record, 14.49 feet, set in January 1983, Rufo-Hill said.

The way I learned arithmatic, 14.51-14.49=0.02, so the high tied exceeded the previous record set 29 years ago by 0.02 feet. That is less than one inch. In fact, that is 1/4 inch. How can they even measure a TIDE with that level of precision? Then from apparently erroneous calculation they project a sea level rise of "8 inches every 100 years"? Be still my beating heart. Pardon me for being skeptical.

As to the guy that is shocked to be pumping water out due to high tide when the high tide is essentially the same as the record set 30 years ago, I can only say, you can't cure stupid. I do not understand these people that do not make sure they have a couple of feet at least of freeboard above the known high tides and waves.

George - You raise good points but the answers may not be quite what you think. The instruments we have today are quite capable of measuring tides with both precision and accuracy of 1/4 inch. It takes some averaging and other statistical analysis but it can be done, and is done, and that sort of analysis of the environmental analysis underlies all manner of construction projects -- bridges, tunnels, docks, channel improvements, etc etc.

The more difficult problem is keeping the media under control. They don't understand about either precision or accuracy,and even less about uncertainty, and they have zero interest in learning. Those quotes of two sigificant digits after the decimal point need to be qualified but never will be in the mainstream media.

As for the predictions of 8"/yr , which are probably way low, these are based on statustical analysis of long-term data from all over the United States and, indeed, all over the globe. Before you go discounting these predicitons, maybe you should learn more about how they're done? With your engineering background you could likely help people do the analysis better. Seems like a much better us of your time to contribute to at least indentifying the problems, and maybe even solving them, then sittiing arround denying that sealevel is raising dangerously.

 

[CHamilton]

Pictures of today's (12/20) mudslides.

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Fallen-trees-mudslides-close-highways-near-Hood-Canal-184291241.html

http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/another-mudslide-halts-passenger-rail-traffic-betw/nTb8X/

 

[NorthCoastHiawatha]

Pictures of today's (12/20) mudslides.

http://www.komonews....-184291241.html

http://www.kirotv.co...fic-betw/nTb8X/

They don't look that bad, one doesn't even cover the outboard track.

 

[johnny.menhennet]

I think I saw something somewhere earlier in the thread about how a pax train was allowed to operate on the outer track in one of the incidents after a small slide with little impact. It may be possible that one slide not covering both could allows for some pax train operation, even at reduced speed. I would love to see that...

 

[Nathanael]

The way I learned arithmatic, 14.51-14.49=0.02, so the high tied exceeded the previous record set 29 years ago by 0.02 feet. That is less than one inch. In fact, that is 1/4 inch. How can they even measure a TIDE with that level of precision?

Using measurement devices. Perhaps you could consider doing some research; the precision of sea level measurement is actually very good and has been for decades.

 

[Trogdor]

I think I saw something somewhere earlier in the thread about how a pax train was allowed to operate on the outer track in one of the incidents after a small slide with little impact. It may be possible that one slide not covering both could allows for some pax train operation, even at reduced speed. I would love to see that...

It is true. If a small slide doesn't cover both tracks, the outer track is not embargoed for passenger train operation.